Assembly 2017 Results: Time to look ahead

Article first published at +ABP NEWS curated in Sandip Ghose' Blog: Right Angle click here

Let us stop flogging the dead horse of demonetisation and not settle scores among each other about who had predicted what outcome. Face it, we were all off the mark to a greater or lesser extent including most Exit Pollsters. It is all par for the course in a 7-phase election, which can be as tricky as an eighteen-hole Golf course.

Several myths and assumptions have been broken, but again we should not self-flagellate ourselves by blowing our own fallacies or fantasies, as the case might be. So, focus on some home truths and move forward.

Rahul Gandhi and Akhilesh Yadav wasted precious time and energy on bashing Notebandi, while Captain Amarinder Singh who royally ignored it came home swimmingly. There is no value in a post-mortem on whether any of the proclaimed benefits of demonetisation have been achieved. It is history and certainly will be a non-issue in the 2019 elections. By then, even Amartya Sen (long live the revered Bharat Ratna) would also have forgotten about it.

But, what is here to stay is increased digitisation of the economy, Aadhar and PAN tagging of transactions leading to, whether we like it or not, greater transparency and, hopefully, higher tax collection. GST is going to become a reality and with increased numbers in the Rajya Sabha the government will not have to take recourse to money bills for passing every single unpopular legislation. So, stop whining about ‘tax-terrorism’ and brace up for some more tough economic measures – such as on Benami Property and unaccounted Gold.

Businessmen and Corporates who have been waiting for their turn in 2019, when the political parties have to come to them for funds, should do well to take note that demonetisation did not affect elections either in UP or Maharashtra. Narendra Modi’s definition of “Acche Din” may not be the same as what they were used to during previous dispensations.

It is time for the opposition, still tormented by thoughts of the resounding drubbing of May 2014, to realise that lungpower and disruptions of Parliament will not translate into votes.

Second, Narendra Modi and Amit Shah have long internalised the theme of Tagore’s “Ekla Chalo Re” realising that going forward it is going to be BJP Vs the Rest all the way. Therefore, while Prashant Kishor may get richer by advising parties on how to beat the BJP and more Harvard Professors may make a bee-line for the booming electoral market of India, Shah-Modi have already moved the game at least two notches higher.

In UP, Narendra Modi has conclusively demonstrated how it is possible to cut across caste, communities, geography and socio-economic strata by creating a larger national agenda.

After Maharashtra and UP, it can be safely said that BJP will not have to seek out allies for 2019 (even in the South) instead regional parties will woe BJP in the hope of a couple of berths at the centre.

One may not have to wait for too long to see how ripples of Uttar Pradesh victory into neighbouring Bihar, where Nitish Kumar is already seeing to be warming up towards Modi being one of the few in the opposition to find merit in Demonetisation.

It would also be fascinating to watch how the heads of some of the regional empires, who were dreaming of being the consensus candidate or playing kingmaker in the event of a third front cobbling up majority in 2019, will recalibrate their ambitions and strategy.

It will be a psychologists delight to study how these results affect Arvind Kejriwal , who was already behaving as a shadow Prime Minister.

However, what can be said for sure is, unless bitten by an overwhelming urge for self-destruction, no party will ally with Congress as an equal partner at least as long as Rahul Gandhi is at the helm.

These elections would have also have broken the reverie of those who were romanticising about the entry of Priyanka Vadra into politics. Her brief guest appearance in the Gandhi pocket boroughs of Amethi and Rae Bareli would have made her fans realise she is at best a Goddess with feet of clay. And, if one were to accept her party seniors’ claims that she had played a pivotal role in managing the war-room for UP, it sadly shows that she is no better than her brother in shaping political strategy.

On the other hand Captain Amarinder Singh has proven that the Dynasty may be Dead (or dying) but long lives the Royalty. One need not belabour the point that Congress could never have won Punjab without him. Whether other minor royals in the Congress, like Jyotiraditya Scindia, will take a cue from him only time can tell.

Finally, it can be said that manufactured controversies can create social media stir and get a few stray headlines in the inside pages of international media but leave greater India, which has many more existential issues to cope with, untouched.

