Watch out for Devendra Fadnavis, BJP's gen-next leader

Pic Courtesy +ABPLIVE 

This article was first published in +ABPLIVE

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Just when two forty-something scions of political dynasties are tripping over each other to promote themselves as youth icons, BJP has quietly gifted the country its own gen-next leader in Devendra Fadnavis.

Like in Uttar Pradesh now, if one recalls, the BJP had gone to polls in Maharashtra without a Chief Ministerial face. Even then, the strategy was a matter of intense debate and discussion. It was only towards the last lap of his campaigning, in Nagpur, that Narendra Modi had dropped a broad hint about Fadnavis being one of the probable names.

In fact, the triumvirate of Fadnavis, Khattar and Raghubar Das, all anointed as Chief Ministers within a gap of a few weeks towards the end of 2014, set some kind of a trend. They were all relatively unknown faces and somewhat surprise choices defying normal caste and region equations.
Of them, Fadnavis was more of an exception than others. Not only was Fadnavis younger than the rest, but he also did not have a strong constituency of his own to write home about. In a state like Maharashtra that boasts of being the commercial epicentre of the country money is a key determinant of political relevance. Therefore, even a first time young MLA like Pankaja Munde harboured ambition of becoming CM purely on the strength of inheriting her powerful father’s legacy. But, Fadnavis came from a modest background with a clean image and reputation of a sincere and dedicated ​party ​ worker. In some ways, he was a symbol of the industrious, educated, middle class Marathi ‘mulga’.

Putting Fadnavis at the helm in a large and complex state like Maharashtra was a huge gamble of Narendra Modi. His challenge was not only tackling a demanding and bickering partner like Shiv Sena but also managing heavy weights within his own party, which called for extra-ordinary maturity. Even though out of power and reduced almost to stubble, NCP and Congress in certain boroughs still remained forces to be reckoned with. It must be said to his credit that, Fadnavis navigated through the pitfalls and minefields with dexterity that is rare for a debutant.

One had observed signs of Fadnavis’ deft political management in the few by elections and local body polls over the last two years, but the recent BMC and Municipality Polls were undoubtedly his baptism by fire. While the BJP’s sweep of the rest of Maharashtra was less of a surprise for many, barring perhaps the traditional NCP stronghold of Pune, Pimpri-Chichwad, it was Mumbai that left everyone awestruck. It was truly a moment of Fadnavis coming of age.

But, if the results were stunning, the biggest statement of Fadnavis’ ascending stature was his magnanimous declaration of not contesting the mayoral position and offering outside support to Shiv Sena in forming the Brihan-Mumbai Municipal Council. At one stroke, he shed his “come lately” status to steal Uddhav Thackeray’s thunder and place himself on a higher pedestal. It was an unequivocal announcement that henceforth, Shiv Sena and other political parties have to deal with him on his own right and not as a surrogate of Modi and Amit Shah. The same message would have surely gone home also to his own senior colleagues and peers in the state BJP.

Maharashtra on a platter, just before the last lap of U P Elections, was the best return gift that Devendra Fadnavis could have given Narendra Modi for choosing him as the Chief Minister. But, in living up to the confidence reposed in him by​ ​ ​ Modi-Shah, Devendra Fadnavis has also started the generational shift in BJP that is required to reinvent the party and make it future ready.
This is a strong signal for other regional veterans who may have started taking their positions for granted, many of whom should start planning either for early superannuation or being bumped up to lofty but unimportant positions at the centre. In the event of BJP winning in Uttar Pradesh, which many are willing to bet upon today, it can be expected with reasonable certainty that Modi-Shah will spring another fresh face.

And, in the BJP ruled states that will go for polls in the coming two years, the incumbent Chief Ministers should not assume their indispensability. But, the challenge for Modi and Shah will be to find more like Fadnavis across the country, who will shape BJP 2.0 — that is more progressive and liberal. The young India, whom Modi has wooed so relentlessly, expects it of him. He can deliver on the promise only through a new breed of BJP leaders who shall walk the talk of governance, development and growth.

Originally published at www.abplive.in on March 5, 2017.

Is the Modi-Shah juggernaut losing steam?

Let’s start closer to (my) home –Kolkata.

Since Amit Shah’s Burdwan Rally on January  20^th there is visible slow down in BJP’s aggression in West Bengal.  The announcement of big names crossing over from Trinamool and Congress to BJP has  been put on indefinite hold.  Even accepting – the government in Delhi has no control over the affairs of the CBI – the investigation seems to have cooled off a little with the release of one MP and the “non-arrest” of  Mukul Roy. It is quite likely that Madan Mitra, the other minister in custody, will also be soon out on bail – taking the heat off Mamata Banerjee.  The BJP has also been studiously cautious in associating with Roy or responding to his overtures.

