Mamata Banerjee’s new term: Poriborton has to start from within

To make her place permanent in the hearts of Bengalis—the Didi for all times to come—‘poriborton’, like charity must begin from within

Mamata Banerjee’s biggest challenge is the lack of intellectual bandwidth in her team. There is no point in denying that the Bengal cadre of bureaucracy is shallow on talent. Photo: Pradeep Gaur/Mint

Article first published in +Mint  Click here to read

At his first rally in Kolkata—in the run-up to the 2014 Lok Sabha election, Narendra Modi called for Dada (Pranab Mukherjee) in Rashtrapati Bhavan, Didi (Mamata Banerjee) in West Bengal and (Narendra) Bhai in Delhi. Two years down the line, on the second anniversary of the Modi government, that formulation has indeed fallen into place. And significantly, in a Congress-mukt (Congress-free) form—since Banerjee’s Trinamool Congress opted for an Ekla Chalo Re (Go-it-alone) act in the recent state assembly election.

Whether one subscribes to the theories of tacit deals in Delhi or not, the equations on the ground have subtly changed. With the odd coupling of the Left and the Congress, Bharatiya Janata Party’s (BJP) 10% vote share has become a critical variable that Banerjee can no longer ignore. Whether it was media hype or wishful thinking that created an illusion of a late surge for the Left-Congress ‘Jot’, (alliance) it has left even the old faithful dejected about the future of any anti-TMC configuration in the state. It is entirely conceivable, a chunk of this section may well switch to BJP in 2019. Therefore, no matter how much of shadow boxing and verbal fencing Trinamool and BJP might indulge in public—one can safely expect to see more of “issue-based” support in Parliament—starting with the passing of the GST Bill among other pending legislation that had grounded NDA’s reforms agenda. All this should augur well for the state too —as Modi-Shah cannot afford to ignore the MP count of West Bengal in doing their arithmetic for 2019.

Mamata Banerjee is too sharp a politician to miss her tryst with history. Like Narendra Modi’s claims of a Vibrant Gujarat, she knows a ‘Resurgent Biswa Bangla’ can be her ticket to a Congress-mukt anti-BJP national league. Hence, she has little option but to make Unnayan (development) her equivalent of the bullet train. Bengal has decidedly changed from Red to Green—but, she knows, without visible economic progress, it could easily turn to saffron in the next three to five years.

A week is too short a time to make any prediction. But, some developments of the last seven days have left people jittery with premonitions of an encore of the last five years. Though her first interaction with the media after the results was measured and moderate, the signals thereafter, do not reflect the same maturity. To start with, she upturned the changes made by the Election Commission in the police commissariat, bringing back her favourite officer—perhaps, as a message to the bureaucracy that the boss is back. There was not even a hint of apology either for the pre-poll violence or the scams that were caught on camera. In fact, she went a step further to declare West Bengal as a “corruption free state”. As if to cock a snook at her opponents and detractors—she has many of the accused caught in sting operation—like Firad Hakim of Kolkata’s “mini-Pakistan” fame—back in the cabinet. One has also not seen any discernible attempt to check post-poll attacks on perceived ‘traitors’—with the customary trading of charges between opposing camps.

Banerjee’s biggest challenge is the lack of intellectual bandwidth in her team. There is no point in denying that the Bengal cadre of bureaucracy is shallow on talent. The brighter officers of Bengali origin—who have either moved to the Centre or belong to other state cadres are loathe to come back to Kolkata—just as many private sector professionals thriving in the greener pastures in Mumbai, Delhi and Bengaluru. Therefore, Mamata is handicapped by not having at her disposal a bunch of savvy officers like Narendra Modi had in Gujarat or a Nitish Kumar has been able to hand-pick from the formidable Bihar bench in the IAS. Among her ministerial colleagues—other than Amit Mitra, who has maintained a low profile compared to his Ficci days—Banerjee does not have the equivalent of Modi’s ‘Navaratna’—to implement her vision. There are a few with proven track record in administration—like Subrata Mukherjee—but their role has been restricted so far.

In her second term—Mamata Banerjee cannot rely just on her earthy, commonsense wisdom. She needs experts to advise her, for which she has to give up micro-management and give them space and freedom to operate. What Bengal needs are some quick wins. Land acquisition—though one can say with reasonable certainty Banerjee will crack it in this term—and industry will not happen overnight. Besides, investors do not put money on the ground till they develop confidence in the long-term outlook (think Bihar, where industrialization has still not taken off despite this being Nitish Kumar’s third term).

The solution, therefore, is the service industry. But even that will require breakthrough thinking and a radical change in work culture. Bengal has already missed the bus of the generic IT outsourcing boom, where Bengaluru, Gurgaon and Chennai have secured huge leads. Trying to enter late into the party will make it at best a distant also-ran. The way to go would be to build specialized competencies around select industries like food processing and floriculture in which the state has a natural advantage and provide a good complementary fit for service ancillaries.

But, salvation may lie in returning to the traditional Bengali knowledge-based competencies in education, medicine (healthcare), scientific research, cinema and aesthetics (design). Bengal is the only state that spans the Himalayas to the sea—with stretches of river, forests and archaeological treasures like Bishnupur and Murshidabad in between. With proper infrastructure, it can easily repeat Kerala’s tourism act. Smartly marketed, the Sunderbans can any day give the backwaters a run for its money.

For a start, Banerjee may be able to woo back talent from the diaspora with her sisterly (didi) charm, which could be much more productive than forays to Singapore, London and the US for the elusive and illusory foreign direct investment.

In September, Banerjee will be travelling to Rome to attend the canonization of Mother Teresa. There is one lesson, perhaps, she can take from the late Albanian nun soon to be anointed saint. To make her place permanent in the hearts of Bengalis—the Didi for all times to come—poriborton, like charity must begin from within.

Why I shall still vote for Mamata in the coming Bengal elections !!

Diary of a reformed "Bhakt"

Article first published in +ABP NEWS Click here to read

Like many Bengalis, I was hugely hopeful when Mamata Banerjee stormed into the Red Bastille, as it were, ending over 30 years of Left hegemony in Bengal. Disillusionment and cynicism set in quickly as it appeared to be the same old local "Bangla" brew  being poured out of a green instead of red decanter. Then, came the light whiff of the Modi Tsunami of 2014 - raising right-wing expectations of a saffron surge in Bengal (incidentally, the birth-place of Shyama Prasad Mukherjee) to wash off the remnants of its Leftist past. I belonged to the last lot.

The enthusiasm was further fueled with BJP upping the ante post Lok Sabha elections and the Mamata government getting mired in scandals like Chit-Fund scams with heavy-weights like Mukul Roy threatening revolt. Though far from a revival of any sort - with a change of guard both at the centre and state CPIM was beginning to show some signs of recovery. But, soon the local bodies and Municipal polls - proved (allegations of violence and rigging notwithstanding) Mamata still held complete control of the state's political nerve-strings.

