Tuesday, August 26, 2008

Nano Vision



Undoubtedly much of it is posturing. And, almost certainly a compromise would be reached. Buddhadev Bhattacharya has already indicated that there could be a re-worked R & R plan, the Tatas will – possibly – also up their compensation. Overall the stakes are too high for all constituents. The state government cannot be seen to let another committed investor go- away. The Tatas for all their tough talking have gone too far down to pull out at this late stage – especially without a ‘Plan B’ ready they not only have shareholders to answer to but also can’t afford a loss of face internationally by a delayed launch (who might question their ability to run the JLR operations overseas when they have trouble managing their own backyard at home ) and, not to mention, the risk of losing their first mover advantage with competition breathing down their neck with plans for launching similar products soon. Mamata Banerjee too won’t be able to bear the cross of driving away investment from the state (One hears that she has already sent some feelers to the government on what could be some possible alternatives). So, it is a reasonably safe bet to place on the Nano rolling out of Singur – albeit after some breathtaking brink(wo)manship.


Brand Buddha & Mamata's Kurukshetra

Out of all this the CPM’s image will take a further beating, ‘Brand Buddha’ would lose some more basis points and his starched white Kurta ( ‘Punjabi’ as the Bongs call it for some strange reason ) would look a wee-bit crumpled. And, whether the urban intelligentsia likes it or not, either ways, it would be a huge symbolic victory for Mamata which would raise her stock in rural Bengal – her chosen ‘kurukshetra’ against the mighty Marxists . But, the ultimate loser will be West Bengal. Even if the Government is able to avert a pull-out of the Tatas, this will be a huge set-back which will put all but a paid stamp on any dreams of having an industrially resurgent Bengal in the foreseeable future. Forget new investors – even existing industries, the Tatas included, would lose confidence and think twice as hard before increasing their exposure in the state. There is absolutely no question that, the Tatas would not put any more monies behind this plant – possibly reducing its dependence on Singur as they set-up a second manufacturing facility elsewhere – for which they already have open offers from other states.


Singularly Singur

I do not know the facts about the land-acquisition Therefore, I cannot and would not like to comment on whether the land holders were treated fairly and a just and equitable R & R plan had been put in place to start with. Though I have heard – seemingly logical - arguments even within well-informed and knowledgeable circles that, incursion into prime agricultural land could have – perhaps – been avoided, by reclaiming the vast stretches of industrial land along the banks of the Hooghly – now lying unused after the Jute Mills shut-down and Engineering companies relocated to other parts of the country. But, apparently – such an option was not acceptable to the Tatas as the cost of industrial plots (that would have to be purchased from companies and business houses who have been holding on to them as valuable real-estate) would have been much more than agricultural land acquired through a decree of the state government. And, they singled out Singur ( Buddha himsel had said this) of all the locations that were shown to them due to its proximity to Calcutta. Then, there is also a view that, the state has acquired more land than was actually required for setting-up the factory – ostensibly for the ancillary units that might come up near the plant ( so Mamata Banerjee’s 400acre argument may not be entirely unfounded). It also appears a little curious that, the Tatas - who are past masters of land acquisition (with experience of over a century across the country - including troubled spots like Orissa and Bastar) did not engage with the local communities ahead of commencing construction activities, as is there routine practice elsewhere. They were possibly lulled into believing - by the forceful re-assurances of the Chief Minister - that, the land would come to them on a platter. Be that as it may, any which way one looks at it, it is a dismal failure of the government to deliver what was promised - for a flagship investment in the state after years of industrial drought.


Mamta Bashing

While Mamata bashing would be popular both for the media and the cosmopolitan intelligentsia, I would argue that she couldn’t have been expected to behave any differently. Aren’t politicians genetically coded to fish in troubled waters ? Would the CPM have acted any differently had they been in opposition ? Therefore, I wasn’t surprised in the least to see on television yesterday – the ubiquitous Amar Singh suddenly turning up by Mamata’s side addressing a rally in Singur. So, did Buddha underestimate Mamata or was he simply being politically naïve – as people believe he was in Nandigram, where they say he was taken for a royal ride by his own party’s local satraps who misled and misguided him at every step ? I think that at both these places the CPM was victim of its own arrogance – assuming that the party machinery was all powerful and would be able to steam-roll over any challenges on the ground. But, stuffing ballot boxes in successive elections to secure a thumping majority is not the same thing as dispossessing farmers from their land – for a party whose credo has been built by selling the dream of securing land for the landless.


