Post UP 2017: "Bihar Model" is outdated; Opposition must find a new template

Article first published in @abplive.in  (Photo courtesy PTI via ABPNews)



It has been a week since the Assembly election results that stunned the nation came out. Politicians and media were shocked by the now seemingly unstoppable rise of Prime Minister Narendra Modi. While most people are still trying to gather their wits to formulate a response to the stupendous victory of the BJP, the discourse has been dominated by theories on the future of the Congress and Rahul Gandhi.

No doubt there has been discussion on the fate of the major losers, namely the Samajwadi Party, BSP and AAP. But, not much attention has been paid to the reactions of other regional leaders and what this mandate means for them.


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Watch out for Devendra Fadnavis, BJP's gen-next leader

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This article was first published in +ABPLIVE

To read other published articles on politics by Sandip Ghose Click Here. His curated Blog: Right Angle has now shifted to www.sandipghose.com

Just when two forty-something scions of political dynasties are tripping over each other to promote themselves as youth icons, BJP has quietly gifted the country its own gen-next leader in Devendra Fadnavis.

Like in Uttar Pradesh now, if one recalls, the BJP had gone to polls in Maharashtra without a Chief Ministerial face. Even then, the strategy was a matter of intense debate and discussion. It was only towards the last lap of his campaigning, in Nagpur, that Narendra Modi had dropped a broad hint about Fadnavis being one of the probable names.

In fact, the triumvirate of Fadnavis, Khattar and Raghubar Das, all anointed as Chief Ministers within a gap of a few weeks towards the end of 2014, set some kind of a trend. They were all relatively unknown faces and somewhat surprise choices defying normal caste and region equations.
Of them, Fadnavis was more of an exception than others. Not only was Fadnavis younger than the rest, but he also did not have a strong constituency of his own to write home about. In a state like Maharashtra that boasts of being the commercial epicentre of the country money is a key determinant of political relevance. Therefore, even a first time young MLA like Pankaja Munde harboured ambition of becoming CM purely on the strength of inheriting her powerful father’s legacy. But, Fadnavis came from a modest background with a clean image and reputation of a sincere and dedicated ​party ​ worker. In some ways, he was a symbol of the industrious, educated, middle class Marathi ‘mulga’.

Putting Fadnavis at the helm in a large and complex state like Maharashtra was a huge gamble of Narendra Modi. His challenge was not only tackling a demanding and bickering partner like Shiv Sena but also managing heavy weights within his own party, which called for extra-ordinary maturity. Even though out of power and reduced almost to stubble, NCP and Congress in certain boroughs still remained forces to be reckoned with. It must be said to his credit that, Fadnavis navigated through the pitfalls and minefields with dexterity that is rare for a debutant.

One had observed signs of Fadnavis’ deft political management in the few by elections and local body polls over the last two years, but the recent BMC and Municipality Polls were undoubtedly his baptism by fire. While the BJP’s sweep of the rest of Maharashtra was less of a surprise for many, barring perhaps the traditional NCP stronghold of Pune, Pimpri-Chichwad, it was Mumbai that left everyone awestruck. It was truly a moment of Fadnavis coming of age.

But, if the results were stunning, the biggest statement of Fadnavis’ ascending stature was his magnanimous declaration of not contesting the mayoral position and offering outside support to Shiv Sena in forming the Brihan-Mumbai Municipal Council. At one stroke, he shed his “come lately” status to steal Uddhav Thackeray’s thunder and place himself on a higher pedestal. It was an unequivocal announcement that henceforth, Shiv Sena and other political parties have to deal with him on his own right and not as a surrogate of Modi and Amit Shah. The same message would have surely gone home also to his own senior colleagues and peers in the state BJP.

Maharashtra on a platter, just before the last lap of U P Elections, was the best return gift that Devendra Fadnavis could have given Narendra Modi for choosing him as the Chief Minister. But, in living up to the confidence reposed in him by​ ​ ​ Modi-Shah, Devendra Fadnavis has also started the generational shift in BJP that is required to reinvent the party and make it future ready.
This is a strong signal for other regional veterans who may have started taking their positions for granted, many of whom should start planning either for early superannuation or being bumped up to lofty but unimportant positions at the centre. In the event of BJP winning in Uttar Pradesh, which many are willing to bet upon today, it can be expected with reasonable certainty that Modi-Shah will spring another fresh face.

And, in the BJP ruled states that will go for polls in the coming two years, the incumbent Chief Ministers should not assume their indispensability. But, the challenge for Modi and Shah will be to find more like Fadnavis across the country, who will shape BJP 2.0 — that is more progressive and liberal. The young India, whom Modi has wooed so relentlessly, expects it of him. He can deliver on the promise only through a new breed of BJP leaders who shall walk the talk of governance, development and growth.

Originally published at www.abplive.in on March 5, 2017.

WILL AKHILESH BE BOLD ENOUGH TO BREAK FREE?

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Article first published in +ABPLIVE Click here to read

The lay voter in Uttar Pradesh is flummoxed by the recent developments in the Samajwadi Party. The Yadav Parivar drama has all the elements of a feudal fight and struggle for control in a family-owned enterprise.

