Post UP 2017: "Bihar Model" is outdated; Opposition must find a new template

Article first published in @abplive.in  (Photo courtesy PTI via ABPNews)



It has been a week since the Assembly election results that stunned the nation came out. Politicians and media were shocked by the now seemingly unstoppable rise of Prime Minister Narendra Modi. While most people are still trying to gather their wits to formulate a response to the stupendous victory of the BJP, the discourse has been dominated by theories on the future of the Congress and Rahul Gandhi.

No doubt there has been discussion on the fate of the major losers, namely the Samajwadi Party, BSP and AAP. But, not much attention has been paid to the reactions of other regional leaders and what this mandate means for them.


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Assembly 2017 Results: Time to look ahead

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Let us stop flogging the dead horse of demonetisation and not settle scores among each other about who had predicted what outcome. Face it, we were all off the mark to a greater or lesser extent including most Exit Pollsters. It is all par for the course in a 7-phase election, which can be as tricky as an eighteen-hole Golf course.

Several myths and assumptions have been broken, but again we should not self-flagellate ourselves by blowing our own fallacies or fantasies, as the case might be. So, focus on some home truths and move forward.

Rahul Gandhi and Akhilesh Yadav wasted precious time and energy on bashing Notebandi, while Captain Amarinder Singh who royally ignored it came home swimmingly. There is no value in a post-mortem on whether any of the proclaimed benefits of demonetisation have been achieved. It is history and certainly will be a non-issue in the 2019 elections. By then, even Amartya Sen (long live the revered Bharat Ratna) would also have forgotten about it.

But, what is here to stay is increased digitisation of the economy, Aadhar and PAN tagging of transactions leading to, whether we like it or not, greater transparency and, hopefully, higher tax collection. GST is going to become a reality and with increased numbers in the Rajya Sabha the government will not have to take recourse to money bills for passing every single unpopular legislation. So, stop whining about ‘tax-terrorism’ and brace up for some more tough economic measures – such as on Benami Property and unaccounted Gold.

Businessmen and Corporates who have been waiting for their turn in 2019, when the political parties have to come to them for funds, should do well to take note that demonetisation did not affect elections either in UP or Maharashtra. Narendra Modi’s definition of “Acche Din” may not be the same as what they were used to during previous dispensations.

It is time for the opposition, still tormented by thoughts of the resounding drubbing of May 2014, to realise that lungpower and disruptions of Parliament will not translate into votes.

Second, Narendra Modi and Amit Shah have long internalised the theme of Tagore’s “Ekla Chalo Re” realising that going forward it is going to be BJP Vs the Rest all the way. Therefore, while Prashant Kishor may get richer by advising parties on how to beat the BJP and more Harvard Professors may make a bee-line for the booming electoral market of India, Shah-Modi have already moved the game at least two notches higher.

In UP, Narendra Modi has conclusively demonstrated how it is possible to cut across caste, communities, geography and socio-economic strata by creating a larger national agenda.

After Maharashtra and UP, it can be safely said that BJP will not have to seek out allies for 2019 (even in the South) instead regional parties will woe BJP in the hope of a couple of berths at the centre.

One may not have to wait for too long to see how ripples of Uttar Pradesh victory into neighbouring Bihar, where Nitish Kumar is already seeing to be warming up towards Modi being one of the few in the opposition to find merit in Demonetisation.

It would also be fascinating to watch how the heads of some of the regional empires, who were dreaming of being the consensus candidate or playing kingmaker in the event of a third front cobbling up majority in 2019, will recalibrate their ambitions and strategy.

It will be a psychologists delight to study how these results affect Arvind Kejriwal , who was already behaving as a shadow Prime Minister.

However, what can be said for sure is, unless bitten by an overwhelming urge for self-destruction, no party will ally with Congress as an equal partner at least as long as Rahul Gandhi is at the helm.

These elections would have also have broken the reverie of those who were romanticising about the entry of Priyanka Vadra into politics. Her brief guest appearance in the Gandhi pocket boroughs of Amethi and Rae Bareli would have made her fans realise she is at best a Goddess with feet of clay. And, if one were to accept her party seniors’ claims that she had played a pivotal role in managing the war-room for UP, it sadly shows that she is no better than her brother in shaping political strategy.

On the other hand Captain Amarinder Singh has proven that the Dynasty may be Dead (or dying) but long lives the Royalty. One need not belabour the point that Congress could never have won Punjab without him. Whether other minor royals in the Congress, like Jyotiraditya Scindia, will take a cue from him only time can tell.