Small isn't Bad

In many ways the very successes for which the CPM has been lauded during their three decades of uninterrupted rule in West Bengal has also been the cause of their undoing. First, it is not generally known that West Bengal is one of the best examples of a state where land reform has actually worked. Today, it ranks among the highest in terms of agricultural production among the states. With less than 3% of the cultivable land it accounts for nearly 8% of the country’s food grain production. It is number 1 in Rice and 28% of the country’s potato is produced in West Bengal – much of it grown in and around Singur. And, the biggest beneficiary of this agricultural boom has been the small farmer . West Bengal has become a case-study for the thesis - “Small is not necessarily bad”. With the exodus of industries in the 70s following the Naxalite movement and the natural demise of the Jute Mills, West Bengal has been converted into a primarily into an agrarian economy. Sadly some might say – but that’s the reality. The rise in per-capita income and the consequent increase in Purchasing power one has seen in the recent years have come essentially from the new-found rural prosperity. Therefore, displacement of the agricultural community – without providing alternate source of employment and income is bound to be a Herculean task. Who would have known this better than the CPM, which has thrived for decades on the politics of the land ownership? And, if Buddhadev Bhattacharya or his senior party colleagues didn’t anticipate this – then it can only be described as a monumental miscalculation of their collective leadership.

Either with us or against us

Secondly, West Bengal is almost unequivocally credited to be one state where Panchayati Raj is a reality. While critics my argue that – it was implemented with the sole objective of extending the party’s stranglehold to the village level and it is nothing but an elaborate machinery to ensure successive electoral victory through organized rigging – there’s no denying that grass-root democracy can be seen at work there unlike many other states across the country. But 30 years of rule does create a level of fatigue and an anti-incumbency factor. Besides, while industrialists from across the country – would unanimously vouch for “non-corrupt” credentials of the current CPM leadership at the state level, the same cannot always be said of their local leadership at the village, block or district levels. Instances of diversion of central grants and development funds are no longer unknown or exceptional, as evident from the changing life-style of many a local leader. And, a certain degree of totalitarianism is bound to have set in - with an " you are either with us or against us" attitude.


Shifting Battleground

It is these developing cracks in the CPM’s formidable armour that Mamata has been trying to exploit in the last few years. Recognising the growing disenchantment with the ruling party, she has intelligently shifted her battleground to rural West Bengal. Initially, she had tried to woo the urban elite by enlisting lawyers, doctors, retired bureaucrats and even generals into her ‘A’ team, but was quick to realize that these people were actually a drag on her fire-brand style and did not have the ability to garner votes. She also found that agitating over urban centric issues or getting embroiled in political equations at the Centre did little to add to her mass appeal or enlarge her vote bank in the political hinterland of Calcutta. Instead, she was better off taking on the Left in their own bastion. Much as everyone would like to deny it that, she has been making progress – may be inch by inch – as is evident from Nandigram, Singur and the recent Panchayat elections. She certainly ain't a Mayavati, but however eager her detractors may be to write her off as a misguided and spent force – she is also not going to disappear in a hurry.

Not in a Nano-second

So where does all this leave the Nano ? I believe the Tatas are faced with a Hobson’s choice. In an environment that has been sullied for good, the starting of the plant could just be the beginning of their troubled existence in the state. The CPM cannot undo in a Nano second what it has done over the decades in systematically purging the state of its industrial work-culture. And, Mamata wouldn’t do anything to help them either.

20 comments:

  1. Yes, it is true that communist have given "gherao" word to Oxford dictionary. But if we think that communist are reaping what they have sown, we will be the ultimate losers. Without industrialisation Bengal cannot move ahead.

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  2. Excellent Article... an eye opener of sorts for me. I will keep an eye on West Bengal politice from now on, and see things from a more informed position!

