Post UP 2017: "Bihar Model" is outdated; Opposition must find a new template

Article first published in @abplive.in  (Photo courtesy PTI via ABPNews)



It has been a week since the Assembly election results that stunned the nation came out. Politicians and media were shocked by the now seemingly unstoppable rise of Prime Minister Narendra Modi. While most people are still trying to gather their wits to formulate a response to the stupendous victory of the BJP, the discourse has been dominated by theories on the future of the Congress and Rahul Gandhi.

No doubt there has been discussion on the fate of the major losers, namely the Samajwadi Party, BSP and AAP. But, not much attention has been paid to the reactions of other regional leaders and what this mandate means for them.


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Assembly 2017 Results: Time to look ahead

Article first published at +ABP NEWS curated in Sandip Ghose' Blog: Right Angle click here

Let us stop flogging the dead horse of demonetisation and not settle scores among each other about who had predicted what outcome. Face it, we were all off the mark to a greater or lesser extent including most Exit Pollsters. It is all par for the course in a 7-phase election, which can be as tricky as an eighteen-hole Golf course.

Several myths and assumptions have been broken, but again we should not self-flagellate ourselves by blowing our own fallacies or fantasies, as the case might be. So, focus on some home truths and move forward.

Rahul Gandhi and Akhilesh Yadav wasted precious time and energy on bashing Notebandi, while Captain Amarinder Singh who royally ignored it came home swimmingly. There is no value in a post-mortem on whether any of the proclaimed benefits of demonetisation have been achieved. It is history and certainly will be a non-issue in the 2019 elections. By then, even Amartya Sen (long live the revered Bharat Ratna) would also have forgotten about it.

But, what is here to stay is increased digitisation of the economy, Aadhar and PAN tagging of transactions leading to, whether we like it or not, greater transparency and, hopefully, higher tax collection. GST is going to become a reality and with increased numbers in the Rajya Sabha the government will not have to take recourse to money bills for passing every single unpopular legislation. So, stop whining about ‘tax-terrorism’ and brace up for some more tough economic measures – such as on Benami Property and unaccounted Gold.

Businessmen and Corporates who have been waiting for their turn in 2019, when the political parties have to come to them for funds, should do well to take note that demonetisation did not affect elections either in UP or Maharashtra. Narendra Modi’s definition of “Acche Din” may not be the same as what they were used to during previous dispensations.

It is time for the opposition, still tormented by thoughts of the resounding drubbing of May 2014, to realise that lungpower and disruptions of Parliament will not translate into votes.

Second, Narendra Modi and Amit Shah have long internalised the theme of Tagore’s “Ekla Chalo Re” realising that going forward it is going to be BJP Vs the Rest all the way. Therefore, while Prashant Kishor may get richer by advising parties on how to beat the BJP and more Harvard Professors may make a bee-line for the booming electoral market of India, Shah-Modi have already moved the game at least two notches higher.

In UP, Narendra Modi has conclusively demonstrated how it is possible to cut across caste, communities, geography and socio-economic strata by creating a larger national agenda.

After Maharashtra and UP, it can be safely said that BJP will not have to seek out allies for 2019 (even in the South) instead regional parties will woe BJP in the hope of a couple of berths at the centre.

One may not have to wait for too long to see how ripples of Uttar Pradesh victory into neighbouring Bihar, where Nitish Kumar is already seeing to be warming up towards Modi being one of the few in the opposition to find merit in Demonetisation.

It would also be fascinating to watch how the heads of some of the regional empires, who were dreaming of being the consensus candidate or playing kingmaker in the event of a third front cobbling up majority in 2019, will recalibrate their ambitions and strategy.

It will be a psychologists delight to study how these results affect Arvind Kejriwal , who was already behaving as a shadow Prime Minister.

However, what can be said for sure is, unless bitten by an overwhelming urge for self-destruction, no party will ally with Congress as an equal partner at least as long as Rahul Gandhi is at the helm.

These elections would have also have broken the reverie of those who were romanticising about the entry of Priyanka Vadra into politics. Her brief guest appearance in the Gandhi pocket boroughs of Amethi and Rae Bareli would have made her fans realise she is at best a Goddess with feet of clay. And, if one were to accept her party seniors’ claims that she had played a pivotal role in managing the war-room for UP, it sadly shows that she is no better than her brother in shaping political strategy.

On the other hand Captain Amarinder Singh has proven that the Dynasty may be Dead (or dying) but long lives the Royalty. One need not belabour the point that Congress could never have won Punjab without him. Whether other minor royals in the Congress, like Jyotiraditya Scindia, will take a cue from him only time can tell.

Finally, it can be said that manufactured controversies can create social media stir and get a few stray headlines in the inside pages of international media but leave greater India, which has many more existential issues to cope with, untouched.

The left-liberal media and intelligentsia should accept this and desist from making themselves even more irrelevant by opposing every move of the government for the heck of it.

Similarly, smart quips and sound-bytes may sound nice in TV studios media and get pats in the crony circuit, but do not cut ice with the voters.

At the end of the day, if the arguments are not substantive, Patillas are just empty vessels that make noise, which has little use for Mrs Obama or even a humble desi homemaker.

Watch out for Devendra Fadnavis, BJP's gen-next leader

Pic Courtesy +ABPLIVE 

This article was first published in +ABPLIVE

To read other published articles on politics by Sandip Ghose Click Here. His curated Blog: Right Angle has now shifted to www.sandipghose.com

Just when two forty-something scions of political dynasties are tripping over each other to promote themselves as youth icons, BJP has quietly gifted the country its own gen-next leader in Devendra Fadnavis.

Like in Uttar Pradesh now, if one recalls, the BJP had gone to polls in Maharashtra without a Chief Ministerial face. Even then, the strategy was a matter of intense debate and discussion. It was only towards the last lap of his campaigning, in Nagpur, that Narendra Modi had dropped a broad hint about Fadnavis being one of the probable names.

In fact, the triumvirate of Fadnavis, Khattar and Raghubar Das, all anointed as Chief Ministers within a gap of a few weeks towards the end of 2014, set some kind of a trend. They were all relatively unknown faces and somewhat surprise choices defying normal caste and region equations.
Of them, Fadnavis was more of an exception than others. Not only was Fadnavis younger than the rest, but he also did not have a strong constituency of his own to write home about. In a state like Maharashtra that boasts of being the commercial epicentre of the country money is a key determinant of political relevance. Therefore, even a first time young MLA like Pankaja Munde harboured ambition of becoming CM purely on the strength of inheriting her powerful father’s legacy. But, Fadnavis came from a modest background with a clean image and reputation of a sincere and dedicated ​party ​ worker. In some ways, he was a symbol of the industrious, educated, middle class Marathi ‘mulga’.

