Watch out for Devendra Fadnavis, BJP's gen-next leader

Pic Courtesy +ABPLIVE 

This article was first published in +ABPLIVE

To read other published articles on politics by Sandip Ghose Click Here. His curated Blog: Right Angle has now shifted to www.sandipghose.com

Just when two forty-something scions of political dynasties are tripping over each other to promote themselves as youth icons, BJP has quietly gifted the country its own gen-next leader in Devendra Fadnavis.

Like in Uttar Pradesh now, if one recalls, the BJP had gone to polls in Maharashtra without a Chief Ministerial face. Even then, the strategy was a matter of intense debate and discussion. It was only towards the last lap of his campaigning, in Nagpur, that Narendra Modi had dropped a broad hint about Fadnavis being one of the probable names.

In fact, the triumvirate of Fadnavis, Khattar and Raghubar Das, all anointed as Chief Ministers within a gap of a few weeks towards the end of 2014, set some kind of a trend. They were all relatively unknown faces and somewhat surprise choices defying normal caste and region equations.
Of them, Fadnavis was more of an exception than others. Not only was Fadnavis younger than the rest, but he also did not have a strong constituency of his own to write home about. In a state like Maharashtra that boasts of being the commercial epicentre of the country money is a key determinant of political relevance. Therefore, even a first time young MLA like Pankaja Munde harboured ambition of becoming CM purely on the strength of inheriting her powerful father’s legacy. But, Fadnavis came from a modest background with a clean image and reputation of a sincere and dedicated ​party ​ worker. In some ways, he was a symbol of the industrious, educated, middle class Marathi ‘mulga’.

Putting Fadnavis at the helm in a large and complex state like Maharashtra was a huge gamble of Narendra Modi. His challenge was not only tackling a demanding and bickering partner like Shiv Sena but also managing heavy weights within his own party, which called for extra-ordinary maturity. Even though out of power and reduced almost to stubble, NCP and Congress in certain boroughs still remained forces to be reckoned with. It must be said to his credit that, Fadnavis navigated through the pitfalls and minefields with dexterity that is rare for a debutant.

One had observed signs of Fadnavis’ deft political management in the few by elections and local body polls over the last two years, but the recent BMC and Municipality Polls were undoubtedly his baptism by fire. While the BJP’s sweep of the rest of Maharashtra was less of a surprise for many, barring perhaps the traditional NCP stronghold of Pune, Pimpri-Chichwad, it was Mumbai that left everyone awestruck. It was truly a moment of Fadnavis coming of age.

But, if the results were stunning, the biggest statement of Fadnavis’ ascending stature was his magnanimous declaration of not contesting the mayoral position and offering outside support to Shiv Sena in forming the Brihan-Mumbai Municipal Council. At one stroke, he shed his “come lately” status to steal Uddhav Thackeray’s thunder and place himself on a higher pedestal. It was an unequivocal announcement that henceforth, Shiv Sena and other political parties have to deal with him on his own right and not as a surrogate of Modi and Amit Shah. The same message would have surely gone home also to his own senior colleagues and peers in the state BJP.

Maharashtra on a platter, just before the last lap of U P Elections, was the best return gift that Devendra Fadnavis could have given Narendra Modi for choosing him as the Chief Minister. But, in living up to the confidence reposed in him by​ ​ ​ Modi-Shah, Devendra Fadnavis has also started the generational shift in BJP that is required to reinvent the party and make it future ready.
This is a strong signal for other regional veterans who may have started taking their positions for granted, many of whom should start planning either for early superannuation or being bumped up to lofty but unimportant positions at the centre. In the event of BJP winning in Uttar Pradesh, which many are willing to bet upon today, it can be expected with reasonable certainty that Modi-Shah will spring another fresh face.

And, in the BJP ruled states that will go for polls in the coming two years, the incumbent Chief Ministers should not assume their indispensability. But, the challenge for Modi and Shah will be to find more like Fadnavis across the country, who will shape BJP 2.0 — that is more progressive and liberal. The young India, whom Modi has wooed so relentlessly, expects it of him. He can deliver on the promise only through a new breed of BJP leaders who shall walk the talk of governance, development and growth.

Originally published at www.abplive.in on March 5, 2017.

Tragedy at Uri

Keep the cheap shots — stand behind the government at this hour of crisis

Photo Courtesy +India Today 

Article first published in +Medium Click here

There are hardly any words to describe how heinous and reprehensible were the #UriAttacks. Surely, it could not have been the act of just any terrorist group without the active support of the establishment across the border — be it the #Pakistani Army and/or the ISI.

The tragedy for the families of the military personnel, who died in the attack can never be appreciated by civilians like us. It is a huge burden on the collective conscience of the nation that so many of our valiant soldiers have to lay down their lives fighting a war — that appears at least in the short run — to be a ‘no win’ battle.

Even without being a defence strategy expert — one can conjecture the attack was a ‘tit-for-tat’ move at India raising the ante on #Balochistan and isolate #Pakistan in recent engagements of the Prime Minister at a number of international fora.

Contrary to what our wrestlers and jingoists may have to say — everyone knows war is not an option between two nuclear powers — especially with one of them being a borderline rogue state.
We also have a flock of “doves” — advocating “political solution” without spelling out what that could be. Under the circumstances — the only option is trying to increase the “costs” for the other side. In that — India is at a handicap. That is because — unlike our neighbours — we do not have “non-state” actors like the Taliban and fanatical religious groups working for us. Covert intelligence operations cannot match the determination of suicidal Zihadis.