The biggest disappointment was, of course, the BJP. In any case, one expected little from a truncated Congress with its band of diminutive leaders and very few would like a return to the cadre-raj of CPIM. Besides, even the new CPIM leadership in the state - was well past their sell by date -  hopelessly caught in a time-warp -  both in their thinking and ideas. BJP's fizzled out in no time - for reasons that were a mystery to most. Whatever might have been the consideration of Modi-Shah leadership to go easy on the Trinamool government in West Bengal (perhaps, the need for support to get crucial legislation passed in Parliament) - the current BJP leadership in West Bengal cannot inspire any 'right-thinking' individual to vote for them. In these 2 years - no attempt has been made to build an organization or attract fresh talent into the party. 

The less said about the current state leadership the better. Sensible central minders like Siddharth Nath Singh have been pulled out and replaced with absentee land-lords of dubious distinction like Kailash Vijavargiya. For all practical purposes, BJP has given up West Bengal not just for the present but the foreseeable future. For now, Mamata looks invincible - straddling from the constituency abandoned by the Left across the "secular" divide to minorities vote-bank a la Lalu and Mulayam in the "cow-belt".

But, my vote for Mamata won't be a default option  for the lack of other alternatives. Truth be told - for the first time in perhaps 50 years - Bengal has a Chief Minister - who displays a sense of 'ownership' (not entitlement) and in her own way cares for the development of the state and its people - which is something that couldn't be said even for Jyoti Basu. Popular sops have become the order of the day and it would be unrealistic to expect any government to get out it in a hurry. But, when she takes up fights or drives a hard political bargain with the centre for funds - it is not solely to channelize it for party cadres like the CPIM. True, she hasn't turned Kolkata to London - but she must be credited with some sense of aesthetics for her well-meaning efforts at giving the city (and some other parts of the state) a facelift and makeover in the last 4 years. And, I would venture as far as to say - there is a soft glow of pride beginning to show on Bengalis, who were slipping into an identity crisis of sorts a few years ago. 

The primary criticism against Mamata would, of course, still be her failure to attract any sizeable industry to the state. This is a much more complex problem than one of land acquisition alone that would have thwarted any other government as well. The biggest issue is work culture that was systematically destroyed by the Left Front over 50 years (starting with the first United Front Government in the 60s) resulting in pathetic productivity of both white and grey collared workforce - that makes investors to shy away from Bengal. A workaholic and woman of action that she is, Mamata is not one to tolerate lethargy. But, it will take time to reengineer the DNA that has degenerated over half a decade.

However, industry alone can't be a solution in such a densely populated state with pressure on land further increasing with influx of population from across its eastern border. The days of labour intensive factories are long one. Today's automated production processes will create little direct employment. The challenge of re-skilling farm labour in other vocations is often glossed over. Given the work averse nature of the Bengalis - at least in the short term the ancillary employment opportunities will be taken over by migrant workers from neighbouring states - that will further compound the problem of agriculture displacement. This is a conundrum that successive governments will have to deal with. If at all, Mamata will be best placed to bite the bullet and take a tough call in her second term  - than either the BJP or CPIM if it were to return to power by any quirk of fate.

There is a lot of talk - much of it true - about the deteriorating law and order in the state and rise in corruption.  Those who have some first-hand idea of the Left rule - when the police was subservient  to the party command structure,  know it is as much of an exaggeration as reports on communal violence and intolerance  on the rise since BJP came to power.  I for one don't believe Mamata - being a stern disciplinarian -will allow the situation to get out of hand. Corruption has become a corollary of electoral politics. CPIM with its large cadre base  had a "low-cost model" of running the party and fighting elections. The same cannot be replicated by others - not even CPIM now that their cadre base has dissipated.  The scale of corruption is many times larger in states like Tamil Nadu, Maharashtra and Karnataka. But, it doesn't  show  - as there is simultaneous "value-creation". In West Bengal and other less affluent states of the East it hurts  - as the 'rent seekers' have to draw upon the already dwindling resources of the people. 

Above all this, Mamata is - arguably - the first Bengal CM who has made a place for herself on the national political scene on her own merits. Jyoti Basu owed his position largely to his stature in the party and S S Ray to the benevolence of Indira Gandhi. B C Roy was content to be a Bengali icon. Apart from arousing  Bengali sub-national pride -  people trust her as the only one capable - more than any other party's leader - of extracting a rightful share for Bengal - a state, they feel with some justification, that has been given the short-shrift by successive governments in Delhi since Independence.

That's why my vote will go to Mamata in the coming elections - with an apology note to Modi and Amit Shah.

TMC Sweeps Kolkata: Tale of Didi, Dada and Bhai

Didi Rules Bengal

The results of Kolkata and other Municipality Elections shouldn't have come as a surprise to anyone. This columnist may be tempted to say "I told you so" (Read previous DailyO article  BJP needs a new gardener in West Bengal) but truth be said, the results were a forgone conclusion. What may come as a jolt to many is BJP's total rout - which the Trinamool spokesperson rather unkindly - but not entirely without justification - called "a balloon gone Phoos !!".

That Congress couldn't put up a respectable show will not bother many. More significant is the total decimation of the Left with no signs of the proverbial phoenix rising from the ashes.

Trinamool didn't need to indulge in any rigging or violence to achieve these results. Many political observers believe - the violence happened either out of local rivalries among lumpen elements or an "over-kill" following Mukul Roy's disengagement and fear of internal sabotage.The slogan #DidiRules, therefore, is meant as much for the opposition as it is for inner party constituents.

Congress is all but a spent force in Bengal. Even assuming the new improved RaGa 2.0 is able to breathe fresh life into the party - it will be a long time before it touches Bengal. In the coming Assembly Elections - therefore, it'll desperately seek alliance with either the Left or Trinamool - but both have little reason or incentive to grant it space. The coming months will no doubt see a a queue of dejected Congressmen outside Mamata Banerjee's Kalighat residence. In the longer term,  it would be reasonable to expect - the Left of Centre space in Bengal will be occupied by Trinamool or one of its off-shoots if it were to arise.

The just elected CPIM supremo Sitaram Yechury - who knows Bengal (and Bengali) well - has rightly placed the finger on the pulse - when he said the main challenge of the Left is get back the youth to its fold. But, he doesn't spell out what does the Left have to offer today's youth - who are looking for jobs and gainful employment - given Left's dismal track record on that economic front in Bengal. At least to that extent - though the jury is still out - Mamata Banerjee still holds out the promise of getting industry to invest in Bengal, create jobs and development of the state. Any such claims by CPIM  is bound to sound hollow.

The bigger issue for CPIM is it has lost its cadre base entirely. The dividends of Land Reform and Operation Barga have been milked dry. With fragmented land- holdings villagers prefer to move out to cities or other states for employment and the actual work of tilling the land left for non-agricultural farm-labourers.  With hardly any industries left in the state - the trade unions have also moved out of its ranks. The educated youth no longer want to stay back in the state - and the chatter of latest movies and TV serials dominate the air of Coffee Houses and College Canteens rather than talk of Marx and Lenin.