Putting Fadnavis at the helm in a large and complex state like Maharashtra was a huge gamble of Narendra Modi. His challenge was not only tackling a demanding and bickering partner like Shiv Sena but also managing heavy weights within his own party, which called for extra-ordinary maturity. Even though out of power and reduced almost to stubble, NCP and Congress in certain boroughs still remained forces to be reckoned with. It must be said to his credit that, Fadnavis navigated through the pitfalls and minefields with dexterity that is rare for a debutant.

One had observed signs of Fadnavis’ deft political management in the few by elections and local body polls over the last two years, but the recent BMC and Municipality Polls were undoubtedly his baptism by fire. While the BJP’s sweep of the rest of Maharashtra was less of a surprise for many, barring perhaps the traditional NCP stronghold of Pune, Pimpri-Chichwad, it was Mumbai that left everyone awestruck. It was truly a moment of Fadnavis coming of age.

But, if the results were stunning, the biggest statement of Fadnavis’ ascending stature was his magnanimous declaration of not contesting the mayoral position and offering outside support to Shiv Sena in forming the Brihan-Mumbai Municipal Council. At one stroke, he shed his “come lately” status to steal Uddhav Thackeray’s thunder and place himself on a higher pedestal. It was an unequivocal announcement that henceforth, Shiv Sena and other political parties have to deal with him on his own right and not as a surrogate of Modi and Amit Shah. The same message would have surely gone home also to his own senior colleagues and peers in the state BJP.

Maharashtra on a platter, just before the last lap of U P Elections, was the best return gift that Devendra Fadnavis could have given Narendra Modi for choosing him as the Chief Minister. But, in living up to the confidence reposed in him by​ ​ ​ Modi-Shah, Devendra Fadnavis has also started the generational shift in BJP that is required to reinvent the party and make it future ready.
This is a strong signal for other regional veterans who may have started taking their positions for granted, many of whom should start planning either for early superannuation or being bumped up to lofty but unimportant positions at the centre. In the event of BJP winning in Uttar Pradesh, which many are willing to bet upon today, it can be expected with reasonable certainty that Modi-Shah will spring another fresh face.

And, in the BJP ruled states that will go for polls in the coming two years, the incumbent Chief Ministers should not assume their indispensability. But, the challenge for Modi and Shah will be to find more like Fadnavis across the country, who will shape BJP 2.0 — that is more progressive and liberal. The young India, whom Modi has wooed so relentlessly, expects it of him. He can deliver on the promise only through a new breed of BJP leaders who shall walk the talk of governance, development and growth.

Originally published at www.abplive.in on March 5, 2017.

Demonetisation in Retrospect

Pic Courtesy +Mint 

This Blog has moved to Right Angle: www.sandipghose.com. To read article Click here

What happens when “post truth” meets statistics?

One enters a new world of counter-factual spins.

So, now that the third-quarter GDP estimates indicate growth at a healthy 7%, tighten your seat belts and get ready for a new wave of economic sophistry on demonetisation.

This writer has neither claim nor pretence of being an economist. However, as a roving marketer he has travelled through several states since demonetisation was announced on 8 November.

Like every other Indian, he, too, had some views on note bandi—based not on erudite economic theory but observations and anecdotal conversations during field trips, which he had penned down from time to time.

After some initial hesitation most political parties, save some notable exceptions like Nitish Kumar’s Janata Dal (United), had jumped on to the bandwagon of demonising demonetisation. A couple of leaders among them, notably Mamata Banerjee and Mayawati, were particularly strident in their protest.

Economists across the spectrum lambasted the move, except a few sarkari ones who were seen to be beholden to the government of the day.

The first signs that demonetisation might have been over-flogged came with the Maharashtra civic polls. Similar, murmurs were probably also emanating from the Uttar Pradesh campaign trail, which saw a subtle shift in the discourse to traditional topics like caste and community with the mandatory Om Ganeshaye Namah mention of development.

Also read: What explains 7% GDP growth despite Modi’s demonetisation drive?

We have already started hearing, the cautionary “don’t count your chickens too soon; wait for the Q4 estimates” kind of counsel that could well turn out to be true. The analogy of a speeding car brought to a screeching halt by firing at its wheels has quickly changed into the explanation of momentum carrying the juggernaut through an extra quarter. There may be some merit in that argument too, but it still does not explain the paradox fully.

So, where is the disconnect between theory and reality?

First, as this writer has argued in the past, it was erroneous to judge demonetisation through the single lens of economics. There were multiple dimensions to the decision of demonetisation, even if some appeared to have been added as afterthoughts. Therefore, one needed to view through a prism of economic, political and governance objectives.

Second, one cannot paint the entire country with a single brushstroke seeing the queues outside ATMs in Delhi. There are not only differences in the economies of states, say between Uttar Pradesh and Maharashtra, but also the attitude of people. For example, the public reaction to dry ATMs in south India was very different from those in Kolkata.

Similarly, one found traders in “rurban” Rajasthan and Madhya Pradesh to early adapters of digital transactions than, understandably, in rural belts of Hindi-heartland.

Finally, the pundits and politicians in their eagerness to trash demonetisation, forgot to factor in the resilience of the average Indian, whose DNA has been engineered to cope with shortages and scarcities. Living with the vagaries of nature and whims of the masters, they are used to long periods of hardship due to natural calamities, such as poor monsoon or floods, or man-made crises created by hoarding or chronically inefficient public distribution system. For them, demonetisation would be only a small speck in memory.

While the government may be guilty of trying to retrofit logic to justify a decision that seemed to be on the verge of backfiring, politicians and analysts critical of the government be can be accused of selectively ignoring or debunking indicators such as statistics of rabi sowing or record car sales in January. There was also little mention of the bumper kharif crops after a good monsoon in most parts of the country.

One read about alleged retrenchment of staff by a certain private bank, but the record profits declared by the same bank in the third quarter did not receive the same attention, just as largescale hiring by one of their foreign peers expanding their operations in India.

As a roving salesman what one observed in the behaviour of the rural consumer was postponement of discretionary purchases that normally follow a good harvest. A sort of Giffen effect kicked in. The credit cycle increased in the villages with delay in realisation of crop sale as well payment for seed purchases. There was also a readjustment in buying patterns with a move towards small unit size packs for many products. But, hardly any peer group competitors in the field talked of more than a 10% shortfall in their sales targets.

What, of course, did not happen is much of the channel stock up that traditionally takes place in December in anticipation of a demand surge post winter. This was more than compensated by a pick up in January, but without the increase in prices that usually accompanies it. Therefore, those looking for speculative gains and stock profit were left disappointed.

Sectors like real estate have indeed suffered. That is because it was the largest playground for cash transactions. In sharp contrast, one did not see much contraction in infrastructure work except in poll-bound states.