Although the TMC MP’s have been belligerent in Parliament, BJP’s response to their shenanigans  have been somewhat muted with at least one instance of Modi trying to reach out to the Trinamool MPs during his reply to the debate on the President’s Address in Rajya Sabha.  The Mamata – Modi meeting that followed – despite the stiff body-language  caught on camera – was also significant. It’s possible that –  strategy has been recalibrated keeping in mind the challenges of the Budget Session – with several key legislations on the anvil.  But, it also can’t be ruled out that the moderation is also an outcome of a more realistic assessment of BJP’s immediate prospects in West Bengal after the recent Lok-Sabha and Assembly By-polls  (further corroborated by Opinion Polls for the forthcoming Kolkata Municipality Elections – where BJP is finding it difficult to even mobilise candidates). Now one hears PM  Modi may be visiting Kolkata soon to follow through on his meeting with Mamata Banerjee in Delhi.

In next door Bihar – one observes a similar slackening of tempo. First, the Manjhi experiment went horribly wrong. Although the Nitish – Lalu flirtation has fallen just short of consummation – it has brought both of them back to the centre-stage commanding greater share of voice and TRP.  At the same time – BJP leaders like Sushil Modi seem to have gone into hibernation. Other than an occasional sound-byte from  Shahnawaz Hussain  (Ravi Shankar Prasad usually speaks on  other issues – in any case his mass base in the state is questionable), Rajiv Rudy or Giriraj Singh – rest of BJP stalwarts from Bihar are deafeningly silent and happy to listen to Sharad Yadav holding forth on the relative physical attributes of women on  either side of the Vindhyas.

While it is undeniable that the Delhi rout was a major jolt for  Modi-Shah leadership – mercifully AAP’s own internecine war has shifted the focus from it and hopefully the initial embarrassment in Jammu and Kashmir has been – at least for the time being  – contained.  The news from old BJP ruled states like Chattisgarh and Madhya Pradesh are not much to write home about – with both Raman Singh and Shivraj Singh Chouhan under the shadow of scams (PDS and Recruitment) in their respective states.  The newly formed ministries in Jharkhand and Maharshtra are still settling down with their own set of challenges.  With Naveen Patnaik still going strong  Odisha remains largely out of bound for BJP at the moment.

It is conceivable that Modi-Shah have tactically decided to save the powder for another day while fighting more important battles in Parliament.  But, the overwhelming impression is their juggernaut has been stalled on its track.  While Modi can definitely chose his battles in a 5 year race – to win the war he would need to get the economy moving quickly.

PS: Since the article was published - the Government managed to get the crucial Coal and Mining Reforms Bills passed in the Rajya Sabha with the support of most major political parties - except Congress, the Left (CPIM + CPI) with the JDU and RJD staging a walk-out. However, the fate of the Land Acquisition Bill still hangs in balance.

Article first published in Swarajya Magazine (click here for original link)

Making haste slowly - 200 days of Modi Sarkar

I was unapologetic about rooting for Narendra Modi  through his Prime Ministerial campaign – though I don’t consider myself to be either a ‘Bhakt’ , as Modi fans are snidely called, or a "Hindutva" die-hard.  Now even after 7 months of his Premiership I still believe he is the best  we could have had.  However, in the same vein, I am not an unqualified supporter of the BJP. In fact, one of the reason for my admiring Modi is that he has been trying to reinvent and re-engineer the BJP for the 21^st century – while the Congress and other regional parties have been regressing under the pressure of pseudo socialism, dynastic and identity politics.

Looking back,  I am not at all disappointed with what the Modi government has achieved in 200 days.   Modi’s foreign policy initiatives were well calibrated, as he realized establishing his profile globally would be essential for him to be the leader of an aspiring super-power.  Besides, he needed to build personal rapport and strike a chemistry with his international peers – given the negative image over-hand  he was burdened with (unfairly, I believe).  The criticism about his foreign tours, I think – were more out of envy and for outsmarting both his predecessors and the self-appointed foreign policy specialists of the country.

Also I don’t think much more could have been achieved on the internal front. The quiet progress made on governance – improvement in the government’s work culture, empowerment of the bureaucracy and building of business confidence have gone largely unnoticed by the domestic constituency obsessed with big ticket reforms.  Far from being cynical, I see merit in his ‘making haste slowly’ and even appreciate the so called “U-turns” in policy – which only shows his courage to accept mistakes and eschew election rhetoric  to do what is right for the country and the economy.