The left-liberal media and intelligentsia should accept this and desist from making themselves even more irrelevant by opposing every move of the government for the heck of it.

Similarly, smart quips and sound-bytes may sound nice in TV studios media and get pats in the crony circuit, but do not cut ice with the voters.

At the end of the day, if the arguments are not substantive, Patillas are just empty vessels that make noise, which has little use for Mrs Obama or even a humble desi homemaker.

Modi Town Hall

Article first published in +ABP NEWS Click here


The genius of Prime Minister Narendra Modi lies in always staying two steps ahead of his rivals. While his opponents are still struggling with Social Media, aping his Chai Pe Charcha or Mann Ki Baat, he goes Boom! and raises the bar with a US style Town Hall.

Warming up by – now almost a ritual – some friendly trolling of the media, he also sent out a gentle signal that he can communicate to the masses over their head. To the opposition and the liberal chatterati, his message seemed to be: I decide the subject of my discourse, select topics that I wish to speak on, at a time of my choosing.

So he set the agenda, and how!

Little did anyone expect him to take the ‘gaurakshaks’ head-on. And what a pasting it was. There were no pious platitudes on respecting all religions or other such homilies. To say more cows die of consuming plastic bags and waste and asking State Governments to prepare dossiers on self-appointed ‘Gaurakshaks’ was a double masterstroke that would have left even his raucous critics gasping.

If he disappointed Omar Abdullah and his close friends in the media by not talking about the ‘Valley’, he must have done so advisedly. The Government is working as per a strategy in Jammu & Kashmir and the Prime Minister would certainly not like to derail it by making a comment which is bound to given a different spin by those, to borrow his phrase about ‘Gaurakshaks’, who have opened shops in the name of Kashmir. Sending Rajnath Singh to Pakistan for the SAARC, he has already driven home the message to the jihadists across the LoC – that the Government will play in Kashmir as per its own rules which are not part of regional dialogue.

By deftly swinging the focus to agriculture, handlooms (Khadi for Nation, Khadi for Fashion) , Smart Villages not just Smart Cities, he quietly pricked some holes in the balloons of his friends across the aisle in Parliament. So, Rahul Gandhi’s speechwriters have to think of something new in place of the tiresome suit-boot. Sonia Gandhi won’t be able to speak just about the plight of weavers on her next trip to Varanasi. And, Lalu Prasad has to come up with something smarter than his earlier ‘smart villages’ quip.


What makes Narendra Modi’s speeches and exhortations potent is the ring of passion and authenticity in whatever he speaks. This cannot be achieved by mere oratory alone unless there is a genuine conviction at the core. Those familiar with the thoughts and writings of Swami Vivekananda would know about his obsession with “preventive healthcare”.

Safe drinking water, hygienic cooking, healthy eating habits, yoga and physical exercise had engaged Vivekananda more than a century ago. One can decipher a distinct impression of his teachings in Narendra Modi’s views on these issues. For that, one does not need an Oxford Economist or Harvard-educated lawyer as Prime Minister, but someone with a heart and common sense.

Of course, one can almost visualise Sanjay Jha or someother bright young Congress spokesperson saying on TV – even Rahul Gandhi understands the importance of safe drinking water – as he always carries his bottle of Evian while visiting Dalit homes.

Talking of “last mile” first, the Prime Minister reminded the States of their responsibility to reach governance to the grass-roots. But, the message is equally relevant for his party colleagues and Sangh followers. Narendra Modi alone cannot keep shouting from the ramparts of Red Fort, Town Hall or Mann Ki Baat. It is also for them to carry the message to the last man in every town and village.

Dateline Indore: Travel through the land of saffron poppies

Article first published in +ABPLIVE Click here

The tract from Chittaurgarh in Rajasthan to the adjoining districts of Neemuch and Mandsaur in the Malwa region of Madhya Pradesh is remarkably prosperous. These are few areas in the country that have ‘licensed’ cultivation of poppy. After handing over the contracted quantities to the state there is enough ‘extras’ and left-over by products (like Poshto and Doda) to be traded under the benevolent eyes of a deity – Sanwariya Seth – considered as a ‘business partner’ by the locals. Needless to add, the supplementary income exceeds the official earnings by multiples. So, Digvijaya Singh was being clever by half when he dared Shivraj Singh Chauhan to ban poppy cultivation in Madhya Pradesh.