It would be disingenuous to say the economy is hunky-dory just as it would be dishonest to make doomsday predictions. At the same time, there may not be a sharp “rebound” as many were expecting in the fourth quarter—simply because there was no major dip in third quarter. The real action will start in FY 2017-18.

An iconic Bengali satirist wrote a story of an astrologer, who predicted to a person who had come to see him that the stars would not be favourable till his age of 38. Excited, the client asked what happens after 38? Pat replied the astrologer, “After that you will get used to bad times”.

Whether people have gotten used to demonetisation or not, it is stale news and it’s time that our politicians and economists start to look ahead. The next two years indeed holds a lot of promise and interesting possibilities for the Indian economy. With goods and services tax on the horizon and a thrust on infrastructure spend in the last lap of Modi government, we must make the most of it instead of being stuck in a chronic desi malady of naysaying.

Twin Blog: Economic Survey and Budget 2017

My twin blogs published in +ABPLIVE on 

Economic Survey : http://www.sandipghose.com/right-angle/2017/2/3/salvation-lies-in-infra-and-welfare-spending

Budget : http://www.sandipghose.com/right-angle/2017/2/3/modi-stays-the-course-pushes-strategic-reforms

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Aam-aadmi and Demonetisation

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The aam-aadmi must be rewarded for their travails and support of #DeMonetisation by lower taxes, interest rates and social security schemes:

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PV Narasimha Rao - PM of Destiny

Just finished reading Sanjaya Baru’s new book — on 1991 and P V Narasimha Rao. (Article first published in +Medium click here to read)

In an increasingly polarised (and biased) world of journalism — Baru is from a fast vanishing tribe, who are able to keep facts separate from opinions and loyalties. He is one of the remaining few — who believe in research and corroboration through reading and interviews and do not pass off anecdotal evidence (read gossip) as “inside knowledge”.

Being an economic journalist and a seasoned political observer — Baru was particularly well placed to write this book that is as much about Narasimha Rao as it is regarding the economic watershed in India’s post-independence history. 1991 could have been a turning point for Indian politics as well had the Dynasty not struck back with vengeance — reducing PVNR from a man of destiny to a footnote in history.

It is divine retribution, perhaps, that after 25 years — there is a reassessment of his contribution restoring in small measure his rightful place as one who has significantly steered the country onto a new trajectory despite odds.

I have already tweeted a lot of snippets from the book as I was reading it. It is a serious chronicle of a very important period that may not interest a lay reader looking for juicy tidbits of the PVNR years. Therefore, it may not become a best-seller like his previous book The Accidental Prime Minister — which had a lot of ‘masala’ as it were. But, this is serious stuff for the archives.

Finally — the question that I was left with when I put down the book — was a counter-factual one: Where would India have been today — if it did not have the Nehru — Gandhi Dynasty ruling it (directly or via proxy) for the better part of 70 years ? My simplistic conjecture in hindsight are as follows:

If Patel or someone other than Nehru had become the first Prime Minister — it is most likely he would have still followed the Soviet model of Planned Development with a dominance of Public Sector, while paying lip service to the concept of Mixed Economy. But, where they would have most likely differed is on Nehru’s policy on Kashmir and China and probably not made the same mistakes.

Besides, we would have seen stricter enforcement of both economic legislation as well as general law and order in the country — arguably with lesser corruption. Most importantly — as PM they would have been the “first among equals” and not created a cult like Nehru — to lay the seeds of four generations of Dynastic Rule to follow.

One common thread in Baru’s recent works — are two Congress Prime Ministers, who achieved whatever they did despite the Gandhi family (specifically Sonia Gandhi)’s shadow.

There is little reason to believe — if Lal Bahadur Shastri could take Pakistan head-on in 1965 — someone else in his place would not have acted similar to what Indira Gandhi did in 1971. Also, probably, there would not have been the Emergency of 1975.

Going by Baru’s account — the country would have been better off economically if guided by professional economists and not suffered from the compromises of populist policies for the survival of a single family.

Finally, just to please the Left Libs on my time-line, it might have prevented the Hindutva backlash and, therefore, the rise of a Narendra Modi.

#SanjayaBaru #PVNarasimhaRao #SoniaGandhi #NarendraModi

Uri and after

PAY BACK PAKISTAN WITH INTEREST, BUT NOT IN RUPEES

Picture Courtesy +ABPLIVE via AFP

Article first published in +ABPLIVE (Click here)

It has been ten days since the Uri Attacks and much water – and thankfully not blood – has flown down the Indus since then. The Prime Minister made a telling speech in Kozhikode and Sushma Swaraj, arguably one of the most articulate and effective External Affairs Minister India has had in recent times, was nuanced yet firm in her statement at the United Nations General Assembly.

Love him or hate him, if there is one thing politicians can learn from Narendra Modi it is how to chose his own time and place for response without getting bullied into premature reactions. If Manmohan Singh’s silences were called deafening, in contrast Modi’s deferred responses are calibrated for impact.


Discussing war room strategies and counter-terrorism options in television studios may be good for TRP, but that is not where or how the national security agenda is decided. In fact, intelligently used, public debates can be useful decoys for diverting public attention from real work that happens behind closed doors. It also helps in dissipating public angst, jingoistic rants and motivated criticism while the Government gets on with its job.

Only the uninitiated or those motivated to mislead would peddle the thought that the Government is blind to its own lapses and will not be subjecting itself (which includes the military and intelligence establishments) to critical scrutiny after such a major setback. Indeed, there is bound to be a major reappraisal of policy. But, it would be fanciful to expect public consultation on its security and intelligence report card.

Thus after a week more or less everyone realises that declaring ‘war’ with a politically unstable and militarily irresponsible nuclear neighbour cannot be the first course of action. While covert retaliation may be considered, on the surface diplomatic isolation and raising the international ante against the terror credentials of Pakistan are, perhaps, the most pragmatic way forward.

Prime Minister Modi threw the symbolic gauntlet of “war against poverty” to Pakistan at his party’s Kozhikode conclave. Though it may have sounded like glib rhetoric to change the discourse, there was a deeper political thought beneath the Modi’s fervent plea.

By all accounts after a bountiful monsoon and massive infrastructural spends ready on a platter the economy is poised for take off. This is precisely the moment when many detractors within and outside the country will try to derail the Government’s agenda. Frittering away an opportunity of a lifetime that could potentially place India at the high table of world commerce by a military adventure is not a trap that anyone can expect Modi to fall for.

Much is written and talked about India’s over-estimation of its own clout in the global geo-political arena. If we are being taken more seriously than before by the international powers it is largely because of our growing importance in world trade. Who will understand that better than a Gujarati?

Comparisons are drawn with how America’s resident Jewish population influences its policy towards Israel. It will be some time before Indian expatriates start wielding similar sway in the US Congress but that NRIs are a rising force is there for everyone to see. Therefore, it is not without reason that Modi has been wooing them so assiduously since becoming Prime Minister.

