The Winner takes it all..and...'Ekla Chalo Re'

So, Modi is all set to be "crowned" tomorrow - after what may be called a watershed - election. It turned out to be a real "The Winner Takes It All" victory - stunning the whole nation.

In a first of sorts, Heads of Government from all SAARC countries, Maldives and Mauritius will attend the ceremony along with over 2500 Indian dignitaries. Conspicuous by her absence will be the Chief Minister of West Bengal Mamata Banerjee.  Earlier it was reported, she had advised all newly elected MPs of her party to stay away from the function. But, on second thoughts - perhaps, she is deputing two trusted emissaries - Amit Mitra, Finance Minister of West Bengal, and Mukul Roy, General Secretary of Trinamool Congress, to represent her at the event.

Most people argue, Mamata Banerjee could have shown more grace on an occasion - which is as much about Modi as it is a celebration of Indian Democracy. But, then - those who know Mamata intimately would say - she's not given to hypocrisy. After the out-pour of bad-blood and vitriol during the election campaign it might have appeared duplicitous to her core-constituents - if she were to give an impression of "all is fair in love and war".


If Modi and BJP's victory at the centre was cataclysmic - Trinamool's performance in West Bengal was no less phenomenal. Insiders reveal, the party's own estimates were nowhere close to 34 seats. In the best case scenario, they hoped to get 26-28 seats. That the Left would be decimated to such an extent was even beyond their expectation. A young Rajya Sabha MP of Trinamool told me, even if allegations of rigging and intimidation are true - it could have given them an additional 4 or 5 seats at best but not such a sweeping mandate. While just like Modi nationally - in West Bengal people voted for Mamata, much of the credit behind the voter mobilisation goes to the organisation man - Mukul Roy whom, some are calling the Amit Shah of Bengal, he shared as an aside. (That begs the question, couldn't the same 'victory' have been achieved without violence and bloodshed that sullied the name of the state - a hark back to the dark days of 'cadre-raj')

The Left in India has lost in relevance - but in West Bengal they've also lost the will to win. The ground has shifted from beneath their feet - TMC has pulled the rug as it were. It was sad to see giants like Basudeb Acharya - with tremendous people connect reduced to dust by a once glamourous diva, now well past her "use by" date (if I'm permitted a sexist dig).  The proverbial grass-root organisation of the CPIM has simply evaporated into thin air and they are left making the same accusations against the ruling party as one used to hear about them till a decade ago.

But, the real story of these elections - even in West Bengal - is the BJP. Many have been intrigued by the disproportionate amount of time Modi devoted to West Bengal during the campaign. Modi held some 7 - 8 rallies in the state. Since, a Gujarati views everything in terms of ROI (Return on Investment) -  the dividend was certainly poor if measured in terms of seats alone. However, if one delves a little deeper another sub-plot emerges. The BJP's vote-share in these elections increased from 6.15 % to 16.8 % precariously close to the Left's 22.7 % and far ahead of the Congress' 9.6 %. In 30 of the 42 Lok Sabha constituencies BJP emerged as the No 2 party. In 20 assembly constituencies, including some very high-profile ones, BJP were ahead (Read article).

What does this mean ? If the Modi Government at the centre stays on course and keeps alive the promise of development BJP may well consolidate its strength and emerge as the main Opposition party in the next Assembly Elections (Read earlier post). In his speeches, Modi's main target was the young audience of 18-28. There is no reason to believe - Bengali youth will think very differently from the rest of the country and not opt for development and promise of a brighter future.

It is here that one regrets the "hostility" trap Bengal falls into with successive government over the last 50 years, for which the state (and, more importantly, the younger generation) had to pay dearly. This was one chance for us to get back to the mainstream of national politics - but we once again seem to have missed the boat. There were subtle overtures made by Modi in the beginning which were rudely rebuffed due to local political compulsions (Read Vote Bank Politics is here to stay) .

But, it may not be too late yet to work out a tacit 'understanding' - without adopting a posture of aggressive opposition. Modi is a pragmatic politician, who looks at the longer term. Except for some unforeseen catastrophe, he is here to stay and he knows - that if not today - he might need the Trinamool's support in future and, therefore, be willing to play along. While we may have the example of the much vaunted "Gujarat Model where growth and development was allegedly achieved without support from the centre , we have also seen, in these elections, the case of Bihar, where Nitish spent 10 years fighting in vain for Bihar's "special status". Finally, when he failed to deliver on the promise of development - the voters shifted en-masse away from his party. 

Therefore, "Ekla Chalo Re" may not be the best anthem for all times.....