BJP's failure in these elections is not only that it could not mobilise even a "work in progress" organisation - losing the plot even before it got started with infighting and anarchy -  but the way it frittered away in less than a year the goodwill generated at the time of the Lok Sabha elections. It also can't be denied - however much one may argue local body elections are decided on local issues - the NDA governments performance so far has failed to inspire the Bengalis. It is, perhaps, also a commentary on people's increasing agnosticism towards scams and coruuption - that all the noise over Saradha and other Ponzi frauds didn't have any visible impact on the poll outcome. While it is certainly true - Mamata Banerjee and TrInamool have mastered the art of "election management" first perfected by the Left (perhaps, better than even her own "art") - it would be futile for BJP to seek an excuse in that - as some of their national leaders have already begun to do. instead, it is time for the party to look for a new leader and a central manager who can build the organisation from the grassroots and re engineer its image.

Till then - probably - the best bet for Bengal would be to live by the formula which Narendra Modi had suggested in his first election rally in Kolkata in February 2014 - "Didi in the State, Dada (Pranab Mukherjee) in Rashtrapati Bhavan and (Narendra) Bhai at the PMO.  It could well be a winning formula - at least in the short term - if Didi and Bhai can establish a working relationship may be with a little help from the Dada.

#BengalVerdict #Trinamool #DidiRules #BJPBengal #KolkataMunicipalCorporation #WestBengal

Article first published in DailyO_ Click here to read 

Non-aggression is a "Non-Option" for Modi Government in Parliament

There is a great deal of sadistic joy being derived by politicians, media pundits and social media “liberalati” on the apparent “setback” suffered by the government – after an united opposition forced an amendment to the motion of thanks for the President’s Address. Media reaction ranged from “embarrassment” to “government left red-faced”. The Trinamool Congress rejoiced at their pyrrhic victory – by an unprecedented act of convergence with arch-rival CPI(M) - their Parliamentary party leader, Derek O’Brien, calling it “the Rajya Sabha’s equivalent of a vote of No Confidence”. Many a commentator has already written the epitaph of the Land Acquisition, Insurance and other bills in the parliamentary pipeline saying Modi’s arrogance is going to cost BJP dearly.

It is unlikely that the PM Modi hadn’t bargained for any reaction– after what was by any standards a provocative speech. If he left the House immediately on completion of his speech – without waiting for any questions or rejoinders – it must have been a pre-mediated move and not guided solely by considerations of parliamentary protocol. While the absence of BJP MPs from the house was singularly unpardonable – they being around would not have made much difference as the NDA is hopelessly short of numbers in the Rajya Sabha.

It is debatable if better “floor management” could have saved the day. Some feel the BSP, SP and BJD may have been persuaded not to go against the government at least on this occasion - but expecting the Congress and CPI(M) to have yielded after the vitriol that was poured over them in both houses (in the Rajya Sabha and the Lok Sabha ) was wishful thinking.

Narendra Modi’s combative mood was evident from his swipes as “Zamana badal gaya hain, sunna padega ji” – not to mention, his going for the jugular on MNREGA in the Lok Sabha - which was undoubtedly targeted squarely at Sonia Gandhi sitting across the aisle. And, oh boy – did the message hit home? One had to only watch Madam’s expression on TV to know. Therefore, if he chose to be aggressive it must have been advisedly so. This might hold some clue on what could the government’s strategy in the days ahead is going to be as it braces up to negotiate some vital pieces of legislation on which rests not just BJP’s economic reforms agenda – but also, as the Prime Minister so lucidly explained , many of the welfare and developmental initiatives linked to them.

In an earlier article even this author had argued that Modi should – perhaps – have adopted a more “inclusive” or reconciliatory approach in governance carrying the opposition with him to the extent possible. That he has chosen not to do so - can’t be due to his ego and authoritarian temperament alone. Whether one likes him or not, there is no underestimating Modi’s political acumen – as he himself chided the opposition in Parliament. If he thought – offering the olive branch to the Opposition was the solution, he would have done so long back. It’d be simplistic to suggest he has been blinded by power not to see the obvious.

Erudite political analysts have criticised the “modern day Alexander” streak in Modi – with Amit Shah being his proverbial “Ashwamedh” – suggesting this is creating deep insecurity not only among BJP’s opponents but also its allies. It is also being argued – after Jharkhand, Kashmir and, now, most recently the Delhi rout – this strategy has run its course and can only yield diminishing returns, if not become outright counter-productive, going forward. Therefore – if Modi has decided to play on the front-foot it must only be after careful consideration. Even before the elections – Modi had figured out he had to go it alone all the way. None of the left of centre parties would risk jeopardising their traditional vote-bank (dilute their labels of “secular” or “friends of the poor and farmers’’ – as opposed to industrialists) for the fear of total extinction. Little has changed even after the elections. Those – who had to switch sides, have done so lock, stock and barrel (though one is yet to see any real exodus yet). For others it’s too early to give up their core “positioning”, which they are only trying to consolidate it by strange mating rituals driven by strong Darwinian instincts of self-preservation, as it were. And, to expect the Congress to play a “bi-partisan” role – under their current self-centred leadership – would be dreaming of Ram Rajya indeed.

Another learning for Modi government has been - alliances have been formed through hard-negotiations by subtle show of strength and occasional brinkmanship. They have to be held in place also by exercising the “upper-hand” at all times. Slightest signs of faltering or weakness – and partners like the Shiv Sena immediately start flexing muscles demanding a fresh pound of flesh. Allies will play ball only as long as BJP is in the driver’s seat. For that Modi-Shah’s expansionist forays have to continue relentlessly.

Though the merits of a strategy can only be judged in hindsight – and therein lie the test of a leader – for the moment “non – confrontational” parliamentary politics is not an option for Modi government. If civilised discourses and genteel persuasion were the solution – then Arun Jaitley’s cerebral speeches and dinner diplomacy would have won the day. But, here we are dealing with mauled tigers – which won’t be tamed just by applying poultice on their wounds. Sure, backroom negotiations will happen. But, they will have to be with real carrots and sticks on the table – and not soft cajoling and coaxing - over litti-chokha (in any case Bengali “fish-fry” is a no-no for vegetarian Modi).

But, in the final analysis, Modi is the prime minister today by virtue of an overwhelming popular mandate. Ultimately he will have to carry the message back to the people. In this, he is fighting a lonely battle. It is ironical that Modi’s biggest gift – communication - is also proving to be his Achilles Heel. Modi’s only cheerleaders are his band of hand-picked loyal ministers - mostly the young lot. By choice, he has marginalised the old guard. The RSS and its nominees in Parliament have little stake in Modi’s reformist agenda. There will always be that uneasy tension with the old regional satraps – like Raman Singh and Shivraj Chouhan. Seniors like Rajnath, Sushma and Gadkari – who share a mutual wariness with Modi - would play it safe and won’t stick their necks out for Modi. To that extent, he suffers from the same handicap as the UPA, which was often called a government of “technocrats and bureaucrats”. This leaves only Modi alone to control the narrative – with little help that he can get from Arun Jaitley and Amit Shah. He did it successfully – during his run up to the Lok Sabha - managing his entire campaign out of a war-room in Gandhinagar with a crack team (and, probably, an international Communication Consultant – as many allege). But, he can’t remain the lone crusader when he is the PM, as the position itself puts major constraints on him like we saw during the Delhi elections.