War would have been a tempting choice for Modi if he were in the last leg of office. The world over (including in India) military offensive has been used by many leaders with waning popularity or insecure standing to consolidate their position. But Modi should have no such insecurities and, therefore, can stay the course with confidence.

That a reference to Balochistan in the Prime Minister’s Independence Day address could rattle the world, including his opponents at home, goes to show how policies are beginning to make a difference.

Many would try to spoil the party as India inches slowly but surely towards its golden hour. Some would do it deliberately and others (who have little understanding of economics and go around making populist promises of loan waiver within 24 hours of coming to power) naively.

At the end of the day even Kashmiris understand which side of their bread is buttered. That is why it is all the more important not to get distracted from the larger economic and political agenda while biding our time to pay the enemy back with compounded interest but, perhaps, in a different currency — US Dollars or Chinese Yuan, not Indian Rupees.

Tags: #army  #IndianArmy #kozhikode #Pakistan #sushma swaraj #Uri attack

Tragedy at Uri

Keep the cheap shots — stand behind the government at this hour of crisis

Photo Courtesy +India Today 

Article first published in +Medium Click here

There are hardly any words to describe how heinous and reprehensible were the #UriAttacks. Surely, it could not have been the act of just any terrorist group without the active support of the establishment across the border — be it the #Pakistani Army and/or the ISI.

The tragedy for the families of the military personnel, who died in the attack can never be appreciated by civilians like us. It is a huge burden on the collective conscience of the nation that so many of our valiant soldiers have to lay down their lives fighting a war — that appears at least in the short run — to be a ‘no win’ battle.

Even without being a defence strategy expert — one can conjecture the attack was a ‘tit-for-tat’ move at India raising the ante on #Balochistan and isolate #Pakistan in recent engagements of the Prime Minister at a number of international fora.

Contrary to what our wrestlers and jingoists may have to say — everyone knows war is not an option between two nuclear powers — especially with one of them being a borderline rogue state.
We also have a flock of “doves” — advocating “political solution” without spelling out what that could be. Under the circumstances — the only option is trying to increase the “costs” for the other side. In that — India is at a handicap. That is because — unlike our neighbours — we do not have “non-state” actors like the Taliban and fanatical religious groups working for us. Covert intelligence operations cannot match the determination of suicidal Zihadis.

But, as a lay citizen, one wonders what can be done to minimise the damages on our side. Uri and before this Pathankot gives the impression of gaps in our defences and lapses in intelligence. Some reports seem to indicate that much more can be done to protect our forces and establishments in the border areas with better hardware and physical deterrents. That is the least we owe to our brave-hearts .

It is unfortunate that politicians and critics of the present government are trying to score points at this hour of crisis. Some are quoting (the letters — missing the ‘spirit’ of those comments) Narendra Modi’s indictment of the previous government for its failure to act against cross border terrorism. Snide digs are being made about the Prime Minister’s stop-over in Lahore last year. One senile and unemployed Congressi-Royalty even recalled the IC 814 Kandahar episode as the genesis of the current situation.

Temperatures are soaring in TV studios. Media is adding heat with alleged “leaks” from within the system. But, surely no one expects the government to carry out air-strikes in enemy territory or even drone attacks.

The only way forward is to systemically and concertedly isolate Pakistan on the international stage and build up pressure on the global biggies to bring them to the book. On that — the Narendra Modi team has done much more — within a short span of 2 years — than any other government (including Vajpayee’s) in the past. It is time people recognised that and stand firmly and unitedly behind the PM rather than having cheap pot-shots at him.


#Uri #Pakistan #UriAttacks #NarendraModi #Kashmir #Baramulla
IndiaPakistanTerrorismKashmirUriattacks

Delhi's real threat is not Dengue-Chikungunya but Kejriwal and AAP

Photo Courtesy: +ABPLIVE 

Article first published in +ABPLIVE Click here

In India, it is not news until it happens in the national capital. They say in the last two decades more people have died of malaria in West Bengal than the great famine of 1943. However, little has been written on it.

Similarly, one does not see too many statistics on the number of dengue and chikungunya deaths across the country. But, one death in Delhi and boom – the national media jumps upon it like the country is on fire. This is not to in anyway to discount the tragedy or the seriousness of the health scare that looms over the National Capital Region.

Arvind Kejriwal understands this better than most politicians and he has successfully manipulated it to his best advantage since the days of the Anna movement. He realised that an anashan in Jantar Mantar or Ram Lila Ground can get him a thousand times more mileage than a flop-show in a 100 acre Mumbai Maidan.

As a result, Kejriwal has managed to get disproportionate amount of airtime on television and column centimetres in print media, thanks to lazy journalism, than many more accomplished Chief Ministers and seasoned national leaders of long standing. No wonder he fancies himself as the virtual shadow Prime Minister with a licence to comment on anything and everything under the sun – including foreign affairs.

There are two issues at stake here, both affecting the residents of Delhi. First, of course, is the threat of a virtual epidemic which needs to be tackled on war footing. The second is the larger debate about governance in Delhi.

No matter what Kejriwal’s views may be about the powers and responsibilities of the Centre for the civic administration of Delhi, the Union Health Ministry cannot be rushing SOS teams to tackle local health issues of every State.

But, in its enthusiasm to trade blame with AAP, the BJP has missed a huge opportunity to retrieve the moral high ground from under Kejriwal’s hospital bed. It was like the BJP spokespersons trying to shoot mosquitoes in the air when it were the drains that needed cleaning up.

Where are the AAP volunteers who symbolically swept Delhi clean with “jhadus”, the BJP should have asked while hitting the streets with their own workers and RSS swayamsevaks to get MCD and NDMC do their job. That would have earned the BJP gratitude from the people of Delhi and exposed Kejriwal, not just in Delhi but also in Punjab and other States where he is contemplating an entry by AAP.

That Kejriwal is a shirker should have been known to any politically aware observer since he threw in the towel in AAP’s first term in Delhi. This impression was further reinforced when he chose to become a Chief Minister without portfolio.

He has spent his time blaming the Prime Minister and fighting with the LG when not travelling around the country to build a national image for himself as PM-in-Waiting or taking off for Vipasanna and naturopathy retreats. He did all this under the indulgent eyes of the media which for some inexplicable reason has developed a huge soft corner for him.

On his part Kejriwal has assiduously cultivated the media at large and some so-called five-star journalists in particular. Many media worthies have been favoured with coveted positions in educational and other institutions of the Delhi administration and there are rumours about one former editor becoming AAP’s Chief Ministerial face in a coastal State. Therefore, it came as a shocker when Kejriwal tweeted gutter muck at arguably one of the most formidable journalists of our times, Shekhar Gupta, and got into an unseemly spat with a TV anchor.