First, they are at a loss to figure out where it will all end. Will a settlement and truce be worked out in the larger interest of the family after a good deal of brinkmanship? Or are the cracks too deep to be repaired in a hurry?

While some subscribe to the theory of an elaborate drama (or “Nura Kushti”) being played out in several acts, others are speculating on possible scenarios of Akhilesh Yadav breaking free and returning with the support of the Congress or aligning with the BJP.

Second, what will be the political fallout of these differences? Will a chunk of the Samajwadi Party’s traditional Muslim vote-bank move away to the BSP to give Mayawati an edge?

With the strong possibility of a February election being announced immediately after Diwali, these are questions dominating chai and paan shop conversations in Lucknow.

Simple arithmetic would tend to indicate any division in the Muslim votes will go to the BJP’s advantage. Adding to that the spike in nationalist sentiments after the “surgical strikes” and the soft revival of Ayodhya, one is able to explain the BJP’s improved score in the latest opinion polls.
But electoral reality is seldom so straightforward and in Uttar Pradesh the triggers of mood swing can be many between now and February to change the equations. Far too much is at stake for any party to allow another a walk-over.

In all this the most interesting phenomenon is the evolution of AkhileshYadav as a leader in his own right coming out of his father’s shadow. When Akhilesh was anointed Chief Minister five years ago, people thought it to be another dynastic succession. But pretty soon Mulayam Songh Yadav made it clear that he was nowhere close to retiring to “Vanaprastha” or playing the role of Bhishma.
At the same time, Akhilesh asserted his mind to show that he was no proxy or puppet of his father. Almost from the word go the dynamic tension between father and son surfaced for all to see. There were occasional flashpoint in the equation which were contained even if they continued to simmer underneath.

Akhilesh started on a slightly disappointing note. He was unable to at once live up to the promise he had shown as an educated young politician of the next generation. There was a visible slide in law and order and development did not take off as expected. People feared a return to the old unruly Samajwadi era. Then came the setback of the 2014 Lok Sabha election and signs of anti-incumbency began to show.

Akhilesh was smart to pick up the signals early and in 2015 he shifted gear to speed up visible progress with his “Ummeed-o ki Pradesh” campaign. It would appear that he took the challenge manfully.

Successive by-elections showed the sheen had began to wear off the BJP and being a divided house they were yet to get the act together in Uttar Pradesh. He, therefore, began to prepare for a return on a positive mandate based on performance and delivery.

However, the hard-core and the pragmatic elements were not so convinced about Akhilesh’s strategy. In a way, it was a “no win” situation for them. If Akhilesh came out on top on the sheer strength of his self-built charisma, it would mean further marginalisation of the old guard. If he lost, that might put them in the wilderness for a long time to come.

With the almost certain polarisation of the Hindu votes in favour of the BJP (along with some Shia and OBC support) Mulayam could not afford to splinter his core base of Muslims and Yadavs. That would be an irrecoverable loss. Besides, both the manpower and the resources to fight the election are still controlled by the veterans like Shivpal Yadav. So, there is no way he can afford to alienate them.

The choice before Akhilesh is stark: Whether to accept his earlier position of being the “face” of the Samajwadi Party and continue in a relation of uneasy calm with the patriarch and the uncle. If he settles for that the threat of the younger Yuvraj being propped up to dethrone him will continue to haunt him.

The alternative is the bold and honourable option of setting out on his own and consolidating his personal political equity for the longer run, even if it means biding his time in the opposition for one term. He has age on his side to take that route. It would be a pity, both for Uttar Pradesh and Indian politics, if he does not.

Tags: #akhilesh yadav #BJP #Congress #mulayam singh yadav s#amajwadi party #shivpal yadav #uttar pradesh

It's now The Rest Vs BJP everywhere

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Article first published in +ABP NEWS Click here to read

On arrival at Patna Airport on Friday, the notice of prohibition in the State at the entrance of the baggage claim area was a stark reminder – not of the day of abstinence lying ahead, but the reports of the Gopalgunj hooch tragedy arrests that were in the morning papers. There have been more than 30 reported deaths by illicit liquor since declaration of prohibition in April. In the light of this news, Lalu Prasad Yadav’s advice to drink toddy did not sound appealing or amusing at all.

After a few initial misadventures that invited exemplary consequences (like some well known businessmen arrested from a leading hotel in town where they had checked in for a private tippling session) the city gentry has largely reconciled to the reality of a long dry spell at home. But, what seems to bother them more are these incidents, which they see as symptoms of underworld resurgence in the State, where law and order is on a visible slide with political killings, shootouts, kidnapping and rape making a rapid comeback.

Oddly, among the people I met, mostly from the business community coming from upcountry towns and the rural belt, one sensed more a spirit of sad surrender to their fate rather than angst on the Government or any political party. The spirit was one of “yeh toh hona hi tha” (it had to happen). They blamed the situation on circumstances, saying it was a product of an alliance of disparate ideologies with the sole purpose of keeping the BJP out of power. It is the same motivation that will keep JDU, RJD and Congress together till 2019 despite their inner conflicts and contradictions. No one I came across expected a disintegration of the Government even if it continued to under-deliver on governance.

