PV Narasimha Rao - PM of Destiny

Just finished reading Sanjaya Baru’s new book — on 1991 and P V Narasimha Rao. (Article first published in +Medium click here to read)

In an increasingly polarised (and biased) world of journalism — Baru is from a fast vanishing tribe, who are able to keep facts separate from opinions and loyalties. He is one of the remaining few — who believe in research and corroboration through reading and interviews and do not pass off anecdotal evidence (read gossip) as “inside knowledge”.

Being an economic journalist and a seasoned political observer — Baru was particularly well placed to write this book that is as much about Narasimha Rao as it is regarding the economic watershed in India’s post-independence history. 1991 could have been a turning point for Indian politics as well had the Dynasty not struck back with vengeance — reducing PVNR from a man of destiny to a footnote in history.

It is divine retribution, perhaps, that after 25 years — there is a reassessment of his contribution restoring in small measure his rightful place as one who has significantly steered the country onto a new trajectory despite odds.

I have already tweeted a lot of snippets from the book as I was reading it. It is a serious chronicle of a very important period that may not interest a lay reader looking for juicy tidbits of the PVNR years. Therefore, it may not become a best-seller like his previous book The Accidental Prime Minister — which had a lot of ‘masala’ as it were. But, this is serious stuff for the archives.

Finally — the question that I was left with when I put down the book — was a counter-factual one: Where would India have been today — if it did not have the Nehru — Gandhi Dynasty ruling it (directly or via proxy) for the better part of 70 years ? My simplistic conjecture in hindsight are as follows:

If Patel or someone other than Nehru had become the first Prime Minister — it is most likely he would have still followed the Soviet model of Planned Development with a dominance of Public Sector, while paying lip service to the concept of Mixed Economy. But, where they would have most likely differed is on Nehru’s policy on Kashmir and China and probably not made the same mistakes.

Besides, we would have seen stricter enforcement of both economic legislation as well as general law and order in the country — arguably with lesser corruption. Most importantly — as PM they would have been the “first among equals” and not created a cult like Nehru — to lay the seeds of four generations of Dynastic Rule to follow.

One common thread in Baru’s recent works — are two Congress Prime Ministers, who achieved whatever they did despite the Gandhi family (specifically Sonia Gandhi)’s shadow.

There is little reason to believe — if Lal Bahadur Shastri could take Pakistan head-on in 1965 — someone else in his place would not have acted similar to what Indira Gandhi did in 1971. Also, probably, there would not have been the Emergency of 1975.

Going by Baru’s account — the country would have been better off economically if guided by professional economists and not suffered from the compromises of populist policies for the survival of a single family.

Finally, just to please the Left Libs on my time-line, it might have prevented the Hindutva backlash and, therefore, the rise of a Narendra Modi.

#SanjayaBaru #PVNarasimhaRao #SoniaGandhi #NarendraModi

From Panchsheel to 'High Five'

Modi in US

Prime Minister Narendra Modi (C) shakes hands with members of Congress after addressing a joint meeting of the U.S. Congress in the House Chamber of the U.S. Capitol June 8, 2016 in Washington, DC. PIC/AFP. (photo courtesy ABP News)

Article first published in +ABP NEWS Click here

Is it just we Indians that lose all sense of objectivity — while judging the performance of our leaders abroad? Or does it happen only when Narendra Modi speaks to an international audience? With him — critiques and supporters — tend to ignore substance and content to focus on form, accent, pronunciation, attire and historical gaffes.

Surely Americans made fun of Bushisms, disagreed and criticized his policies — but none disrespected “The President”. The same was true for Sarkozy, perhaps. And, I am willing to bet though his “democratic” detractors may ridicule Donald Trump — should he be elected POTUS their attitude will change overnight.

I recall at an event in New Delhi in which Robert Giuliani was speaking. A British delegate from Hong Kong asked a question referring to Bush as “Rambo”. Oh boy, one had to see to believe how Giuliani tore him apart to shreds. That’s what I call national pride.

The real point to note after a speech — in my view  -is neither form nor even content — but impact. This is where Modi scores above many other world leaders of the day. I am even willing to grant that — Americans are trained and programmed to clap, cheer and rise for standing ovations. Therefore, it doesn’t really matter whether they stood up 60+ times for #Modi and only 33 times for Man Mohan Singh. What really matters is how much of Modi’s speech has registered and resonated with them — what jarred, perhaps — and what was the overall perception and ultimate takeaway.

