Decoding Didi 2.0

Mamata Banerjee has hit a ‘sweet spot’ in her political career, but maintaining the momentum will be a challenge

Photo Courtesy: HBL and PTI

Article first published in @thehindubusinessline.com (Click here)

A young female foreign tourist with a backpack in Kolkata’s Maidan area incredulously watches an approaching tramcar. Next moment she is transported in a trance inside the tram — finding herself tangoing with Shah Rukh Khan with Tagore’s “Chini go, chini tomarey — ogo bideshini...” (I recognise you my lady from an alien land) playing in the background. As Shah Rukh drops her in a silhouette movement on his arm — a motley bunch of passengers in the tram clap and cheer them.

It is a commercial being shot for Tourism Bengal’s campaign — ‘The Sweetest Part of India’. But, seeing the rushes Didi is not impressed. She thinks there is too little of Sharukh in the film. Turning to the secretary, she chides him — “Meye ta ke kaat hotey dekhe tumee nijey o kaat hoye geley” (seeing the girl drop — your jaw dropped too) and orders the ad agency to go back to Mumbai and shoot some additional footage.

One cannot vouch for the veracity of this account. Possibly one of those many apocryphal stories. But it sounds quintessentially Mamata Banerjee. It is her grass-root sensibilities talking. Even if Sharukh is doing the commercial for free — the production company is charging a bomb and she wants value for money. As a consummate communicator she knows what the audience wants but now also understanding the importance of slick packaging.

In another talked about instance, the CM landed at a newly refurbished Government Tourist Lodge in the Dooars forests of North Bengal. Though she liked the changes carried out, the tariff bothered her, which she thought was too steep for the regular Bengali tourist. She at once called the chief of Tourism Corporation from her mobile and asked him to reconsider the rates — who dropped it pronto by a thousand rupees. Mamata knows the Bengalis love for travel and she also understands their budget constraints. More importantly she is clear — it is this socio economic segment, rather than the affluent urban elite, who form her second largest constituency after the rural poor.

The new avatar

So, what is different about Mamata Banerjee 2.0? First, she has read the victory as an unequivocal positive mandate for herself (unlike in the first term — when it was largely a backlash against the Left). She nipped the potential anti-incumbency factor of local Trinamool satraps by declaring herself as the virtual candidate in all 282 constituencies — making it a “Mamata Vs. the Rest” election. Her strategy was paid off by the phenomenal win. The message was clear: people still trust her and she cannot let them down.

This is reflected in the self-assured confidence she displays. Much of the old volatility is missing. Though there is the customary criticism of the opposition and centre — it is sans venom and vitriol. There is the willingness for pragmatic cooperation as seen during the GST voting. Scores are settled with adversaries (like a media baron) through silent signalling. Limits are being set for party strongmen — reminding them no one is indispensable.

Second, she also sees the second-term as an endorsement and shot in the arm for her larger national ambitions. The days of being a regional ally in a larger coalition are behind for her. She is not the one to remain ensconced in Kolkata as Didi to her “Maa, Maati, Manush” leaving Delhi to the big boys of the cow-belt in lieu of a few meaty portfolios for her party in the Union Cabinet like a DMK, RJD or SP. Now, she is ready to play for bigger stakes. As some of her close associates have already indicated – “do not rule out” her being a serious contender for the top job.

However, for making that audacious bid — she needs to establish at least two strong credentials. First, is a track record of good governance and development — a la Modi’s “Gujarat model”. The second, would be a presence — however token — beyond West Bengal. For both, she has less than three years in hand.

Instant redress

Bureaucrats close to Mamata Banerjee claim — the work done in the last five years, especially in the villages, is underestimated. Banerjee thinks that has been the main plank of her victory and it is the administration – rather than the politicians – who ensured delivery. Therefore, this time round she has increased her reliance on bureaucrats over politicians. Much talked about in government circles are her Saturday “classes” at her Kalighat residence — where she is known to often read the riot act to errant party members.

Taking a leaf from the book of neighbour Nitish Kumar — she travels to the districts with secretaries in tow. Issues raised by local constituents are assigned to concerned departments — who are held accountable for execution of projects. Decision is instant. Officers are enjoying the new empowerment.

Banerjee realises – quick wins will come from services. Hence, the emphases on sectors like tourism. But, she also knows people would like to see new industries on the ground. Attracting industrialists to come from outside and inviting FDI may be fashionable but not going to be easy. Many expect her to “bite the bullet” on land acquisition in her second term but, doubt if she will risk it before 2019.

Besides, land alone will not solve the problem of industrialisation. The introduction of GST may further whittle the incentive for setting up manufacturing base in Bengal. On software, Bengal has missed the bus long ago. Possibly, the Kerala model could also well work for Bengal — where the economy thrives on repatriated earnings and service industries like education, healthcare and tourism.

Add to that tea, food processing, handicrafts and fish (both sea and inland pisciculture) and one could have a winning formula. With investment in education — West Bengal can become a major exporter of skilled and knowledge workers. Health-care can attract medical tourists. These are areas where local entrepreneurs may also be more amenable to putting their money.

Ramping up tourism

It may be argued that some of these are already happening. Sadly, today West Bengal is a source of low-skilled manpower — among them a large number are just transiting population moving from across the border. Young Bengalis go to other states for higher education in engineering and medicine — then settle in new employment hubs like Bangalore, Hyderabad, Pune and Gurgaon. Older Bengalis flock to Chennai and Vellore for Medical treatment.

In tourism statistics Bengal claims to get higher number of Foreign Tourists than Kerala. But it is not difficult to guess where they come from. Domestic tourist numbers are high, too, but even they are largely intra-State budget travellers and pilgrims.

High-end tourism too will need investment and infrastructure. But, there are some low-hanging fruits — Sunderbans, Dooars and the Hills. Well marketed with a proper tourism policy and quality assurance process — Sharukh’s tango just may work.

Whether Bengal is the Sweetest Part of India or not Mamata has certainly hit a ‘sweet spot’ in her political career and she knows it. Renaming the state from West Bengal to Bangla is a declaration of her ascent.

It's now The Rest Vs BJP everywhere

Photo Courtesy +ABP NEWS 

Article first published in +ABP NEWS Click here to read

On arrival at Patna Airport on Friday, the notice of prohibition in the State at the entrance of the baggage claim area was a stark reminder – not of the day of abstinence lying ahead, but the reports of the Gopalgunj hooch tragedy arrests that were in the morning papers. There have been more than 30 reported deaths by illicit liquor since declaration of prohibition in April. In the light of this news, Lalu Prasad Yadav’s advice to drink toddy did not sound appealing or amusing at all.