How would that manifest in BJP’s prospects in 2019? Much would depend, of course, on how “Brand Modi” fares in the second half of his term. If his ratings continue to remain high, Biharis may be inclined to vote very differently from how they did in the Assembly election, overriding caste equations. That is when the role of local dons and warlords will become critical. With Nitish Kumar making no secret of his ambition to shift court from Pataliputra to Indraprastha, it is doubtful whether his administration can come down too heavily on them as they had done during his first term.

Coming to Awadh, driving down from the new Chaudhary Charan Singh Airport (swanky in comparison to Patna’s modest Jai Prakash Narayan Hawai Adda) one cannot miss the election billboards and poll-kiosks already heralding the elections. Considering the polls are still at least six months away, one may think the political parties are peaking too early.

The most visible are of course Mayawati’s BSP (who have declared majority of their candidates) and Samajwadi Party. While the BSP hoardings prominently feature their supreme leader with the local candidate, Shivpal Yadav vies for space with Mulayam and Akhilesh Yadav in Samajwadi Party signage. Congress too is seeking its share of voice with Sheila Dikshit’s photo tucked below the foursome of Sonia Gandhi, Rahul Gandhi, Raj Babbar and Ghulam Nabi Azad. Significantly, Priyanka is so far absent in the deck.

Compared to the other three parties — BSP, SP and Congress — BJP’s visibility is practically nil. One can attribute it to two or three reasons. First, it is yet to finalise the CM face of the party. Second, it could be that it is keeping the powder dry for later use. Third, may be it is waiting for the dust to settle down after the Dalit controversy. Till now, BJP is making more news for defections from the BSP to its fold.

One common thread running through the three campaigns (of BSP, SP, Congress) is all have an eye on the Muslim vote. Among them, Mayawati has replaced a large number of her “upper caste” candidates with Muslim faces, hoping to dent into Mulayam’s stronghold. Congress has tried to add a further twist by ‘importing’ the “Brahmin Bahu”  Sheila Dixit, which many people scoff at as a declaration of political ‘bankruptcy’.

What this connotes clearly is that as in Bihar, BJP is also the common “Enemy No 1” in Uttar Pradesh.  Even three months ago, people were unwilling to bet on the BJP. Now they feel BJP’s prospects have perceptively improved. What has shifted the needle is the likely division of the Samajwadi Party’s Muslim base in favour BSP and at some places even the Congress.

This will not only result in greater consolidation of the upper caste vote but also create cracks in the core constituencies of BSP and SP for a number of reasons. First, voters are beginning to see through and become wary of the number games of caste and community in which they feel “used”. Second, there seems to be a fatigue in five-year cyclical rule of SP and BSP. This could go in favour of SP too, especially given Akhilesh’s publicity over drive on the performance of his Government – claiming transformation of ‘Uttar Pradesh’ to “Umeed O Ki Pradesh” – but some of it could accrue to BJP as well with appreciation in Narendra Modi’s political stock in coming months.

But, six months is a long time in politics and much can and will change in the coming days. A crucial decision point will be the declaration of BJP’s CM candidate, if and when they chose to go public with a name. But, there are also many surprise elements– such as flash points among Dalits or minorities – that can dramatically change the course of the match in its slog overs. Though it is still wishful thinking that a section of the Muslim vote will switch to BJP in the bargain.

Finally, in Jaipur one senses a clear change in mood of BJP from incipient despondency to renewed determination. The party has recognised the challenges of incumbency and decided to take it head on going forward. There are enough indications of Nagpur weighing in favour of the current leadership, starting with mega RSS national meets held few months back in Nagaur and to frequent visits of Nitin Gadkari to the State.

In contrast, Congress has so far been banking upon the disenchantment with Vasundhara Raje’s second term that has earned it some wins in recent elections of civic bodies and panchayats. But it still does not have much of on-ground traction to speak of. Finally, there will, as usual, be the question mark on who will lead the charge from the front – the gen next Sachin Pilot or an Ashok Gehlot called back from retirement, like Sheila Dikshit in UP, which will keep it a divided house.

Whether they win or lose, it is now decidedly BJP versus the rest across all these States. Prohibition may or may not last beyond three years in Bihar but BJP is in for the long haul and no one can wish them away in a hurry.

Do even Kashmiris know what they want ?

Why is Congress and Left Lib intlectual and media outraging most Kashmir?

Atrticle first published +ABP NEWS  Click here to read 

A Kashmiri family walks past paramilitary troopers standing guard during a curfew, in downtown Srinagar on July 15, 2016. PIC/AFP. (courtesy +ABP NEWS 

Resurfacing after his most recent – now famous and frequent – R&R break, when Rahul Gandhi thundered -“Lack of foresight & poor management has led to the escalation of violence in Kashmir” – a witty Twitter buddy quipped: “Is he referring to Nehru?”

 It is actually ironical that, this statement could well be applied to any politician dealing with Kashmir – in the last 70 years. No doubt Jawaharlal Nehru made a massive political gaffe – that even the Nehru-Gandhi family and their apologists will find difficult to contest — on the referendum proposal.