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  3. Great analysis!
    One thing that has always struck and impressed me is the extent to which people of west bengal are politically aware and active. But the same thing has also puzzled me as for why then do they blindly follow CPI-M and its sometimes retro-policies..
    Whatever be the outcome in this case, the state of west bengal would be the biggest loser. It discourages not only the new investors but also demoralizes the existing ones.

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  4. Hi Sandip, great article, did not know about WB's land reforms!
    -Doorva

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  5. It is primarily a case of management failure by the Tata group. They have failed to manage the environment, failed to ensure proper R&R programme for the farmers and now they are passing the buck to the politics of Bengal. That will not go down well with the shareholders of Tata Motors. I recently saw a programme called Uncommon Ground on NDTV where Medha Patkar and Anand Mahindra were arguing about displacement of farmland and I was quite pleased to hear Anand Mahindra say that they would rather do private negotiations with farmers and deal with the issues themselves rather than leave to governments. He also said that they would go for land acquisition in less fertile areas. This is quite opposite of what the Tatas did and ended up in the current stalemate situation.

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  6. Not Kurukshetra, this will be Mamata Banerjee's Waterloo.

    She expected some form of force to try and breakup her sit in, it has not happened. On the contrary the truckers are now furious, the local youngsters who are now employed in the Nano factory are fedup and getting angry. http://www.telegraphindia.com/1080830/jsp/frontpage/story_9764323.jsp

    Every bengali with optimal IQ who has seen industries move away from the state wants the Tatas to succeed.

    Every state needs industries and investments. This very Left Front crippled the state for thirty years with their policies - we lost out to the rest of the nation.

    We atlast have a business group that has gone against the trend and decided to invest in Bengal. This is for the benefit of many.

    In every state, every country, someone has to give up their land so that such developments can progress. Roads, railway, airports and indeed factories. What a true opposition should do is make sure that those losing out gets a decent compensation - not incite the locals.

    What Mamata Banerjee is doing at present is trying to provoke a violent confrontation, get headlines and blood-splattered photographs on newspapers; she doesn’t give a toss for the farmers, or for the state - she is desperate only to stay in the political lime light.

    She has rejected all forms of dialogue, misquoted the correspondence from Tata - to bring her demand to one single issue - return of land. She has left herself no escape route.

    She has voluntarily positioned herself in a corner - but the courtyard is empty. The longer this "Dharna" continues, the more ridiculous will be her position.

    This, hopefully, will be a political euthanasia for Ms Bannerjee.

    If she wins, the State of W Bengal is doomed for 30 more years. The majority, like myself, will never forgive her.
    Nor trust her.
    If she loses she is finished as a politician.

    Did I say politician?
    I apologise, I meant a drama queen.

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  7. A company getting involved in land acquisition is not a right thing. If a state is so keen on having such ambitious industry, the state has to provide this support. Remember, this is not some industry which has to be setup only in WB due to natural resources proximity or even port proximity. So, WB should have gone all out to support Tatas.

    Also, land acquisition in the current real estate scenario is not an easy one, with all the greedy prices getting quoted by the owners.
    See here, Tamilnadu government has decided for the first time to support land acquisition for Tata steel that too when Titanium dioxide is present only in Tamilnadu.
    http://www.business-standard.com/india/storypage.php?autono=326237

    Overall, this incident has raised my respect over Mr.Ratan Tata. I think he really wanted to set up a factory in WB thus helping the state overcome its past image of being unfriendly with Industrialisation. That might still be the reason for Tatas to being waiting patiently till the last minute.

    Maybe, the last minute has come now.
    http://timesnow.tv/Newsdtls.aspx?NewsID=14812

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  8. Dear Little-Indian and Anonyomous,

    Couldn't agree with you more. As I have written in the blog, any which way we look at it, it's a "failure" of the state government to "deliver". ( The eg Anonymous sites of Tamil Nadu only re-inforces this point):

    I have only a few comments / questions to ask:

    1) how many youth of Singur are getting emplyment in The Tata plant against the number of families being displaced - do we have the numbers?