True Rajiv Gandhi also created an impression. So, would have Nehru and Indira Gandhi in the context of their times. But, a few crucial differences have emerged since then. First, the world order has changed since the end of the cold war. Just as nature abhors vacuum — a menacingly rising China is fast filling up space given away in the disintegration of the Soviet Union. But, even more significant is the rise of terror (largely Islamic) across the world. On all these scores India’s strategic importance for the US has exponentially increased.

In this revised equation — India is, arguably, the only viable entity to offer some degree of foil to China in South Asia. All other countries in the region — not just Pakistan but Bangladesh, Sri Lanka, Maldives and Myanmar would only be too willing play footsie (and, more) with China. On fighting terror — the trustworthiness of these countries — especially — Pakistan is even more suspect.
Of course, for the US — Pakistan is not wholly dispensable. If not anything — it has huge potential of damage. So despite bluffing them on Osama and acting as double agents for Taliban — the US can’t afford to dump them altogether. But, certainly Pakistan cannot hope to remain the favourite Asian nephew of the Americans.

One can justifiably argue that, any other Indian Prime Minister in Modi’s place would have also caught on to this reality and recalibrated foreign policy accordingly. But, herein lies the importance of body language and confidence.

Modi’s success lies in seizing the moment and hitting the message home. No one would have the illusion that India can claim a status of an ‘equal’ with America. But, it can certainly expect to be regarded as the “first among equals” — when it comes to America’s Asia game plan. Here Modi has played his cards eminently well and through a series of smart moves become from a “persona non-grata” to a good-friend of Barrack  – even exchanging high fives in private — if some reports are to be believed.

A long way really from  -the pious platitudes of Panchsheel, Non-Alignment and the “good-friends” spiel.

BJP Old Guard Revolt

In this rebellion do we have the seeds of a BJP (M) in the making - a la Congress (I) of Indira - when she took on the "syndicate"

Article first published in +DailyO India Today  Click here to read reproduced here

On last Sunday evening in Delhi, I was the solitary "mourner" at an impromptu bash in the house of a senior journalists in Delhi, who were celebrating their accurate prediction of the Bihar results. I agreed to be included since alcohol helps as much to uplift the spirit as it does to dissolve sorrow. Somewhere down a few pegs - an easy equilibrium is struck - when both sets hit the same wavelength. So after a few drinks - we were discussing how knives will soon be out in BJP. Leading commentators also wrote to the same effect ("Modi to face the heat" or "the bumpy road to 2019") But, little did one expect such quick "viagra-fication" of the old guard (average age 82).

Of course, as expected Shourie was the first to get off the block. While it may have been clear he was being the spokesman of a certain section - who from "sour grapes" turned into the "we told you so" rabbis - few did anticipate that he was the forerunner for the octogenarian band to follow. Whether planned or coincidental - the timing couldn't have been more opportune with Modi taking off to the UK - a visit if cancelled he would appear like a tin-pot dictator who had to return home to quell a rebellion.

Though irony may die a thousand deaths - Congress would be naive not to capitalize on the developments - whether with Chidambaram talking of fireworks before Diwali ( though Tamil Diwali was over this morning) or Surjewalla complimenting the BJP "elders" for speaking out what the nation already knew but was afraid to say. One cannot also grudge the "liberal" detractors of BJP rejoicing over what could potentially be the fall of the pin-striped chaiwallah.

Without taking off on "conspiracy theories" - which may not be entirely unfounded - that would have required a master scriptwriter with multiple producers, directors and actors - it may be said there was a well laid out plan to waylay Modi - which he and Amit Shah (under Jaitley's ill-advised counsel) naively walked into. If Advani & Co were genuine well-wishers of the party - they wouldn't have taken the battle public even while building pressure internally for some heads to roll. But, to seek the replacement of a General immediately after a defeat or a Captain after losing a series - smacks of malice and destructive intentions.

Hopefully, a person as astute as Modi - with his own network of intelligence - would not have been unaware of the forces working against him - though he might have erred on the timing and intensity of the strike. So, what are the options before him ? I would appear that so far - in the last 18 months he has tried to balance and accommodate various interest groups within the "Parivar" hoping that they would sort themselves out over time. It doesn't require supra-mental powers to decipher Modi would have banked heavily on the Bihar results for putting to rest opposition both outside and within the part - a miscalculation that tragically backfired for which he has only himself, Amit Shah and, perhaps to some extent, Jaitley to blame. So what are the options ahead of him ? Seeking a compromise - and coming to an understanding with RSS and other hostile groups within the party may not be a solution. 