But, as a lay citizen, one wonders what can be done to minimise the damages on our side. Uri and before this Pathankot gives the impression of gaps in our defences and lapses in intelligence. Some reports seem to indicate that much more can be done to protect our forces and establishments in the border areas with better hardware and physical deterrents. That is the least we owe to our brave-hearts .

It is unfortunate that politicians and critics of the present government are trying to score points at this hour of crisis. Some are quoting (the letters — missing the ‘spirit’ of those comments) Narendra Modi’s indictment of the previous government for its failure to act against cross border terrorism. Snide digs are being made about the Prime Minister’s stop-over in Lahore last year. One senile and unemployed Congressi-Royalty even recalled the IC 814 Kandahar episode as the genesis of the current situation.

Temperatures are soaring in TV studios. Media is adding heat with alleged “leaks” from within the system. But, surely no one expects the government to carry out air-strikes in enemy territory or even drone attacks.

The only way forward is to systemically and concertedly isolate Pakistan on the international stage and build up pressure on the global biggies to bring them to the book. On that — the Narendra Modi team has done much more — within a short span of 2 years — than any other government (including Vajpayee’s) in the past. It is time people recognised that and stand firmly and unitedly behind the PM rather than having cheap pot-shots at him.


#Uri #Pakistan #UriAttacks #NarendraModi #Kashmir #Baramulla
IndiaPakistanTerrorismKashmirUriattacks

Decoding Didi 2.0

Mamata Banerjee has hit a ‘sweet spot’ in her political career, but maintaining the momentum will be a challenge

Photo Courtesy: HBL and PTI

Article first published in @thehindubusinessline.com (Click here)

A young female foreign tourist with a backpack in Kolkata’s Maidan area incredulously watches an approaching tramcar. Next moment she is transported in a trance inside the tram — finding herself tangoing with Shah Rukh Khan with Tagore’s “Chini go, chini tomarey — ogo bideshini...” (I recognise you my lady from an alien land) playing in the background. As Shah Rukh drops her in a silhouette movement on his arm — a motley bunch of passengers in the tram clap and cheer them.

It is a commercial being shot for Tourism Bengal’s campaign — ‘The Sweetest Part of India’. But, seeing the rushes Didi is not impressed. She thinks there is too little of Sharukh in the film. Turning to the secretary, she chides him — “Meye ta ke kaat hotey dekhe tumee nijey o kaat hoye geley” (seeing the girl drop — your jaw dropped too) and orders the ad agency to go back to Mumbai and shoot some additional footage.

One cannot vouch for the veracity of this account. Possibly one of those many apocryphal stories. But it sounds quintessentially Mamata Banerjee. It is her grass-root sensibilities talking. Even if Sharukh is doing the commercial for free — the production company is charging a bomb and she wants value for money. As a consummate communicator she knows what the audience wants but now also understanding the importance of slick packaging.

In another talked about instance, the CM landed at a newly refurbished Government Tourist Lodge in the Dooars forests of North Bengal. Though she liked the changes carried out, the tariff bothered her, which she thought was too steep for the regular Bengali tourist. She at once called the chief of Tourism Corporation from her mobile and asked him to reconsider the rates — who dropped it pronto by a thousand rupees. Mamata knows the Bengalis love for travel and she also understands their budget constraints. More importantly she is clear — it is this socio economic segment, rather than the affluent urban elite, who form her second largest constituency after the rural poor.

The new avatar

So, what is different about Mamata Banerjee 2.0? First, she has read the victory as an unequivocal positive mandate for herself (unlike in the first term — when it was largely a backlash against the Left). She nipped the potential anti-incumbency factor of local Trinamool satraps by declaring herself as the virtual candidate in all 282 constituencies — making it a “Mamata Vs. the Rest” election. Her strategy was paid off by the phenomenal win. The message was clear: people still trust her and she cannot let them down.

This is reflected in the self-assured confidence she displays. Much of the old volatility is missing. Though there is the customary criticism of the opposition and centre — it is sans venom and vitriol. There is the willingness for pragmatic cooperation as seen during the GST voting. Scores are settled with adversaries (like a media baron) through silent signalling. Limits are being set for party strongmen — reminding them no one is indispensable.

Second, she also sees the second-term as an endorsement and shot in the arm for her larger national ambitions. The days of being a regional ally in a larger coalition are behind for her. She is not the one to remain ensconced in Kolkata as Didi to her “Maa, Maati, Manush” leaving Delhi to the big boys of the cow-belt in lieu of a few meaty portfolios for her party in the Union Cabinet like a DMK, RJD or SP. Now, she is ready to play for bigger stakes. As some of her close associates have already indicated – “do not rule out” her being a serious contender for the top job.

However, for making that audacious bid — she needs to establish at least two strong credentials. First, is a track record of good governance and development — a la Modi’s “Gujarat model”. The second, would be a presence — however token — beyond West Bengal. For both, she has less than three years in hand.

Instant redress

Bureaucrats close to Mamata Banerjee claim — the work done in the last five years, especially in the villages, is underestimated. Banerjee thinks that has been the main plank of her victory and it is the administration – rather than the politicians – who ensured delivery. Therefore, this time round she has increased her reliance on bureaucrats over politicians. Much talked about in government circles are her Saturday “classes” at her Kalighat residence — where she is known to often read the riot act to errant party members.

Taking a leaf from the book of neighbour Nitish Kumar — she travels to the districts with secretaries in tow. Issues raised by local constituents are assigned to concerned departments — who are held accountable for execution of projects. Decision is instant. Officers are enjoying the new empowerment.