Business here is generally insulated from economic downturns unless, of course, the crop is severely affected. Opiates are in demand both in times of depression and boom – a local associate with interest in real estate and jewellery enlightens me. Unlike neighbouring Rajasthan where  a certain degree of dissonance is palpable, Malwa is still soaked in saffron. On a visible high after the resounding success of the recent Ujjain Simhastha Kumbh, he is not worried about another term for BJP in the state or a second innings for Modi. But, as a businessman his critique of Modi Sarkar is on approach and strategy.

Modi-ji had promised to get “Kala-Dhan” from abroad – but instead his government seems more concerned about unearthing black money of the people who voted for BJP. He was upset at the real-estate business being in the doldrums stuck with high inventory and the counter-productive excise duty imposed on jewellery. The fear of the taxman had led to the flight of free-cash – the life-blood of builders . For jewellery – the one-percent tax is not an issue – but that it would force jewelers to declare transactions in “white” would be a major nuisance for the trade. He blamed such ‘impractical’ decisions on bureaucrats – whom he felt were alive to the difficulties of large industrialists but had little understanding of the problems of small businessmen and traders. A subtle replay, as it were, of the ‘suit-boot’ refrain – but the general angst at the elusive “miracles” that one saw a year ago had distinctly dissipated.

Yet – he is hopeful of the future. After three consecutive bad seasons the Rabi crops were healthy. A bumper Soya Bean harvest was in the offing. Now with predictions of a good monsoon the mood in the rural economy is looking up. Infrastructure projects are showing signs of traction and with the elections on the horizon – the state government is beginning to loosen its purse strings. Overall – the realization was beginning to set in that – while the dream of ‘Acche Din’ may have been a hyperbole – things could have been much worse and the government had managed the economy pretty well under the circumstances.

Now, cut to Indore. Meet a bunch of saffron-ites from the trading community of the city and nearby towns.  Though there was no windfall for the ‘faithful’, they can sense a certain stability and predictability in the business environment. Even though it has been a long time since Congress last ruled the state – the memories of mismanagement and corruption are yet to heal and the factional infighting between the major and minor royalties does not inspire confidence for a resurrection any time soon.

I tease them about the prices of tomatoes. That we can think of having tomatoes in summer is itself a sign of changing times, they retort. Indians are accustomed to cyclical shortages and inflation is part of progress and the people they feel are convinced about the sincerity of the government. If these crises were to happen due to “ghotala” (corruption), reckless action or negligence there would be backlash. Now they know it has happened despite the best efforts of the central government. So no one is blaming Modi.

Everyone understands, the key is growth of the economy and as long as that is ensured everything else will quietly fall in place. Meanwhile, the benefits of all the schemes launched by the Prime Minister – be it Jan Dhan Yojana or Crop Insurance will start yielding dividends and reduce dependence on doles.

Again I try to bait them on BJP’s uncertain prospects in Punjab and possible set back in Rajasthan. As they invoke the now familiar logic of the changing dynamics between state and central elections. I argue why would the same not apply to Rahul Gandhi or Kejriwal – but it only invites laughter of derision. The ‘Bhakts’ if you insist on calling them so  are convinced Modi and Amit Shah are working to a plan and 2019 will see an encore of the “Modi Magic”.  Citing Modi’s towering ratings in all recent opinion polls the say “the Man is the Message” and that is why Modi cuts through the layers and communicates directly with the masses.

And, just then Boom!! Narendra Modi comes on air to answer everything the nation wanted to know but were afraid to ask.

What do we really know about Priyanka Gandhi ?

Click here to read original article in +DailyO India Today 

Hope Priyanka campaigns outside Amethi, Rae Bareli.
– Ghulam Nabi Azad, India Today

The clamour for Priyanka Gandhi to come to the forefront is gaining traction. “Priyanka lao, Congress bachao” — has been the refrain among Congress workers in Uttar Pradesh for quite some time now.