Contrary to what popular commentators (for whom there is only Left or Right and nothing in-between) and the opposition still recovering from psychological trauma after their total rout would like us to believe – those who voted for Modi – do not necessarily see him as a Messiah with a magic wand. Credit them with the minimum intelligence to differentiate between election rhetoric and what is practical in a real politik. Therefore,  much to their disappointment,  #Modi is still high on the ratings in post-poll satisfaction surveys.  If further proof were needed, look at the by-poll results of Jharkhand and even J&K.  On the global front – he has made his mark - and  world leaders are falling over each other trying  to woo him. Successive studies have placed him at the top or near the top of the pecking order of high performing leaders in the world today.

Difficult decisions have also been taken keeping them below the radar.  Be it rise in railway fare or neutralizing some of the reduction in oil bills through additional excise duty. His critics have in hindsight seen merit in the way the WTO negotiations were handled. After a lot of deft maneuvering through choppy political waters - the government seems close to passing GST and Insurance sector reforms. Private sector participation in Defence equipment Manufacture and PPP in Railways already cleared. 

While leading foreign policy from the front (as any Prime Minister ought to do) – he has been making good use of Sushma Swaraj in opening parallel fronts (eg with Vietnam and SAARC Countries) and even co-opting the President in Diplomacy. Though not exactly in the realm of "external affairs", holding elections in J & K was hugely significant from a strategic perspective.

The lot getting restless are the industrialists and businessmen who expected quick returns and  the large Lutyens’ Delhi community of media folks and self-styled left-lib intellectuals – feeling ignored by the new dispensation. The latter especially should realize – governments aren’t made or unmade at the India International Centre. Even foreign investors and governments are more patient and willing to give the new regime to settle down and get over the carry-forward legacies of the UPA as well as the present political dynamics before pumping  gas on  the accelerator.

But, my disappointment with Modi lies elsewhere.  Before, the elections – he had loftily said : to win elections you need a majority but to run the country you need everyone’s support. This indicated that he would seek a more inclusive and bipartisan approach to governance. Then came his famous – act of touching  the ground before entering parliament for the first time - calling it the temple of democracy. But,  this spirit has been less evident  in the style he has displayed so far.

Let’s start with the Government first. The unseemly rush to replace UPA appointed Governors was avoidable – especially where professionals (retired bureaucrats or intelligence officers)  with proven track-record were holding the posts and had just a few months of their terms left.  This was followed by the LOP (Leader of Opposition) controversy – where certainly Modi could have shown more grace and a spirit of accommodation. Similarly, one might ask if they really needed to rush through the judicial reforms bill ?

One can always argue these are minor dots in the life of a regime, which are easily forgotten. But, it does sully the atmosphere and made the Prime Minister lose some of the initial goodwill with which he could have started his Parliamentary innings. But, perhaps, it was necessary to send out some early signals that this government won’t be a push-over.

Next was the stand-off with Shiv Sena in Maharashtra. Surely the Thackerays had to be shown their place but the snub was too hard and for far too long. Abject humiliation – even of an enemy doesn’t help – even if the old adage of grace in victory is now passé.

Obviously, Modi and Amit Shah are working with a road-map and blue-print – which only the 2 of them know and even the RSS can only guess. Part of the plan must be to take advantage of this neo-Hindutva wave and establish a pan-India presence for BJP. Therefore, the vengeance with which the Modi-Shah duo is going into hitherto uncharted territories like Kerala, Tamil Nadu, West Bengal, North East and even J & K – shows they want to free themselves from the clutches of a handful of regional satraps and opportunistic allies.  

Personally, I don’t worry too much about the antics of the so-called “fringe elements”. It’s only a matter of time before Modi brings them under control, like he did with Togadia in Gujarat, as he settles his equations with the RSS. Therefore, winning these states with low RSS presence would also be key to his establishing an unquestionable supremacy. For me – the bigger irritants and distractions are Modi’s own trusted Ministers like Smriti Irani making news for the wrong reasons such as declaring Christmas as “Good Governance Day”. And, I wish he didn’t have to yield to RSS and party pressure in making some patently inappropriate choice of ministers. But, concerns voiced by the self-appointed guardians of democracy – that “secularism” and India’s plurality is at stake are both exaggerated and alarmist.

I would argue that – even if it were not for these ‘red-herrings’ , a recalcitrant opposition would find other excuses for disrupting governance. But, they can continue to do only for a sort while more till BJP populates the Rajya Sabha with their own members from the newly ‘conquered’ provinces.

Till then the government needs to stay its course and carry on with the development agenda – steadily, even if a bit slowly.