Banerjee realises – quick wins will come from services. Hence, the emphases on sectors like tourism. But, she also knows people would like to see new industries on the ground. Attracting industrialists to come from outside and inviting FDI may be fashionable but not going to be easy. Many expect her to “bite the bullet” on land acquisition in her second term but, doubt if she will risk it before 2019.

Besides, land alone will not solve the problem of industrialisation. The introduction of GST may further whittle the incentive for setting up manufacturing base in Bengal. On software, Bengal has missed the bus long ago. Possibly, the Kerala model could also well work for Bengal — where the economy thrives on repatriated earnings and service industries like education, healthcare and tourism.

Add to that tea, food processing, handicrafts and fish (both sea and inland pisciculture) and one could have a winning formula. With investment in education — West Bengal can become a major exporter of skilled and knowledge workers. Health-care can attract medical tourists. These are areas where local entrepreneurs may also be more amenable to putting their money.

Ramping up tourism

It may be argued that some of these are already happening. Sadly, today West Bengal is a source of low-skilled manpower — among them a large number are just transiting population moving from across the border. Young Bengalis go to other states for higher education in engineering and medicine — then settle in new employment hubs like Bangalore, Hyderabad, Pune and Gurgaon. Older Bengalis flock to Chennai and Vellore for Medical treatment.

In tourism statistics Bengal claims to get higher number of Foreign Tourists than Kerala. But it is not difficult to guess where they come from. Domestic tourist numbers are high, too, but even they are largely intra-State budget travellers and pilgrims.

High-end tourism too will need investment and infrastructure. But, there are some low-hanging fruits — Sunderbans, Dooars and the Hills. Well marketed with a proper tourism policy and quality assurance process — Sharukh’s tango just may work.

Whether Bengal is the Sweetest Part of India or not Mamata has certainly hit a ‘sweet spot’ in her political career and she knows it. Renaming the state from West Bengal to Bangla is a declaration of her ascent.

Modi Town Hall

Article first published in +ABP NEWS Click here


The genius of Prime Minister Narendra Modi lies in always staying two steps ahead of his rivals. While his opponents are still struggling with Social Media, aping his Chai Pe Charcha or Mann Ki Baat, he goes Boom! and raises the bar with a US style Town Hall.

Warming up by – now almost a ritual – some friendly trolling of the media, he also sent out a gentle signal that he can communicate to the masses over their head. To the opposition and the liberal chatterati, his message seemed to be: I decide the subject of my discourse, select topics that I wish to speak on, at a time of my choosing.

So he set the agenda, and how!

Little did anyone expect him to take the ‘gaurakshaks’ head-on. And what a pasting it was. There were no pious platitudes on respecting all religions or other such homilies. To say more cows die of consuming plastic bags and waste and asking State Governments to prepare dossiers on self-appointed ‘Gaurakshaks’ was a double masterstroke that would have left even his raucous critics gasping.

If he disappointed Omar Abdullah and his close friends in the media by not talking about the ‘Valley’, he must have done so advisedly. The Government is working as per a strategy in Jammu & Kashmir and the Prime Minister would certainly not like to derail it by making a comment which is bound to given a different spin by those, to borrow his phrase about ‘Gaurakshaks’, who have opened shops in the name of Kashmir. Sending Rajnath Singh to Pakistan for the SAARC, he has already driven home the message to the jihadists across the LoC – that the Government will play in Kashmir as per its own rules which are not part of regional dialogue.

By deftly swinging the focus to agriculture, handlooms (Khadi for Nation, Khadi for Fashion) , Smart Villages not just Smart Cities, he quietly pricked some holes in the balloons of his friends across the aisle in Parliament. So, Rahul Gandhi’s speechwriters have to think of something new in place of the tiresome suit-boot. Sonia Gandhi won’t be able to speak just about the plight of weavers on her next trip to Varanasi. And, Lalu Prasad has to come up with something smarter than his earlier ‘smart villages’ quip.


What makes Narendra Modi’s speeches and exhortations potent is the ring of passion and authenticity in whatever he speaks. This cannot be achieved by mere oratory alone unless there is a genuine conviction at the core. Those familiar with the thoughts and writings of Swami Vivekananda would know about his obsession with “preventive healthcare”.

Safe drinking water, hygienic cooking, healthy eating habits, yoga and physical exercise had engaged Vivekananda more than a century ago. One can decipher a distinct impression of his teachings in Narendra Modi’s views on these issues. For that, one does not need an Oxford Economist or Harvard-educated lawyer as Prime Minister, but someone with a heart and common sense.

Of course, one can almost visualise Sanjay Jha or someother bright young Congress spokesperson saying on TV – even Rahul Gandhi understands the importance of safe drinking water – as he always carries his bottle of Evian while visiting Dalit homes.

Talking of “last mile” first, the Prime Minister reminded the States of their responsibility to reach governance to the grass-roots. But, the message is equally relevant for his party colleagues and Sangh followers. Narendra Modi alone cannot keep shouting from the ramparts of Red Fort, Town Hall or Mann Ki Baat. It is also for them to carry the message to the last man in every town and village.

Do even Kashmiris know what they want ?

Why is Congress and Left Lib intlectual and media outraging most Kashmir?

Atrticle first published +ABP NEWS  Click here to read 

A Kashmiri family walks past paramilitary troopers standing guard during a curfew, in downtown Srinagar on July 15, 2016. PIC/AFP. (courtesy +ABP NEWS 

Resurfacing after his most recent – now famous and frequent – R&R break, when Rahul Gandhi thundered -“Lack of foresight & poor management has led to the escalation of violence in Kashmir” – a witty Twitter buddy quipped: “Is he referring to Nehru?”