Of late, many well-wishers of the Congress in the media have also joined the chorus or been co-opted to endorsing the prescription. Therefore, Azad’s statement is no surprise and is part of a carefully crafted “soft launch” strategy to use a marketing parlance. Yet, it is loaded with presumptions. Let us examine.

It is believed Priyanks made Rahul agree to that disastrous interview with Arnab Goswami.
Very little is known about Priyanka Gandhi, not just to the general public, but also to large sections of Congressmen and leaders — beyond her stunning looks, charming smile, elegant cotton saris and hair-style that reminds people of her grandmother. The rest are largely impressions gathered from snippets on TV and occasional crisp sound bites — mostly while campaigning for her mother or brother in the family constituencies of Amethi and Rae Bareli.

Beyond this, her rare extended interaction with the press and public was in an interview with a high-profile news anchor some years back, which not many would have watched given the paltry viewership of English news channels in India. I remember it for two revelations. First, that she owes her excellent Hindi to Mrs Teji Bachchan — mother of Amitabh Bachchan. It was, perhaps, the only acknowledgement in many years by any Gandhi about the contribution of the Bachchans to their family. Second, her remark about why she takes her children along on constituency tours. This, for me, was a clear indication that she wants her children to also join the family political enterprise.

Everything else is largely speculation, calibrated leaks or carefully planted seeds. For example, it is said that she is a great cook and the evidence cited is the samosas and idlis she serves to the staff in her political secretariat (that could well have been made by her kitchen help or easily ordered in from Sukh Sagar).

Not much is known about her political acumen — except that she is a key member of the Gandhi family council.

It is generally believed she was the one who made Rahul Gandhi agree to that disastrous interview with Arnab Goswami on Times Now — which, by popular consensus, was the last nail in the coffin of Congress campaign for 2014 elections. If that is correct, one cannot give her high scores for political judgment and media strategy.

Also read: Prashant Kishor can’t make Congress win UP. Rahul Gandhi won’t
There are other rumours, or shall we say gossip — about her temper, mood swings and arrogance — but few dare speak of them above hushed tones.

Though it is said that, there is nothing “private” about public personalities, it would not be proper to talk about her personal life. But since she has given no definitive indication of her aversion to entering politics — it is not unfair for us to expect her to clarify her position on various allegations against the family.

Here, one is making a distinction advisedly between “family” (sasuraal) and “paternal family” (maaika) as is the custom of this country. Like she asserts with a great deal of justifiable pride, “Main Rajiv Gandhi ki beti hoon” — one would have liked to hear her say: “Robert Vadra mera pati hain” (not “Main Robert Vadra ki patni hoon” or “Main is ghar ki bahu hoon”,feminists take note) — as per Indian tradition, which the Gandhi family avers by. While Sonia Gandhi takes every opportunity to remind us she is the “daughter-in-law” of the Gandhis, we have not heard Priyanka make any such claims about being a “Vadra bahu”.

So far, there is not much of empirical evidence available on her political fungibility, except that she displays streaks of Indira Gandhi — that can be good or bad, depending on which traits one is alluding to. If by any chance, she has traces of the Emergency avatar of her grandmother, or the 1984 riots image of her father, then there is enough reason for the country to worry.

Therefore, for the present, it has got to be a pure leap of faith for Congressmen, Congress supporters, Gandhi family retainers and fan clubs alike — banking entirely on her dynastic credentials and charisma.
________________________________________
Originally published at +DailyO India Today 

When Left turns Right

Modi and BJP aren't going away in a hurry

Article first published in +Swarajya click here to read

Since the state assembly results were out last Thursday (May 19th) – two sets of views are dominating the op-ed space in print. The first – media pundits across board are finding merit in Amit Shah – Narendra Modi’s strategy for creeping expansion of BJP’s footprint to hitherto unconquered geographies. The second lot — are a series of very convoluted justification of how they were so widely off the mark in their prediction of the West Bengal results. From – a position of taking the outcome for granted – as a cakewalk for Mamata – their hopes had soared for the Left-Congress “Jot” (alliance) gathering traction as the polls progressed. 

