Saradha or Narada - nothing can stop Mamata from returning !!

Article first published in +DailyO India Today click on this to read


The legendary filmy don "Loin" Ajit wanted to name the third of the triplets of his moll "Mona Darling" Suzi Wong because he said every third child in the world has to be a Chinese. Similarly, they say every third Bengali is a poet.

Abject economic and living conditions in the state has taken romance out of the lives of Bengalis, so they now wait for election season to hone their poetry skills. So many verses are doing the rounds on WhatsApp with political parties attacking each other. However, the Narada sting videos of March 10 has opened the floodgates of nonsense rhymes lampooning the Trinamool Congress (TMC) leaders caught on camera allegedly accepting cash.


Though tempted to reproduce some samples the nuances of poetry, especially the humorous and satirical ones, will be lost in translation. Therefore, moving from poetry to the politics of Narada - an apt name, since Narada is legendary for setting the cat among the pigeons, which these footages have certainly managed to do. Sting operators have been around for a while. Though available for business round the year, election time is the high season for them. But, for West Bengal, it is still a sunrise industry, hence, perhaps, so much of excitement.

There is an apocryphal story about a late lamented Left leader who used to always dress in white from head to toe but didn't quite have a lily-white reputation. He approached a fellow Bengali from Uttar Pradesh, popularly known as the biggest banker of politicians, to keep some of his stash. It seems this man from Lucknow rebuffed him saying, "I don't deal in small savings, first learn to earn and then come to me."

But, Saradha changed all that. Today, even the most "innocent" and idealistic Bengali knows Rs 5 lakh is chicken feed for politicians in this day and age. They also understand that fighting elections require large sums of money which can't be raised either by selling art or small change donations.


Gone are the days when even for the Left parties, cadres wrote posters on old newspapers and painted graffiti doing their bit for the ever illusive revolution. Therefore, while Parliament may have been rocked over it, in West Bengal, it was a matter of much amusement no matter how many vernacular channels tried to whip up storm in TV studios. So, chief minister Mamata Banerjee may be well advised in staying mum, hoping, like Prime Minister Narendra Modi that this too will blow over.

Now, with the BJP having thrown in the towel even before the match began the TMC has very little to worry about at the macro level. Between the Left and Congress, the former hasn't been able to still retrieve its reputation after 30 years of misrule for the people to trust them again so soon, while the latter (Congress) is in a state of tragi-comic limbo.


Therefore, barring some isolated pockets or parts of the state, which may be the traditional strongholds of either party, this bizarre alliance would be lucky to make a dent in TMC's newly-built electoral infrastructure. While there has been a tectonic shift in the Left's cadre base, the Congress has to depend mostly on hired goons.

TMC's real cause of concern is the electoral mathematics of where the anti-Muslim votes will move when the BJP is not a serious player at these polls. If despite being a non-starter the BJP still manages to retain a chunk of its votes, the TMC will come home clean and dry. But, if the Left and Congress are able to swing the fence-sitters, there can be tension in the Mamata camp.

Even then, after years of generous nurturing, the TMC can safely expect the Muslim voters to stay with them en masse. The residual elements can be mobilised through the science and art of "booth management" that the TMC had learnt from the CPI(M) and perfected over time.

The staunchest BJP supporter does not expect the party to be anywhere close to its 2014 Lok Sabha elections vote share of 16.8 per cent.

First, that was the Lok Sabha polls and propelled by the Modi tailwind. Since then, the BJP has rapidly yielded ground almost at the rate the Indian cricket team throws away wickets after a dressing room fight.

Despite that, with some consolidation of its core constituency, the BJP's vote share is unlikely to fall to the abysmal 2011 level of four per cent.

Then, the crucial variable is which way the balance will go. It is unlikely that this section will tilt towards the Left on a rebound. It is equally doubtful if they will settle for the Congress, which has been reduced to a pathetic rump by the TMC, as a compromise, especially since they moved towards the BJP, partly because of their dislike for the dynasty.

Thus, the TMC becomes the default choice, albeit with some smart manoeuvring on the ground. That, perhaps, also explains a return of Mukul Roy to the fold, following the proverbial "Arab's camel in the tent" principle.

Thus much of the debate and deliberation on whether Mamata will get a second term is academic and created primarily for TV TRPs.

Surely, she didn't deliver the promised "Poriborton" just as Modi delivering "acche din" remains a distant dream.

But, the electorate today is mature enough to understand what could be realistically achieved in five years after the systematic destruction of the state for over four decades by the Left Front.

So, if Modi compares turning around the Indian economy with a train making a U-turn - Mamata's task is nothing short of trying to make a junk Ambassador fly. Therefore, the TMC will return not for the lack of an alternative but because Mamata remains the best bet for West Bengal, no matter what her critics might say and opponents wish.