 It is actually ironical that, this statement could well be applied to any politician dealing with Kashmir – in the last 70 years. No doubt Jawaharlal Nehru made a massive political gaffe – that even the Nehru-Gandhi family and their apologists will find difficult to contest — on the referendum proposal.

 But, looking at it counter-factually – would things have been any different in Jammu & Kashmir today if he had not capitulated then? Arguably, not.

 But, a lot can be said and questioned about the handling of Jammu & Kashmir by successive Governments since Independence. It may be true that, without the shadow of the referendum faux pas, India could have been less apologetic or defensive in its Kashmir strategy. But, only so.

 If it were Pakistan’s state policy to keep the Kashmir issue on the boil as an eternal bone of contention with India, it would not have relented on strategy just for the lack of a purported UN Resolution.

Equally, professional jihadists – whether sponsored from across the border or sons of the soil – would not have stayed idle waiting for the earlier editions of promised “acche din” to arrive.

There is little reason to believe that, in the absence of insurgency and internal strife, Jammu & Kashmir would have developed at a faster clip than the rest of India since Independence. Therefore, the much-flogged justification of separatism, unfulfilled ‘aspirations’ of Kashmiri youth, would have still been there either way.

 In trying to tackle a seemingly insurmountable problem with knee-jerk, short sighted and, at times, ill-conceived solutions, the Indian state has progressively complicated the situation in Kashmir Valley. In the process, it has also created huge cesspools of vested interests not just in political circles but an entire ecosystem that thrives on “Kashmir war chests” on both sides of the LoC.

Although no real industrial development took place in Kashmir Valley, several ‘soft-skill’ enterprises flourished. These range from NGOs to media and, so-called, Track 2 “Kashmir Experts” (or call them the neo-KPs, Kashmiri ‘Pundits’ of a different kind) comprising politicians, journalists, retired bureaucrats, diplomats on sinecure, hibernating intelligence sleuths and even former Generals. They are like quacks to those patients with psychosomatic ailments keep running to.

Finally, there are the touts, brokers and middlemen coming in all forms and hues.

With each passing day these interest groups are growing deeper and wider roots. In trying to counter them, new ones are created and that becomes a self-perpetuating cycle.

The old Dogra Royalty may be on the wane but new political dynasties have emerged who want to rule Jammu & Kashmir —  keeping their families and partners safely ensconced in Delhi or London. But, obviously the rewards of power are far too lucrative for them not to answer the call of the valley.

Against this backdrop, the BJP is the only national political party that has an ideological position on Jammu & Kashmir rather than just a political one. Retaining Jammu & Kashmir as an integral part of India for the BJP is part of its belief system – for which their leader Syama Prasad Mookerjee – the founder of the Bharatiya Jana Sangh — laid down his life.

The BJP and RSS are committed to the idea of Jammu & Kashmir being integral to India, which is not negotiable as far as they are concerned.

But, for Congress and others it is more a matter of political compulsion or geostrategic imperative. One may recall – from time to time – the Congress has in the past tried to soft-pedal a “let go” policy on Kashmir, especially through friendly journalists.

That makes the task of Narendra Modi’s Government all the more unenviable. Any signs of a pragmatic pact with a “Kashmiri” party like PDP immediately draws flak from the BJP’s core constituency of Jammu Hindus and Kashmiri Pandits.

On the other hand, the slightest offensive against militants immediately has the entire world – most notably the Lutyens’s Liberals — coming down upon them like a cloudburst in Srinagar and New Delhi.

One does not recall so much outrage on the decades of military action in the valley as over firing pellet guns in Srinagar (not that the former justifies the latter). The protests after Hizbul Mujahideen Commander Burhan Wani’s death received more prime time and front-page coverage in Indian media than what one can remember about the anti-Kashmiri Pandit pogrom in the valley in the 1980s.

Interestingly, if one cares to note, it is the Congress, the Left and their friends in the media who have been most vocal in attacking the Central Government on Kashmir. In comparison, one has not heard the voices of other political parties, especially the regional biggies at all. Is there a story in that too?

With BJP-PDP 2.0 in power – with the more strident Mehbooba Mufti following a protracted courtship – Jammu & Kashmir watchers assumed that the BJP had put on anklets that would deter New Delhi from taking a hard line against militants.

Suddenly realisation seems to have dawned that power sharing does not necessarily mean going soft on separatists. The Prime Minister’s silence and even Mehbooba’s muted reaction to the events of past week has further brought home this message. This has rattled the self-appointed conscience keepers of the Kashmiri cause.

The question one is inclined to ask these “neo KPs” is: can the Kashmiris be so counter-intuitive to believe that their lot would be better either under independent self-rule or in Pakistan?

How many of their youth who are being sacrificed in the self-styled jihad for ‘Azadi’ really understand what it entails for them. If unfulfilled ‘aspiration’ is really the cause for their taking up arms, as some intellectuals suggest, do they think their fellow Kashmiris across the border are any better off?

If the leaders and benefactors were really serious about their welfare and future of Kashmiris, they would negotiate with the Central Government on a specific agenda for development, health-care, skill-building and employment generation, rather than lead them to a mirage of jannat.

Sadly, ordinary Kashmiris do not seem to know what they really want.

Smriti Irani - the Bahu who all Bhabis Love to Hate

Picture Courtesy +DailyO India Today 

Article first published in +DailyO India Today (Click here)

No, Smriti Irani was not the best human resource development minister the country has had (though names of some of her predecessors like Arjun Singh also do not evoke much respect). Many think she was a walking-talking disaster and they are entitled to their opinion. But, there is absolutely no doubt that she has spunk. And, therein hangs a tale.