After a few initial misadventures that invited exemplary consequences (like some well known businessmen arrested from a leading hotel in town where they had checked in for a private tippling session) the city gentry has largely reconciled to the reality of a long dry spell at home. But, what seems to bother them more are these incidents, which they see as symptoms of underworld resurgence in the State, where law and order is on a visible slide with political killings, shootouts, kidnapping and rape making a rapid comeback.

Oddly, among the people I met, mostly from the business community coming from upcountry towns and the rural belt, one sensed more a spirit of sad surrender to their fate rather than angst on the Government or any political party. The spirit was one of “yeh toh hona hi tha” (it had to happen). They blamed the situation on circumstances, saying it was a product of an alliance of disparate ideologies with the sole purpose of keeping the BJP out of power. It is the same motivation that will keep JDU, RJD and Congress together till 2019 despite their inner conflicts and contradictions. No one I came across expected a disintegration of the Government even if it continued to under-deliver on governance.

How would that manifest in BJP’s prospects in 2019? Much would depend, of course, on how “Brand Modi” fares in the second half of his term. If his ratings continue to remain high, Biharis may be inclined to vote very differently from how they did in the Assembly election, overriding caste equations. That is when the role of local dons and warlords will become critical. With Nitish Kumar making no secret of his ambition to shift court from Pataliputra to Indraprastha, it is doubtful whether his administration can come down too heavily on them as they had done during his first term.

Coming to Awadh, driving down from the new Chaudhary Charan Singh Airport (swanky in comparison to Patna’s modest Jai Prakash Narayan Hawai Adda) one cannot miss the election billboards and poll-kiosks already heralding the elections. Considering the polls are still at least six months away, one may think the political parties are peaking too early.

The most visible are of course Mayawati’s BSP (who have declared majority of their candidates) and Samajwadi Party. While the BSP hoardings prominently feature their supreme leader with the local candidate, Shivpal Yadav vies for space with Mulayam and Akhilesh Yadav in Samajwadi Party signage. Congress too is seeking its share of voice with Sheila Dikshit’s photo tucked below the foursome of Sonia Gandhi, Rahul Gandhi, Raj Babbar and Ghulam Nabi Azad. Significantly, Priyanka is so far absent in the deck.

Compared to the other three parties — BSP, SP and Congress — BJP’s visibility is practically nil. One can attribute it to two or three reasons. First, it is yet to finalise the CM face of the party. Second, it could be that it is keeping the powder dry for later use. Third, may be it is waiting for the dust to settle down after the Dalit controversy. Till now, BJP is making more news for defections from the BSP to its fold.

One common thread running through the three campaigns (of BSP, SP, Congress) is all have an eye on the Muslim vote. Among them, Mayawati has replaced a large number of her “upper caste” candidates with Muslim faces, hoping to dent into Mulayam’s stronghold. Congress has tried to add a further twist by ‘importing’ the “Brahmin Bahu”  Sheila Dixit, which many people scoff at as a declaration of political ‘bankruptcy’.

What this connotes clearly is that as in Bihar, BJP is also the common “Enemy No 1” in Uttar Pradesh.  Even three months ago, people were unwilling to bet on the BJP. Now they feel BJP’s prospects have perceptively improved. What has shifted the needle is the likely division of the Samajwadi Party’s Muslim base in favour BSP and at some places even the Congress.

This will not only result in greater consolidation of the upper caste vote but also create cracks in the core constituencies of BSP and SP for a number of reasons. First, voters are beginning to see through and become wary of the number games of caste and community in which they feel “used”. Second, there seems to be a fatigue in five-year cyclical rule of SP and BSP. This could go in favour of SP too, especially given Akhilesh’s publicity over drive on the performance of his Government – claiming transformation of ‘Uttar Pradesh’ to “Umeed O Ki Pradesh” – but some of it could accrue to BJP as well with appreciation in Narendra Modi’s political stock in coming months.

But, six months is a long time in politics and much can and will change in the coming days. A crucial decision point will be the declaration of BJP’s CM candidate, if and when they chose to go public with a name. But, there are also many surprise elements– such as flash points among Dalits or minorities – that can dramatically change the course of the match in its slog overs. Though it is still wishful thinking that a section of the Muslim vote will switch to BJP in the bargain.

Finally, in Jaipur one senses a clear change in mood of BJP from incipient despondency to renewed determination. The party has recognised the challenges of incumbency and decided to take it head on going forward. There are enough indications of Nagpur weighing in favour of the current leadership, starting with mega RSS national meets held few months back in Nagaur and to frequent visits of Nitin Gadkari to the State.

In contrast, Congress has so far been banking upon the disenchantment with Vasundhara Raje’s second term that has earned it some wins in recent elections of civic bodies and panchayats. But it still does not have much of on-ground traction to speak of. Finally, there will, as usual, be the question mark on who will lead the charge from the front – the gen next Sachin Pilot or an Ashok Gehlot called back from retirement, like Sheila Dikshit in UP, which will keep it a divided house.

Whether they win or lose, it is now decidedly BJP versus the rest across all these States. Prohibition may or may not last beyond three years in Bihar but BJP is in for the long haul and no one can wish them away in a hurry.

Modi Town Hall

Article first published in +ABP NEWS Click here


The genius of Prime Minister Narendra Modi lies in always staying two steps ahead of his rivals. While his opponents are still struggling with Social Media, aping his Chai Pe Charcha or Mann Ki Baat, he goes Boom! and raises the bar with a US style Town Hall.

Warming up by – now almost a ritual – some friendly trolling of the media, he also sent out a gentle signal that he can communicate to the masses over their head. To the opposition and the liberal chatterati, his message seemed to be: I decide the subject of my discourse, select topics that I wish to speak on, at a time of my choosing.

So he set the agenda, and how!

Little did anyone expect him to take the ‘gaurakshaks’ head-on. And what a pasting it was. There were no pious platitudes on respecting all religions or other such homilies. To say more cows die of consuming plastic bags and waste and asking State Governments to prepare dossiers on self-appointed ‘Gaurakshaks’ was a double masterstroke that would have left even his raucous critics gasping.

If he disappointed Omar Abdullah and his close friends in the media by not talking about the ‘Valley’, he must have done so advisedly. The Government is working as per a strategy in Jammu & Kashmir and the Prime Minister would certainly not like to derail it by making a comment which is bound to given a different spin by those, to borrow his phrase about ‘Gaurakshaks’, who have opened shops in the name of Kashmir. Sending Rajnath Singh to Pakistan for the SAARC, he has already driven home the message to the jihadists across the LoC – that the Government will play in Kashmir as per its own rules which are not part of regional dialogue.

By deftly swinging the focus to agriculture, handlooms (Khadi for Nation, Khadi for Fashion) , Smart Villages not just Smart Cities, he quietly pricked some holes in the balloons of his friends across the aisle in Parliament. So, Rahul Gandhi’s speechwriters have to think of something new in place of the tiresome suit-boot. Sonia Gandhi won’t be able to speak just about the plight of weavers on her next trip to Varanasi. And, Lalu Prasad has to come up with something smarter than his earlier ‘smart villages’ quip.