In the past Kejriwal has not always followed decorum or political etiquette in public life. He has hurled abuses at the Prime Minister. But in using a word like “Dalal” he has gone well beyond his own past record. At one level it reveals Kejriwal’s opinion about journalists, even very senior ones. Whether this has been formed by his own experience and how many “Dalals” masquerading as media doyens he has encountered or done business with, one cannot comment. But, it does smack of there being more to the implosion than can be seen on TV screens.

Here too Kejriwal is singled out for kid-glove treatment by his friends and admirers in the fourth estate. Imagine what the reactions would have been if another Chief Minister had made such a comment. Hell would have broken loose and would not have subsided until the person, however, high and mighty, apologised or expressed regret. The silence of the fraternity is intriguing, to say the least.

There are jokes doing the rounds on Whatsapp about how Kejriwal beat Pinocchio in a lying contest. Kejriwal seems to be on the path to disprove Abraham Lincoln’s famous quote, “You can’t fool all people all the time”.

One can understand if Narendra Modi is giving Kejriwal a long rope to hang himself. But, why is the media soft on him is not only “mushkil” to explain but almost “namumkin” to fathom.

Decoding Didi 2.0

Mamata Banerjee has hit a ‘sweet spot’ in her political career, but maintaining the momentum will be a challenge

Photo Courtesy: HBL and PTI

Article first published in @thehindubusinessline.com (Click here)

A young female foreign tourist with a backpack in Kolkata’s Maidan area incredulously watches an approaching tramcar. Next moment she is transported in a trance inside the tram — finding herself tangoing with Shah Rukh Khan with Tagore’s “Chini go, chini tomarey — ogo bideshini...” (I recognise you my lady from an alien land) playing in the background. As Shah Rukh drops her in a silhouette movement on his arm — a motley bunch of passengers in the tram clap and cheer them.

It is a commercial being shot for Tourism Bengal’s campaign — ‘The Sweetest Part of India’. But, seeing the rushes Didi is not impressed. She thinks there is too little of Sharukh in the film. Turning to the secretary, she chides him — “Meye ta ke kaat hotey dekhe tumee nijey o kaat hoye geley” (seeing the girl drop — your jaw dropped too) and orders the ad agency to go back to Mumbai and shoot some additional footage.

One cannot vouch for the veracity of this account. Possibly one of those many apocryphal stories. But it sounds quintessentially Mamata Banerjee. It is her grass-root sensibilities talking. Even if Sharukh is doing the commercial for free — the production company is charging a bomb and she wants value for money. As a consummate communicator she knows what the audience wants but now also understanding the importance of slick packaging.

In another talked about instance, the CM landed at a newly refurbished Government Tourist Lodge in the Dooars forests of North Bengal. Though she liked the changes carried out, the tariff bothered her, which she thought was too steep for the regular Bengali tourist. She at once called the chief of Tourism Corporation from her mobile and asked him to reconsider the rates — who dropped it pronto by a thousand rupees. Mamata knows the Bengalis love for travel and she also understands their budget constraints. More importantly she is clear — it is this socio economic segment, rather than the affluent urban elite, who form her second largest constituency after the rural poor.

The new avatar

So, what is different about Mamata Banerjee 2.0? First, she has read the victory as an unequivocal positive mandate for herself (unlike in the first term — when it was largely a backlash against the Left). She nipped the potential anti-incumbency factor of local Trinamool satraps by declaring herself as the virtual candidate in all 282 constituencies — making it a “Mamata Vs. the Rest” election. Her strategy was paid off by the phenomenal win. The message was clear: people still trust her and she cannot let them down.

This is reflected in the self-assured confidence she displays. Much of the old volatility is missing. Though there is the customary criticism of the opposition and centre — it is sans venom and vitriol. There is the willingness for pragmatic cooperation as seen during the GST voting. Scores are settled with adversaries (like a media baron) through silent signalling. Limits are being set for party strongmen — reminding them no one is indispensable.

Second, she also sees the second-term as an endorsement and shot in the arm for her larger national ambitions. The days of being a regional ally in a larger coalition are behind for her. She is not the one to remain ensconced in Kolkata as Didi to her “Maa, Maati, Manush” leaving Delhi to the big boys of the cow-belt in lieu of a few meaty portfolios for her party in the Union Cabinet like a DMK, RJD or SP. Now, she is ready to play for bigger stakes. As some of her close associates have already indicated – “do not rule out” her being a serious contender for the top job.

However, for making that audacious bid — she needs to establish at least two strong credentials. First, is a track record of good governance and development — a la Modi’s “Gujarat model”. The second, would be a presence — however token — beyond West Bengal. For both, she has less than three years in hand.

Instant redress

Bureaucrats close to Mamata Banerjee claim — the work done in the last five years, especially in the villages, is underestimated. Banerjee thinks that has been the main plank of her victory and it is the administration – rather than the politicians – who ensured delivery. Therefore, this time round she has increased her reliance on bureaucrats over politicians. Much talked about in government circles are her Saturday “classes” at her Kalighat residence — where she is known to often read the riot act to errant party members.

Taking a leaf from the book of neighbour Nitish Kumar — she travels to the districts with secretaries in tow. Issues raised by local constituents are assigned to concerned departments — who are held accountable for execution of projects. Decision is instant. Officers are enjoying the new empowerment.

Banerjee realises – quick wins will come from services. Hence, the emphases on sectors like tourism. But, she also knows people would like to see new industries on the ground. Attracting industrialists to come from outside and inviting FDI may be fashionable but not going to be easy. Many expect her to “bite the bullet” on land acquisition in her second term but, doubt if she will risk it before 2019.

Besides, land alone will not solve the problem of industrialisation. The introduction of GST may further whittle the incentive for setting up manufacturing base in Bengal. On software, Bengal has missed the bus long ago. Possibly, the Kerala model could also well work for Bengal — where the economy thrives on repatriated earnings and service industries like education, healthcare and tourism.

Add to that tea, food processing, handicrafts and fish (both sea and inland pisciculture) and one could have a winning formula. With investment in education — West Bengal can become a major exporter of skilled and knowledge workers. Health-care can attract medical tourists. These are areas where local entrepreneurs may also be more amenable to putting their money.

Ramping up tourism

It may be argued that some of these are already happening. Sadly, today West Bengal is a source of low-skilled manpower — among them a large number are just transiting population moving from across the border. Young Bengalis go to other states for higher education in engineering and medicine — then settle in new employment hubs like Bangalore, Hyderabad, Pune and Gurgaon. Older Bengalis flock to Chennai and Vellore for Medical treatment.

In tourism statistics Bengal claims to get higher number of Foreign Tourists than Kerala. But it is not difficult to guess where they come from. Domestic tourist numbers are high, too, but even they are largely intra-State budget travellers and pilgrims.