Modi one reckons is a "lambe daur ka ghoda". He has bided his time to become the PM and he isn't a politician in a hurry. So, in the short term, he has to play for high stakes - like an Indira Gandhi who took on the "syndicate" and gambled with splitting the party. This might mean his going back to the people - even with the possibility of losing the polls to a hurriedly cobbled-up Mahagathbandhan. But, then he would every chance of making a comeback with a vengeance - having purged the BJP of its baggage and dead-weight (be it of RSS or the "Old-Guard") - building from scratch a true Right wing party tailored for modern times and modern challenges.

"Vanishing" Poriborton

So Mamata completes a year in office.  In the coming days newspapers , magazines and television  will try to outdo one another with articles and features analyzing ad nauseam her  performance so far, to which – no doubt -  Op-Ed writers and “Bidwojon-s” of  the National Media will add their wisdom and pass  ‘interim’ judgment. So,  thought it is an opportune time for me to tuck-in my 2 penny bits to it before other illustrious and more qualified people get into the act.

A very senior Delhi-based columnist and media commentator, a non-resident Bong, has been commissioned by a top national magazine to do such a piece on Trinamool’s 365 days in power. I was mildly flattered, when he invited me for a beer at one of the clubs – to have my take on some of the issues. And, it took  me just a swig of Kingfisher to launch into my pet rant on everything that Mamata and TMC seem to be doing wrong.

But, about half-way through our conversation, I paused like a subject on a therapist’s chair, and asked – wait a minute, are we being entirely fair to her? After a while – we both agreed, it’s probably too early to write her off yet and the jury is still out.  Disenchantment is a creeping process – though it may not take another 34 years, as it did to throw CPIM out – it’ll be some more time before it turns into a tide against her.  For that to happen earlier, she has to commit some terrible blunders – which she probably won’t, as – at the end of the day – she has too much political horse-sense to know she can’t mess around with her constituency beyond a point.

Megalomania or Incipient Paranoia

Yet, she is beginning to show disturbing signs of megalomania. Her intolerance to criticism, vulnerability to flattery and sycophancy  and – what the famous Ashish Nandy calls  - incipient “paranoia” (they want to “vanish” me ), reveals some shades of Indira Gandhi in the height of power. Though, it would be rather harsh to call them fascist traits as few die-hard cynics might tend to do.

Again like Indira Gandhi followed a different agenda at home and abroad – Mamata has a different line in the state and another one for the centre. When in Delhi, she flirts with non-Congress CMs to play the ‘federalism’ card (NCTC) , takes adversarial positions with the Centre on matters of fund allocation to the state and policy issues such as FDI in Retail. She wants to be consulted foreign policy issues with neighbours (Bangladesh - Teesta).  These too are reminiscent of Mrs Gandhi’s and parallels can be drawn with her dalliance with the Soviets and the “Non-aligned” Block or trying to prop up SAARC.  Back in Calcutta – she reverts to IG’s “Garibi Hatao” like populist chant of “Ma, Mati, Manush”.

Take a deep breath

There’s absolutely no denying , what brought  Mamata to power is her  call for change – “Poriborton” . But, while capitalizing on it for electoral success – she hasn’t been able to harness the goodwill, enthusiasm and positive energy of the masses for transformation of the state.  Something that, a Nitish Kumar in Bihar and Narendra Modi has been able to do. Today, one can feel a palpable pride among the Biharis – which has also been transmitted to the Diaspora living across the country and even overseas. In Gujrat too – the heightened sense of  chauvinism fuelled by the  state’s success in almost every field  is there for all to see – not just at the Vibrant Gujrat summits or the Amitabh Bacchan’s “Breathe in a bit of Gujrat’ TVCs.  ( See one by clicking here http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VdcEqUtTcfc )

Attitude is everything

What is needed to transform Bengal – is a change in the work culture and attitude of people. Industry and investment will come in only with that – not by trying to market the state by signing up Sharukh Khan as Brand Ambassador and holding Bengal Leads or Rising Bengal Summits – a la Gujrat.

And, no one was better placed to do that than Mamata Banerjee. Even her worst critics would admit, Mamata’s singular strength is her ability to connect with people.  it's not for nothing that, TIME Magazine has named her among the 100 most influential persons in the world today. She has an earthy charisma and the girl from down the lane who-made-it-good  appeal, which she could use to her advantage to become a truly inspirational leader of the masses. Her call for change shouldn’t have ended with asking for votes for a change of guard at Writers’ Building – but going much beyond that to imbue the people with a new spirit of determination and enthusiasm to transform the state from within. Alas, this is where she has failed  to rise to the challenge and display the qualities expected of a visionary leader.