The first is more interesting. It took just one election – in which BJP won a single state and in the others managed to only increase its vote share – to change the perspective of the media worthies. Simultaneously, those who till recently were all praise for the new improved Rahul Gandhi 2.0 – post his mysterious sabbatical of last summer – sank into a crisis of confidence apprehensive of India, indeed, becoming #CongressMuktBharat if Rahul were to take full-time charge of the party.

What’s common between the two thesis is – after grudgingly swallowing the outcome – the commentators have changed tack and are freely dispensing advice to both Modi and Mamata on how to make the most of a good verdict. One would have thought by now they would know that these two self made leaders – seldom listen to the counsel of others. But, guess, they feel it is worth a try – if for nothing else - to build bridges and mend fences as neither Modi nor Mamata are likely to go away in a hurry.

What all this still doesn’t explain though – is the abrupt jettisoning of media’s darling — Rahul Gandhi, like the proverbial baby with the bathwater. Papers and channels that were vehemently opposed to Modi and BJP are writing first drafts of obituaries anticipating the imminent decimiation of the grand-old party (in its current form). While some are joining the chorus of “Priyanka lao, Congress Bachao” — others are decrying the formula of “more dynasty” to make up for the talent-deficit in the current generation of the family. The larger eco-system created by the Congress — seem to be more concerned about the future of Congress than, perhaps, Congressmen themselves.

No matter what the political soothsayers have to say about the proverbial phoenix rising from the ashes etc — in their heart they know Congress has not only lost its capacity to be the party in power at the centre but its viability as an alliance partner is also under question. Its often cited that BJP itself had been reduced to a party of two members in Parliament and made a determined comeback. Why can’t Congress repeat such an act ? Or for that matter — the return of Lalu’s RJD in #Bihar. 

The inherent fallacy in this wishful thinking is easy to explain. BJPs turn-around was achieved not by any one man or family — it had the entire organisation of the party and the RSS working for its revival. Lalu’s rehabilitation was achieved by the unstinted backing of his community — caste base, who felt one of their own had been victimised — in the power war of the political elite. Unfortunately, Rahul Gandhi evokes no such emotional surplus among Congress’ core constituents. 

Thus the prospects of BJP occupying the central space vacated by the Congress and the motley crowd of regional warlords jostling against it — is not a scenario that excites the media mandarins. But, these elections have brought home a few more sharp realisations that are even more unsettling for the Congress nurtured ecosystem — 

1. Even without winning elections BJP can emerge as a force to reckon with nationally by sheer increase in Vote Share; 
2. If the new trend of the electorate voting decisively in state elections based on local issues and sub-national lines, it is likely they will vote in the Lok Sabha elections keeping the larger national picture in mind;
3. Narendra Modi still remains the most popular and credible National Leader. Therefore, no matter which way some of the forthcoming state polls (Uttar Pradesh, Rajasthan etc) might go — and people may yet trust Modi with another term as Prime Minister.

So, it is not the Congress or Rahul Gandhi but Narendra Modi and BJP who can’t be written off in a hurry.

What does Sonia Gandhi's Mother-in-Law fixation "Herald" for the "Nation"

Kyun ki Saas bhi Kabhi Dictator Hoti thi

Article first published in +DailyO India Today (click here to read)

Sonia Gandhi’s words – “I’m Indira Gandhi’s daughter-in-law” – are ominous. We all know what the nation had to go through when a single judge of the Allahabad High Court had indicted Indira. Then, as the Lutyens’ folklore goes, she went by the personal advise of Siddhartha Shankar Ray, more a friend and confidante than a lawyer – waking up the President late at night to sign on the dotted line of the Emergency ordinance. Though the Congress wasn’t short of legal luminaries even then – none came out pouncing on the Allahabad High Court judgment nor did MPs create pandemonium in Parliament.

But, now a mere order for personal appearance in court – has all the legal eagles of Congress hyperventilating in public – making insinuations of political vendetta – that borders precariously on the edge of contempt of court. One also doesn’t recall either of Indira Gandhi’s two sons holding out threats akin to “I shall reply in the Parliament” – though the younger one, Sanjay, did emerge from behind the curtains much later when the Emergency was well under way (so, there may be some merit in the view that Rahul is cast more in the mould of his uncle than the father).