What makes Narendra Modi’s speeches and exhortations potent is the ring of passion and authenticity in whatever he speaks. This cannot be achieved by mere oratory alone unless there is a genuine conviction at the core. Those familiar with the thoughts and writings of Swami Vivekananda would know about his obsession with “preventive healthcare”.

Safe drinking water, hygienic cooking, healthy eating habits, yoga and physical exercise had engaged Vivekananda more than a century ago. One can decipher a distinct impression of his teachings in Narendra Modi’s views on these issues. For that, one does not need an Oxford Economist or Harvard-educated lawyer as Prime Minister, but someone with a heart and common sense.

Of course, one can almost visualise Sanjay Jha or someother bright young Congress spokesperson saying on TV – even Rahul Gandhi understands the importance of safe drinking water – as he always carries his bottle of Evian while visiting Dalit homes.

Talking of “last mile” first, the Prime Minister reminded the States of their responsibility to reach governance to the grass-roots. But, the message is equally relevant for his party colleagues and Sangh followers. Narendra Modi alone cannot keep shouting from the ramparts of Red Fort, Town Hall or Mann Ki Baat. It is also for them to carry the message to the last man in every town and village.

In the fatness of things

Tele Bhaja Shop in Kolkata
(photo courtesy: http://writethecalcuttadiaries.blogspot.in/2013/05/veritable-vintage.html)

Kerala has introduced a “Fat Tax” on “junk food” like Burgers and Pizzas. Before that I believe Bihar has already a levied a tax on Samosas. (Click here to read Chitra Narayanan’s sharp take in HBL). Both are odd. The first since – I am yet to meet an obese #Malayali. If Coconut Oil and Banana Chips can’t make them fat – nothing else will. And, taxing Samosas could actually threaten the fate of alliance in #Bihar. After all – who can forget Lalu Prasad’s famous declaration – “jab tak Samosa mein rahega aloo…..”

It seems the real reason behind these dyspeptic moves is to make up for the revenue loss on Excise Duty for liquor – post imposition of prohibition.

A few days ago – newspapers said #WestBengal Government was also mulling a liquor ban in the state. That set me wondering – what additional tax can Mamata Banerjee impose. A Fat Tax won’t work – because the problem of Bengalis is not ‘Fat’ but ‘Gaas’ (pronounced “gaash’).

Fried (allegdly) in 'Virgin' Diesel Oil
(photo courstesyhttp://kolkataphotoframes.blogspot.in/2013/07/fries-for-bengali-telebhaja.html

Now to control “Gaas” She may have to target “Mudi-Telebhaja-Chop” (Puffed Rice and Fritters fried in recycled Mustard Oil) – the staple evening snack of Ma, Maati, Manush. Those a little higher on the food chain – dig into the ubiquitous Chicken / Mutton Egg Rolls on the way back from with Paranthas fried in Virgin Diesel Oil, allegedly. But, that can’t work because – it will drive a large vote-bank – street hawkers and street corner Tele-bhaja vendors out of business.


But, eureka !! the “gorment” can think of levying a sur-charge on Gelusil, Zantac, Uni Enzyme and the whole range of antacids and digestive cures – the life line of Bhadraloks.

Why I shall still vote for Mamata in the coming Bengal elections !!

Diary of a reformed "Bhakt"

Article first published in +ABP NEWS Click here to read

Like many Bengalis, I was hugely hopeful when Mamata Banerjee stormed into the Red Bastille, as it were, ending over 30 years of Left hegemony in Bengal. Disillusionment and cynicism set in quickly as it appeared to be the same old local "Bangla" brew  being poured out of a green instead of red decanter. Then, came the light whiff of the Modi Tsunami of 2014 - raising right-wing expectations of a saffron surge in Bengal (incidentally, the birth-place of Shyama Prasad Mukherjee) to wash off the remnants of its Leftist past. I belonged to the last lot.

The enthusiasm was further fueled with BJP upping the ante post Lok Sabha elections and the Mamata government getting mired in scandals like Chit-Fund scams with heavy-weights like Mukul Roy threatening revolt. Though far from a revival of any sort - with a change of guard both at the centre and state CPIM was beginning to show some signs of recovery. But, soon the local bodies and Municipal polls - proved (allegations of violence and rigging notwithstanding) Mamata still held complete control of the state's political nerve-strings.

The biggest disappointment was, of course, the BJP. In any case, one expected little from a truncated Congress with its band of diminutive leaders and very few would like a return to the cadre-raj of CPIM. Besides, even the new CPIM leadership in the state - was well past their sell by date -  hopelessly caught in a time-warp -  both in their thinking and ideas. BJP's fizzled out in no time - for reasons that were a mystery to most. Whatever might have been the consideration of Modi-Shah leadership to go easy on the Trinamool government in West Bengal (perhaps, the need for support to get crucial legislation passed in Parliament) - the current BJP leadership in West Bengal cannot inspire any 'right-thinking' individual to vote for them. In these 2 years - no attempt has been made to build an organization or attract fresh talent into the party. 

The less said about the current state leadership the better. Sensible central minders like Siddharth Nath Singh have been pulled out and replaced with absentee land-lords of dubious distinction like Kailash Vijavargiya. For all practical purposes, BJP has given up West Bengal not just for the present but the foreseeable future. For now, Mamata looks invincible - straddling from the constituency abandoned by the Left across the "secular" divide to minorities vote-bank a la Lalu and Mulayam in the "cow-belt".

But, my vote for Mamata won't be a default option  for the lack of other alternatives. Truth be told - for the first time in perhaps 50 years - Bengal has a Chief Minister - who displays a sense of 'ownership' (not entitlement) and in her own way cares for the development of the state and its people - which is something that couldn't be said even for Jyoti Basu. Popular sops have become the order of the day and it would be unrealistic to expect any government to get out it in a hurry. But, when she takes up fights or drives a hard political bargain with the centre for funds - it is not solely to channelize it for party cadres like the CPIM. True, she hasn't turned Kolkata to London - but she must be credited with some sense of aesthetics for her well-meaning efforts at giving the city (and some other parts of the state) a facelift and makeover in the last 4 years. And, I would venture as far as to say - there is a soft glow of pride beginning to show on Bengalis, who were slipping into an identity crisis of sorts a few years ago. 

The primary criticism against Mamata would, of course, still be her failure to attract any sizeable industry to the state. This is a much more complex problem than one of land acquisition alone that would have thwarted any other government as well. The biggest issue is work culture that was systematically destroyed by the Left Front over 50 years (starting with the first United Front Government in the 60s) resulting in pathetic productivity of both white and grey collared workforce - that makes investors to shy away from Bengal. A workaholic and woman of action that she is, Mamata is not one to tolerate lethargy. But, it will take time to reengineer the DNA that has degenerated over half a decade.