 But, looking at it counter-factually – would things have been any different in Jammu & Kashmir today if he had not capitulated then? Arguably, not.

 But, a lot can be said and questioned about the handling of Jammu & Kashmir by successive Governments since Independence. It may be true that, without the shadow of the referendum faux pas, India could have been less apologetic or defensive in its Kashmir strategy. But, only so.

 If it were Pakistan’s state policy to keep the Kashmir issue on the boil as an eternal bone of contention with India, it would not have relented on strategy just for the lack of a purported UN Resolution.

Equally, professional jihadists – whether sponsored from across the border or sons of the soil – would not have stayed idle waiting for the earlier editions of promised “acche din” to arrive.

There is little reason to believe that, in the absence of insurgency and internal strife, Jammu & Kashmir would have developed at a faster clip than the rest of India since Independence. Therefore, the much-flogged justification of separatism, unfulfilled ‘aspirations’ of Kashmiri youth, would have still been there either way.

 In trying to tackle a seemingly insurmountable problem with knee-jerk, short sighted and, at times, ill-conceived solutions, the Indian state has progressively complicated the situation in Kashmir Valley. In the process, it has also created huge cesspools of vested interests not just in political circles but an entire ecosystem that thrives on “Kashmir war chests” on both sides of the LoC.

Although no real industrial development took place in Kashmir Valley, several ‘soft-skill’ enterprises flourished. These range from NGOs to media and, so-called, Track 2 “Kashmir Experts” (or call them the neo-KPs, Kashmiri ‘Pundits’ of a different kind) comprising politicians, journalists, retired bureaucrats, diplomats on sinecure, hibernating intelligence sleuths and even former Generals. They are like quacks to those patients with psychosomatic ailments keep running to.

Finally, there are the touts, brokers and middlemen coming in all forms and hues.

With each passing day these interest groups are growing deeper and wider roots. In trying to counter them, new ones are created and that becomes a self-perpetuating cycle.

The old Dogra Royalty may be on the wane but new political dynasties have emerged who want to rule Jammu & Kashmir —  keeping their families and partners safely ensconced in Delhi or London. But, obviously the rewards of power are far too lucrative for them not to answer the call of the valley.

Against this backdrop, the BJP is the only national political party that has an ideological position on Jammu & Kashmir rather than just a political one. Retaining Jammu & Kashmir as an integral part of India for the BJP is part of its belief system – for which their leader Syama Prasad Mookerjee – the founder of the Bharatiya Jana Sangh — laid down his life.

The BJP and RSS are committed to the idea of Jammu & Kashmir being integral to India, which is not negotiable as far as they are concerned.

But, for Congress and others it is more a matter of political compulsion or geostrategic imperative. One may recall – from time to time – the Congress has in the past tried to soft-pedal a “let go” policy on Kashmir, especially through friendly journalists.

That makes the task of Narendra Modi’s Government all the more unenviable. Any signs of a pragmatic pact with a “Kashmiri” party like PDP immediately draws flak from the BJP’s core constituency of Jammu Hindus and Kashmiri Pandits.

On the other hand, the slightest offensive against militants immediately has the entire world – most notably the Lutyens’s Liberals — coming down upon them like a cloudburst in Srinagar and New Delhi.

One does not recall so much outrage on the decades of military action in the valley as over firing pellet guns in Srinagar (not that the former justifies the latter). The protests after Hizbul Mujahideen Commander Burhan Wani’s death received more prime time and front-page coverage in Indian media than what one can remember about the anti-Kashmiri Pandit pogrom in the valley in the 1980s.

Interestingly, if one cares to note, it is the Congress, the Left and their friends in the media who have been most vocal in attacking the Central Government on Kashmir. In comparison, one has not heard the voices of other political parties, especially the regional biggies at all. Is there a story in that too?

With BJP-PDP 2.0 in power – with the more strident Mehbooba Mufti following a protracted courtship – Jammu & Kashmir watchers assumed that the BJP had put on anklets that would deter New Delhi from taking a hard line against militants.

Suddenly realisation seems to have dawned that power sharing does not necessarily mean going soft on separatists. The Prime Minister’s silence and even Mehbooba’s muted reaction to the events of past week has further brought home this message. This has rattled the self-appointed conscience keepers of the Kashmiri cause.

The question one is inclined to ask these “neo KPs” is: can the Kashmiris be so counter-intuitive to believe that their lot would be better either under independent self-rule or in Pakistan?

How many of their youth who are being sacrificed in the self-styled jihad for ‘Azadi’ really understand what it entails for them. If unfulfilled ‘aspiration’ is really the cause for their taking up arms, as some intellectuals suggest, do they think their fellow Kashmiris across the border are any better off?

If the leaders and benefactors were really serious about their welfare and future of Kashmiris, they would negotiate with the Central Government on a specific agenda for development, health-care, skill-building and employment generation, rather than lead them to a mirage of jannat.

Sadly, ordinary Kashmiris do not seem to know what they really want.