"Vanishing" Poriborton

So Mamata completes a year in office.  In the coming days newspapers , magazines and television  will try to outdo one another with articles and features analyzing ad nauseam her  performance so far, to which – no doubt -  Op-Ed writers and “Bidwojon-s” of  the National Media will add their wisdom and pass  ‘interim’ judgment. So,  thought it is an opportune time for me to tuck-in my 2 penny bits to it before other illustrious and more qualified people get into the act.

A very senior Delhi-based columnist and media commentator, a non-resident Bong, has been commissioned by a top national magazine to do such a piece on Trinamool’s 365 days in power. I was mildly flattered, when he invited me for a beer at one of the clubs – to have my take on some of the issues. And, it took  me just a swig of Kingfisher to launch into my pet rant on everything that Mamata and TMC seem to be doing wrong.

But, about half-way through our conversation, I paused like a subject on a therapist’s chair, and asked – wait a minute, are we being entirely fair to her? After a while – we both agreed, it’s probably too early to write her off yet and the jury is still out.  Disenchantment is a creeping process – though it may not take another 34 years, as it did to throw CPIM out – it’ll be some more time before it turns into a tide against her.  For that to happen earlier, she has to commit some terrible blunders – which she probably won’t, as – at the end of the day – she has too much political horse-sense to know she can’t mess around with her constituency beyond a point.

Megalomania or Incipient Paranoia

Yet, she is beginning to show disturbing signs of megalomania. Her intolerance to criticism, vulnerability to flattery and sycophancy  and – what the famous Ashish Nandy calls  - incipient “paranoia” (they want to “vanish” me ), reveals some shades of Indira Gandhi in the height of power. Though, it would be rather harsh to call them fascist traits as few die-hard cynics might tend to do.

Again like Indira Gandhi followed a different agenda at home and abroad – Mamata has a different line in the state and another one for the centre. When in Delhi, she flirts with non-Congress CMs to play the ‘federalism’ card (NCTC) , takes adversarial positions with the Centre on matters of fund allocation to the state and policy issues such as FDI in Retail. She wants to be consulted foreign policy issues with neighbours (Bangladesh - Teesta).  These too are reminiscent of Mrs Gandhi’s and parallels can be drawn with her dalliance with the Soviets and the “Non-aligned” Block or trying to prop up SAARC.  Back in Calcutta – she reverts to IG’s “Garibi Hatao” like populist chant of “Ma, Mati, Manush”.

Take a deep breath

There’s absolutely no denying , what brought  Mamata to power is her  call for change – “Poriborton” . But, while capitalizing on it for electoral success – she hasn’t been able to harness the goodwill, enthusiasm and positive energy of the masses for transformation of the state.  Something that, a Nitish Kumar in Bihar and Narendra Modi has been able to do. Today, one can feel a palpable pride among the Biharis – which has also been transmitted to the Diaspora living across the country and even overseas. In Gujrat too – the heightened sense of  chauvinism fuelled by the  state’s success in almost every field  is there for all to see – not just at the Vibrant Gujrat summits or the Amitabh Bacchan’s “Breathe in a bit of Gujrat’ TVCs.  ( See one by clicking here http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VdcEqUtTcfc )

Attitude is everything

What is needed to transform Bengal – is a change in the work culture and attitude of people. Industry and investment will come in only with that – not by trying to market the state by signing up Sharukh Khan as Brand Ambassador and holding Bengal Leads or Rising Bengal Summits – a la Gujrat.

And, no one was better placed to do that than Mamata Banerjee. Even her worst critics would admit, Mamata’s singular strength is her ability to connect with people.  it's not for nothing that, TIME Magazine has named her among the 100 most influential persons in the world today. She has an earthy charisma and the girl from down the lane who-made-it-good  appeal, which she could use to her advantage to become a truly inspirational leader of the masses. Her call for change shouldn’t have ended with asking for votes for a change of guard at Writers’ Building – but going much beyond that to imbue the people with a new spirit of determination and enthusiasm to transform the state from within. Alas, this is where she has failed  to rise to the challenge and display the qualities expected of a visionary leader.

Governance is the key

The second issue where she seems to be completely out of depth – and in which both Nitish and Modi have scored spectacularly – is governance.  This is an area she should focus on to salvage the state from the morass it is swamped in. To do that would mean two things. One she has to cut off the politicians and establish direct channels of administration – as Nitish, Modi and – to some extent – even a Navin Patnaik has done.  But, perhaps – she can’t do that because she needs her party network to counter the grass-root machinery of the CPIM.