At present Modi has the entire Opposition, NGOs, media left-lib intellectuals and some sections of businessmen rallying to derail him. So far, Modi has managed to successfully neutralise (even if for the time being) the international lobby. He could isolate another vital link in the chain by co-opting the media - who – feeling left out as jilted lovers – would be too willing to queue up and offer their hand – if only Modi whispers “Barkis is willing”. It may not honeymoon on a bed of roses thereafter – but life can certainly be a bit less stressful.

Article first published in @DailyO_ (click here to read)

A new Mukul ready to blossom or will it be nipped in the bud

Though the tremors within the Trinamool are nowhere close to the implosion that seems to be brewing in Congress,  the under-currents are palpable. In this context, the optics surrounding Mukul Roy’s deposition before the CBI yesterday is very significant.

A keen observer of West Bengal politics told me in Delhi the other day – if CBI does not detain Mukul after the interrogation ( as they did in the case of Madan Mitra and others before this) it will be a greater cause of worry for the party than if he were to be arrested.  Exactly something like that seems to have happened.

It is a matter of speculation – why Mukul spent so much time in Delhi since summons were issued to him by the CBI – now almost 3 weeks back.  It’s also noteworthy – CBI themselves didn’t press for the deadline of  January 21st it had originally set and allowed him to take his own sweet time to appear before them.  If CBI was concerned about his tampering with evidence or influencing  potential witnesses – they should not have allowed that extra time (and, also allow him to leave after the interrogations  yesterday). Mukul  himself  hasn’t denied rumours about him meeting the  BJP brass in Delhi and some BJP leaders have also acknowledged that approaches for meetings at the top level were indeed made.

But, changing sides or jumping the ship cannot be the game-plan of a master strategist and “Mr Cool” like Mukul  Roy. For him a more potent weapon would be a veiled threat for leading a revolt in the party. And, that’s exactly the card he seems to be playing. For, BJP too a split within Trinamool (and possible subsequent alliance with the splinter faction) might work far better than direct defections. In this context – one must also take note of BJP first announcing the impending cross-over of a large TMC contingent at Amit Shah’s January 20^th rally in Burdawan and subsequently calling it off “for the time being”. It’s not difficult to guess – in case of a division – which way this lot is going to go.

Before and after yesterday’s CBI deposition Mukul’s messages were very clear and sharply defined. First, he was willing to cooperate with the investigation as he wants the “truth” to come out (contrary to the combative stand taken by the party). He himself has not done anything “anaitik” (improper or unethical – as distinct from “abaidha”or illegal).  The selective ‘leaks’ from CBI about what he has disclosed are also very significant.  In short, they can be interpreted as a “sneak preview” of  things that might  come later.  (“Kahaan Abhi Baaki Hain”..wait for the next episode). 

After he came out of the CBI Office (it seems he had indicated to his supporters while going in that he will not be kept beyond 4 PM and that’s exactly when he emerged) his supporters cheered him by name “Mukul Roy Zindabad” (not mentioning either Trinamool or the party supremo) and it seems they weren’t even carrying party flags.  Finally, came Mukul’s own statement – “had it not been for this day, I wouldn’t have realised how much the people of West Bengal love me”.  No ambiguity in what he wanted to say...”make no mistakes I have my own support base”.

Mukul Roy is regarded one of the shrewdest political brains and party organiser in Bengal of recent times – second only to, perhaps, the legendary CPIM State Politburo Secretary – the late Anil Biswas, to whom the Left owe much of their 30 years of reign.  While Trinamool’s rise have no doubt been due to Mamata’s crusading zeal and charisma – Mukul’s role in building the organisation from the grassroots is known to all. He has his key men placed in every district and ward, block and panchayat. He also controlled the party’s finances. It may not be an exaggeration to say he was to Mamata Banerjee what Amit Shah is to Modi.

Many question his allegedly dubious antecedents. But, the saying “There is no saint without a past and no sinner without a future”  - holds true for Politicians as well.  Especially, if there is the Hooghly close by to have a holy dip and wash away your sins.

Is a new “Mukul” ready to blossom in West Bengal this spring or will it be nipped in the bud as it were – the coming weeks will tell.

Article first published in www.dailyo.in click here to read

The Winner takes it all..and...'Ekla Chalo Re'

So, Modi is all set to be "crowned" tomorrow - after what may be called a watershed - election. It turned out to be a real "The Winner Takes It All" victory - stunning the whole nation.

In a first of sorts, Heads of Government from all SAARC countries, Maldives and Mauritius will attend the ceremony along with over 2500 Indian dignitaries. Conspicuous by her absence will be the Chief Minister of West Bengal Mamata Banerjee.  Earlier it was reported, she had advised all newly elected MPs of her party to stay away from the function. But, on second thoughts - perhaps, she is deputing two trusted emissaries - Amit Mitra, Finance Minister of West Bengal, and Mukul Roy, General Secretary of Trinamool Congress, to represent her at the event.

Most people argue, Mamata Banerjee could have shown more grace on an occasion - which is as much about Modi as it is a celebration of Indian Democracy. But, then - those who know Mamata intimately would say - she's not given to hypocrisy. After the out-pour of bad-blood and vitriol during the election campaign it might have appeared duplicitous to her core-constituents - if she were to give an impression of "all is fair in love and war".


If Modi and BJP's victory at the centre was cataclysmic - Trinamool's performance in West Bengal was no less phenomenal. Insiders reveal, the party's own estimates were nowhere close to 34 seats. In the best case scenario, they hoped to get 26-28 seats. That the Left would be decimated to such an extent was even beyond their expectation. A young Rajya Sabha MP of Trinamool told me, even if allegations of rigging and intimidation are true - it could have given them an additional 4 or 5 seats at best but not such a sweeping mandate. While just like Modi nationally - in West Bengal people voted for Mamata, much of the credit behind the voter mobilisation goes to the organisation man - Mukul Roy whom, some are calling the Amit Shah of Bengal, he shared as an aside. (That begs the question, couldn't the same 'victory' have been achieved without violence and bloodshed that sullied the name of the state - a hark back to the dark days of 'cadre-raj')

The Left in India has lost in relevance - but in West Bengal they've also lost the will to win. The ground has shifted from beneath their feet - TMC has pulled the rug as it were. It was sad to see giants like Basudeb Acharya - with tremendous people connect reduced to dust by a once glamourous diva, now well past her "use by" date (if I'm permitted a sexist dig).  The proverbial grass-root organisation of the CPIM has simply evaporated into thin air and they are left making the same accusations against the ruling party as one used to hear about them till a decade ago.