Dateline Indore: Travel through the land of saffron poppies

Article first published in +ABPLIVE Click here

The tract from Chittaurgarh in Rajasthan to the adjoining districts of Neemuch and Mandsaur in the Malwa region of Madhya Pradesh is remarkably prosperous. These are few areas in the country that have ‘licensed’ cultivation of poppy. After handing over the contracted quantities to the state there is enough ‘extras’ and left-over by products (like Poshto and Doda) to be traded under the benevolent eyes of a deity – Sanwariya Seth – considered as a ‘business partner’ by the locals. Needless to add, the supplementary income exceeds the official earnings by multiples. So, Digvijaya Singh was being clever by half when he dared Shivraj Singh Chauhan to ban poppy cultivation in Madhya Pradesh.

Business here is generally insulated from economic downturns unless, of course, the crop is severely affected. Opiates are in demand both in times of depression and boom – a local associate with interest in real estate and jewellery enlightens me. Unlike neighbouring Rajasthan where  a certain degree of dissonance is palpable, Malwa is still soaked in saffron. On a visible high after the resounding success of the recent Ujjain Simhastha Kumbh, he is not worried about another term for BJP in the state or a second innings for Modi. But, as a businessman his critique of Modi Sarkar is on approach and strategy.

Modi-ji had promised to get “Kala-Dhan” from abroad – but instead his government seems more concerned about unearthing black money of the people who voted for BJP. He was upset at the real-estate business being in the doldrums stuck with high inventory and the counter-productive excise duty imposed on jewellery. The fear of the taxman had led to the flight of free-cash – the life-blood of builders . For jewellery – the one-percent tax is not an issue – but that it would force jewelers to declare transactions in “white” would be a major nuisance for the trade. He blamed such ‘impractical’ decisions on bureaucrats – whom he felt were alive to the difficulties of large industrialists but had little understanding of the problems of small businessmen and traders. A subtle replay, as it were, of the ‘suit-boot’ refrain – but the general angst at the elusive “miracles” that one saw a year ago had distinctly dissipated.

Yet – he is hopeful of the future. After three consecutive bad seasons the Rabi crops were healthy. A bumper Soya Bean harvest was in the offing. Now with predictions of a good monsoon the mood in the rural economy is looking up. Infrastructure projects are showing signs of traction and with the elections on the horizon – the state government is beginning to loosen its purse strings. Overall – the realization was beginning to set in that – while the dream of ‘Acche Din’ may have been a hyperbole – things could have been much worse and the government had managed the economy pretty well under the circumstances.

Now, cut to Indore. Meet a bunch of saffron-ites from the trading community of the city and nearby towns.  Though there was no windfall for the ‘faithful’, they can sense a certain stability and predictability in the business environment. Even though it has been a long time since Congress last ruled the state – the memories of mismanagement and corruption are yet to heal and the factional infighting between the major and minor royalties does not inspire confidence for a resurrection any time soon.

I tease them about the prices of tomatoes. That we can think of having tomatoes in summer is itself a sign of changing times, they retort. Indians are accustomed to cyclical shortages and inflation is part of progress and the people they feel are convinced about the sincerity of the government. If these crises were to happen due to “ghotala” (corruption), reckless action or negligence there would be backlash. Now they know it has happened despite the best efforts of the central government. So no one is blaming Modi.

Everyone understands, the key is growth of the economy and as long as that is ensured everything else will quietly fall in place. Meanwhile, the benefits of all the schemes launched by the Prime Minister – be it Jan Dhan Yojana or Crop Insurance will start yielding dividends and reduce dependence on doles.

Again I try to bait them on BJP’s uncertain prospects in Punjab and possible set back in Rajasthan. As they invoke the now familiar logic of the changing dynamics between state and central elections. I argue why would the same not apply to Rahul Gandhi or Kejriwal – but it only invites laughter of derision. The ‘Bhakts’ if you insist on calling them so  are convinced Modi and Amit Shah are working to a plan and 2019 will see an encore of the “Modi Magic”.  Citing Modi’s towering ratings in all recent opinion polls the say “the Man is the Message” and that is why Modi cuts through the layers and communicates directly with the masses.

And, just then Boom!! Narendra Modi comes on air to answer everything the nation wanted to know but were afraid to ask.

Political Dynasties are here to stay

Political Dynasties: India's Destiny

Article first published in +ABPLIVE click here to read

On the way to the Calcutta airport – one saw huge billboards with solus pictures of Mamata Banerjee’s cherubic nephew Abhishekh – hailing him as “Man of the Match”. It was a special day – when the city’s “Red Road” – Calcutta’s equivalent of the Rajpath – was wrapped in blue carpet for the grand “oath-taking” ceremony of Banerjee’s “Ma, Maati, Manush” (people’s) Sarkar. Ironically, as the billboards announced, it also became the formal “coming-out” day of a new political dynasty.

Dynasties are not new in Indian politics or, indeed – as has been written at length to justify them – the world over. The favourite examples cited are, of course, the Kennedy and Bush families. Parallels are often also drawn with Bollywood clans like the Kapoors, just as the large business families of Birlas, Jains and the Ambanis. Various socio-psychological explanations are offered ranging from our feudal history to Darwinian principles of evolutionary anthropology. Probably, all the hypotheses are correct in parts. But, there is an essential difference about third-world political dynasties.