Why I shall still vote for Mamata in the coming Bengal elections !!

Diary of a reformed "Bhakt"

Article first published in +ABP NEWS Click here to read

Like many Bengalis, I was hugely hopeful when Mamata Banerjee stormed into the Red Bastille, as it were, ending over 30 years of Left hegemony in Bengal. Disillusionment and cynicism set in quickly as it appeared to be the same old local "Bangla" brew  being poured out of a green instead of red decanter. Then, came the light whiff of the Modi Tsunami of 2014 - raising right-wing expectations of a saffron surge in Bengal (incidentally, the birth-place of Shyama Prasad Mukherjee) to wash off the remnants of its Leftist past. I belonged to the last lot.

The enthusiasm was further fueled with BJP upping the ante post Lok Sabha elections and the Mamata government getting mired in scandals like Chit-Fund scams with heavy-weights like Mukul Roy threatening revolt. Though far from a revival of any sort - with a change of guard both at the centre and state CPIM was beginning to show some signs of recovery. But, soon the local bodies and Municipal polls - proved (allegations of violence and rigging notwithstanding) Mamata still held complete control of the state's political nerve-strings.

The biggest disappointment was, of course, the BJP. In any case, one expected little from a truncated Congress with its band of diminutive leaders and very few would like a return to the cadre-raj of CPIM. Besides, even the new CPIM leadership in the state - was well past their sell by date -  hopelessly caught in a time-warp -  both in their thinking and ideas. BJP's fizzled out in no time - for reasons that were a mystery to most. Whatever might have been the consideration of Modi-Shah leadership to go easy on the Trinamool government in West Bengal (perhaps, the need for support to get crucial legislation passed in Parliament) - the current BJP leadership in West Bengal cannot inspire any 'right-thinking' individual to vote for them. In these 2 years - no attempt has been made to build an organization or attract fresh talent into the party. 

The less said about the current state leadership the better. Sensible central minders like Siddharth Nath Singh have been pulled out and replaced with absentee land-lords of dubious distinction like Kailash Vijavargiya. For all practical purposes, BJP has given up West Bengal not just for the present but the foreseeable future. For now, Mamata looks invincible - straddling from the constituency abandoned by the Left across the "secular" divide to minorities vote-bank a la Lalu and Mulayam in the "cow-belt".

But, my vote for Mamata won't be a default option  for the lack of other alternatives. Truth be told - for the first time in perhaps 50 years - Bengal has a Chief Minister - who displays a sense of 'ownership' (not entitlement) and in her own way cares for the development of the state and its people - which is something that couldn't be said even for Jyoti Basu. Popular sops have become the order of the day and it would be unrealistic to expect any government to get out it in a hurry. But, when she takes up fights or drives a hard political bargain with the centre for funds - it is not solely to channelize it for party cadres like the CPIM. True, she hasn't turned Kolkata to London - but she must be credited with some sense of aesthetics for her well-meaning efforts at giving the city (and some other parts of the state) a facelift and makeover in the last 4 years. And, I would venture as far as to say - there is a soft glow of pride beginning to show on Bengalis, who were slipping into an identity crisis of sorts a few years ago. 

The primary criticism against Mamata would, of course, still be her failure to attract any sizeable industry to the state. This is a much more complex problem than one of land acquisition alone that would have thwarted any other government as well. The biggest issue is work culture that was systematically destroyed by the Left Front over 50 years (starting with the first United Front Government in the 60s) resulting in pathetic productivity of both white and grey collared workforce - that makes investors to shy away from Bengal. A workaholic and woman of action that she is, Mamata is not one to tolerate lethargy. But, it will take time to reengineer the DNA that has degenerated over half a decade.

However, industry alone can't be a solution in such a densely populated state with pressure on land further increasing with influx of population from across its eastern border. The days of labour intensive factories are long one. Today's automated production processes will create little direct employment. The challenge of re-skilling farm labour in other vocations is often glossed over. Given the work averse nature of the Bengalis - at least in the short term the ancillary employment opportunities will be taken over by migrant workers from neighbouring states - that will further compound the problem of agriculture displacement. This is a conundrum that successive governments will have to deal with. If at all, Mamata will be best placed to bite the bullet and take a tough call in her second term  - than either the BJP or CPIM if it were to return to power by any quirk of fate.