However, industry alone can't be a solution in such a densely populated state with pressure on land further increasing with influx of population from across its eastern border. The days of labour intensive factories are long one. Today's automated production processes will create little direct employment. The challenge of re-skilling farm labour in other vocations is often glossed over. Given the work averse nature of the Bengalis - at least in the short term the ancillary employment opportunities will be taken over by migrant workers from neighbouring states - that will further compound the problem of agriculture displacement. This is a conundrum that successive governments will have to deal with. If at all, Mamata will be best placed to bite the bullet and take a tough call in her second term  - than either the BJP or CPIM if it were to return to power by any quirk of fate.

There is a lot of talk - much of it true - about the deteriorating law and order in the state and rise in corruption.  Those who have some first-hand idea of the Left rule - when the police was subservient  to the party command structure,  know it is as much of an exaggeration as reports on communal violence and intolerance  on the rise since BJP came to power.  I for one don't believe Mamata - being a stern disciplinarian -will allow the situation to get out of hand. Corruption has become a corollary of electoral politics. CPIM with its large cadre base  had a "low-cost model" of running the party and fighting elections. The same cannot be replicated by others - not even CPIM now that their cadre base has dissipated.  The scale of corruption is many times larger in states like Tamil Nadu, Maharashtra and Karnataka. But, it doesn't  show  - as there is simultaneous "value-creation". In West Bengal and other less affluent states of the East it hurts  - as the 'rent seekers' have to draw upon the already dwindling resources of the people. 

Above all this, Mamata is - arguably - the first Bengal CM who has made a place for herself on the national political scene on her own merits. Jyoti Basu owed his position largely to his stature in the party and S S Ray to the benevolence of Indira Gandhi. B C Roy was content to be a Bengali icon. Apart from arousing  Bengali sub-national pride -  people trust her as the only one capable - more than any other party's leader - of extracting a rightful share for Bengal - a state, they feel with some justification, that has been given the short-shrift by successive governments in Delhi since Independence.

That's why my vote will go to Mamata in the coming elections - with an apology note to Modi and Amit Shah.

Bihar Verdict - a Business Manager's view of what went wrong in Modi-Shah's game-plan

Never wear a suit more expensive than your boss'

(first published in +ABP NEWS )

Called up my Dad - recently turned 85 - to check his reaction on Bihar results. He quoted from Browning's Patriot "It was Roses, Roses all the way.....18 months ago...........". So, how did Modi and Amit Shah manage to fritter away a historic mandate in such a short time ? In the coming 24 hours and over the next several days there will be saturation analysis of what went wrong for BJP and worked in favour of the Mahagathbandhan - with many "I told you so pieces", as indeed epitaphs for Modi. Therefore, leaving the politics aside for the pundits let us spend a few minutes on the faulty mechanics and management of the BJP campaign.

There is no way Modi and Amit Shah could have underestimated the importance and challenge of Bihar. In fact, it is believed that lot of decisions of the government were taken (or hard calls and aggressive reforms were withheld for that matter) with the Bihar elections in mind - not just the Rs 1.25 lakh crore package declared just before the polls. It was apparent that, the government was banking on the Bihar Polls (followed by UP and Bengal next year) to shore up its strength in the Rajya Sabha for getting many crucial legislation through.

It may be argued that, the media and chattering classes had turned comprehensively against Modi and rooting for it to bite dust - but that was something Modi-Shah duo should have anticipated. They had successfully countered a more hostile media in the run up to the Lok sabha Polls - so where did their act fall apart this time around. It is easy to cook up conspiracy theories (and some of it may not be entirely unfounded) but again that is the job of seasoned campaigners - especially if they are from the ruling establishment - to tackle. How - therefore - did they lose the Midas touch ?

Right from day one - Modi government's handling of the media has been callous. What appeared deliberately calibrated (for reasons inexplicable - except, perhaps, for past grudges and arrogance  of winning the election 'despite them') at the start soon turned out to be plain incompetence. Last year - exactly at this time - one may recall, Modi made a feeble attempt to thaw the ice at BJP's "Diwali Party" - which was a heady selfie "kiss and make-up" moment for journalists - even those who had been critical of him in the past. But, that's where it ended. Somewhere, due to the "We know best" syndrome that afflicts this government - they seem to have dispensed with the professional help, that Modi-Shah were rumoured to have used for the Lok Sabha polls, just like they jettisoned Shah's own discovery - Prashant Kishor, whom Nitish was quick to pick up. Instead, Media Relations were left largely to someone like Arun Jaitley - who may be friendly with certain sections of the media (largely in the English speaking Lutyens' circuit - but an outsider for the vernacular and regional sphere) but isn't exactly a "media manager" - in the way, say an Ahmed Patel, of the Congress is.

In a recent piece in another publication, the author had discussed how "fist mover advantage" is short-lived in a competitive world - where people are quick to "copy with pride". Therefore, what has worked in the past - whether in Gujarat or the Lok Sabha Polls - loses its edge over time unless re-sharpened and re-engineered periodically.

But, the bigger task for any leader or manager is to manage expectations of stakeholders. here, Modi seems to have developed a disconnect between what he considered important for the electorate and what they had expected to see on the ground. Any new leader, need some quick wins to establish his or her credibility. This is where Modi failed miserably - partly due to the opposition tripping him in Parliament (like the Land Acquisition Bill and GST) but mainly due to his own misplaced priorities. Social welfare schemes like Jan Dhan Yojna and Atal Pension Yojna may be good talking points in the ramparts of the Red Fort on Independence Day - but doesn't cut much ice with people who have been spoilt by doles. So no amount of Neem quoting of Urea can take away the sting of Rs 200 /kg Arhar Daal, cut in agricultural subsidies and withholding release of MNREGA payments for fiscal prudence. Today, not only the masses expect immediate gratification - but even the young blue collared workers and business honchos are more concerned about the "here and now" rather than a handsome superannuation scheme.

Finally, as more and more professional Managers start working for Family Owned Enterprises, business schools are teaching how to balance the priorities of owners with that of the external stakeholders. Here Man Mohan Singh's job was easy - as he worked for a sole proprietor. Modi - on the other hand - has to work with a traditional HUF (Hindu United Family). A cardinal rule in business is never to wear a suit more expensive than your boss' and travel first-class when your austere malik flies "Cattle Class". Modi erred on both counts. MMS had no problem with the first - wearing the same blue turban for 10 years. Though it is alright for a Prime Minister to dress well - the blue suit everyone agrees was a little over the top.