The Kennedys and Bushes were inheritors of a legacy. Their family reputation and clout give them a head start in the political arena. But, thereafter – they had to all fend for themselves. The same is true for actors, cricketers or people in other professions like doctors or lawyers. They get breaks or early mover advantage, but can survive in a cruel competitive world only if they have the mettle. History is replete with instances where the sons and daughters of famous parents failed to make it good because they did not possess the requisite talent. But, in politics the overriding factor that is often glossed over lies in economics.

I recall in the late nineties – the son of a former ailing politician gave up his million-dollar salary job in a top US investment bank and returned to India – ostensibly to be with his father in his last days. A noble act by any standard I thought in my naiveté – until a bureaucrat friend decided to educate me. The money he would have earned as a banker in his entire lifetime – would not even be a speck in the fortune his father had accumulated as a politician. If he was not around all the unaccounted wealth kept with ‘benami’ holders would vaporize in no time along with the secret numbers of Swiss bank accounts. That explains how the arty son of an iconic leader from an eastern state gave up the high life abroad reluctantly returned home to keep alive the party formed by his father. Similarly – the homemaker daughter of one of the richest politician in the country being drafted back to India as the heiress in waiting.

In contrast, think of the sons and grandsons of another Prime Minister – Lal Bahadur Shastri – whose sons and grandsons despite being qualified and talented did not make beyond the “also ran” in their respective parties – as they had only the grandfather’s surname to fall back upon. Examples abound of ‘netas’ who died prematurely without anointing a political heir. Their fortunes vanished in no time with the family reduced to near penury. Conversely, we have others – who were, probably, better organized in managing their finances – whose son or daughter seamlessly moved into their father’s shoes at once staking claim to their legacy in the form of a berth in the ministry (in some cases even for the Chief Minister’s chair) notwithstanding their lack of political experience and standing in the party. Three recent examples that immediately come to mind are coincidentally all from Maharashtra – though the phenomenon is by no means restricted to that “great” state alone.

Amassing a war chest has become an imperative for political survival. Down South a Lok Sabha incumbent is believed to spend anything between Rupees ten to thirty crores in each election. The bill can be a bit lower in states on the other side of the Vindhyas – but still must be a substantial sum. Then there is the on-going cost of nurturing a constituency. But, for a “neta” it is not a matter of just one constituency. To be a force to reckon with in the system he needs to have a bunch of MLAs and MPs in his/her kitty. For regional leaders the stakes are much higher – with the flock threatening to walk over the fence every other day.

However, to “own” a party requires serious money. By today’s standards the cost of fighting a state election run into several thousand crores – as we saw during the recent Tamil Nadu polls –when the two main parties were engaged in an obscene war of distributing freebies to the voters. Such extravagance may not have caught on as yet in the less affluent states like West Bengal, Assam or Odisha – but even there to simply mobilise ground support cost the parties a few hundred crores. While the cost of coming to and staying in power is high – the money required to stay afloat when out of power is no less. Unless those relegated to the opposition are able to maintain viable presence on the ground – they will in no time become irrelevant losing cadres as well as grass-root organisation. Organising a modest rally for a visiting national leader run not just into lakhs but crores.

The humongous resources required not just coming to power but also to stay in power and survive during years of exile makes any suggestion of “state-funding” of elections an impractical non-starter. Even if the Parliament and Election Commission were to come up with a formula for underwriting campaign cost – it will at best be pocket change for candidates. It may not be wrong to say – the rules changed in the early seventies during Indira Gandhi’s tenure, which ushered in the era of “privatization” of political parties. Abolition of privy purse brought many royals into politics – who soon realized that their corpus of inherited wealth would not last them beyond a couple of seasons and were quick to learn the game. This explains the conundrum of why the rich and blue-blooded also indulge in corruption – something that flummoxes innocent commoners.

The rise in sub-nationalism has led to the creation of strong regional parties practicing identity politics. As that happens – dynasty becomes imperative because without an official inheritor the parties will disintegrate and the family fortunes vanish without trace.

Therein hangs the tale of sons, daughters, sons-in-law and the odd nephew in Indian politics. Till there are radical reforms of the electoral system (not just state funding) the Dynasties are here to stay and their numbers will grow over time.

When Left turns Right

Modi and BJP aren't going away in a hurry

Article first published in +Swarajya click here to read

Since the state assembly results were out last Thursday (May 19th) – two sets of views are dominating the op-ed space in print. The first – media pundits across board are finding merit in Amit Shah – Narendra Modi’s strategy for creeping expansion of BJP’s footprint to hitherto unconquered geographies. The second lot — are a series of very convoluted justification of how they were so widely off the mark in their prediction of the West Bengal results. From – a position of taking the outcome for granted – as a cakewalk for Mamata – their hopes had soared for the Left-Congress “Jot” (alliance) gathering traction as the polls progressed. 

The first is more interesting. It took just one election – in which BJP won a single state and in the others managed to only increase its vote share – to change the perspective of the media worthies. Simultaneously, those who till recently were all praise for the new improved Rahul Gandhi 2.0 – post his mysterious sabbatical of last summer – sank into a crisis of confidence apprehensive of India, indeed, becoming #CongressMuktBharat if Rahul were to take full-time charge of the party.