High-end tourism too will need investment and infrastructure. But, there are some low-hanging fruits — Sunderbans, Dooars and the Hills. Well marketed with a proper tourism policy and quality assurance process — Sharukh’s tango just may work.

Whether Bengal is the Sweetest Part of India or not Mamata has certainly hit a ‘sweet spot’ in her political career and she knows it. Renaming the state from West Bengal to Bangla is a declaration of her ascent.

It's now The Rest Vs BJP everywhere

Photo Courtesy +ABP NEWS 

Article first published in +ABP NEWS Click here to read

On arrival at Patna Airport on Friday, the notice of prohibition in the State at the entrance of the baggage claim area was a stark reminder – not of the day of abstinence lying ahead, but the reports of the Gopalgunj hooch tragedy arrests that were in the morning papers. There have been more than 30 reported deaths by illicit liquor since declaration of prohibition in April. In the light of this news, Lalu Prasad Yadav’s advice to drink toddy did not sound appealing or amusing at all.

After a few initial misadventures that invited exemplary consequences (like some well known businessmen arrested from a leading hotel in town where they had checked in for a private tippling session) the city gentry has largely reconciled to the reality of a long dry spell at home. But, what seems to bother them more are these incidents, which they see as symptoms of underworld resurgence in the State, where law and order is on a visible slide with political killings, shootouts, kidnapping and rape making a rapid comeback.

Oddly, among the people I met, mostly from the business community coming from upcountry towns and the rural belt, one sensed more a spirit of sad surrender to their fate rather than angst on the Government or any political party. The spirit was one of “yeh toh hona hi tha” (it had to happen). They blamed the situation on circumstances, saying it was a product of an alliance of disparate ideologies with the sole purpose of keeping the BJP out of power. It is the same motivation that will keep JDU, RJD and Congress together till 2019 despite their inner conflicts and contradictions. No one I came across expected a disintegration of the Government even if it continued to under-deliver on governance.

How would that manifest in BJP’s prospects in 2019? Much would depend, of course, on how “Brand Modi” fares in the second half of his term. If his ratings continue to remain high, Biharis may be inclined to vote very differently from how they did in the Assembly election, overriding caste equations. That is when the role of local dons and warlords will become critical. With Nitish Kumar making no secret of his ambition to shift court from Pataliputra to Indraprastha, it is doubtful whether his administration can come down too heavily on them as they had done during his first term.

Coming to Awadh, driving down from the new Chaudhary Charan Singh Airport (swanky in comparison to Patna’s modest Jai Prakash Narayan Hawai Adda) one cannot miss the election billboards and poll-kiosks already heralding the elections. Considering the polls are still at least six months away, one may think the political parties are peaking too early.

The most visible are of course Mayawati’s BSP (who have declared majority of their candidates) and Samajwadi Party. While the BSP hoardings prominently feature their supreme leader with the local candidate, Shivpal Yadav vies for space with Mulayam and Akhilesh Yadav in Samajwadi Party signage. Congress too is seeking its share of voice with Sheila Dikshit’s photo tucked below the foursome of Sonia Gandhi, Rahul Gandhi, Raj Babbar and Ghulam Nabi Azad. Significantly, Priyanka is so far absent in the deck.

Compared to the other three parties — BSP, SP and Congress — BJP’s visibility is practically nil. One can attribute it to two or three reasons. First, it is yet to finalise the CM face of the party. Second, it could be that it is keeping the powder dry for later use. Third, may be it is waiting for the dust to settle down after the Dalit controversy. Till now, BJP is making more news for defections from the BSP to its fold.

One common thread running through the three campaigns (of BSP, SP, Congress) is all have an eye on the Muslim vote. Among them, Mayawati has replaced a large number of her “upper caste” candidates with Muslim faces, hoping to dent into Mulayam’s stronghold. Congress has tried to add a further twist by ‘importing’ the “Brahmin Bahu”  Sheila Dixit, which many people scoff at as a declaration of political ‘bankruptcy’.

What this connotes clearly is that as in Bihar, BJP is also the common “Enemy No 1” in Uttar Pradesh.  Even three months ago, people were unwilling to bet on the BJP. Now they feel BJP’s prospects have perceptively improved. What has shifted the needle is the likely division of the Samajwadi Party’s Muslim base in favour BSP and at some places even the Congress.

This will not only result in greater consolidation of the upper caste vote but also create cracks in the core constituencies of BSP and SP for a number of reasons. First, voters are beginning to see through and become wary of the number games of caste and community in which they feel “used”. Second, there seems to be a fatigue in five-year cyclical rule of SP and BSP. This could go in favour of SP too, especially given Akhilesh’s publicity over drive on the performance of his Government – claiming transformation of ‘Uttar Pradesh’ to “Umeed O Ki Pradesh” – but some of it could accrue to BJP as well with appreciation in Narendra Modi’s political stock in coming months.

But, six months is a long time in politics and much can and will change in the coming days. A crucial decision point will be the declaration of BJP’s CM candidate, if and when they chose to go public with a name. But, there are also many surprise elements– such as flash points among Dalits or minorities – that can dramatically change the course of the match in its slog overs. Though it is still wishful thinking that a section of the Muslim vote will switch to BJP in the bargain.

Finally, in Jaipur one senses a clear change in mood of BJP from incipient despondency to renewed determination. The party has recognised the challenges of incumbency and decided to take it head on going forward. There are enough indications of Nagpur weighing in favour of the current leadership, starting with mega RSS national meets held few months back in Nagaur and to frequent visits of Nitin Gadkari to the State.

In contrast, Congress has so far been banking upon the disenchantment with Vasundhara Raje’s second term that has earned it some wins in recent elections of civic bodies and panchayats. But it still does not have much of on-ground traction to speak of. Finally, there will, as usual, be the question mark on who will lead the charge from the front – the gen next Sachin Pilot or an Ashok Gehlot called back from retirement, like Sheila Dikshit in UP, which will keep it a divided house.

Whether they win or lose, it is now decidedly BJP versus the rest across all these States. Prohibition may or may not last beyond three years in Bihar but BJP is in for the long haul and no one can wish them away in a hurry.

Narendra Modi’s Independence Day Speech

Jor Ka jhatka dhirey se laagey

Article first published in @medium.com Click here


This certainly was not Narendra Modi’s best speech — though it was not sleep inducing either as some have criticised. Yes, it was inordinately long — lasting nearly 90 minutes (as per the CJI’s watch). I have a defense for that — but will hold it for later.

I also respectfully disagree with the Chief Justice that, the Prime Minister should have dwelled on the problem of delay in appointment of judges in the higher judiciary. Pardon my saying so — it sounded almost like a Arvind Kejriwal-ish comment who thinks every issue of his concern should be on top of the PM’s agenda. Judges appointment is certainly an important issue — but not the only issue that is plaguing the judiciary. If the PM had indeed chosen to speak on what ails the judiciary — he might have opened a pandora’s box that may have consumed all of his hour and a half address to the nation.