But, the real story of these elections - even in West Bengal - is the BJP. Many have been intrigued by the disproportionate amount of time Modi devoted to West Bengal during the campaign. Modi held some 7 - 8 rallies in the state. Since, a Gujarati views everything in terms of ROI (Return on Investment) -  the dividend was certainly poor if measured in terms of seats alone. However, if one delves a little deeper another sub-plot emerges. The BJP's vote-share in these elections increased from 6.15 % to 16.8 % precariously close to the Left's 22.7 % and far ahead of the Congress' 9.6 %. In 30 of the 42 Lok Sabha constituencies BJP emerged as the No 2 party. In 20 assembly constituencies, including some very high-profile ones, BJP were ahead (Read article).

What does this mean ? If the Modi Government at the centre stays on course and keeps alive the promise of development BJP may well consolidate its strength and emerge as the main Opposition party in the next Assembly Elections (Read earlier post). In his speeches, Modi's main target was the young audience of 18-28. There is no reason to believe - Bengali youth will think very differently from the rest of the country and not opt for development and promise of a brighter future.

It is here that one regrets the "hostility" trap Bengal falls into with successive government over the last 50 years, for which the state (and, more importantly, the younger generation) had to pay dearly. This was one chance for us to get back to the mainstream of national politics - but we once again seem to have missed the boat. There were subtle overtures made by Modi in the beginning which were rudely rebuffed due to local political compulsions (Read Vote Bank Politics is here to stay) .

But, it may not be too late yet to work out a tacit 'understanding' - without adopting a posture of aggressive opposition. Modi is a pragmatic politician, who looks at the longer term. Except for some unforeseen catastrophe, he is here to stay and he knows - that if not today - he might need the Trinamool's support in future and, therefore, be willing to play along. While we may have the example of the much vaunted "Gujarat Model where growth and development was allegedly achieved without support from the centre , we have also seen, in these elections, the case of Bihar, where Nitish spent 10 years fighting in vain for Bihar's "special status". Finally, when he failed to deliver on the promise of development - the voters shifted en-masse away from his party. 

Therefore, "Ekla Chalo Re" may not be the best anthem for all times.....

"Vanishing" Poriborton

So Mamata completes a year in office.  In the coming days newspapers , magazines and television  will try to outdo one another with articles and features analyzing ad nauseam her  performance so far, to which – no doubt -  Op-Ed writers and “Bidwojon-s” of  the National Media will add their wisdom and pass  ‘interim’ judgment. So,  thought it is an opportune time for me to tuck-in my 2 penny bits to it before other illustrious and more qualified people get into the act.

A very senior Delhi-based columnist and media commentator, a non-resident Bong, has been commissioned by a top national magazine to do such a piece on Trinamool’s 365 days in power. I was mildly flattered, when he invited me for a beer at one of the clubs – to have my take on some of the issues. And, it took  me just a swig of Kingfisher to launch into my pet rant on everything that Mamata and TMC seem to be doing wrong.

But, about half-way through our conversation, I paused like a subject on a therapist’s chair, and asked – wait a minute, are we being entirely fair to her? After a while – we both agreed, it’s probably too early to write her off yet and the jury is still out.  Disenchantment is a creeping process – though it may not take another 34 years, as it did to throw CPIM out – it’ll be some more time before it turns into a tide against her.  For that to happen earlier, she has to commit some terrible blunders – which she probably won’t, as – at the end of the day – she has too much political horse-sense to know she can’t mess around with her constituency beyond a point.

Megalomania or Incipient Paranoia

Yet, she is beginning to show disturbing signs of megalomania. Her intolerance to criticism, vulnerability to flattery and sycophancy  and – what the famous Ashish Nandy calls  - incipient “paranoia” (they want to “vanish” me ), reveals some shades of Indira Gandhi in the height of power. Though, it would be rather harsh to call them fascist traits as few die-hard cynics might tend to do.

Again like Indira Gandhi followed a different agenda at home and abroad – Mamata has a different line in the state and another one for the centre. When in Delhi, she flirts with non-Congress CMs to play the ‘federalism’ card (NCTC) , takes adversarial positions with the Centre on matters of fund allocation to the state and policy issues such as FDI in Retail. She wants to be consulted foreign policy issues with neighbours (Bangladesh - Teesta).  These too are reminiscent of Mrs Gandhi’s and parallels can be drawn with her dalliance with the Soviets and the “Non-aligned” Block or trying to prop up SAARC.  Back in Calcutta – she reverts to IG’s “Garibi Hatao” like populist chant of “Ma, Mati, Manush”.

Take a deep breath

There’s absolutely no denying , what brought  Mamata to power is her  call for change – “Poriborton” . But, while capitalizing on it for electoral success – she hasn’t been able to harness the goodwill, enthusiasm and positive energy of the masses for transformation of the state.  Something that, a Nitish Kumar in Bihar and Narendra Modi has been able to do. Today, one can feel a palpable pride among the Biharis – which has also been transmitted to the Diaspora living across the country and even overseas. In Gujrat too – the heightened sense of  chauvinism fuelled by the  state’s success in almost every field  is there for all to see – not just at the Vibrant Gujrat summits or the Amitabh Bacchan’s “Breathe in a bit of Gujrat’ TVCs.  ( See one by clicking here http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VdcEqUtTcfc )

Attitude is everything

What is needed to transform Bengal – is a change in the work culture and attitude of people. Industry and investment will come in only with that – not by trying to market the state by signing up Sharukh Khan as Brand Ambassador and holding Bengal Leads or Rising Bengal Summits – a la Gujrat.

And, no one was better placed to do that than Mamata Banerjee. Even her worst critics would admit, Mamata’s singular strength is her ability to connect with people.  it's not for nothing that, TIME Magazine has named her among the 100 most influential persons in the world today. She has an earthy charisma and the girl from down the lane who-made-it-good  appeal, which she could use to her advantage to become a truly inspirational leader of the masses. Her call for change shouldn’t have ended with asking for votes for a change of guard at Writers’ Building – but going much beyond that to imbue the people with a new spirit of determination and enthusiasm to transform the state from within. Alas, this is where she has failed  to rise to the challenge and display the qualities expected of a visionary leader.

Governance is the key

The second issue where she seems to be completely out of depth – and in which both Nitish and Modi have scored spectacularly – is governance.  This is an area she should focus on to salvage the state from the morass it is swamped in. To do that would mean two things. One she has to cut off the politicians and establish direct channels of administration – as Nitish, Modi and – to some extent – even a Navin Patnaik has done.  But, perhaps – she can’t do that because she needs her party network to counter the grass-root machinery of the CPIM.

In the process, she is weakening the state administration, without - perhaps - realizing it,  even more than what it used to be during the Left Front rule. This is coupled with her lack of trust in her won colleagues and the scant regard with which she treats the bureaucracy or officials (as was evident in her action against  the South Calcutta Dy. Commissioner of Police, Damayanti Sen after the Park Street “rape” incident or from the peremptory manner in which she deals with senior  bureaucrats in public).

