Decoding Didi 2.0

Mamata Banerjee has hit a ‘sweet spot’ in her political career, but maintaining the momentum will be a challenge

Photo Courtesy: HBL and PTI

Article first published in @thehindubusinessline.com (Click here)

A young female foreign tourist with a backpack in Kolkata’s Maidan area incredulously watches an approaching tramcar. Next moment she is transported in a trance inside the tram — finding herself tangoing with Shah Rukh Khan with Tagore’s “Chini go, chini tomarey — ogo bideshini...” (I recognise you my lady from an alien land) playing in the background. As Shah Rukh drops her in a silhouette movement on his arm — a motley bunch of passengers in the tram clap and cheer them.

It is a commercial being shot for Tourism Bengal’s campaign — ‘The Sweetest Part of India’. But, seeing the rushes Didi is not impressed. She thinks there is too little of Sharukh in the film. Turning to the secretary, she chides him — “Meye ta ke kaat hotey dekhe tumee nijey o kaat hoye geley” (seeing the girl drop — your jaw dropped too) and orders the ad agency to go back to Mumbai and shoot some additional footage.

One cannot vouch for the veracity of this account. Possibly one of those many apocryphal stories. But it sounds quintessentially Mamata Banerjee. It is her grass-root sensibilities talking. Even if Sharukh is doing the commercial for free — the production company is charging a bomb and she wants value for money. As a consummate communicator she knows what the audience wants but now also understanding the importance of slick packaging.

In another talked about instance, the CM landed at a newly refurbished Government Tourist Lodge in the Dooars forests of North Bengal. Though she liked the changes carried out, the tariff bothered her, which she thought was too steep for the regular Bengali tourist. She at once called the chief of Tourism Corporation from her mobile and asked him to reconsider the rates — who dropped it pronto by a thousand rupees. Mamata knows the Bengalis love for travel and she also understands their budget constraints. More importantly she is clear — it is this socio economic segment, rather than the affluent urban elite, who form her second largest constituency after the rural poor.

The new avatar

So, what is different about Mamata Banerjee 2.0? First, she has read the victory as an unequivocal positive mandate for herself (unlike in the first term — when it was largely a backlash against the Left). She nipped the potential anti-incumbency factor of local Trinamool satraps by declaring herself as the virtual candidate in all 282 constituencies — making it a “Mamata Vs. the Rest” election. Her strategy was paid off by the phenomenal win. The message was clear: people still trust her and she cannot let them down.

This is reflected in the self-assured confidence she displays. Much of the old volatility is missing. Though there is the customary criticism of the opposition and centre — it is sans venom and vitriol. There is the willingness for pragmatic cooperation as seen during the GST voting. Scores are settled with adversaries (like a media baron) through silent signalling. Limits are being set for party strongmen — reminding them no one is indispensable.

Second, she also sees the second-term as an endorsement and shot in the arm for her larger national ambitions. The days of being a regional ally in a larger coalition are behind for her. She is not the one to remain ensconced in Kolkata as Didi to her “Maa, Maati, Manush” leaving Delhi to the big boys of the cow-belt in lieu of a few meaty portfolios for her party in the Union Cabinet like a DMK, RJD or SP. Now, she is ready to play for bigger stakes. As some of her close associates have already indicated – “do not rule out” her being a serious contender for the top job.

However, for making that audacious bid — she needs to establish at least two strong credentials. First, is a track record of good governance and development — a la Modi’s “Gujarat model”. The second, would be a presence — however token — beyond West Bengal. For both, she has less than three years in hand.

Instant redress

Bureaucrats close to Mamata Banerjee claim — the work done in the last five years, especially in the villages, is underestimated. Banerjee thinks that has been the main plank of her victory and it is the administration – rather than the politicians – who ensured delivery. Therefore, this time round she has increased her reliance on bureaucrats over politicians. Much talked about in government circles are her Saturday “classes” at her Kalighat residence — where she is known to often read the riot act to errant party members.