In the process, she is weakening the state administration, without - perhaps - realizing it,  even more than what it used to be during the Left Front rule. This is coupled with her lack of trust in her won colleagues and the scant regard with which she treats the bureaucracy or officials (as was evident in her action against  the South Calcutta Dy. Commissioner of Police, Damayanti Sen after the Park Street “rape” incident or from the peremptory manner in which she deals with senior  bureaucrats in public).

Forget a Nitish or Modi – who have some of the most competent and progressive officers  working for them , whom they have empowered completely –  a Mayawati or Akhilesh Yadav  too realize the importance of an efficient bureaucracy. People may have different views on the things Mayawati  (or, say  Jayalalitha  in her previous terms ), may have done in her 5 years – be it building gigantic monuments or getting private operators of her choice to make world-class Expressways. But, she couldn’t have achieved any of it without having officers with strong execution capabilities under her. And, all of them realize the importance of law and order in governance. So, even the detractors of Mayawati credit her for retrieving UP from “goonda raj”.

Listening (in)ability

The next is the ‘trust’ factor. All good leaders have a few strong aides, political managers and administrators around them. They understand the value of experience.  But, Mamata doesn’t make use of talent.  She has made all the capable people around her ciphers. A Subrata Mukherjee or Saugata Roy – could very well have played the role of elder statesmen in the party or government. But, they have been sidelined. The story of Dinesh Trivedy is well known. An Amit Mitra and Manish Gupta are non-entities in her scheme of things. She is the No 1, 2 and 3 of the party as people say of Sonia in the Congress (the cartoon below could have would be true of her as well  - just that no cartoonist would dare lampoon her anymore).  A leader must also have the time and patience to “listen”. But, she loves the sound of her own voice too much and is a narcissist when it comes to her own thoughts and ideas. 

But, more dangerously - perhaps - she seems to believe she alone has all the answers. someone joked, after Tagore, Mamata is probably the most versatile personality in the history of modern Bengal . She is at once a politician, an administrator, an artist, a poet, a singer, a town-planner, an educationist. The list can go on.

She is not Caesar’s wife. She is (still) single

The last count on which she makes me extremely worried is corruption. All said and done – during the Left Front regime “corruption” was almost miniscule – as compared to the rest of the country.  There is an apocryphal story about a late CPIM leader having gone to a non-resident Bengali  tycoon, who had the reputation of being a ‘banker’ to many politicians, asking if would keep some of his money. It seems the tycoon told him – 'I don’t deal in small change, first learn to earn and then come to me".

This is changing very fast.  And, perhaps unalterably so. It is common knowledge that Trinamool is breeding all pervading corruption in the system and her party workers and leaders are all on the take, trying to make a quick buck while it lasts.  I don’t believe this is something Mamata is unaware of. Though personally, she may be unimpeachable (it would probably be an affront to her maidenhood to compare her with Caesar’s wife) – but, perhaps, she is helpless as this is a by-product of the political structure and organization she has created.  But, if left unchecked this may come to haunt her soon.

Bengal at a cusp

In most marriages the ‘honeymoon’ lasts for some time. But, there are some in which the trauma and ordeal start from the nuptial night itself.  This one seems to be like that. But, there are instances in which the most troubled relationships settle down over time and even give way to love. Let’s hope this turns out to be a case of the latter.

So, as I said at the start, it may be too early to put a ‘paid’ stamp on the Poriborton bill. Mamata (and, by association West Bengal) is standing at a cusp. From here things can go either way.  With intelligence and some amount of  wisdom and vision Mamata can check the secular decline of West Bengal and change its trajectory like Nitish has done to Bihar or Modi has been able to accelerate in Gujrat. The sad contra scenario could be, she would  take it down like Lalu – not by her lack of integrity or intent (as Lalu had )  – but by sheer administrative incompetence.

Amma, Behenji and Didi

(Mamata at the Writers Building after her swearing-in)

Singur Season 2

Mamata Banerjee has kicked off her innings in characteristic style – with a great flurry, seeking publicity and courting controversy from day one.
It seems her “surprise” visits to government departments and hospitals – without informing her officers and ministers – are undertaken only after tipping-off friendly TV channels.

The Singur Soap Opera Season II has also unfolded along predictable lines. First, the hurried ordinance and then passing of the Singur Land Act in the assembly. Her legal advisers would have surely told her that, it was bound to be challenged in court by the Tatas. But, so what ? – she could claim that, she has kept her promise to the electorate and started the process for returning the land in right earnest – blaming any delays on the Tatas and the courts. Those – who view the Supreme Court’s interim ruling as a set-back for the government could be mistaken. Even during the original Singur controversy in 2008 – the intelligentsia went ballistic but she knew her real constituency (read my earlier blogs: Nano Vision I and Nano Vision II).