Governance is the key

The second issue where she seems to be completely out of depth – and in which both Nitish and Modi have scored spectacularly – is governance.  This is an area she should focus on to salvage the state from the morass it is swamped in. To do that would mean two things. One she has to cut off the politicians and establish direct channels of administration – as Nitish, Modi and – to some extent – even a Navin Patnaik has done.  But, perhaps – she can’t do that because she needs her party network to counter the grass-root machinery of the CPIM.

In the process, she is weakening the state administration, without - perhaps - realizing it,  even more than what it used to be during the Left Front rule. This is coupled with her lack of trust in her won colleagues and the scant regard with which she treats the bureaucracy or officials (as was evident in her action against  the South Calcutta Dy. Commissioner of Police, Damayanti Sen after the Park Street “rape” incident or from the peremptory manner in which she deals with senior  bureaucrats in public).

Forget a Nitish or Modi – who have some of the most competent and progressive officers  working for them , whom they have empowered completely –  a Mayawati or Akhilesh Yadav  too realize the importance of an efficient bureaucracy. People may have different views on the things Mayawati  (or, say  Jayalalitha  in her previous terms ), may have done in her 5 years – be it building gigantic monuments or getting private operators of her choice to make world-class Expressways. But, she couldn’t have achieved any of it without having officers with strong execution capabilities under her. And, all of them realize the importance of law and order in governance. So, even the detractors of Mayawati credit her for retrieving UP from “goonda raj”.

Listening (in)ability

The next is the ‘trust’ factor. All good leaders have a few strong aides, political managers and administrators around them. They understand the value of experience.  But, Mamata doesn’t make use of talent.  She has made all the capable people around her ciphers. A Subrata Mukherjee or Saugata Roy – could very well have played the role of elder statesmen in the party or government. But, they have been sidelined. The story of Dinesh Trivedy is well known. An Amit Mitra and Manish Gupta are non-entities in her scheme of things. She is the No 1, 2 and 3 of the party as people say of Sonia in the Congress (the cartoon below could have would be true of her as well  - just that no cartoonist would dare lampoon her anymore).  A leader must also have the time and patience to “listen”. But, she loves the sound of her own voice too much and is a narcissist when it comes to her own thoughts and ideas. 

But, more dangerously - perhaps - she seems to believe she alone has all the answers. someone joked, after Tagore, Mamata is probably the most versatile personality in the history of modern Bengal . She is at once a politician, an administrator, an artist, a poet, a singer, a town-planner, an educationist. The list can go on.

She is not Caesar’s wife. She is (still) single

The last count on which she makes me extremely worried is corruption. All said and done – during the Left Front regime “corruption” was almost miniscule – as compared to the rest of the country.  There is an apocryphal story about a late CPIM leader having gone to a non-resident Bengali  tycoon, who had the reputation of being a ‘banker’ to many politicians, asking if would keep some of his money. It seems the tycoon told him – 'I don’t deal in small change, first learn to earn and then come to me".

This is changing very fast.  And, perhaps unalterably so. It is common knowledge that Trinamool is breeding all pervading corruption in the system and her party workers and leaders are all on the take, trying to make a quick buck while it lasts.  I don’t believe this is something Mamata is unaware of. Though personally, she may be unimpeachable (it would probably be an affront to her maidenhood to compare her with Caesar’s wife) – but, perhaps, she is helpless as this is a by-product of the political structure and organization she has created.  But, if left unchecked this may come to haunt her soon.

Bengal at a cusp

In most marriages the ‘honeymoon’ lasts for some time. But, there are some in which the trauma and ordeal start from the nuptial night itself.  This one seems to be like that. But, there are instances in which the most troubled relationships settle down over time and even give way to love. Let’s hope this turns out to be a case of the latter.

So, as I said at the start, it may be too early to put a ‘paid’ stamp on the Poriborton bill. Mamata (and, by association West Bengal) is standing at a cusp. From here things can go either way.  With intelligence and some amount of  wisdom and vision Mamata can check the secular decline of West Bengal and change its trajectory like Nitish has done to Bihar or Modi has been able to accelerate in Gujrat. The sad contra scenario could be, she would  take it down like Lalu – not by her lack of integrity or intent (as Lalu had )  – but by sheer administrative incompetence.