Modi's foreign policy forays were no doubt phenomenal. But, not only that was a cause of envy for his opponents at home but also, one suspects, made some other nations wary of his meteoric rise in the international scene from being a pariah just 18 months ago. The bigger issue, however, this was the most visible part of his tenure so far - even if he was working 20 hours a day on all other fronts - which opposition could easily taunt with a rural electorate.

It is a dangerous thing - when the 'Malik - Parivaar' begins to lose confidence in the CEO - feeling he is not acting in their best interest. Since, he can't be sacked immediately - some of the family stalwarts - who want to see him fail start pulling the rug silently from under the feet. That to a large extent explains the reluctance of RSS to reign in their fringe elements or Mohan Bhagwat making irresponsible statements on the eve of crucial phases of the election. Even other members on the team - confused by mixed signals - of which way the wind is blowing begin to get disengaged though may appear to maintain a brave front outside. 

In what was always expected to be a polarised contest - driven by caste arithmetic - BJP's salvation rested on the last mile and last minute booth management by RSS cadres. It is questionable - if RSS was sincere about throwing their full weight behind Modi. Though they may not have wished to see him defeated - but perhaps a little mauled. It's another story - once the grip is loosened - the rope can slip much more than one had bargained for.

Modi and Shah need to seriously revisit their strategy going forward - if they don't want an encore of Browning's Patriot - "Thus I entered and thus I go" - not only to ensure a return in 2019 but, though harsh as it may sound, salvage the remaining 3 and half years of the current term.

For +ABP NEWS Blog please click here

Exit polls have the last laugh

Exit Polls are "Satta-Bazee" for the thinking individuals

(first published on the eve of Bihar Election Results in +DailyO India Today )

The "Ed Honcho" (as he likes to call himself) of this fine publication very perceptively tweeted - the only winners in "Exit Polls" are the pollsters themselves (paraphrased). I say, Exit Polls are 'thinking' people's Satta-Bazee. Or voyeuristic foreplay before the final results come in (no pun in that). For, Media, of course, it is a TRP generating machine - that makes armchair psephologists with 3 days shelf-life. Having burnt their fingers many times - many channels and newspapers now resort to quoting multiple surveys (including those of competitors) to hedge their bets (Heads I win, Tails you lose formula).

It has been written - how difficult it is to predict election outcomes in a country like India by polling a few thousand voters (even if techniques and methodologies have vastly improved over time). Then - there are always allegations of "fixed" polls (though the utility of it has been eliminated with the Election Commission banning polls in between phases of the election). But, in a nation hooked on to political reality shows Exit Polls still remain a draw - even if the final results turn out to be quite different.

Yet, Exit Polls can have a utility of their own if viewers and analysts don't get too obsessed with predictions. The final results can be a function of many collateral factors in our "first past the post" electoral system. These could range from last mile and last day voter mobilisation and "booth management" (often an euphemism for "booth capturing" or "rigging" as it is referred to in some parts of the country). It is here that Exit Polls can throw up insights that aren't apparent even in pre-poll surveys. Therefore, TV studio political pundits would do well not to get too carried away with the projections and instead dwell a little more on underlying messages and trends. 

It is for this the Bihar Election Exit Polls are significant - irrespective of which alliance wins and finally forms the government. There are several key lessons and learning to be taken out of the current elections - some of which can become standards for future elections in the country.

Notwithstanding how many polls predict victory of which party - it is quite clear the contest at the ground level was intensely fierce even if the final tally is wider (which may indeed be the case) than what people generally expect. Contrary to popular theory, it was BJP that started with a disadvantage if not as an underdog. Amit Shah and the BJP election strategists could not have been oblivious about the  "anti-incumbency" that had begun to weigh down Modi Government's credibility.  

BJP strategy was, therefore, based primarily on micro-planning and geo-mapping voter mobilisation by RSS cadres. The trump card was obviously Modi's star appeal. While BJP would surely have done their caste arithmetic - even after Lalu and Nitish joining hands (and with Mulayam - leaving the alliance) - they probably hoped that Lalu's "Yadav" votes won't automatically move en-masse to Nitish. Simultaneously - they would have been confident of their traditional vote bank of the Upper Castes remaining intact and Most Backward Castes (MBCs) swinging towards them aided by allies as Manjhi and Paswan.

The intention here is not to lapse into another electoral prediction. But, challenge a few premises - based on some of the trends that are coming to light. If voters went purely by caste considerations - Modi could never have made such a clean sweep in 2014 Lok Sabha polls. And, if indeed, there is some basis to the exit polls indicating traditional BJP voters have been lukewarm (especially in the 3rd phase - which was supposed to be BJP strongholds) - it does raise the question are voters willing to assert their voice and choice if not rising above but going beyond caste. So for the new discerning voter "Arhar (Daal)" prices take precedence over "Har-Har".

That despite the underlying rivalry and not sharing the dais in any rally - Lalu and Nitish didn't under-cut each other is because their respective constituents acted as the real glue.

In the same vein one begins to wonder - has the rural voter become much sharper not to be distracted by "manufactured" pre-poll controversies of cows and religion or promises of quotas and reservation. They have become much more realistic and wary of promises of development and governance - going by proven track record discounted for reasonable under-delivery and shortfall (2014 was perhaps - the lowest point in people's cynicism - when Modi arrived as a Messiah to sweep them of their feet. But, since then sanity has been restored). 

With improved security and better electoral administration (including holding polls in staggered phases to allow redeployment of forces) rigging has become less rampant - even if not fully eliminated - in most parts of the country to majorly affect state level results. 

Finally, technology, research and analytics have come to stay. Increasingly parties will become more sophisticate in using media - especially Social and Digital Media, Viral Word-of-Mouth campaigns and ambush strategies. BJP might have had a first mover advantage in 2014 - but such competitive edge don't last for more than one election as professionals like Prashant Kishore don't have any political loyalties and in no time many more PeeKays will be born.

As a political wise-crack remarked - elections mean "Gol-Maal". Let's take the "Maal" (or essence) from the surveys and leave the "gol" for the losers. To mildly twist the quote of the Prime Minister - "Elections Ayega, jayega" - aur Exit Polls be galat nikalte rahega".

Exit Polls are 'thinking people's' satta-bazee

The "Ed Honcho" (as he likes to call himself) of this fine publication very perceptively tweeted - the only winners in "Exit Polls" are the pollsters themselves (paraphrased). I say, Exit Polls are 'thinking' people's Satta-Bazee. Or voyeuristic foreplay before the final results come in (no pun in that). For, Media, of course, it is a TRP generating machine - that makes armchair psephologists with 3 days shelf-life. Having burnt their fingers many times - many channels and newspapers now resort to quoting multiple surveys (including those of competitors) to hedge their bets (Heads I win, Tails you lose formula).

It has been written - how difficult it is to predict election outcomes in a country like India by polling a few thousand voters (even if techniques and methodologies have vastly improved over time). Then - there are always allegations of "fixed" polls (though the utility of it has been eliminated with the Election Commission banning polls in between phases of the election). But, in a nation hooked on to political reality shows Exit Polls still remain a draw - even if the final results turn out to be quite different.