TV Reality Show Queen

The knowledgeable and politically astute were not expecting a honeymoon. They had anticipated it would be more like a TV Reality Show wedding where the sparks and shoes start flying even before the bride takes off her grease paint. And, this lady never wears any make-up in the first place. So, it was back to the kitchen (cabinet) almost from the nuptial night.

In keeping with her image – she deliberately gives the impression of being in a mad rush, impatient and restless to get things done. And, a little more dangerously, having all the answers with her. This was on display her first interaction with the industry (her brusque disposal of all interjections) – which seemed more an exercise for the camera rather than a genuine interest to solicit ideas and encourage interaction. One suspects - the same would be the objective of forming the "mentor group" for Presidency College - a la the Nalanda University initiative of Nitish. Neither she nor her lieutanants (who faithfully emulate her churlish mannerisms and 'instant solution' proclivity) would have much time for advisors no matter what their stature may be. Her churlish handling of the situation arising out of the death of 18 infants at the Dr B C Roy Memorial Hospital was again true to form.

The worry is how far will mere rhetoric and native PR take her ? She may have the ideas – but does she have the plan and, more importantly, the people and administrative acumen to give it shape. That’s why most of her much touted projects in the railways went beyond the foundation stone ceremonies (and opening of new stations and introduction of new trains in West Bengal) and the ministry has been precariously close to being “derailed” – with an appalling fall in its operational efficiencies.

Poster boys or toy-boys

The older guard in the party are already feeling marginalized. Some senior leaders – like Subrata Mukherjee – have been given insignificant cabinet births – with most major portfolios retained by her. A veteran MLA I met the other day – lamented that they find it difficult to even get an audience with her. The more visible and vocal faces around her lack both administrative and political experience – in any case don’t have much authority to function on their own. Someone like Amit Mitra – is seen more as a “poster boy” - like some big names she had tried to ‘collect’ in the past – such as Nitish Sengupta, General Shankar Roychowdhury (who later went to Rajya Sabha as an independent supported by the Left Front) and the Panja brothers – with the strings of control firmly in her hand.

The bureaucracy is nervous on 2 counts. First, because of her impulsive, whimsical and unpredictable ways - though, this is primarily a concern of the senior officers at Writers’ Building who have greater interaction with her and, in any case, the 'babus' are trained to take the frailties and tantrums of their political masters (can't say mistresses, in this case) in their stride. But, what is making people down the line – especially in the districts - feel shaky is the absence of clear leadership at the ground level. In the Left Front regime there was no ambiguity in the line of command. It was either the local MLA or the party secretary who called the shots. Now everyone is a self-styled leader and none of the pious pronouncements from the top – advising cadres not to interfere with the administration are taken seriously by the local satraps.

the CEO syndrome

Personality cult is here to stay in Indian politics. Suddenly, our political leaders seem gripped by the CEO syndrome. So, it would be unrealistic to expect West Bengal to be any different. But, to be successful what’s the style Mamata Banerjee should adopt ? In neighbouring Bihar, Nitish too has largely by-passed his party men (much to their resentment – but the astounding results of the last election – silenced all criticism) and empowered the bureaucracy. He has gathered some outstanding officers – whose clear mandate is to deliver with speed. Narendra Modi has done pretty much the same in Gujrat, as has Navin Patnaik in Orissa with mixed results.

Even Mamata’s greatest admirers would not put her in the league of these 3 stalwarts of change and development. She would, probably, be more comfortable in positioning herself somewhere in between her two lady contemporaries – the Behenji in Lucknow and the Amma down South in Chennai. Both are imperious and neither have a strong reputation for probity (Mamata wears a brooch of integrity prominently on her pallu - but her partymen make no such pretence). But, in their own way they have ‘delivered’ for their respective constituencies – notwithstanding the corruption in both the states and abysmal Law and Order situation especially in UP. The progress made by Tamil Nadu in Jayalalitha’s previous term – when it had the second highest Industrial growth in the country (next only to Gujrat) is well-known. On a recent trip, I saw the transformation of Lucknow. Though many would call the grand new architectural extravaganza - monuments of megalomania, it says something about the lady’s execution capabilities. Even the CWG scam and a series of other scandals couldn't taint the image of Sheila Dixit, the grand-dame of Delhi - as an able administrator.

Scoring 'Self-goals'

A respected political analyst had said, the problem with the Left front was that, even when in power they viewed themselves as an “opposition party”. Mamata too has to quickly get out of that stormy petrel of protest syndrome. Otherwise – the hounds of the CPM are waiting in the wings to trip at her at the first opportunity, doing unto her what she did to them all these years. If she doesn’t change gears – she could well score a “self-goal” and get beaten in her own game.