Taking a leaf from the book of neighbour Nitish Kumar — she travels to the districts with secretaries in tow. Issues raised by local constituents are assigned to concerned departments — who are held accountable for execution of projects. Decision is instant. Officers are enjoying the new empowerment.

Banerjee realises – quick wins will come from services. Hence, the emphases on sectors like tourism. But, she also knows people would like to see new industries on the ground. Attracting industrialists to come from outside and inviting FDI may be fashionable but not going to be easy. Many expect her to “bite the bullet” on land acquisition in her second term but, doubt if she will risk it before 2019.

Besides, land alone will not solve the problem of industrialisation. The introduction of GST may further whittle the incentive for setting up manufacturing base in Bengal. On software, Bengal has missed the bus long ago. Possibly, the Kerala model could also well work for Bengal — where the economy thrives on repatriated earnings and service industries like education, healthcare and tourism.

Add to that tea, food processing, handicrafts and fish (both sea and inland pisciculture) and one could have a winning formula. With investment in education — West Bengal can become a major exporter of skilled and knowledge workers. Health-care can attract medical tourists. These are areas where local entrepreneurs may also be more amenable to putting their money.

Ramping up tourism

It may be argued that some of these are already happening. Sadly, today West Bengal is a source of low-skilled manpower — among them a large number are just transiting population moving from across the border. Young Bengalis go to other states for higher education in engineering and medicine — then settle in new employment hubs like Bangalore, Hyderabad, Pune and Gurgaon. Older Bengalis flock to Chennai and Vellore for Medical treatment.

In tourism statistics Bengal claims to get higher number of Foreign Tourists than Kerala. But it is not difficult to guess where they come from. Domestic tourist numbers are high, too, but even they are largely intra-State budget travellers and pilgrims.

High-end tourism too will need investment and infrastructure. But, there are some low-hanging fruits — Sunderbans, Dooars and the Hills. Well marketed with a proper tourism policy and quality assurance process — Sharukh’s tango just may work.

Whether Bengal is the Sweetest Part of India or not Mamata has certainly hit a ‘sweet spot’ in her political career and she knows it. Renaming the state from West Bengal to Bangla is a declaration of her ascent.

It's now The Rest Vs BJP everywhere

Photo Courtesy +ABP NEWS 

Article first published in +ABP NEWS Click here to read

On arrival at Patna Airport on Friday, the notice of prohibition in the State at the entrance of the baggage claim area was a stark reminder – not of the day of abstinence lying ahead, but the reports of the Gopalgunj hooch tragedy arrests that were in the morning papers. There have been more than 30 reported deaths by illicit liquor since declaration of prohibition in April. In the light of this news, Lalu Prasad Yadav’s advice to drink toddy did not sound appealing or amusing at all.

After a few initial misadventures that invited exemplary consequences (like some well known businessmen arrested from a leading hotel in town where they had checked in for a private tippling session) the city gentry has largely reconciled to the reality of a long dry spell at home. But, what seems to bother them more are these incidents, which they see as symptoms of underworld resurgence in the State, where law and order is on a visible slide with political killings, shootouts, kidnapping and rape making a rapid comeback.

Oddly, among the people I met, mostly from the business community coming from upcountry towns and the rural belt, one sensed more a spirit of sad surrender to their fate rather than angst on the Government or any political party. The spirit was one of “yeh toh hona hi tha” (it had to happen). They blamed the situation on circumstances, saying it was a product of an alliance of disparate ideologies with the sole purpose of keeping the BJP out of power. It is the same motivation that will keep JDU, RJD and Congress together till 2019 despite their inner conflicts and contradictions. No one I came across expected a disintegration of the Government even if it continued to under-deliver on governance.

How would that manifest in BJP’s prospects in 2019? Much would depend, of course, on how “Brand Modi” fares in the second half of his term. If his ratings continue to remain high, Biharis may be inclined to vote very differently from how they did in the Assembly election, overriding caste equations. That is when the role of local dons and warlords will become critical. With Nitish Kumar making no secret of his ambition to shift court from Pataliputra to Indraprastha, it is doubtful whether his administration can come down too heavily on them as they had done during his first term.