Forget a Nitish or Modi – who have some of the most competent and progressive officers  working for them , whom they have empowered completely –  a Mayawati or Akhilesh Yadav  too realize the importance of an efficient bureaucracy. People may have different views on the things Mayawati  (or, say  Jayalalitha  in her previous terms ), may have done in her 5 years – be it building gigantic monuments or getting private operators of her choice to make world-class Expressways. But, she couldn’t have achieved any of it without having officers with strong execution capabilities under her. And, all of them realize the importance of law and order in governance. So, even the detractors of Mayawati credit her for retrieving UP from “goonda raj”.

Listening (in)ability

The next is the ‘trust’ factor. All good leaders have a few strong aides, political managers and administrators around them. They understand the value of experience.  But, Mamata doesn’t make use of talent.  She has made all the capable people around her ciphers. A Subrata Mukherjee or Saugata Roy – could very well have played the role of elder statesmen in the party or government. But, they have been sidelined. The story of Dinesh Trivedy is well known. An Amit Mitra and Manish Gupta are non-entities in her scheme of things. She is the No 1, 2 and 3 of the party as people say of Sonia in the Congress (the cartoon below could have would be true of her as well  - just that no cartoonist would dare lampoon her anymore).  A leader must also have the time and patience to “listen”. But, she loves the sound of her own voice too much and is a narcissist when it comes to her own thoughts and ideas. 

But, more dangerously - perhaps - she seems to believe she alone has all the answers. someone joked, after Tagore, Mamata is probably the most versatile personality in the history of modern Bengal . She is at once a politician, an administrator, an artist, a poet, a singer, a town-planner, an educationist. The list can go on.

She is not Caesar’s wife. She is (still) single

The last count on which she makes me extremely worried is corruption. All said and done – during the Left Front regime “corruption” was almost miniscule – as compared to the rest of the country.  There is an apocryphal story about a late CPIM leader having gone to a non-resident Bengali  tycoon, who had the reputation of being a ‘banker’ to many politicians, asking if would keep some of his money. It seems the tycoon told him – 'I don’t deal in small change, first learn to earn and then come to me".

This is changing very fast.  And, perhaps unalterably so. It is common knowledge that Trinamool is breeding all pervading corruption in the system and her party workers and leaders are all on the take, trying to make a quick buck while it lasts.  I don’t believe this is something Mamata is unaware of. Though personally, she may be unimpeachable (it would probably be an affront to her maidenhood to compare her with Caesar’s wife) – but, perhaps, she is helpless as this is a by-product of the political structure and organization she has created.  But, if left unchecked this may come to haunt her soon.

Bengal at a cusp

In most marriages the ‘honeymoon’ lasts for some time. But, there are some in which the trauma and ordeal start from the nuptial night itself.  This one seems to be like that. But, there are instances in which the most troubled relationships settle down over time and even give way to love. Let’s hope this turns out to be a case of the latter.

So, as I said at the start, it may be too early to put a ‘paid’ stamp on the Poriborton bill. Mamata (and, by association West Bengal) is standing at a cusp. From here things can go either way.  With intelligence and some amount of  wisdom and vision Mamata can check the secular decline of West Bengal and change its trajectory like Nitish has done to Bihar or Modi has been able to accelerate in Gujrat. The sad contra scenario could be, she would  take it down like Lalu – not by her lack of integrity or intent (as Lalu had )  – but by sheer administrative incompetence.

What India thought yesterday, Bengal will think tomorrow

A development which has been irking me for the last few days – is the community twist that is being given to the #AMRI case. In what appears to be an orchestrated campaign a PR spin is being is being given – as if it’s a conspiracy against a particular community – namely, the Marwaris. So much so, I was quite astounded to see a front=page anchor story headline in the Economic Times, of all papers, “Marwaris feel the heat, as Didi breathes fire” click here to read (. Very unbecoming of a respected national newspaper, I thought and sent SMS texts to that effect to their editors.)

There is a larger legal question on the accountability of directors – on which I can hold forth – but that’s not my topic of discussion here. (click here to read) What’s bothering me is the gradual change of  Bengal’s social fabric.

To finish off the Marwari angle first. I was mildly embarrassed by a couple of pointed reference to that community in the comments to my blog on the #AMRI tragedy. (To the best of my recollection and belief –  in my post read here – I had not raised any pointing fingers at any one group  - but that’s beside the point). Even then I didn’t pay much attention there. There has always existed a tacit animosity between the ethnic Bengalis and the Marwaris – often translated in disparaging remarks about each other in private – but over time they have developed a symbiotic relationship. This kind of social stress exists in all mega cities – where migrants come to play a greater economic role. But, there is no overt confrontation and over-time they learn to co-exist, even if a bit uneasily,  without treading on each others’ toes (or snatching another person’s bread to put it more crudely). Calcutta has been no different in that respect – neither more nor less, I would say.

Changing gears slightly – a friend from Bihar, always told me – you Bengalis know nothing about caste system. I take that as a compliment. For myself – I first came to appreciate the realities of class conflicts, when as a Management Trainee I went to live in a village in the backward Etah District of UP – way back in 1984. Sadly, things have only deteriorated since then rather than improving , I am told, with newer denominations among Dalits and “Maha-dalits” emerging. When as a young couple we went to live in Pune in the mid-80’s – we were quite bemused at the ‘caste profiling’ even among the educated and elite Maharshtrians. How easily people typecast between Kokanasths, Saraswaths, Deshasths and CKPs. And, they had difficulty in fitting us into any of those classifications – as we were quite blissfully oblivious of our caste origins.

Last year, before the elections, Ashish Chakravarty – the much respected Senior Editor of The Telegraph – made a very incisive observation on a TV talk-show. He said, traditionally, Bengali Muslims never voted along communal lines. They were politically conscious and  concerned citizens as anyone else. But, this has changed in the recent past – with political parties trying play the minorities card even in West Bengal. Trinamool’s success in the last 2 elections has been largely a function of swaying some of this minority vote in their favour as statistics would reveal. Therefore, you now see bill-boards and posters of Mamata Banerjee wearing head-scarves – greeting people in Eid or welcoming back “Haj” pilgrims. She kind of turned the tables on the CPM by doing this – as they could,  by philosophy, not play the “religious” game – but had turned a blind eye on illegal immigration from across the border in the interest of creating a vote-bank for themselves. The strategy boomeranged when the Sachar Committee report indicted them for the poor lot of Muslims in West Bengal, which Mamata was quick to capitalize upon.

Well, I don’t think the issue needs further elaboration. I am afraid the secular credentials of Bengal are under risk of being surreptitiously subverted. In my private conversations, with some of my business associates from the Marwari community, I find a growing support for the BJP – as they feel the need for having a voice of their own in the state polity. Before, every elections now – we find the Lalus and Paswans making forays to the state to mobilize the Bihari and UP-ite constituency in Calcutta and North Bengal.

It would require a great measure of statesmanship – to arrest this disturbing trend – which, I am not sure, if the present Chief Minister ( or to be fair to her, any other leader of the present generation ) has it in her. Therefore, it is for the citizens and intelligentsia of the state to rise above these parochialism and re-assert Bengal’s cherished culture of egalitarianism – if indeed we are serious about regaining some of the lost glory of the state (even if turning it into a London or Switzerland remains a pipe dream of Mamata Banerjee). And, to do that – the media has to play a major role. But, in their pursuit for ‘eye-balls’ - TRPs and circulation – wonder if anyone has the time for such old world values.