Yet, Exit Polls can have a utility of their own if viewers and analysts don't get too obsessed with predictions. The final results can be a function of many collateral factors in our "first past the post" electoral system. These could range from last mile and last day voter mobilisation and "booth management" (often an euphemism for "booth capturing" or "rigging" as it is referred to in some parts of the country). It is here that Exit Polls can throw up insights that aren't apparent even in pre-poll surveys. Therefore, TV studio political pundits would do well not to get too carried away with the projections and instead dwell a little more on underlying messages and trends. 

It is for this the Bihar Election Exit Polls are significant - irrespective of which alliance wins and finally forms the government. There are several key lessons and learning to be taken out of the current elections - some of which can become standards for future elections in the country.

Notwithstanding how many polls predict victory of which party - it is quite clear the contest at the ground level was intensely fierce even if the final tally is wider (which may indeed be the case) than what people generally expect. Contrary to popular theory, it was BJP that started with a disadvantage if not as an underdog. Amit Shah and the BJP election strategists could not have been oblivious about the  "anti-incumbency" that had begun to weigh down Modi Government's credibility.  

BJP strategy was, therefore, based primarily on micro-planning and geo-mapping voter mobilisation by RSS cadres. The trump card was obviously Modi's star appeal. While BJP would surely have done their caste arithmetic - even after Lalu and Nitish joining hands (and with Mulayam - leaving the alliance) - they probably hoped that Lalu's "Yadav" votes won't automatically move en-masse to Nitish. Simultaneously - they would have been confident of their traditional vote bank of the Upper Castes remaining intact and Most Backward Castes (MBCs) swinging towards them aided by allies as Manjhi and Paswan.

The intention here is not to lapse into another electoral prediction. But, challenge a few premises - based on some of the trends that are coming to light. If voters went purely by caste considerations - Modi could never have made such a clean sweep in 2014 Lok Sabha polls. And, if indeed, there is some basis to the exit polls indicating traditional BJP voters have been lukewarm (especially in the 3rd phase - which was supposed to be BJP strongholds) - it does raise the question are voters willing to assert their voice and choice if not rising above but going beyond caste. So for the new discerning voter "Arhar (Daal)" prices take precedence over "Har-Har".

That despite the underlying rivalry and not sharing the dais in any rally - Lalu and Nitish didn't under-cut each other is because their respective constituents acted as the real glue.

In the same vein one begins to wonder - has the rural voter become much sharper not to be distracted by "manufactured" pre-poll controversies of cows and religion or promises of quotas and reservation. They have become much more realistic and wary of promises of development and governance - going by proven track record discounted for reasonable under-delivery and shortfall (2014 was perhaps - the lowest point in people's cynicism - when Modi arrived as a Messiah to sweep them of their feet. But, since then sanity has been restored). 

With improved security and better electoral administration (including holding polls in staggered phases to allow redeployment of forces) rigging has become less rampant - even if not fully eliminated - in most parts of the country to majorly affect state level results. 

Finally, technology, research and analytics have come to stay. Increasingly parties will become more sophisticate in using media - especially Social and Digital Media, Viral Word-of-Mouth campaigns and ambush strategies. BJP might have had a first mover advantage in 2014 - but such competitive edge don't last for more than one election as professionals like Prashant Kishore don't have any political loyalties and in no time many more PeeKays will be born.

Article first published in +DailyO India Today Click here to read

Are sections of the media colluding to sabotage BJP's prospects in Bihar ?

Chanakya Vs Sun Tzu in Bihar

Is Bihar going to be Delhi Redux for Modi-Amit Shah duo? Suddenly, this question has gained currency after Round 2 of Bihar polls on October 16 - much of it in Maoist infested areas, where NDA was actually expected to do better. Some media stalwarts are going to the extent of predicting a ''total rout'' for BJP.  I have been travelling widely across Bihar over the last few months - my work often taking me to villages in the interiors.

The general feedback from South east region was BJP’s showing was on expected lines barring areas like Bhagalpur where wrong choice of candidates or in-fighting has been problematic. To balance, BJP seemed to have done well in erstwhile Communist bastions like Samastipur. Depending on who was asked about the final outcome, the answer was either a comfortable majority for NDA or a “tight fight”.

But on October 17 the Social Media went viral with speculation about BJP's certain defeat. Inferences were drawn from cancellation of Modi's rallies with the hash-tag #ModiQuitsBiharBattle trending on Twitter.  Newspapers published reports, quoting unnamed sources within the party, about BJP revising its strategy - bringing local leaders to the fore and the star duo of Modi-Shah taking a back-seat.  News of Amit Shah summoning Manohar Lal Khattar, Mahesh Sharma and Sakshi Maharaj to reprimand them for their 'beef' remarks was played up as a sign of BJP leadership's nervousness. Shatrughan Sinha's sly tweets about inner party dissensions added fuel to the fire.

What has caused this dramatic change of mood? Are these genuine reports or rumour mongering by well-oiled anti-Modi propaganda machine? I for one wouldn't rule out the latter and I think it will still be a close call. This might well change and we may witness a landslide one way or the other. But it will require an exceptionally high order of clairvoyance to write off the NDA altogether at this early juncture with 3 more rounds of polling still to go. That so many journalists and Social Media pundits are staking reputations – despite going wrong in the past - to join the chorus, smacks of a pickled agenda.

Only the politically gullible would believe that a master strategist like Amit Shah could have underestimated the challenge or importance for winning Bihar for Modi and his own political survival. If he cracked UP & Bihar so phenomenally in 2014 - he can't be one to make simplistic assumptions about Bihar's complex caste arithmetic. Yet, that does not make him infallible.

There are many parameters on which Amit Shah's strategy may have been off the mark. First, over obsession with 'win-ability' of candidates can create disaffection within. Murmurs of this were heard in the early days from people like R K Singh. Secondly, not projecting local leaders and naming a CM candidate and instead relying on one star campaigner can always be a double-edged sword. The law of diminishing returns was also bound to catch up with Modi's popularity but to what extent declaration a Bihar special package could neutralise this is a matter of conjecture. Similarly, induction of Jiten Ram Manjhi was always a gamble.

However, the bigger variable was the transferability of votes between Lalu Yadav and Nitish Kumar. There was never any doubt about the Muslim votes - but questions remain if they would split or be cast en-bloc in favour of the strongest non-NDA candidate. BJP clearly banked heavily on the positive Development and negative Jungle Raj plans.