One cannot easily recall when the portfolio change of a Cabinet minister caused so much of elation and merriment - almost putting into shade all other changes in a mega Cabinet rejig. A leading daily carried the headline "Smriti Irani dropped", forgetting or ignoring the fact that she had been moved (or call it "shunted") to a ministry that oversees an industry that is the second largest employer in India after agriculture.

The liberal intellectual establishment and its friends in the media can barely hide their glee (not that they are trying particularly hard).

Interestingly, the nastiest jibes are coming from women - educated and accomplished by all accounts, some of them cultural czarinas in their own rights. Many of the quips and tweets are downright distasteful, which would have surely set the internet on fire if used against any of them.

One woman TV journalist was tickled to bits when a cerebral celebrity she was interviewing regaled her with an apocryphal anecdote of Irani snapping at an IIT director: "Why are you asking so many questions - are you a TV anchor?"

Front-page banner headline in mainstream newspapers calling her "Spinderella", which defies all standards of editorial decorum and should have left feminists fuming; have been lauded as "epic" by doyens of the profession.

Even before Irani became a minister, she has been a butt of jokes (such as those on the XXXL size of her dresses - the famous Fabindia episode in Goa) and people have not stopped short of making innuendos about her personal life.

Professional women who champion the cause of gender equality in all walks of life have made not-so-subtle suggestions about her rise to power for considerations other than merit. Similar insinuations about one of their ilk would have been met with angry outrage about misogyny in public life. The uncouth remarks about her by the likes of Sanjay Nirupam do not even merit mention.

So what makes Irani the "bahu" (advisedly not calling her "aunty") that all sisters-in-law love to hate?

Surely, she is not the first woman politician with a streak of arrogance - nay, haughtiness. There have been many queen bees of the political circuit. Granted, she did not have commensurate academic qualifications to be the HRD minister (if it is indeed a pre-requisite to head the ministry) and we shall not get into the predictable argument about the credentials of some other politicians of stature either.

The problem with Irani is similar to that of her perceived mentor - the prime minister himself. Both are considered as lacking political pedigree and outsiders in Delhi. They are first-timers in the government - compared to say a Sushma Swaraj or Arun Jaitley. Therefore, in her, opponents see a surrogate of Narendra Modi - and by attacking Irani they are hitting back at the big man by proxy.

Secondly, as the HRD minister, she was instrumental in striking at the root of the traditional bastions of academia and culture that have since independence remained the exclusive preserve of a privileged class nurtured in the Nehruvian ecosystem. That an alternate narrative could even exist was beyond the imagination of this pampered lot, who saw it almost as an assault on their fundamental right to life.

Thriving in the same symbiotic universe is a very influential community. This is the set that Modi recently referred to as a section of the media who never thought he could become the prime minister and is still not able to digest the fact.

Again by extension, the ire of this community falls on Irani. And, with good reason - for other than Modi himself - Irani is perhaps the only minister who has dared to take on the hostile media head-on. There are few as articulate as her in the BJP in one-on-one engagements with the media. Her sharp reactions on social media might appear petulant and immature drawing her more flak, but they never fail to rattle her detractors.

The cardinal sin Irani committed was not just contesting the scion of the Nehru-Gandhi dynasty in his family fiefdom, but bringing him precariously close to biting the dust. Even after the elections she has shown no signs of relenting and continues to nurture her adopted constituency with passion, much to the discomfort of the local political managers of the "family".

Again, besides Modi and BJP national president Amit Shah, she is the most vocal against the "dynasty", which resonates deeply in her stunning speeches in Parliament always hitting hard where it hurts the "family" most.

It is for this that she will remain a target as long as Modi himself remains a threat for the Gandhis. It would not be far-fetched to conjecture that the anti-Modi factions within the BJP and RSS have also been adding fuel to the fire to get even with the "boss".

But in their enthusiasm, most people have missed nuances and sub-texts that only some astute observers have picked up.First, by no means is textile a lightweight ministry. In the next phase of the Modi sarkar, economic reforms will be much more important than a cultural revolution. For that, someone bold and with high energy will be an asset, especially to bring in much needed labour reforms in the industry.

That doesn't mean the BJP's core ideological agenda will be abandoned. For that, a Prakash Javadekar groomed in RSS akharas, unlike a lateral entrant like Irani, is an apposite choice.

Finally, opposition and intrigue has only augmented Modi's meteoric rise. The same may also work for Irani, particularly if she is able to prove her worth as a star campaigner for the BJP in the upcoming Uttar Pradesh elections. Here, she can be the BJP's trump card and an answer to Priyanka Gandhi's charisma that the Congress is so heavily banking upon.

Even on Wednesday (July 6), when she was assuming office in the textile ministry, the media arrived in hordes. She did not miss the opportunity to have a dig at them: "It may be the first time that many of you have come to this ministry."

If not anybody else, at least the Banarasi sari weavers in Modi's constituency should be happy with her move to the textiles ministry.

From Panchsheel to 'High Five'

Modi in US

Prime Minister Narendra Modi (C) shakes hands with members of Congress after addressing a joint meeting of the U.S. Congress in the House Chamber of the U.S. Capitol June 8, 2016 in Washington, DC. PIC/AFP. (photo courtesy ABP News)

Article first published in +ABP NEWS Click here

Is it just we Indians that lose all sense of objectivity — while judging the performance of our leaders abroad? Or does it happen only when Narendra Modi speaks to an international audience? With him — critiques and supporters — tend to ignore substance and content to focus on form, accent, pronunciation, attire and historical gaffes.