In my limited view— all mass communication outreach of the Prime Minsiter — be it Mann Ki Baat, Townhall or Independence Day Speech — are guided by a common objective — to make himself heard to the “last man standing” (to use Modi’s own expression) without distortion by Mainstream Media (MSM) — who have not been exactly kind to him over nearly a decade and a half. Unfortunately, not all his colleagues in the party are capable or willing to carry the message to the people — so Narendra Modi has to take the task upon himself. Thus — if the trade off is between disappointing the elite audience or media celebrities and over-communicate on the government’s achievement to the nation at large — it is no surprise that he would gladly choose the latter over and over again. I for one would not double guess Modi’s judgement as a communicator.

However, even assuming the PM did manage to put Mr Kejriwal and some of his friends (like Saba Naqvi — who tweeted that she had indeed dozed off before the TV) to sleep — he did wake up the world with his gentle references to #Balochistan, #Gilgit and #POK. The redoubtable Shekhar Gupta was the first to tweet about the “Tectonic Shift” in India’s Baloch policy — to be followed by others in national and international media before Twitterati took over. By the evening — the TV Channels were primed up with the usual suspects from either side of the LOC. But, the most surprising comments came from Congress — whose former Foreign Minister , Salman Khurshid (of Biriyani in Jaipur fame) — commented Human Rights in Balochistan is an internal matter of #Pakistan.

That Narendra Modi could set the cat among the pigeons by such a light touch (a classic instance of “jor ka jhatka dhirey se laagey”) shows the class he has attained as a global geo-political player in such a short time. For those who actually heard the speech — all that the PM said was a “thank you” to the people of Balochistan, Gilgit and PoK for their “greetings” on #IndiaIndependenceDay. There was no reference to or comment on the internal situation at those places — to get people so worked up.

What he achieved in the process is to openly redefine India’s terms of engagement with Pakistan on Kashmir. Now — as the very knowledgeable and astute — former R&AW Chief commented — if we can only sustain this approach.

It is this one master-stroke alone that makes the Prime Minister’s speech on the 70th anniversary of India’s independence so significant and memorable.

Jai Hind !!

Modi Town Hall

Article first published in +ABP NEWS Click here


The genius of Prime Minister Narendra Modi lies in always staying two steps ahead of his rivals. While his opponents are still struggling with Social Media, aping his Chai Pe Charcha or Mann Ki Baat, he goes Boom! and raises the bar with a US style Town Hall.

Warming up by – now almost a ritual – some friendly trolling of the media, he also sent out a gentle signal that he can communicate to the masses over their head. To the opposition and the liberal chatterati, his message seemed to be: I decide the subject of my discourse, select topics that I wish to speak on, at a time of my choosing.

So he set the agenda, and how!

Little did anyone expect him to take the ‘gaurakshaks’ head-on. And what a pasting it was. There were no pious platitudes on respecting all religions or other such homilies. To say more cows die of consuming plastic bags and waste and asking State Governments to prepare dossiers on self-appointed ‘Gaurakshaks’ was a double masterstroke that would have left even his raucous critics gasping.

If he disappointed Omar Abdullah and his close friends in the media by not talking about the ‘Valley’, he must have done so advisedly. The Government is working as per a strategy in Jammu & Kashmir and the Prime Minister would certainly not like to derail it by making a comment which is bound to given a different spin by those, to borrow his phrase about ‘Gaurakshaks’, who have opened shops in the name of Kashmir. Sending Rajnath Singh to Pakistan for the SAARC, he has already driven home the message to the jihadists across the LoC – that the Government will play in Kashmir as per its own rules which are not part of regional dialogue.

By deftly swinging the focus to agriculture, handlooms (Khadi for Nation, Khadi for Fashion) , Smart Villages not just Smart Cities, he quietly pricked some holes in the balloons of his friends across the aisle in Parliament. So, Rahul Gandhi’s speechwriters have to think of something new in place of the tiresome suit-boot. Sonia Gandhi won’t be able to speak just about the plight of weavers on her next trip to Varanasi. And, Lalu Prasad has to come up with something smarter than his earlier ‘smart villages’ quip.


What makes Narendra Modi’s speeches and exhortations potent is the ring of passion and authenticity in whatever he speaks. This cannot be achieved by mere oratory alone unless there is a genuine conviction at the core. Those familiar with the thoughts and writings of Swami Vivekananda would know about his obsession with “preventive healthcare”.

Safe drinking water, hygienic cooking, healthy eating habits, yoga and physical exercise had engaged Vivekananda more than a century ago. One can decipher a distinct impression of his teachings in Narendra Modi’s views on these issues. For that, one does not need an Oxford Economist or Harvard-educated lawyer as Prime Minister, but someone with a heart and common sense.

Of course, one can almost visualise Sanjay Jha or someother bright young Congress spokesperson saying on TV – even Rahul Gandhi understands the importance of safe drinking water – as he always carries his bottle of Evian while visiting Dalit homes.

Talking of “last mile” first, the Prime Minister reminded the States of their responsibility to reach governance to the grass-roots. But, the message is equally relevant for his party colleagues and Sangh followers. Narendra Modi alone cannot keep shouting from the ramparts of Red Fort, Town Hall or Mann Ki Baat. It is also for them to carry the message to the last man in every town and village.

A Dummy's Guide to GST

GST breakthrough a watershed moment in India's Economic History

Photo courtesy +ABP NEWS 

Article first published in +ABP NEWS  Read here


The introduction of Goods and Services Tax, or GST, is arguably the most ambitious tax reform attempted by India since Independence. It aims at transforming the country into a common market, dissolving artificial economic barriers that create differential tax regimes for similar products and services across States.

It is a destination-based tax system that levies tax at the consumer end rather than at source and various stages of value-addition – which adds  layers of taxation ultimately inflating the cumulative tax impact.

Recognising the importance of Indirect Taxation in a country like India, where the Direct Taxation base is small, GST casts the net at the point of consumption or delivery of service while rationalising the total levy, merging multiple taxes such as Excise Duty, VAT, Service Tax, etc into one composite rate.

GST is designed to give a boost to manufacturing, not only by reducing the incidence of tax (from a current compounded level of 25-26% to 18%) but also increasing the physical and bureaucratic ease of inter-State movement.

At the same time there are concerns about States that are high on manufacturing losing out to States that are essentially consumption centres. This is addressed by guaranteeing States compensation for revenue loss for up to five years.

GST will also radically change the way distribution and transportation of goods happen that should benefit both consumers and manufacturers, ultimately also expanding markets and reach.