What’s common between the two thesis is – after grudgingly swallowing the outcome – the commentators have changed tack and are freely dispensing advice to both Modi and Mamata on how to make the most of a good verdict. One would have thought by now they would know that these two self made leaders – seldom listen to the counsel of others. But, guess, they feel it is worth a try – if for nothing else - to build bridges and mend fences as neither Modi nor Mamata are likely to go away in a hurry.

What all this still doesn’t explain though – is the abrupt jettisoning of media’s darling — Rahul Gandhi, like the proverbial baby with the bathwater. Papers and channels that were vehemently opposed to Modi and BJP are writing first drafts of obituaries anticipating the imminent decimiation of the grand-old party (in its current form). While some are joining the chorus of “Priyanka lao, Congress Bachao” — others are decrying the formula of “more dynasty” to make up for the talent-deficit in the current generation of the family. The larger eco-system created by the Congress — seem to be more concerned about the future of Congress than, perhaps, Congressmen themselves.

No matter what the political soothsayers have to say about the proverbial phoenix rising from the ashes etc — in their heart they know Congress has not only lost its capacity to be the party in power at the centre but its viability as an alliance partner is also under question. Its often cited that BJP itself had been reduced to a party of two members in Parliament and made a determined comeback. Why can’t Congress repeat such an act ? Or for that matter — the return of Lalu’s RJD in #Bihar. 

The inherent fallacy in this wishful thinking is easy to explain. BJPs turn-around was achieved not by any one man or family — it had the entire organisation of the party and the RSS working for its revival. Lalu’s rehabilitation was achieved by the unstinted backing of his community — caste base, who felt one of their own had been victimised — in the power war of the political elite. Unfortunately, Rahul Gandhi evokes no such emotional surplus among Congress’ core constituents. 

Thus the prospects of BJP occupying the central space vacated by the Congress and the motley crowd of regional warlords jostling against it — is not a scenario that excites the media mandarins. But, these elections have brought home a few more sharp realisations that are even more unsettling for the Congress nurtured ecosystem — 

1. Even without winning elections BJP can emerge as a force to reckon with nationally by sheer increase in Vote Share; 
2. If the new trend of the electorate voting decisively in state elections based on local issues and sub-national lines, it is likely they will vote in the Lok Sabha elections keeping the larger national picture in mind;
3. Narendra Modi still remains the most popular and credible National Leader. Therefore, no matter which way some of the forthcoming state polls (Uttar Pradesh, Rajasthan etc) might go — and people may yet trust Modi with another term as Prime Minister.

So, it is not the Congress or Rahul Gandhi but Narendra Modi and BJP who can’t be written off in a hurry.

The 'Poriborton' of Mamata Banerjee

The reinvention of Mamata Banerjee - from Street-fighter to CM 

Article first published in +Mint Click on this to read

A very well connected top Bengali political journalist had narrated this to me. He went to see Pranab Mukherjee – then a full-time politician – before the 2011 West Bengal elections. As he is close to both Pranab-babu and Mamata Banerjee – the journalist took the liberty of asking Pranab Mukherjee if he thought Mamata will be able to make the transition from a mercurial fire-brand opposition leader to Chief Minister easily. It seems – Pranab-da had told him then, “why not – people grow and mature on the job and Mamata is a quick learner”.

This short conversation reveals as much about Pranab Mukherjee’s astute political instincts as Mamata Banerjee’s native political intelligence. It is this street-smartness that has brought her to a position – when she is looking almost invincible as she is seeking mandate for a second term.

Come to think of it – it is the Left which never got out of its agitation mode and refused to govern – at least for the better part of its 32 year rule. By the time they realized the mistake – Nandigram and Singur had already happened and it was far too late for any course correction. Mamata on the other hand was baptized by fire – as it were - in Jangal Mahal followed by the Hills. She tackled both with a combination of political stratagem and shrewd administrative intervention.

From day one, Mamata Banerjee has tried to provide governance while continuously learning on the job. She recalled one of the brightest – among the few remaining Bengalis in the IAS  from the centre to be her Chief Secretary and gathered around her a bunch of competent officers – a good balance of experience and (relatively young) age. Perhaps, the biggest mistake of CPIM had been to make the police and District Administration subservient to the local party bosses. In the case of Trinamool – while insisting on alignment Mamata ensured the strings of administration were tied firmly to the CM’s office.

Non-politician professionals who were drafted in to the party before the elections – were advised to focus on their respective portfolio and keep their own counsel without becoming (TV) Camera hungry – as some of them were wont to do.

This apparent tendency to concentrate power with one individual may sound familiar. But, without getting into value judgment, that’s the way Indian Democracy seems to work these days. Therefore, it would be unfair to pick on Mamata and label her as a Dictator. Sure she has an autocratic -“I know best” - streak, one can call her impetuous but not imperious like some of her female counterparts in other states.