Congress MP’s, loyal subjects of the Queen as they are, brought both houses of Parliament to a halt – with cries of political conspiracy and witch-hunt - putting at stake the already fragile fate of the Winter Session.

One shudders to think – if this is happening when the Congress is out of power and down with 44 MPs in the Lok Sabha – what would the worthy “Bahu” have done following her revered Sasu-Ma’s footsteps if the UPA were ruling today.

Yet, this is the same Congress that swears by the independence of the judiciary and asserts authorship rights over the Constitution. “Let the law take its own course” and “the guilty be punished” are pet phrases of Congress leaders – when it comes to people other than their own royalty. Thus even the redoubtable Lalu Prasad Yadav had to spend a few days tending to the gardens of Ranchi Jail – not to forget lesser allies like A Raja and Kanimozhi who were long-stay house-guests at Tihar. Of course, Narendra Modi is considered convicted without any court having pronounced him so and Amit Shah’s sentence – only reinforced people’s faith in the country’s judicial system.

It can be argued that – such exaggerated reaction of the Congress and its first family – only points towards guilt and real fear of exposure. If the Gandhis and the many star lawyers in the Congress’ fold are so supremely confident of their case – why should they be afraid of going through the due process of law? But, that is going into the realms of speculation of a matter that is still sub-judice.

Similarly, It would be disingenuous to suggest that this entire development is a ploy by Narendra Modi’s detractors in and outside the BJP to derail his “truce” efforts for getting the GST Bill passed and make his position even more vulnerable post the Bihar election set-back.

What is most worrying, however, is how easily the anti-BJP political spectrum and a large section of the media have bought into the “vendetta” theory – totally ignoring the implication on the stature of the judiciary. They don’t seem to be a wee-bit worried that it reveals an imperialist mindset of a dynasty that considers itself to be the natural rulers of this country and, therefore, by definition above the law. So, anything from allegations of land-grab against the son-in-law or bending state government laws for construction of summer retreats in the hills to misappropriation of trust funds are turned on its head by a single-point counter-accusation of political vengeance.

People who are constantly crying wolf about the spectre of Emergency being imposed again, would do well to pause and reflect – for all his perceived flaws Narendra Modi has never run away from the law. He has faced trials – albeit with the best of legal defence as anyone is entitled to – and come out acquitted. Nor has Modi – tried to bypass the judiciary to get even with his political adversaries. Even assuming – the BJP  (like many other governments before him) has used investigating agencies for political ends it has always deferred to the courts (Teesta Setalvad being a case in point).

Therefore, those concerned about the fate of democracy in India need to seriously ponder – whether the nation is safer in the hands of a democratically elected homegrown chai-wallah who may have graduated to wearing monogrammed suits or a lady who has devolved from Sable Coats to Cotton Sarees  – but whose natural upbringing makes her genetically coded to fiercely protecting the family’s existence – perhaps, the very same quality she so admired in her Mother-in-Law.

Modi Outreach or Out of Reach ?

Article first published in +ABP NEWS (click here to read)

Narendra Modi is one politician – who can never do anything right – at least as far as the media is concerned. Last week after his stirring speech in the Parliament on Constitution Day (which itself became a subject of controversy) Op-ed pundits strenuously analyzed how the speech was high on rhetoric but short on authenticity. When PM Modi invited Sonia Gandhi and Man Mohan Singh for tea prior to the start of the Parliament Winter Session – his critics could barely conceal their glee. The suggestion being – the PM had to get off his high horse to taste the dust of Bihar.

But, to cut the chase – is PM Modi really trying to reach out ? Has he come to a belated realization that confrontation can only get him thus far and from here on the journey could well be down-hill with Congress’ Lion King-in-waiting having drawn his first blood and the rest of the opposition discovered the magic tape to hold together a disparate bunch, at least in the short run.