BJP has been working on a 3 level top-down strategy. While Modi was supposed to set the agenda and create the ''wave'' at the state level - the message was expected to be carried forward by state and local leaders to the blocks and panchayats. Finally, "Booth Committees" were entrusted with the last mile mobilisation. Till a few days back - learned analysts argued how Modi had totally hijacked the discourse and Nitish was left defending his position. By all accounts, Modi's rallies were a huge draw compared to the modest crowds at Nitish' rally and at times, embarrassingly sparse gatherings of Lalu. The BJP state and local leadership were intensely campaigning in districts and blocks.

True that BJP's calculations may have gone awry. Firstly, there has been no dent in Nitish’ personal brand-equity and there is no real "anti-incumbency'' against him. Relatively, Lalu may have been discredited but for the Yadavs - Lalu may be a ''chara-chor'' but he's still one of us. ''Jungle Raj'' may be a big concern among the upper and more affluent classes - but not as much for the poor. For the overall improvement in law and order people credit Nitish. In contrast, while the impact of Mohan Bhagwat's remark, Dadri or Lalu's comment on beef eating practices is difficult to assess, these have the potential of snowballing into major factors.

A seasoned general always factors for a margin of error in strategy and is adept at doing mid-course corrections. It would be if Amit Shah doesn’t tweak his game-plan for the slog-overs. It indeed makes eminent sense not to exhaust Modi's fire-power so far ahead of the remaining 3 phases and hold the final salvos till the end - while allowing local leaders and cadres to do the ground work and build the tempo as it were. It would be prudent to do damage control and control irresponsible statements by sections within the party. But to read too much in this will be immature or motivated.

War-room managers of Nitish Kumar are entitled to deploy all legitimate means at their disposal to improve their prospects. It would indeed be a smart move if a few leaves have been taken from Sun Tzu's Book of War to spread panic among enemy ranks and outwitting the Chanakya or Amit Shah. Large sections of the mainstream media have to guard against becoming instruments of such strategy.

Article first published in +ABPLIVE Click here to read

Is the Modi-Shah juggernaut losing steam?

Let’s start closer to (my) home –Kolkata.

Since Amit Shah’s Burdwan Rally on January  20^th there is visible slow down in BJP’s aggression in West Bengal.  The announcement of big names crossing over from Trinamool and Congress to BJP has  been put on indefinite hold.  Even accepting – the government in Delhi has no control over the affairs of the CBI – the investigation seems to have cooled off a little with the release of one MP and the “non-arrest” of  Mukul Roy. It is quite likely that Madan Mitra, the other minister in custody, will also be soon out on bail – taking the heat off Mamata Banerjee.  The BJP has also been studiously cautious in associating with Roy or responding to his overtures.

Although the TMC MP’s have been belligerent in Parliament, BJP’s response to their shenanigans  have been somewhat muted with at least one instance of Modi trying to reach out to the Trinamool MPs during his reply to the debate on the President’s Address in Rajya Sabha.  The Mamata – Modi meeting that followed – despite the stiff body-language  caught on camera – was also significant. It’s possible that –  strategy has been recalibrated keeping in mind the challenges of the Budget Session – with several key legislations on the anvil.  But, it also can’t be ruled out that the moderation is also an outcome of a more realistic assessment of BJP’s immediate prospects in West Bengal after the recent Lok-Sabha and Assembly By-polls  (further corroborated by Opinion Polls for the forthcoming Kolkata Municipality Elections – where BJP is finding it difficult to even mobilise candidates). Now one hears PM  Modi may be visiting Kolkata soon to follow through on his meeting with Mamata Banerjee in Delhi.

In next door Bihar – one observes a similar slackening of tempo. First, the Manjhi experiment went horribly wrong. Although the Nitish – Lalu flirtation has fallen just short of consummation – it has brought both of them back to the centre-stage commanding greater share of voice and TRP.  At the same time – BJP leaders like Sushil Modi seem to have gone into hibernation. Other than an occasional sound-byte from  Shahnawaz Hussain  (Ravi Shankar Prasad usually speaks on  other issues – in any case his mass base in the state is questionable), Rajiv Rudy or Giriraj Singh – rest of BJP stalwarts from Bihar are deafeningly silent and happy to listen to Sharad Yadav holding forth on the relative physical attributes of women on  either side of the Vindhyas.

While it is undeniable that the Delhi rout was a major jolt for  Modi-Shah leadership – mercifully AAP’s own internecine war has shifted the focus from it and hopefully the initial embarrassment in Jammu and Kashmir has been – at least for the time being  – contained.  The news from old BJP ruled states like Chattisgarh and Madhya Pradesh are not much to write home about – with both Raman Singh and Shivraj Singh Chouhan under the shadow of scams (PDS and Recruitment) in their respective states.  The newly formed ministries in Jharkhand and Maharshtra are still settling down with their own set of challenges.  With Naveen Patnaik still going strong  Odisha remains largely out of bound for BJP at the moment.

It is conceivable that Modi-Shah have tactically decided to save the powder for another day while fighting more important battles in Parliament.  But, the overwhelming impression is their juggernaut has been stalled on its track.  While Modi can definitely chose his battles in a 5 year race – to win the war he would need to get the economy moving quickly.

PS: Since the article was published - the Government managed to get the crucial Coal and Mining Reforms Bills passed in the Rajya Sabha with the support of most major political parties - except Congress, the Left (CPIM + CPI) with the JDU and RJD staging a walk-out. However, the fate of the Land Acquisition Bill still hangs in balance.

Article first published in Swarajya Magazine (click here for original link)

"Vanishing" Poriborton

So Mamata completes a year in office.  In the coming days newspapers , magazines and television  will try to outdo one another with articles and features analyzing ad nauseam her  performance so far, to which – no doubt -  Op-Ed writers and “Bidwojon-s” of  the National Media will add their wisdom and pass  ‘interim’ judgment. So,  thought it is an opportune time for me to tuck-in my 2 penny bits to it before other illustrious and more qualified people get into the act.

A very senior Delhi-based columnist and media commentator, a non-resident Bong, has been commissioned by a top national magazine to do such a piece on Trinamool’s 365 days in power. I was mildly flattered, when he invited me for a beer at one of the clubs – to have my take on some of the issues. And, it took  me just a swig of Kingfisher to launch into my pet rant on everything that Mamata and TMC seem to be doing wrong.

But, about half-way through our conversation, I paused like a subject on a therapist’s chair, and asked – wait a minute, are we being entirely fair to her? After a while – we both agreed, it’s probably too early to write her off yet and the jury is still out.  Disenchantment is a creeping process – though it may not take another 34 years, as it did to throw CPIM out – it’ll be some more time before it turns into a tide against her.  For that to happen earlier, she has to commit some terrible blunders – which she probably won’t, as – at the end of the day – she has too much political horse-sense to know she can’t mess around with her constituency beyond a point.