After BJP came to power – there were apprehensions about another extended period of confrontation between the centre and the state at the cost of West Bengal’s development. But, Mamata turned it into a game of dynamic tension generally loaded in her favour. She played a carefully calibrated strategy – keeping up a façade of hostility with BJP - while flirting intermittently with the third front but maintaining a distance from Congress all along. Her class act was obviously deftly steering the TMC ship out of troubled waters in Saradha – without even a spot on her starched white cotton saree. Madan Mitra was simply a collateral casualty.

If by turning the heat off on Saradha, BJP hoped to reach a compromise with Mamata  – it was disappointed.  But, even though BJP didn’t manage to get her consent on the Land Bill, on other legislations – that had no negative political implication for her - she didn’t side with the Congress just for the sake of opposing the BJP.

How she tackled the fall-out with Mukul Roy through this interregnum can be a case–study even for more seasoned politicians. That Mukul is back burying all speculations about his joining BJP or forming his own party and now campaigning jointly with – wait, hold your breath – her nephew Abhisekh is testimony of her entering the league of Jayalalitha, Nitish and Mulayam.

For all the talk of her failing to deliver the promised “Poriborton” - a counter-factual question would put the matter to rest: . Where would West Bengal be today – if the Left was had not been thrown out? I believe this is also the primary reason why people will vote her back to power. That is not to mean she would be re-elected only on a negative vote for the lack of any alternative. Truly she is the best bet for Bengal at this juncture.

In balance, Trinamool’s five year score-card though not spectacular is not below par either. If Modi government can complain of the burden of legacy – Mamata Banerjee inherited a much bigger mess systematically created over 3 decades of non-rule and misrule.  Not only was she handed over an empty treasury but - with dying industry and trade – also no ready solution to replenish the finances of the state.

Where Mamata tied chains around her own feet is Land Policy. She has to bite this bullet sometime if West Bengal has to be brought out of the ICU. Otherwise, a hundred Resurgent Bengal jamborees and road-shows will not bring investment to the state. However, if Mamata had tried doing it in her first term – it would have been political hara-kiri like Modi realized in good time on the Land Acquisition Bill.

On “Poriborton” Mamata has tried to “change” a lot since she came to power. Equally, it is also true that there are many things she has either not been able to change or chosen not to. In trying to beat the Left in their own game – she may have had to play by their rules. It can also be argued that some of it has been only relabeling – “lumpen-rule” by another name – with only the “price-tag” of corruption going up from ‘Politburo’ administered pricing to a ‘free-market’ model decided by local ‘Dadas’. But, by and large – statistics apart, which anyway tell a good story – even anecdotally Trinamool’s achievements are better than the average of other states in the last few years. One may question the valuation of her paintings – but at least she is not weighed in gold or garlanded with wreathe made of thousand rupee notes on her birthday.

On the communal harmony front – despite accusations of appeasement (unavoidable with a 30% minority population) - arguably West Bengal remains more peaceful than many other states. Of course, there have been sporadic incidents like Malda – where too it was quickly contained and not allowed to flare-up and spread.

Mamata Banerjee is undoubtedly the first Chief Minister of West Bengal after B C Roy who has displayed some concern for aesthetics. One can chuckle at her desire to turn Kolkata into London or scoff at the Trident Lamp posts now further embellished with white and blue LED creepers – but she is the only one, not even the urbane Communist Jyoti Basu, who has made genuine efforts at giving the city and state a visible make-over and face-lift. Her decision to shift the State Secretariat to Howrah for restoration of the historical Writers Building is a bold decision few others would have taken.

Never before has a Bengali Chief Minister tried to showcase and market the state. So be it the chic “Biswa Bangla” Boutiques selling  haute-couture Murshidabad Jamdani and Baluchari Sarees or packaging Nalen Gur in squeezable tubes, she has made a beginning. Similarly, Mango Festival in Malda or Gobinda Bhog (Rice) Utsav in Burdwan – does something to restore Bengali pride.

People can have a dig at her poetry and artistic talent or mock her   “culture” fixation and penchant for hanging out with actors, singers, painters. But, what she has done for older artists living in penury should shame her predecessors.

Ignoring controversy – felicitating the victory of a private cricket team (KKR) in IPL and in return getting its owner to be the Brand Ambassador for Bengal is typically Mamata. Bringing Lionel Messi for a friendly match in football crazy Kolkata or hosting India-Pakistan T20 cricket match after other states turned it down and getting Amitabh Bachchan to sing the National Anthem before the game may have many critics – but undeniably it does bring in a “feel good” factor among Bengalis – who had long forgotten to be happy.

Mamata may have her idiosyncrasies. But, the important point is that, she is comfortable in her skin. Therefore, she hasn’t (at least yet) felt the need to trade her trademark cotton saree for a designer Tangail and doesn’t bat an eye-lid while marching ahead in her Chappals on the banks of the Thames in London, leaving her sneaker clad minions huffing and panting behind in trying to keep pace with her.

Bad poetry or singing off-scale is a small price to pay for a leader who is sincere and displays a semblance of vision that has been missing for so long in the state.

Sandip Ghose is a roving media and marketing professional who looks at life from a right angle. Views expressed are personal and does not represent those of his employers. Twitter @SandipGhose