    2) if the state governmnet is so convinced about their stand and having the backing of the majority (both of the electorate and their own party and their left front) why aren't they going full-steam ahead and blasting the resistence of Mamata and her "bhmi ucched committee) , especially as one of you say, "the last minute" hs arrived;

    3) tho' Little Indian feels that he is in the "majority" ( and I am with him all the way ) - I wouldn't be too sure going by the results of the recent Panchayat elections;

    4) and, finally - who has brought the state to this point ? and, who has been responsible for the political resurrection of Mamata after she was written off as a 'spent political force' in the last general elections. one needs a little introspection on that. and, wasn't there a slight under-estimation to think that the "tide" can be turned undoing the legacy of the past 30 years - so easily ?

    i do hope it is indeed Mamata's Waterloo and not her Kurukshetra (tho' someone lost in the Kurekshetra too - and by no means it was my suggestion that the Trinamool represent the Pandavas).

    for the sake of West Bengal - i too wish the very best for the Tatas

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  9. going by the number of retractions and apologies Buddha offers - one feels that he should have joined a religious order instead of being in politics.

    but the, i am not sure which religious organistion would accepted him in teir fold. as Swami Vivekananda used to say - being a monk also requires conviction and bias for action.

    going by his record of nandigram and singur - he doesn't seem to display either.

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  10. Hiya
    @ anonymous - I am in two minds about Buddhadeb Bhattacharyya's retractions/apologies.

    For sometimes I have the feeling he may have different principles but is forced to toe the party line.

    The other is of course it is all clever politics, giving Ms Bannerjee a long rope to hang herself.

    I guess we have to wait and see.

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  11. @ Sandip Ghose,

    I have no sympathies for the Left.

    They are getting a taste of their own medicine. But so unfortunately as you say, at the expense of the future of our state.

    Considering that the state has suffered / gone backwards for 30 years, this was the ideal opportunity for a strong opposition to change the rules. To let tata go ahead and make it a success would have been the best way of showing everyone what the Left had deprived us for so many years.

    Mamata Bannerjee should have been fighting for maximising compensation for those who have to hand over their land, not create a fiasco.

    I am unable to find on the net the number of opposing individuals who were landowners themselves and have lost their farmland. Which makes me think it cannot be many - or Mamata Bannerjee would have made an issue of it. Claims of upto 2 lakhs are being made but that of numbers who may be affected by loss of agriculture - this is a vague and random figure that I believe can never be proved or disproved.

    I may not be in the majority who will vote for her in the Panchayat Polls, but I am in the majority of the group who have watched the negatives of both sides and is capable of an unbiased and rational judgement.

    Ours is the voice that can go beyond the borders of Bengal.

    I am late in joining the discussions on this issue, but am surprised not to find more voices raising concerns on the net. Or am I not searching right engines?

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  12. as another leading automotive manufacturer ( who some have been insituating as the ‘money bag’ behind Mamata and her Singur agitation ) put it very aptly on TV the other day - people are losing their objectivity. Now it is either that - if you are pro-Tata then you must be anti-Mamata or vice-versa. He asked why is it necessary to be 100% with one or the other. The objective truth as always must li somewhere in between.

    in my humble opinion - in trying to play a dangerous game of brinkmanship - all 3 sides ( the CPM, Tatas and Mamata) have terribly over-played their hands (cards). In all this the CPM has come out looking the most pitiable.

    it’s a sorry site to see the CM and his Industries Minister - who have always protested against the Governor exceeding his Consitutional authority and interfering in executive or political matters - tamely joining the queue at the Raj Bhavan seeking his “mediation” to resolve a crisis.

    this is what i would call eating the ‘humble pie’. and, for some others - next time round they should think twice before making a dig about a politician at a product launch.

    would love to have your comments..

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  13. I am fed up with this stand off.

    The damage has already been done.
    Fairmont Hotels & Resorts has dropped Kolkata from their plans to invest.
    I only see a domino effect.

    I now hope Tata does shift to another state.

    We W Bengal, have elected this Left front for 30 years and still haven't learnt our lessons.

    We let individuals like Mamata Banerjee take us back another 30 years and applaud her theatrics.

    We are morons, let us admit it and live with it.

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  14. The new Tata-Sky ad with - could apply very well to the Nano - Tango. Just imagine Mamata and Ratan instead of Amir in a double role. Only problem is - where do we fit in Buddha and Gopal in all this. Look at it in any which way, it's "Life Jhinga-lala" in Singur or as the Bongs would say "Khela Jomecche" :-)

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