Do even Kashmiris know what they want ?

Why is Congress and Left Lib intlectual and media outraging most Kashmir?

Atrticle first published +ABP NEWS  Click here to read 

A Kashmiri family walks past paramilitary troopers standing guard during a curfew, in downtown Srinagar on July 15, 2016. PIC/AFP. (courtesy +ABP NEWS 

Resurfacing after his most recent – now famous and frequent – R&R break, when Rahul Gandhi thundered -“Lack of foresight & poor management has led to the escalation of violence in Kashmir” – a witty Twitter buddy quipped: “Is he referring to Nehru?”

 It is actually ironical that, this statement could well be applied to any politician dealing with Kashmir – in the last 70 years. No doubt Jawaharlal Nehru made a massive political gaffe – that even the Nehru-Gandhi family and their apologists will find difficult to contest — on the referendum proposal.

 But, looking at it counter-factually – would things have been any different in Jammu & Kashmir today if he had not capitulated then? Arguably, not.

 But, a lot can be said and questioned about the handling of Jammu & Kashmir by successive Governments since Independence. It may be true that, without the shadow of the referendum faux pas, India could have been less apologetic or defensive in its Kashmir strategy. But, only so.

 If it were Pakistan’s state policy to keep the Kashmir issue on the boil as an eternal bone of contention with India, it would not have relented on strategy just for the lack of a purported UN Resolution.

Equally, professional jihadists – whether sponsored from across the border or sons of the soil – would not have stayed idle waiting for the earlier editions of promised “acche din” to arrive.

There is little reason to believe that, in the absence of insurgency and internal strife, Jammu & Kashmir would have developed at a faster clip than the rest of India since Independence. Therefore, the much-flogged justification of separatism, unfulfilled ‘aspirations’ of Kashmiri youth, would have still been there either way.

 In trying to tackle a seemingly insurmountable problem with knee-jerk, short sighted and, at times, ill-conceived solutions, the Indian state has progressively complicated the situation in Kashmir Valley. In the process, it has also created huge cesspools of vested interests not just in political circles but an entire ecosystem that thrives on “Kashmir war chests” on both sides of the LoC.

Although no real industrial development took place in Kashmir Valley, several ‘soft-skill’ enterprises flourished. These range from NGOs to media and, so-called, Track 2 “Kashmir Experts” (or call them the neo-KPs, Kashmiri ‘Pundits’ of a different kind) comprising politicians, journalists, retired bureaucrats, diplomats on sinecure, hibernating intelligence sleuths and even former Generals. They are like quacks to those patients with psychosomatic ailments keep running to.

Finally, there are the touts, brokers and middlemen coming in all forms and hues.

With each passing day these interest groups are growing deeper and wider roots. In trying to counter them, new ones are created and that becomes a self-perpetuating cycle.

The old Dogra Royalty may be on the wane but new political dynasties have emerged who want to rule Jammu & Kashmir —  keeping their families and partners safely ensconced in Delhi or London. But, obviously the rewards of power are far too lucrative for them not to answer the call of the valley.

Against this backdrop, the BJP is the only national political party that has an ideological position on Jammu & Kashmir rather than just a political one. Retaining Jammu & Kashmir as an integral part of India for the BJP is part of its belief system – for which their leader Syama Prasad Mookerjee – the founder of the Bharatiya Jana Sangh — laid down his life.

The BJP and RSS are committed to the idea of Jammu & Kashmir being integral to India, which is not negotiable as far as they are concerned.

But, for Congress and others it is more a matter of political compulsion or geostrategic imperative. One may recall – from time to time – the Congress has in the past tried to soft-pedal a “let go” policy on Kashmir, especially through friendly journalists.

That makes the task of Narendra Modi’s Government all the more unenviable. Any signs of a pragmatic pact with a “Kashmiri” party like PDP immediately draws flak from the BJP’s core constituency of Jammu Hindus and Kashmiri Pandits.

On the other hand, the slightest offensive against militants immediately has the entire world – most notably the Lutyens’s Liberals — coming down upon them like a cloudburst in Srinagar and New Delhi.

One does not recall so much outrage on the decades of military action in the valley as over firing pellet guns in Srinagar (not that the former justifies the latter). The protests after Hizbul Mujahideen Commander Burhan Wani’s death received more prime time and front-page coverage in Indian media than what one can remember about the anti-Kashmiri Pandit pogrom in the valley in the 1980s.

Interestingly, if one cares to note, it is the Congress, the Left and their friends in the media who have been most vocal in attacking the Central Government on Kashmir. In comparison, one has not heard the voices of other political parties, especially the regional biggies at all. Is there a story in that too?

With BJP-PDP 2.0 in power – with the more strident Mehbooba Mufti following a protracted courtship – Jammu & Kashmir watchers assumed that the BJP had put on anklets that would deter New Delhi from taking a hard line against militants.

Suddenly realisation seems to have dawned that power sharing does not necessarily mean going soft on separatists. The Prime Minister’s silence and even Mehbooba’s muted reaction to the events of past week has further brought home this message. This has rattled the self-appointed conscience keepers of the Kashmiri cause.