Megalomania or Incipient Paranoia

Yet, she is beginning to show disturbing signs of megalomania. Her intolerance to criticism, vulnerability to flattery and sycophancy  and – what the famous Ashish Nandy calls  - incipient “paranoia” (they want to “vanish” me ), reveals some shades of Indira Gandhi in the height of power. Though, it would be rather harsh to call them fascist traits as few die-hard cynics might tend to do.

Again like Indira Gandhi followed a different agenda at home and abroad – Mamata has a different line in the state and another one for the centre. When in Delhi, she flirts with non-Congress CMs to play the ‘federalism’ card (NCTC) , takes adversarial positions with the Centre on matters of fund allocation to the state and policy issues such as FDI in Retail. She wants to be consulted foreign policy issues with neighbours (Bangladesh - Teesta).  These too are reminiscent of Mrs Gandhi’s and parallels can be drawn with her dalliance with the Soviets and the “Non-aligned” Block or trying to prop up SAARC.  Back in Calcutta – she reverts to IG’s “Garibi Hatao” like populist chant of “Ma, Mati, Manush”.

Take a deep breath

There’s absolutely no denying , what brought  Mamata to power is her  call for change – “Poriborton” . But, while capitalizing on it for electoral success – she hasn’t been able to harness the goodwill, enthusiasm and positive energy of the masses for transformation of the state.  Something that, a Nitish Kumar in Bihar and Narendra Modi has been able to do. Today, one can feel a palpable pride among the Biharis – which has also been transmitted to the Diaspora living across the country and even overseas. In Gujrat too – the heightened sense of  chauvinism fuelled by the  state’s success in almost every field  is there for all to see – not just at the Vibrant Gujrat summits or the Amitabh Bacchan’s “Breathe in a bit of Gujrat’ TVCs.  ( See one by clicking here http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VdcEqUtTcfc )

Attitude is everything

What is needed to transform Bengal – is a change in the work culture and attitude of people. Industry and investment will come in only with that – not by trying to market the state by signing up Sharukh Khan as Brand Ambassador and holding Bengal Leads or Rising Bengal Summits – a la Gujrat.

And, no one was better placed to do that than Mamata Banerjee. Even her worst critics would admit, Mamata’s singular strength is her ability to connect with people.  it's not for nothing that, TIME Magazine has named her among the 100 most influential persons in the world today. She has an earthy charisma and the girl from down the lane who-made-it-good  appeal, which she could use to her advantage to become a truly inspirational leader of the masses. Her call for change shouldn’t have ended with asking for votes for a change of guard at Writers’ Building – but going much beyond that to imbue the people with a new spirit of determination and enthusiasm to transform the state from within. Alas, this is where she has failed  to rise to the challenge and display the qualities expected of a visionary leader.

Governance is the key

The second issue where she seems to be completely out of depth – and in which both Nitish and Modi have scored spectacularly – is governance.  This is an area she should focus on to salvage the state from the morass it is swamped in. To do that would mean two things. One she has to cut off the politicians and establish direct channels of administration – as Nitish, Modi and – to some extent – even a Navin Patnaik has done.  But, perhaps – she can’t do that because she needs her party network to counter the grass-root machinery of the CPIM.

In the process, she is weakening the state administration, without - perhaps - realizing it,  even more than what it used to be during the Left Front rule. This is coupled with her lack of trust in her won colleagues and the scant regard with which she treats the bureaucracy or officials (as was evident in her action against  the South Calcutta Dy. Commissioner of Police, Damayanti Sen after the Park Street “rape” incident or from the peremptory manner in which she deals with senior  bureaucrats in public).

Forget a Nitish or Modi – who have some of the most competent and progressive officers  working for them , whom they have empowered completely –  a Mayawati or Akhilesh Yadav  too realize the importance of an efficient bureaucracy. People may have different views on the things Mayawati  (or, say  Jayalalitha  in her previous terms ), may have done in her 5 years – be it building gigantic monuments or getting private operators of her choice to make world-class Expressways. But, she couldn’t have achieved any of it without having officers with strong execution capabilities under her. And, all of them realize the importance of law and order in governance. So, even the detractors of Mayawati credit her for retrieving UP from “goonda raj”.

Listening (in)ability

The next is the ‘trust’ factor. All good leaders have a few strong aides, political managers and administrators around them. They understand the value of experience.  But, Mamata doesn’t make use of talent.  She has made all the capable people around her ciphers. A Subrata Mukherjee or Saugata Roy – could very well have played the role of elder statesmen in the party or government. But, they have been sidelined. The story of Dinesh Trivedy is well known. An Amit Mitra and Manish Gupta are non-entities in her scheme of things. She is the No 1, 2 and 3 of the party as people say of Sonia in the Congress (the cartoon below could have would be true of her as well  - just that no cartoonist would dare lampoon her anymore).  A leader must also have the time and patience to “listen”. But, she loves the sound of her own voice too much and is a narcissist when it comes to her own thoughts and ideas. 

But, more dangerously - perhaps - she seems to believe she alone has all the answers. someone joked, after Tagore, Mamata is probably the most versatile personality in the history of modern Bengal . She is at once a politician, an administrator, an artist, a poet, a singer, a town-planner, an educationist. The list can go on.

She is not Caesar’s wife. She is (still) single

The last count on which she makes me extremely worried is corruption. All said and done – during the Left Front regime “corruption” was almost miniscule – as compared to the rest of the country.  There is an apocryphal story about a late CPIM leader having gone to a non-resident Bengali  tycoon, who had the reputation of being a ‘banker’ to many politicians, asking if would keep some of his money. It seems the tycoon told him – 'I don’t deal in small change, first learn to earn and then come to me".

This is changing very fast.  And, perhaps unalterably so. It is common knowledge that Trinamool is breeding all pervading corruption in the system and her party workers and leaders are all on the take, trying to make a quick buck while it lasts.  I don’t believe this is something Mamata is unaware of. Though personally, she may be unimpeachable (it would probably be an affront to her maidenhood to compare her with Caesar’s wife) – but, perhaps, she is helpless as this is a by-product of the political structure and organization she has created.  But, if left unchecked this may come to haunt her soon.

Bengal at a cusp

In most marriages the ‘honeymoon’ lasts for some time. But, there are some in which the trauma and ordeal start from the nuptial night itself.  This one seems to be like that. But, there are instances in which the most troubled relationships settle down over time and even give way to love. Let’s hope this turns out to be a case of the latter.

So, as I said at the start, it may be too early to put a ‘paid’ stamp on the Poriborton bill. Mamata (and, by association West Bengal) is standing at a cusp. From here things can go either way.  With intelligence and some amount of  wisdom and vision Mamata can check the secular decline of West Bengal and change its trajectory like Nitish has done to Bihar or Modi has been able to accelerate in Gujrat. The sad contra scenario could be, she would  take it down like Lalu – not by her lack of integrity or intent (as Lalu had )  – but by sheer administrative incompetence.