Surely Americans made fun of Bushisms, disagreed and criticized his policies — but none disrespected “The President”. The same was true for Sarkozy, perhaps. And, I am willing to bet though his “democratic” detractors may ridicule Donald Trump — should he be elected POTUS their attitude will change overnight.

I recall at an event in New Delhi in which Robert Giuliani was speaking. A British delegate from Hong Kong asked a question referring to Bush as “Rambo”. Oh boy, one had to see to believe how Giuliani tore him apart to shreds. That’s what I call national pride.

The real point to note after a speech — in my view  -is neither form nor even content — but impact. This is where Modi scores above many other world leaders of the day. I am even willing to grant that — Americans are trained and programmed to clap, cheer and rise for standing ovations. Therefore, it doesn’t really matter whether they stood up 60+ times for #Modi and only 33 times for Man Mohan Singh. What really matters is how much of Modi’s speech has registered and resonated with them — what jarred, perhaps — and what was the overall perception and ultimate takeaway.

True Rajiv Gandhi also created an impression. So, would have Nehru and Indira Gandhi in the context of their times. But, a few crucial differences have emerged since then. First, the world order has changed since the end of the cold war. Just as nature abhors vacuum — a menacingly rising China is fast filling up space given away in the disintegration of the Soviet Union. But, even more significant is the rise of terror (largely Islamic) across the world. On all these scores India’s strategic importance for the US has exponentially increased.

In this revised equation — India is, arguably, the only viable entity to offer some degree of foil to China in South Asia. All other countries in the region — not just Pakistan but Bangladesh, Sri Lanka, Maldives and Myanmar would only be too willing play footsie (and, more) with China. On fighting terror — the trustworthiness of these countries — especially — Pakistan is even more suspect.
Of course, for the US — Pakistan is not wholly dispensable. If not anything — it has huge potential of damage. So despite bluffing them on Osama and acting as double agents for Taliban — the US can’t afford to dump them altogether. But, certainly Pakistan cannot hope to remain the favourite Asian nephew of the Americans.

One can justifiably argue that, any other Indian Prime Minister in Modi’s place would have also caught on to this reality and recalibrated foreign policy accordingly. But, herein lies the importance of body language and confidence.

Modi’s success lies in seizing the moment and hitting the message home. No one would have the illusion that India can claim a status of an ‘equal’ with America. But, it can certainly expect to be regarded as the “first among equals” — when it comes to America’s Asia game plan. Here Modi has played his cards eminently well and through a series of smart moves become from a “persona non-grata” to a good-friend of Barrack  – even exchanging high fives in private — if some reports are to be believed.

A long way really from  -the pious platitudes of Panchsheel, Non-Alignment and the “good-friends” spiel.

When Left turns Right

Modi and BJP aren't going away in a hurry

Article first published in +Swarajya click here to read

Since the state assembly results were out last Thursday (May 19th) – two sets of views are dominating the op-ed space in print. The first – media pundits across board are finding merit in Amit Shah – Narendra Modi’s strategy for creeping expansion of BJP’s footprint to hitherto unconquered geographies. The second lot — are a series of very convoluted justification of how they were so widely off the mark in their prediction of the West Bengal results. From – a position of taking the outcome for granted – as a cakewalk for Mamata – their hopes had soared for the Left-Congress “Jot” (alliance) gathering traction as the polls progressed. 

The first is more interesting. It took just one election – in which BJP won a single state and in the others managed to only increase its vote share – to change the perspective of the media worthies. Simultaneously, those who till recently were all praise for the new improved Rahul Gandhi 2.0 – post his mysterious sabbatical of last summer – sank into a crisis of confidence apprehensive of India, indeed, becoming #CongressMuktBharat if Rahul were to take full-time charge of the party.

What’s common between the two thesis is – after grudgingly swallowing the outcome – the commentators have changed tack and are freely dispensing advice to both Modi and Mamata on how to make the most of a good verdict. One would have thought by now they would know that these two self made leaders – seldom listen to the counsel of others. But, guess, they feel it is worth a try – if for nothing else - to build bridges and mend fences as neither Modi nor Mamata are likely to go away in a hurry.

What all this still doesn’t explain though – is the abrupt jettisoning of media’s darling — Rahul Gandhi, like the proverbial baby with the bathwater. Papers and channels that were vehemently opposed to Modi and BJP are writing first drafts of obituaries anticipating the imminent decimiation of the grand-old party (in its current form). While some are joining the chorus of “Priyanka lao, Congress Bachao” — others are decrying the formula of “more dynasty” to make up for the talent-deficit in the current generation of the family. The larger eco-system created by the Congress — seem to be more concerned about the future of Congress than, perhaps, Congressmen themselves.

No matter what the political soothsayers have to say about the proverbial phoenix rising from the ashes etc — in their heart they know Congress has not only lost its capacity to be the party in power at the centre but its viability as an alliance partner is also under question. Its often cited that BJP itself had been reduced to a party of two members in Parliament and made a determined comeback. Why can’t Congress repeat such an act ? Or for that matter — the return of Lalu’s RJD in #Bihar. 

The inherent fallacy in this wishful thinking is easy to explain. BJPs turn-around was achieved not by any one man or family — it had the entire organisation of the party and the RSS working for its revival. Lalu’s rehabilitation was achieved by the unstinted backing of his community — caste base, who felt one of their own had been victimised — in the power war of the political elite. Unfortunately, Rahul Gandhi evokes no such emotional surplus among Congress’ core constituents. 