The question one is inclined to ask these “neo KPs” is: can the Kashmiris be so counter-intuitive to believe that their lot would be better either under independent self-rule or in Pakistan?

How many of their youth who are being sacrificed in the self-styled jihad for ‘Azadi’ really understand what it entails for them. If unfulfilled ‘aspiration’ is really the cause for their taking up arms, as some intellectuals suggest, do they think their fellow Kashmiris across the border are any better off?

If the leaders and benefactors were really serious about their welfare and future of Kashmiris, they would negotiate with the Central Government on a specific agenda for development, health-care, skill-building and employment generation, rather than lead them to a mirage of jannat.

Sadly, ordinary Kashmiris do not seem to know what they really want.

Despite the negative surround-sound Modi is on track

Why BJP needs to form government in Uttarakhand and Jammu-Kashmir

Article first published in +ABPLIVE  click here to read


Even some avowed Narendra Modi supporters were surprised by BJP’s apparent desperation to form governments in Arunachal, Uttarakhand and, now, Jammu & Kashmir. While in Arunachal and Uttarakhand they seemed to be in an unseemly rush to topple incumbent regimes, in J&K they eschewed pride to put up with months of obdurate posturing by Mehbooba Mufti hoping to reach an understanding. The reason is not far to seek. After decimation in Delhi and Bihar and dim prospects of in West Bengal (Assam is still an open book) – Modi-Shah combine need to pocket as many Rajya Sabha seats as possible to get out of the parliamentary stalemate.

Travelling through Uttar Pradesh last week – though it is early days yet to make any predictions no matter what sundry ‘Mood of the Nation’ polls might have to say – it is absolutely clear that neither Samajwadi Party or Bahujan Samaj Party are going to be a push over in 2017 unlike in 2014 Lok Sabha Polls. While Mayawati and BSP are understandably banking on the anti-incumbency factor, in recent months Akhilesh Yadav has been working hard at not only retaining SP’s core-constituents but also winning back the disenchanted voters by some ‘visible’ efforts at governance and development. Prashant Kishor and Priyanka Gandhi may not work magic with Rahul Gandhi – but in an alliance Congress can fetch some incremental seats, as it had arguably done for MGB in Bihar. But, by present reckoning, Lucknow pundits don’t give BJP more than 80 seats in the Assembly – unless miracles happen between now and 2017.

The interesting phenomenon in all this is - while BJP’s stock is floundering and RSS continues to be ambivalent towards the government – Modi’s own rating remains high. Sure, people don’t rule out the possibility of a compromise choice of PM emerging (for example, Nitish Kumar) if a third “secular” front has the numbers in 2019 – but there is still no single challenger to Narendra Modi at the national level. For all the hype built around Rahul Gandhi V 2.0 – he will be at best a supporting cast if Congress is not the largest party in a coalition. And, much as Arvind Kejriwal may try to position himself as the already anointed ‘PM-in-Waiting” – no seasoned politician – like Lalu, Nitish, Pawar, Mulayam  and even Mamata - will trust him in the PM’s chair.

The silver lining in all this is – BJP is showing a new resolve not to allow the economic agenda to be stalled by Congress’ perverse obstructionism. Modi and Amit Shah know – rhetoric won’t carry them beyond 2016. The cash registers – both for business and the public have to start ringing sooner than later – if Modi is serious about winning a second term in 2019.

Many believe Budget Session 2016 will be the turning point for Modi Sarkar. For the first time it is showing signs of getting the act together in Parliament with a strategy in place. Arun Jaitley presented a non-spectacular budget but with both economics and heart at the right place – which even the opposition found difficult to critique (barring the EPF proposal that in hindsight appears was a red-herring deliberately planted to divert attention from more substantive provisions). Apart from getting the Aadhar Bill passed - arguably by procedural gamesmanship – and with other important legislations like the Real Estate Bill slipped under the radar – BJP’s floor managers are beginning to look almost savvy .

Placing the Mining and Minerals Development and Regulations Act Amendment in Lok Sabha the government has shown the will to bite the bullet on policy bugs that are tripping the economy. The acid test will, of course, be GST – but there too Arun Jaitley is exuding greater confidence than he was even a few weeks ago.

It is clear Modi is proceeding as per a plan. That the scripted “angry-acts” of Rahul Gandhi and the surround sound of ‘tolerance’ and FOS has not rattled the Prime Minister was obvious from his speech at the BJP Conclave – where he asked the members not to get distracted by “opposition propaganda” and carry the message of development (Vikas) to the masses.

Now with greater alignment between the RBI Governor and the Finance Ministry and BJP’s increased strength in Rajya Sabha reforms can go through the economy should finally get rolling, as predicted by many. The Budget signaled a significant course correction towards “Bharat”. As increased spends on MNREGA with focused and leak-proof digital disbursement through Aadhar backed Direct Cash Transfer Schemes start reaching the target population and Social Security Innovations like Jan-Dhan and Fasal Bima Yojnas begin to bear fruit – the “Acche Din” slogan may not sound like “Jumla” anymore and put fresh wind into BJP’s sail.