The post-Diwali Milan at the BJP HQ – almost a month after the festival seemed like an afterthought. At least going by the photographs of the now customary ‘selfie’ session with the PM published in the media, the big guns of the media and stars of News TV gave it a miss this year – probably having got their selfies clicked last Diwali and knowing it will be just a social ritual sans any “Breaking News” moment.

Beside this – one has seen little evidence so far of the PM trying to offer the olive branch to his detractors. He has carried on with his official business as usual and gone ahead with his overseas travel schedule ignoring expected digs from the opposition, media and Twitter chaterati (albeit everyone knows these foreign engagements are committed months in advance). So, is there any reason to believe Narendra Modi will drastically change his style – stoop a little to conquer – to overcome odds that might otherwise derail him prematurely after a dream start just18 months ago? Or, putting it plainly is he even capable of such a radical transformation – even for a brief period?

The answer to both those questions is a resounding “NO”. First, he is too proud (call him an irredeemable egotist or the man’s hubris if you like) to climb down – at anyone’s threats or bullying. He would rather break – and fight to finish – than bend. Second, he is acutely aware that being seen to compromise publicly would not only be totally out of sync with his character and brand personality – but come across as even less genuine. Above all, he is too sharp and politically savvy not to realize – that any number of “Chai pe Charcha” or backroom deals are going to assuage the Gandhis – who see him as the single biggest threat to the survival of the dynasty.

One remembers – in the latter part of the campaign – when he was surer of his victory – Modi told some interviewers: “to win an election you need votes, but to run a country you need the support of the entire country”. He repeated this again in Parliament and was seen extending courtesies to Sonia Gandhi in the opening session. But, it ended there. Many believe, with some justification, the initial show of grace and desire to be seen as inclusive was more for effect than real. But, one could also argue conversely, Modi had already sensed it was just a matter of time before the ‘dynasty’ struck back with vengeance and, therefore, it would be futile to try and build bridges with them.

Going forward – therefore, it is unlikely that we would see greater bonhomie between Modi and the Congress. Both are stuck with their own existential compulsions. While the Gandhis have little option but to fight for existence, Modi can’t give up – or even temporarily set aside – his mission of demolishing the Nehru-Gandhi legacy for good. He can’t do this by simply tripping them on legal chinks in the family – be it Vadra land deals, black-money or National Herald case – as many of his lay supporters naively suggest – but by systematically dismantling the aura and myths created around them over six decades. And, that is going to be long drawn war of wits.

What we might definitely see in the coming days is Modi and his aides more actively reaching out to the non-Congress opposition and regional parties – luring them with sops and reprieves as indeed more concerted direct contact with his core constituents – while he puts his governance and reforms agenda into high gear. But, for this he has to fix his communication and media strategy double quick as has been widely commented and start relying more on experienced colleagues – like Nitin Gadkari  - and put CMs of BJP ruled states  to better use – rather than just a handful of trusted lieutenants. One redeeming feature – of the current crisis – is how some hitherto ignored young articulate MPs like Meenakshi Lekhi have risen to his defense in Parliament. He would need to press many more like her into action.

Finally – despite criticisms if PM Modi is continuing with his peripatetic foreign policy it is not without a purpose. He wants to build on the equity he has acquired among the global leaders – with whom he finds much easier to communicate and establish rapport than with a few cussed septuagenarian regional chieftains. He knows – as long as the international power bloc sees him as their best bet in India – he has a better chance to counter external forces that Congress will no doubt try to enlist in their insidious campaign to unseat him – as was apparent from recent utterances of Mani Shankar Aiyar and Salman Khurshid.

There is no doubt whatsoever it will be a bumpy road ahead till 2019. But, Modi has enough tenacity to weather the storm and come out a winner.

Gorkhaland Express

Telengana Protestors

In a comment on one of my older blog posts  - the Siliguri Connection (click here to read) a correspondent wrote – that Siliguri should claim its status as a city-state like Chandigarh by the time Gorkhaland is formed (which – according to him or her is only a matter of time). My first reaction – probably emanating from my latent main-land arrogance and Bengali chauvinism - was to dismiss it as a flippant and tongue-in-cheek remark like many friends and readers of my blog are prone to (especially, when posting anonymously). But, then it got me thinking.