Thus the prospects of BJP occupying the central space vacated by the Congress and the motley crowd of regional warlords jostling against it — is not a scenario that excites the media mandarins. But, these elections have brought home a few more sharp realisations that are even more unsettling for the Congress nurtured ecosystem — 

1. Even without winning elections BJP can emerge as a force to reckon with nationally by sheer increase in Vote Share; 
2. If the new trend of the electorate voting decisively in state elections based on local issues and sub-national lines, it is likely they will vote in the Lok Sabha elections keeping the larger national picture in mind;
3. Narendra Modi still remains the most popular and credible National Leader. Therefore, no matter which way some of the forthcoming state polls (Uttar Pradesh, Rajasthan etc) might go — and people may yet trust Modi with another term as Prime Minister.

So, it is not the Congress or Rahul Gandhi but Narendra Modi and BJP who can’t be written off in a hurry.

When Acche Din is a Test-Tube baby

Travelling through other India (Bharat) one notices the explosion of 2 sectors — #Education and #Healthcare. Even in remote #Haryana or #Rajasthan there are bill-boards along the high-ways advertising schools (invariably “English Medium”) and coaching classes for Engineering and Medical Colleges. Apart from general hospitals — there is the interesting phenomenon of mushrooming “Fertility Clinics” (crudely called “Test-tube baby Centre) in the “rurban” areas.

Both are good developments per se (questions about quality notwithstanding) also indicate the rising aspiration levels of people — for which I would give credit to Television — the General Entertainment Channels (GEC) rather than News TV. And, this is — perhaps — one area where Soap Operas do play a positive role beyond peddling fairness creams and shampoos. For these changes (both education, healthcare and even maternity / fertility clinics) — cannot happen unless the women of the house are aware and concerned.

It is on the back of this “aspirational India” — more than promise of “Acche Din” — that Narendra Modi sailed through the 2014 elections. But, in my view, Education (HRD) and Health have both under performed in his government. The Health Minister has been invisible and dormant (have not understood till date the political compulsions for replacing Dr Harsh Vardhan with J P Nadda) — giving a free-leash to Yoga Gurus and Ayurveda entrepreneurs — offering cures from fertility (Putra Jeevak Beej) to aids and homosexuality. On the other hand, the HRD Ministry has been made dysfunctional by its “controversy a day” Boss Woman— who I still consider to be extremely capable and effective. But, her strength obviously lies elsewhere (and that is no jibe at her academic qualification or the lack of it).

Two dominant constituencies — who tilted the balance decisively in favour of Modi were Youth and Women. Losing them — could be lethal as the Bihar Elections recently demonstrated.

Piece first published in @Medium.Com click on this to read

Despite the negative surround-sound Modi is on track

Why BJP needs to form government in Uttarakhand and Jammu-Kashmir

Article first published in +ABPLIVE  click here to read


Even some avowed Narendra Modi supporters were surprised by BJP’s apparent desperation to form governments in Arunachal, Uttarakhand and, now, Jammu & Kashmir. While in Arunachal and Uttarakhand they seemed to be in an unseemly rush to topple incumbent regimes, in J&K they eschewed pride to put up with months of obdurate posturing by Mehbooba Mufti hoping to reach an understanding. The reason is not far to seek. After decimation in Delhi and Bihar and dim prospects of in West Bengal (Assam is still an open book) – Modi-Shah combine need to pocket as many Rajya Sabha seats as possible to get out of the parliamentary stalemate.

Travelling through Uttar Pradesh last week – though it is early days yet to make any predictions no matter what sundry ‘Mood of the Nation’ polls might have to say – it is absolutely clear that neither Samajwadi Party or Bahujan Samaj Party are going to be a push over in 2017 unlike in 2014 Lok Sabha Polls. While Mayawati and BSP are understandably banking on the anti-incumbency factor, in recent months Akhilesh Yadav has been working hard at not only retaining SP’s core-constituents but also winning back the disenchanted voters by some ‘visible’ efforts at governance and development. Prashant Kishor and Priyanka Gandhi may not work magic with Rahul Gandhi – but in an alliance Congress can fetch some incremental seats, as it had arguably done for MGB in Bihar. But, by present reckoning, Lucknow pundits don’t give BJP more than 80 seats in the Assembly – unless miracles happen between now and 2017.

The interesting phenomenon in all this is - while BJP’s stock is floundering and RSS continues to be ambivalent towards the government – Modi’s own rating remains high. Sure, people don’t rule out the possibility of a compromise choice of PM emerging (for example, Nitish Kumar) if a third “secular” front has the numbers in 2019 – but there is still no single challenger to Narendra Modi at the national level. For all the hype built around Rahul Gandhi V 2.0 – he will be at best a supporting cast if Congress is not the largest party in a coalition. And, much as Arvind Kejriwal may try to position himself as the already anointed ‘PM-in-Waiting” – no seasoned politician – like Lalu, Nitish, Pawar, Mulayam  and even Mamata - will trust him in the PM’s chair.

The silver lining in all this is – BJP is showing a new resolve not to allow the economic agenda to be stalled by Congress’ perverse obstructionism. Modi and Amit Shah know – rhetoric won’t carry them beyond 2016. The cash registers – both for business and the public have to start ringing sooner than later – if Modi is serious about winning a second term in 2019.

Many believe Budget Session 2016 will be the turning point for Modi Sarkar. For the first time it is showing signs of getting the act together in Parliament with a strategy in place. Arun Jaitley presented a non-spectacular budget but with both economics and heart at the right place – which even the opposition found difficult to critique (barring the EPF proposal that in hindsight appears was a red-herring deliberately planted to divert attention from more substantive provisions). Apart from getting the Aadhar Bill passed - arguably by procedural gamesmanship – and with other important legislations like the Real Estate Bill slipped under the radar – BJP’s floor managers are beginning to look almost savvy .