Finally, it can be said that manufactured controversies can create social media stir and get a few stray headlines in the inside pages of international media but leave greater India, which has many more existential issues to cope with, untouched.

The left-liberal media and intelligentsia should accept this and desist from making themselves even more irrelevant by opposing every move of the government for the heck of it.

Similarly, smart quips and sound-bytes may sound nice in TV studios media and get pats in the crony circuit, but do not cut ice with the voters.

At the end of the day, if the arguments are not substantive, Patillas are just empty vessels that make noise, which has little use for Mrs Obama or even a humble desi homemaker.

WILL AKHILESH BE BOLD ENOUGH TO BREAK FREE?

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Article first published in +ABPLIVE Click here to read

The lay voter in Uttar Pradesh is flummoxed by the recent developments in the Samajwadi Party. The Yadav Parivar drama has all the elements of a feudal fight and struggle for control in a family-owned enterprise.

First, they are at a loss to figure out where it will all end. Will a settlement and truce be worked out in the larger interest of the family after a good deal of brinkmanship? Or are the cracks too deep to be repaired in a hurry?

While some subscribe to the theory of an elaborate drama (or “Nura Kushti”) being played out in several acts, others are speculating on possible scenarios of Akhilesh Yadav breaking free and returning with the support of the Congress or aligning with the BJP.

Second, what will be the political fallout of these differences? Will a chunk of the Samajwadi Party’s traditional Muslim vote-bank move away to the BSP to give Mayawati an edge?

With the strong possibility of a February election being announced immediately after Diwali, these are questions dominating chai and paan shop conversations in Lucknow.

Simple arithmetic would tend to indicate any division in the Muslim votes will go to the BJP’s advantage. Adding to that the spike in nationalist sentiments after the “surgical strikes” and the soft revival of Ayodhya, one is able to explain the BJP’s improved score in the latest opinion polls.
But electoral reality is seldom so straightforward and in Uttar Pradesh the triggers of mood swing can be many between now and February to change the equations. Far too much is at stake for any party to allow another a walk-over.

In all this the most interesting phenomenon is the evolution of AkhileshYadav as a leader in his own right coming out of his father’s shadow. When Akhilesh was anointed Chief Minister five years ago, people thought it to be another dynastic succession. But pretty soon Mulayam Songh Yadav made it clear that he was nowhere close to retiring to “Vanaprastha” or playing the role of Bhishma.
At the same time, Akhilesh asserted his mind to show that he was no proxy or puppet of his father. Almost from the word go the dynamic tension between father and son surfaced for all to see. There were occasional flashpoint in the equation which were contained even if they continued to simmer underneath.

Akhilesh started on a slightly disappointing note. He was unable to at once live up to the promise he had shown as an educated young politician of the next generation. There was a visible slide in law and order and development did not take off as expected. People feared a return to the old unruly Samajwadi era. Then came the setback of the 2014 Lok Sabha election and signs of anti-incumbency began to show.

Akhilesh was smart to pick up the signals early and in 2015 he shifted gear to speed up visible progress with his “Ummeed-o ki Pradesh” campaign. It would appear that he took the challenge manfully.

Successive by-elections showed the sheen had began to wear off the BJP and being a divided house they were yet to get the act together in Uttar Pradesh. He, therefore, began to prepare for a return on a positive mandate based on performance and delivery.

However, the hard-core and the pragmatic elements were not so convinced about Akhilesh’s strategy. In a way, it was a “no win” situation for them. If Akhilesh came out on top on the sheer strength of his self-built charisma, it would mean further marginalisation of the old guard. If he lost, that might put them in the wilderness for a long time to come.

With the almost certain polarisation of the Hindu votes in favour of the BJP (along with some Shia and OBC support) Mulayam could not afford to splinter his core base of Muslims and Yadavs. That would be an irrecoverable loss. Besides, both the manpower and the resources to fight the election are still controlled by the veterans like Shivpal Yadav. So, there is no way he can afford to alienate them.

The choice before Akhilesh is stark: Whether to accept his earlier position of being the “face” of the Samajwadi Party and continue in a relation of uneasy calm with the patriarch and the uncle. If he settles for that the threat of the younger Yuvraj being propped up to dethrone him will continue to haunt him.

The alternative is the bold and honourable option of setting out on his own and consolidating his personal political equity for the longer run, even if it means biding his time in the opposition for one term. He has age on his side to take that route. It would be a pity, both for Uttar Pradesh and Indian politics, if he does not.

Tags: #akhilesh yadav #BJP #Congress #mulayam singh yadav s#amajwadi party #shivpal yadav #uttar pradesh