It’ll be a real set back if we lose it though’ – as it would, like so many other things have, turn on its head the old saying of  Gokhale - which would now have to be re-written as “What India thought yesterday, Bengal will think tomorrow”.

Virgins don't (always) wear bras !!

My friend an cuz-in-law Aakar calls Advani the 'worst kind of extremist' because - he lacks sense of proportion and use the extreme end of language (Read Aakar's Column in Mint) By that token - Bengalis are congenitally extremists. See the euphoria after the Trinamool victory. There were similar jubilation in 1977 - when the Left Front came back to power and again 5 years back when Buddha was annointed as the new messiah of Bengal. Why do we have to always swing between 2 extremes ? Even if the Left had to be taught a lesson - did we have to decimate them so totally ? A little moderation would have been good for everyone. Perhaps, even the CPM wouldn't have gone so much off the handle - if they had a strong opposition in the assembly. We now run the same risk with Trinamool. But, then we have never been good at treading the middle-ground.

The front page of yesterday's The Telegraph, Calcutta's (still) leading English daily - is a symbol of such kind of 'extremism'. The same newspaper group had gone ga-ga over Buddha earlier (to the extent that, people started joking that their flagship iconic publication should be re-christened "Ananda-shakti" - a la Ganashakti - the official mouthpiece of CPM) and had backed him to the hilt on the Singur and Nano. (They have a history of 'extremism' tho' - one remembers the photograph of Sanjay Gandhi vertically straddling half of the ABP's front-page during the Emergency). But, yesterday's paper took the cake. Even the mast-head was relegated to the bottom of the page. All the inside pages were separately numbered in roman numerals and captioned "Green Revolution" with the Trinamool emblem embedded in it. To me, it looked almost like a paid advertorial supplement of Trinamool. (See The Telegraph - epaper)

I couldn't resist sending in my tuppence worth of reader feedback per SMS to my Oxford educated editor friend of the paper and , taking the liberty of, also marking a copy to his boss - the Editor-in-Chief. The friend was dismissive - he wrote back "Your opinion to which you are welcome". But, his boss - who always loves a good argument - was more indulgent. He replied that - even respected UK newspapers are known to do this if the occasion so demanded. He cited 9/11 and major royal events (death of Lady Di ?) and asked me to judge the paper by it's content (as to whether it read like a 'paid supplement' ) rather than go by the looks. I tried to stump him by asking - if pushing the mast-head down to the bottom of the page didn't tantamount to violating the "virginity" of the front-page of which I have known him to be fiercely protective. He was quick to retort - "agree it should be rare and far between but virginity doesn't mean one always has to wear a bra ". Touche !!

But, what I didn't persist in asking him is - if likening Mamata's ascendancy with 9/11 and Lady Di's demise - would augur well for the state.

Like someone tweeted : Mamata is West Bengal's punishment for the sins of CPM.

(Read my earlier post on Mamata and Trinamool - apropos Singur : Nano Vision by clicking here)

Scribbles in-between flights

Managed to get out of Calcutta in the nick of time. Tired of early morning and late evening flights – had booked myself on the afternoon 3 O’ clock flight.. Couldn’t have timed it better, the city is now up in flames as a reaction against yesterday’s violence in Mangalkot (Burdawan) where some Congress leaders were assaulted by CPM cadres. Trust ABP and Star Ananda to come up with the news caption: "Mangal Kot e A-Mangal".

Nina wasn’t as lucky. She was planning on traveling tomorrow – but a 12-hour Bandh has been declared in the city. So, she can now get back only on Saturday - just in time for our trip to Pune.

The Speaker of the West Bengal Assembly - Hasim Abdul Halim – has gone on record today saying – “ the Police should be active - neither be ‘over-active’ or ‘in-active’. I have been at the receiving end of latter in the last few weeks – when despite instructions from the CM’s office the police has refused to move – ignoring orders of the District Administration.

Somehow – I get the feeling that Buddha will be Bengal’s Gorbachov. He will oversee the end of the Left Front rule in the state. As a friend remarked, unless Mamata works real hard at political suicide and self-destruction – there’s no stopping the Trinamool from coming to power in 2011........................


Landed in Mumbai to find the Meru cabs have been shunted out of the airport – under pressure from the Black and Yellow (Kali-peeli) and Blue (Cool) Cabs who were losing business to them. A new system of “pre-paid” cabs has been introduced from today – but being unhappy with the arrangement the Black and Yellow cabs went on a boycott. So …chaos !! After a long wait managed to get home in Blue Cab – finally !!........................

Went for the Bastille Day function in Calcutta on the 14th. A sedate affair (mercifully !!) in comparison to the massive gala in Mumbai – where, I believe, the crowd danced to “ Om Shanti Om” ( how typically French !! ...Carla would have loved it no doubt) till the wee hours ...…..

Till last year Calcutta didn’t have a full-fledged Consul. And, under the patronage of the “Hony Consul” - a prosperous city businessman - the celebrations were like a veritable “shaadi bari” – with long queues for dinner.

(Sunanda K Datta-Ray had written a piece some years back – about how Calcutta has been converted into a city of “Hony Consuls” – with more and more countries closing down their Consulates as cost-cutting measure. One, therefore, hardly saw the cars with “CC Number plates” anymore. They aree replaced by those marked “Hony Consuls”, which has become some kind of a status symbol in the business community)

But, the Sarkozy government isn’t so generous. Therefore, the consulate has to depend on ‘sponsors’ - usually French companies who have establishments in town or other businesses with some French connection – to pick up the bill for the wine and dinner. Since, Calcutta doesn’t have too many of these - the scale of the reception has to be necessarily modest.

The story isn’t very different for other countries – at least the European ones for sure – either. The Indian Embassies and Missions are among the few – who splurge on their National Day ( in fact – for us it’s 2 days – 26th January and Independence Day). Perhaps, an assertion of our new-found economic affluence........................

Atoned for the indulgences of the last few days – with a dinner of spinach, mushrooms and tofu blanched in sesame oil with some steamed broccoli on the side. Hope it is as healthy as it is made to sound.

Tho’, had a mean Khow-Suey with some lovely Riesling at the young Banerjees of Mandeville Gardens last evening.

Nano Vision

Undoubtedly much of it is posturing. And, almost certainly a compromise would be reached. Buddhadev Bhattacharya has already indicated that there could be a re-worked R & R plan, the Tatas will – possibly – also up their compensation. Overall the stakes are too high for all constituents. The state government cannot be seen to let another committed investor go- away. The Tatas for all their tough talking have gone too far down to pull out at this late stage – especially without a ‘Plan B’ ready they not only have shareholders to answer to but also can’t afford a loss of face internationally by a delayed launch (who might question their ability to run the JLR operations overseas when they have trouble managing their own backyard at home ) and, not to mention, the risk of losing their first mover advantage with competition breathing down their neck with plans for launching similar products soon. Mamata Banerjee too won’t be able to bear the cross of driving away investment from the state (One hears that she has already sent some feelers to the government on what could be some possible alternatives). So, it is a reasonably safe bet to place on the Nano rolling out of Singur – albeit after some breathtaking brink(wo)manship.