Costs of maintaining warehouses in each State and non value-adding transhipment will practically disappear, adding to the profitability of manufacturers while making it worthwhile for organised logistics companies to invest in more efficient vehicles and systems of transportation.

However, in the process of harmonisation, taxes on services may marginally increase from current levels, which would pinch the middle-classes more palpably, as eating out, travel and mobile bills become more expensive.


Similarly, some sectors – like textiles and branded jewellery that enjoy a lower tax rate today will get more expensive. Therefore, whether it will be perceived as “Acche Din” by the common man is doubtful as they are more prone to notice the taxes on service bills (example restaurants) while taxes get easily hidden in the MRP (cost of goods).

However, what the Government is banking upon is the overall boost to the economy. If indeed the expected 1-2% spurt in GDP does materialise, all will be forgiven.

While GST would be a major political victory for the Narendra Modi Government and take away its image about not being able to push through economic reforms, its implementation is not going to be a painless process.

Therefore, putting in place a grievance redress mechanism will be as important as careful chaperoning of the process of implementation. Any setback will be a bigger embarrassment than not being able to pass the Bill.

GST will be one achievement that would vindicate Narendra Modi’s unshakeable trust in Arun Jaitley whose singular contribution it would be for getting the main Opposition to the negotiating table.

But, it will also need all of Jaitley’s legal acumen to overcome the technical minefields that are strewn in the path of the GST’s roll-out.

Interestingly, States have insisted on exemption of alcohol for “human consumption” for understandable reasons. So there is no relief for the wicked.

Smriti Irani - the Bahu who all Bhabis Love to Hate

Picture Courtesy +DailyO India Today 

Article first published in +DailyO India Today (Click here)

No, Smriti Irani was not the best human resource development minister the country has had (though names of some of her predecessors like Arjun Singh also do not evoke much respect). Many think she was a walking-talking disaster and they are entitled to their opinion. But, there is absolutely no doubt that she has spunk. And, therein hangs a tale.

One cannot easily recall when the portfolio change of a Cabinet minister caused so much of elation and merriment - almost putting into shade all other changes in a mega Cabinet rejig. A leading daily carried the headline "Smriti Irani dropped", forgetting or ignoring the fact that she had been moved (or call it "shunted") to a ministry that oversees an industry that is the second largest employer in India after agriculture.

The liberal intellectual establishment and its friends in the media can barely hide their glee (not that they are trying particularly hard).

Interestingly, the nastiest jibes are coming from women - educated and accomplished by all accounts, some of them cultural czarinas in their own rights. Many of the quips and tweets are downright distasteful, which would have surely set the internet on fire if used against any of them.

One woman TV journalist was tickled to bits when a cerebral celebrity she was interviewing regaled her with an apocryphal anecdote of Irani snapping at an IIT director: "Why are you asking so many questions - are you a TV anchor?"

Front-page banner headline in mainstream newspapers calling her "Spinderella", which defies all standards of editorial decorum and should have left feminists fuming; have been lauded as "epic" by doyens of the profession.

Even before Irani became a minister, she has been a butt of jokes (such as those on the XXXL size of her dresses - the famous Fabindia episode in Goa) and people have not stopped short of making innuendos about her personal life.

Professional women who champion the cause of gender equality in all walks of life have made not-so-subtle suggestions about her rise to power for considerations other than merit. Similar insinuations about one of their ilk would have been met with angry outrage about misogyny in public life. The uncouth remarks about her by the likes of Sanjay Nirupam do not even merit mention.

So what makes Irani the "bahu" (advisedly not calling her "aunty") that all sisters-in-law love to hate?

Surely, she is not the first woman politician with a streak of arrogance - nay, haughtiness. There have been many queen bees of the political circuit. Granted, she did not have commensurate academic qualifications to be the HRD minister (if it is indeed a pre-requisite to head the ministry) and we shall not get into the predictable argument about the credentials of some other politicians of stature either.

The problem with Irani is similar to that of her perceived mentor - the prime minister himself. Both are considered as lacking political pedigree and outsiders in Delhi. They are first-timers in the government - compared to say a Sushma Swaraj or Arun Jaitley. Therefore, in her, opponents see a surrogate of Narendra Modi - and by attacking Irani they are hitting back at the big man by proxy.

Secondly, as the HRD minister, she was instrumental in striking at the root of the traditional bastions of academia and culture that have since independence remained the exclusive preserve of a privileged class nurtured in the Nehruvian ecosystem. That an alternate narrative could even exist was beyond the imagination of this pampered lot, who saw it almost as an assault on their fundamental right to life.

Thriving in the same symbiotic universe is a very influential community. This is the set that Modi recently referred to as a section of the media who never thought he could become the prime minister and is still not able to digest the fact.

Again by extension, the ire of this community falls on Irani. And, with good reason - for other than Modi himself - Irani is perhaps the only minister who has dared to take on the hostile media head-on. There are few as articulate as her in the BJP in one-on-one engagements with the media. Her sharp reactions on social media might appear petulant and immature drawing her more flak, but they never fail to rattle her detractors.

The cardinal sin Irani committed was not just contesting the scion of the Nehru-Gandhi dynasty in his family fiefdom, but bringing him precariously close to biting the dust. Even after the elections she has shown no signs of relenting and continues to nurture her adopted constituency with passion, much to the discomfort of the local political managers of the "family".

Again, besides Modi and BJP national president Amit Shah, she is the most vocal against the "dynasty", which resonates deeply in her stunning speeches in Parliament always hitting hard where it hurts the "family" most.

It is for this that she will remain a target as long as Modi himself remains a threat for the Gandhis. It would not be far-fetched to conjecture that the anti-Modi factions within the BJP and RSS have also been adding fuel to the fire to get even with the "boss".

But in their enthusiasm, most people have missed nuances and sub-texts that only some astute observers have picked up.First, by no means is textile a lightweight ministry. In the next phase of the Modi sarkar, economic reforms will be much more important than a cultural revolution. For that, someone bold and with high energy will be an asset, especially to bring in much needed labour reforms in the industry.

That doesn't mean the BJP's core ideological agenda will be abandoned. For that, a Prakash Javadekar groomed in RSS akharas, unlike a lateral entrant like Irani, is an apposite choice.

Finally, opposition and intrigue has only augmented Modi's meteoric rise. The same may also work for Irani, particularly if she is able to prove her worth as a star campaigner for the BJP in the upcoming Uttar Pradesh elections. Here, she can be the BJP's trump card and an answer to Priyanka Gandhi's charisma that the Congress is so heavily banking upon.

Even on Wednesday (July 6), when she was assuming office in the textile ministry, the media arrived in hordes. She did not miss the opportunity to have a dig at them: "It may be the first time that many of you have come to this ministry."

If not anybody else, at least the Banarasi sari weavers in Modi's constituency should be happy with her move to the textiles ministry.