Maha - heartburns

Though I have a decent working knowledge of modern Indian history – as any average educated Indian – I have never quite fathomed the under-currents of sub-nationalism that seem to drive the demand for smaller states. I have read and heard – how the linguistic division of the states post independence was an artificial creation. Having lived in Maharashtra for a better part of my life – I have known about the  Marathi heartburn over the loss of Belgaum to Karnataka. But, frankly the extent of underlying emotions  arising out of denial of state identity didn’t quite register on me.  I always thought, it was the politicians jostling to create their own fiefdoms within a democratic set up.

With Kashmir weighing heavily upon our psyche, splintering of the 7 sisters of the North-east and Khalistan – at one time – looking close to the realms of possibility – we have somehow been conditioned to think of any demands for new states as signs of secessionism. We were inclined to put the original demand for Gorkhaland in the same bracket. The making of the 3 new small states of Uttarakhand, Chattisgarh and Jharkhand was also seen more as an exercise of political expediency.

teaching 'em to count

So – when Mayawati declared her intention to split UP into 4 smaller states, our initial reactions were understandably cynical. Certainly, it was a political masterstroke. As a Tweeple wit remarked – before Rahul Gandhi could come to terms with one UP, she created 4 – enough for him to lose count. But, deeper reflection would reveal greater sense beneath her apparently whimsical sleight of hand. After all, what does Uttar Pradesh mean – the inimitable sociologist Ashish Nandy asked in a TV debate. While naming the erstwhile Central provinces – Madhya Pradesh could be attributed to a simple lack of creativity, to christen United Provinces as Uttar Pradesh was bereft of any rationale.

of Maha - Rashtras

That brings me to my favourite party quiz question in Mumbai: Why is Maharashtra called Maharashtra? The real reason – as once explained to a senior colleague of mine – Nirmal Sinha – by a  Marathi Trade Union Leader – is not what the Thackeray Tiger would have us believe (Maha – as in great – rashtra) but “Mahadev (or Shiva)’s Rashtra”. That’s because – it seems 8 out of the 12 Jyotirlingas of Shiva were located in the greater Bombay State ( Somnath, Dwarka, Ujjain, Bhimashanker, Trimbakeshwar, Sri Sailam Mallikarjuna, Omkareshwar, Grijhneshwar). It’s another matter that 4 of them now fall outside of Maharashtra ( in Gujarat, MP and Andhra).

So is it any surprise that, the young Scindia scion – on coming to Mumbai tries to claim his Maratha roots by speaking a smattering of Marathi ?

But, the bigger question is - if by carving out Maharashtra we nixed the identity of the Marathi speaking people around the region.

and, minor - rashtras

Now whether Bundelkhand should include parts of MP as well will be decided in the course of time. But, the question that is boiling is Telengana and can’t be put off much longer. There is little justification of denying Telengana statehood in the face of such over-pouring emotions and political angst and to hold Hyderabad as a pawn in the negotiations is absolutely ludicrous, in my judgment – with due deference to the retired judge whose charming wife light-heartedly says he is a better flirt than a jurist (who said I am not afraid of libel !!).

little donuts

One of my favourite authors, Charles Handy, had in a management context talked of the “Donut Principle”. It basically means, people can identify themselves best at two levels. So you can be a Bengali and an Indian – but not a Bengali, Eastern Indian and Indian (debunking our old proclivity to term any one south of the Vindhyas as South Indians and everyone in the cow belt – North Indians). So, it is difficult to impose artificial regional identities on ethno-culturally heterogeneous communities.

Though I won’t go as far as my former editor boss – who advocates breaking up of South Asia into independent small states – a la the European Union - but with a common national cricket team (where Pakistan, Sri Lanka and Bangladesh will be allowed to have their own cricket teams and Nepal can have the status of Switzerland, retaining their own currency), I think  a further devolution is inevitable and already evident in the emergence of regional parties that have come to stay.

An article by B G Varghese puts some of the issues in a balanced framework (Better and more beautiful)

Meanwhile, I will be waiting for Siliguri to become the Chandigarh of the East.