Brand Buddha & Mamata's Kurukshetra

Out of all this the CPM’s image will take a further beating, ‘Brand Buddha’ would lose some more basis points and his starched white Kurta ( ‘Punjabi’ as the Bongs call it for some strange reason ) would look a wee-bit crumpled. And, whether the urban intelligentsia likes it or not, either ways, it would be a huge symbolic victory for Mamata which would raise her stock in rural Bengal – her chosen ‘kurukshetra’ against the mighty Marxists . But, the ultimate loser will be West Bengal. Even if the Government is able to avert a pull-out of the Tatas, this will be a huge set-back which will put all but a paid stamp on any dreams of having an industrially resurgent Bengal in the foreseeable future. Forget new investors – even existing industries, the Tatas included, would lose confidence and think twice as hard before increasing their exposure in the state. There is absolutely no question that, the Tatas would not put any more monies behind this plant – possibly reducing its dependence on Singur as they set-up a second manufacturing facility elsewhere – for which they already have open offers from other states.

Singularly Singur

I do not know the facts about the land-acquisition Therefore, I cannot and would not like to comment on whether the land holders were treated fairly and a just and equitable R & R plan had been put in place to start with. Though I have heard – seemingly logical - arguments even within well-informed and knowledgeable circles that, incursion into prime agricultural land could have – perhaps – been avoided, by reclaiming the vast stretches of industrial land along the banks of the Hooghly – now lying unused after the Jute Mills shut-down and Engineering companies relocated to other parts of the country. But, apparently – such an option was not acceptable to the Tatas as the cost of industrial plots (that would have to be purchased from companies and business houses who have been holding on to them as valuable real-estate) would have been much more than agricultural land acquired through a decree of the state government. And, they singled out Singur ( Buddha himsel had said this) of all the locations that were shown to them due to its proximity to Calcutta. Then, there is also a view that, the state has acquired more land than was actually required for setting-up the factory – ostensibly for the ancillary units that might come up near the plant ( so Mamata Banerjee’s 400acre argument may not be entirely unfounded). It also appears a little curious that, the Tatas - who are past masters of land acquisition (with experience of over a century across the country - including troubled spots like Orissa and Bastar) did not engage with the local communities ahead of commencing construction activities, as is there routine practice elsewhere. They were possibly lulled into believing - by the forceful re-assurances of the Chief Minister - that, the land would come to them on a platter. Be that as it may, any which way one looks at it, it is a dismal failure of the government to deliver what was promised - for a flagship investment in the state after years of industrial drought.

Mamta Bashing

While Mamata bashing would be popular both for the media and the cosmopolitan intelligentsia, I would argue that she couldn’t have been expected to behave any differently. Aren’t politicians genetically coded to fish in troubled waters ? Would the CPM have acted any differently had they been in opposition ? Therefore, I wasn’t surprised in the least to see on television yesterday – the ubiquitous Amar Singh suddenly turning up by Mamata’s side addressing a rally in Singur. So, did Buddha underestimate Mamata or was he simply being politically naïve – as people believe he was in Nandigram, where they say he was taken for a royal ride by his own party’s local satraps who misled and misguided him at every step ? I think that at both these places the CPM was victim of its own arrogance – assuming that the party machinery was all powerful and would be able to steam-roll over any challenges on the ground. But, stuffing ballot boxes in successive elections to secure a thumping majority is not the same thing as dispossessing farmers from their land – for a party whose credo has been built by selling the dream of securing land for the landless.

–

Small isn't Bad

In many ways the very successes for which the CPM has been lauded during their three decades of uninterrupted rule in West Bengal has also been the cause of their undoing. First, it is not generally known that West Bengal is one of the best examples of a state where land reform has actually worked. Today, it ranks among the highest in terms of agricultural production among the states. With less than 3% of the cultivable land it accounts for nearly 8% of the country’s food grain production. It is number 1 in Rice and 28% of the country’s potato is produced in West Bengal – much of it grown in and around Singur. And, the biggest beneficiary of this agricultural boom has been the small farmer . West Bengal has become a case-study for the thesis - “Small is not necessarily bad”. With the exodus of industries in the 70s following the Naxalite movement and the natural demise of the Jute Mills, West Bengal has been converted into a primarily into an agrarian economy. Sadly some might say – but that’s the reality. The rise in per-capita income and the consequent increase in Purchasing power one has seen in the recent years have come essentially from the new-found rural prosperity. Therefore, displacement of the agricultural community – without providing alternate source of employment and income is bound to be a Herculean task. Who would have known this better than the CPM, which has thrived for decades on the politics of the land ownership? And, if Buddhadev Bhattacharya or his senior party colleagues didn’t anticipate this – then it can only be described as a monumental miscalculation of their collective leadership.

Either with us or against us

Secondly, West Bengal is almost unequivocally credited to be one state where Panchayati Raj is a reality. While critics my argue that – it was implemented with the sole objective of extending the party’s stranglehold to the village level and it is nothing but an elaborate machinery to ensure successive electoral victory through organized rigging – there’s no denying that grass-root democracy can be seen at work there unlike many other states across the country. But 30 years of rule does create a level of fatigue and an anti-incumbency factor. Besides, while industrialists from across the country – would unanimously vouch for “non-corrupt” credentials of the current CPM leadership at the state level, the same cannot always be said of their local leadership at the village, block or district levels. Instances of diversion of central grants and development funds are no longer unknown or exceptional, as evident from the changing life-style of many a local leader. And, a certain degree of totalitarianism is bound to have set in - with an " you are either with us or against us" attitude.

Shifting Battleground

It is these developing cracks in the CPM’s formidable armour that Mamata has been trying to exploit in the last few years. Recognising the growing disenchantment with the ruling party, she has intelligently shifted her battleground to rural West Bengal. Initially, she had tried to woo the urban elite by enlisting lawyers, doctors, retired bureaucrats and even generals into her ‘A’ team, but was quick to realize that these people were actually a drag on her fire-brand style and did not have the ability to garner votes. She also found that agitating over urban centric issues or getting embroiled in political equations at the Centre did little to add to her mass appeal or enlarge her vote bank in the political hinterland of Calcutta. Instead, she was better off taking on the Left in their own bastion. Much as everyone would like to deny it that, she has been making progress – may be inch by inch – as is evident from Nandigram, Singur and the recent Panchayat elections. She certainly ain't a Mayavati, but however eager her detractors may be to write her off as a misguided and spent force – she is also not going to disappear in a hurry.

Not in a Nano-second

So where does all this leave the Nano ? I believe the Tatas are faced with a Hobson’s choice. In an environment that has been sullied for good, the starting of the plant could just be the beginning of their troubled existence in the state. The CPM cannot undo in a Nano second what it has done over the decades in systematically purging the state of its industrial work-culture. And, Mamata wouldn’t do anything to help them either.