There is a lot of talk - much of it true - about the deteriorating law and order in the state and rise in corruption.  Those who have some first-hand idea of the Left rule - when the police was subservient  to the party command structure,  know it is as much of an exaggeration as reports on communal violence and intolerance  on the rise since BJP came to power.  I for one don't believe Mamata - being a stern disciplinarian -will allow the situation to get out of hand. Corruption has become a corollary of electoral politics. CPIM with its large cadre base  had a "low-cost model" of running the party and fighting elections. The same cannot be replicated by others - not even CPIM now that their cadre base has dissipated.  The scale of corruption is many times larger in states like Tamil Nadu, Maharashtra and Karnataka. But, it doesn't  show  - as there is simultaneous "value-creation". In West Bengal and other less affluent states of the East it hurts  - as the 'rent seekers' have to draw upon the already dwindling resources of the people. 

Above all this, Mamata is - arguably - the first Bengal CM who has made a place for herself on the national political scene on her own merits. Jyoti Basu owed his position largely to his stature in the party and S S Ray to the benevolence of Indira Gandhi. B C Roy was content to be a Bengali icon. Apart from arousing  Bengali sub-national pride -  people trust her as the only one capable - more than any other party's leader - of extracting a rightful share for Bengal - a state, they feel with some justification, that has been given the short-shrift by successive governments in Delhi since Independence.

That's why my vote will go to Mamata in the coming elections - with an apology note to Modi and Amit Shah.

A new Mukul ready to blossom or will it be nipped in the bud

Though the tremors within the Trinamool are nowhere close to the implosion that seems to be brewing in Congress,  the under-currents are palpable. In this context, the optics surrounding Mukul Roy’s deposition before the CBI yesterday is very significant.

A keen observer of West Bengal politics told me in Delhi the other day – if CBI does not detain Mukul after the interrogation ( as they did in the case of Madan Mitra and others before this) it will be a greater cause of worry for the party than if he were to be arrested.  Exactly something like that seems to have happened.

It is a matter of speculation – why Mukul spent so much time in Delhi since summons were issued to him by the CBI – now almost 3 weeks back.  It’s also noteworthy – CBI themselves didn’t press for the deadline of  January 21st it had originally set and allowed him to take his own sweet time to appear before them.  If CBI was concerned about his tampering with evidence or influencing  potential witnesses – they should not have allowed that extra time (and, also allow him to leave after the interrogations  yesterday). Mukul  himself  hasn’t denied rumours about him meeting the  BJP brass in Delhi and some BJP leaders have also acknowledged that approaches for meetings at the top level were indeed made.

But, changing sides or jumping the ship cannot be the game-plan of a master strategist and “Mr Cool” like Mukul  Roy. For him a more potent weapon would be a veiled threat for leading a revolt in the party. And, that’s exactly the card he seems to be playing. For, BJP too a split within Trinamool (and possible subsequent alliance with the splinter faction) might work far better than direct defections. In this context – one must also take note of BJP first announcing the impending cross-over of a large TMC contingent at Amit Shah’s January 20^th rally in Burdawan and subsequently calling it off “for the time being”. It’s not difficult to guess – in case of a division – which way this lot is going to go.

Before and after yesterday’s CBI deposition Mukul’s messages were very clear and sharply defined. First, he was willing to cooperate with the investigation as he wants the “truth” to come out (contrary to the combative stand taken by the party). He himself has not done anything “anaitik” (improper or unethical – as distinct from “abaidha”or illegal).  The selective ‘leaks’ from CBI about what he has disclosed are also very significant.  In short, they can be interpreted as a “sneak preview” of  things that might  come later.  (“Kahaan Abhi Baaki Hain”..wait for the next episode). 

After he came out of the CBI Office (it seems he had indicated to his supporters while going in that he will not be kept beyond 4 PM and that’s exactly when he emerged) his supporters cheered him by name “Mukul Roy Zindabad” (not mentioning either Trinamool or the party supremo) and it seems they weren’t even carrying party flags.  Finally, came Mukul’s own statement – “had it not been for this day, I wouldn’t have realised how much the people of West Bengal love me”.  No ambiguity in what he wanted to say...”make no mistakes I have my own support base”.

Mukul Roy is regarded one of the shrewdest political brains and party organiser in Bengal of recent times – second only to, perhaps, the legendary CPIM State Politburo Secretary – the late Anil Biswas, to whom the Left owe much of their 30 years of reign.  While Trinamool’s rise have no doubt been due to Mamata’s crusading zeal and charisma – Mukul’s role in building the organisation from the grassroots is known to all. He has his key men placed in every district and ward, block and panchayat. He also controlled the party’s finances. It may not be an exaggeration to say he was to Mamata Banerjee what Amit Shah is to Modi.

Many question his allegedly dubious antecedents. But, the saying “There is no saint without a past and no sinner without a future”  - holds true for Politicians as well.  Especially, if there is the Hooghly close by to have a holy dip and wash away your sins.

Is a new “Mukul” ready to blossom in West Bengal this spring or will it be nipped in the bud as it were – the coming weeks will tell.

Article first published in www.dailyo.in click here to read