Placing the Mining and Minerals Development and Regulations Act Amendment in Lok Sabha the government has shown the will to bite the bullet on policy bugs that are tripping the economy. The acid test will, of course, be GST – but there too Arun Jaitley is exuding greater confidence than he was even a few weeks ago.

It is clear Modi is proceeding as per a plan. That the scripted “angry-acts” of Rahul Gandhi and the surround sound of ‘tolerance’ and FOS has not rattled the Prime Minister was obvious from his speech at the BJP Conclave – where he asked the members not to get distracted by “opposition propaganda” and carry the message of development (Vikas) to the masses.

Now with greater alignment between the RBI Governor and the Finance Ministry and BJP’s increased strength in Rajya Sabha reforms can go through the economy should finally get rolling, as predicted by many. The Budget signaled a significant course correction towards “Bharat”. As increased spends on MNREGA with focused and leak-proof digital disbursement through Aadhar backed Direct Cash Transfer Schemes start reaching the target population and Social Security Innovations like Jan-Dhan and Fasal Bima Yojnas begin to bear fruit – the “Acche Din” slogan may not sound like “Jumla” anymore and put fresh wind into BJP’s sail.

Pathankot Attack

Is Pathankot Doval’s Second Kandahar?

Article First Published in +ABPLIVE (click here to read)

Just on the eve of the New Year – a retired intelligence officer who had accompanied Ajit Doval on the Kandahar rescue mission – recalled in a tweet its 15^th anniversary and what a New Year celebration it was for them on return. In sharp contrast, 2016 – opened with the Pathankot attack.

The sister publication of this channel – Ananda Bazar Patrika, the highest circulated Single Edition Daily, had a tongue-in-cheek headline “Doval-ee Doba-len Pathankot-e”. Though the nuance of the pun is lost in translation – roughly it meant: Doval “goofed up” Pathankot. A day ago – the group’s English Daily – The Telegraph, Calcutta – carried a well-researched account of how the Pathankot counter operations were mishandled and raised numerous unanswered questions over the attack and its subsequent handling. The refrain has been similar across large sections of mainstream media.

As expected in this day and age of Social Media, the cacophony of rival choirs – one singing accolades for Doval and the other running him down–filled the airwaves and choked intellectual bandwidth. The mysteries and gaffes apart – there was no doubt that Pathankot – was a phenomenal attack on a defence base, just as Mumbai 26/11 was on civilians. What set apart Pathankot even more was – the almost simultaneous assault on the Indian Consulate in Mazar-i-Sharif, Afghanistan. Discerning analysts who are not caught up in jingoistic crossfire on TV and Op-eds - were quick to pick up the distinguishing features of the latest denouement. First, the chinar-leaf of Kashmir has been dropped and now it’s a no-holds bar attack on India. There was none of the customary denials of where the attackers came from and the control station of the operations. Finally – parallel opening of the Afghan front was a loud and clear signal for India – to stay-off Pakistan’s backyard.

On the domestic front – with Doval taking most of the ire and flak – to an extent spared the Prime Minister of a frontal attack by the opposition and media. But, does this also indicate a weakening of Narendra Modi’s -“leveling” as it were – in one area where he was head and shoulder over his predecessors and contemporary Asian leaders?

In a previous article – this author had himself argued that however stage-managed and choreographed the stop-over at Lahore – was necessary to apply soothing aloe-vera over the blisters that Pakistan had surely developed after display of camaraderie in Kabul. But, as it turned out, the bon-homie with one Sharif (Nawaz) probably left the other Sharif (Army Chief, Raheel) smarting – just like Musharraf was miffed after Vajpayee’s Lahore bhai-chara.

Was there a miscalculation in choosing the hug and holding hands photo-shop moment – prompted as it might have been by common friends in  Washington - preceded by a well-publicized meeting between the two NSAs on neutral ground (Bangkok) ? Certainly – hyping it up as “unconventional” and “out of the box” diplomacy was premature. By now, both Modi and the Indian establishment should have realized that dining with Nawaz Sharif was as futile as Modi having “Chai-pe-Charcha” with Sonia Gandhi. Neither want him to succeed.

Clearly – the PMO (meaning the NSA) and the Foreign Office should have better anticipated the mood and tested the ground in Lahore before letting the Prime Minister make an unscheduled landing there. As one redoubtable commentator has pointed out –Nixon’s China Visit came after months of preparation by Kissinger.

The subsequent blabber over Pakistan’s action (which some TV anchors eloquently called “back-stabbing”) ranging from remonstrations to restraint (the ‘talks must carry on’) reveals confusion in India’s Af-Pak policy that is akin to what one sees on issues of the economy and reforms at home. Coming after the Bihar setback – as it does – it may not augur well from the Prime Minister’s standing in the balance 3 odd years of his term.

The trajectory of Modi’s tenure seems to be trailing that of Obama. First disappointments on the domestic front – followed by setbacks in foreign policy. Already one sees RSS increasing control over by appointing “Pracharaks” at the helm at many places – West Bengal, Rajasthan – now probably UP and Bihar too. Though far from being a ‘lame-duck’ Prime Minister by any stretch of imagination – there is need for some strong rear-guard action – not just to stop the slide and check the drift but recover lost ground and put Modi back in the driver’s seat once again.

But, Pathankot like Kandahar will hang around Mr. Doval’s neck like a cross for a long time to come – unless neutralized in a short time.