Coming to Awadh, driving down from the new Chaudhary Charan Singh Airport (swanky in comparison to Patna’s modest Jai Prakash Narayan Hawai Adda) one cannot miss the election billboards and poll-kiosks already heralding the elections. Considering the polls are still at least six months away, one may think the political parties are peaking too early.

The most visible are of course Mayawati’s BSP (who have declared majority of their candidates) and Samajwadi Party. While the BSP hoardings prominently feature their supreme leader with the local candidate, Shivpal Yadav vies for space with Mulayam and Akhilesh Yadav in Samajwadi Party signage. Congress too is seeking its share of voice with Sheila Dikshit’s photo tucked below the foursome of Sonia Gandhi, Rahul Gandhi, Raj Babbar and Ghulam Nabi Azad. Significantly, Priyanka is so far absent in the deck.

Compared to the other three parties — BSP, SP and Congress — BJP’s visibility is practically nil. One can attribute it to two or three reasons. First, it is yet to finalise the CM face of the party. Second, it could be that it is keeping the powder dry for later use. Third, may be it is waiting for the dust to settle down after the Dalit controversy. Till now, BJP is making more news for defections from the BSP to its fold.

One common thread running through the three campaigns (of BSP, SP, Congress) is all have an eye on the Muslim vote. Among them, Mayawati has replaced a large number of her “upper caste” candidates with Muslim faces, hoping to dent into Mulayam’s stronghold. Congress has tried to add a further twist by ‘importing’ the “Brahmin Bahu”  Sheila Dixit, which many people scoff at as a declaration of political ‘bankruptcy’.

What this connotes clearly is that as in Bihar, BJP is also the common “Enemy No 1” in Uttar Pradesh.  Even three months ago, people were unwilling to bet on the BJP. Now they feel BJP’s prospects have perceptively improved. What has shifted the needle is the likely division of the Samajwadi Party’s Muslim base in favour BSP and at some places even the Congress.

This will not only result in greater consolidation of the upper caste vote but also create cracks in the core constituencies of BSP and SP for a number of reasons. First, voters are beginning to see through and become wary of the number games of caste and community in which they feel “used”. Second, there seems to be a fatigue in five-year cyclical rule of SP and BSP. This could go in favour of SP too, especially given Akhilesh’s publicity over drive on the performance of his Government – claiming transformation of ‘Uttar Pradesh’ to “Umeed O Ki Pradesh” – but some of it could accrue to BJP as well with appreciation in Narendra Modi’s political stock in coming months.

But, six months is a long time in politics and much can and will change in the coming days. A crucial decision point will be the declaration of BJP’s CM candidate, if and when they chose to go public with a name. But, there are also many surprise elements– such as flash points among Dalits or minorities – that can dramatically change the course of the match in its slog overs. Though it is still wishful thinking that a section of the Muslim vote will switch to BJP in the bargain.

Finally, in Jaipur one senses a clear change in mood of BJP from incipient despondency to renewed determination. The party has recognised the challenges of incumbency and decided to take it head on going forward. There are enough indications of Nagpur weighing in favour of the current leadership, starting with mega RSS national meets held few months back in Nagaur and to frequent visits of Nitin Gadkari to the State.

In contrast, Congress has so far been banking upon the disenchantment with Vasundhara Raje’s second term that has earned it some wins in recent elections of civic bodies and panchayats. But it still does not have much of on-ground traction to speak of. Finally, there will, as usual, be the question mark on who will lead the charge from the front – the gen next Sachin Pilot or an Ashok Gehlot called back from retirement, like Sheila Dikshit in UP, which will keep it a divided house.

Whether they win or lose, it is now decidedly BJP versus the rest across all these States. Prohibition may or may not last beyond three years in Bihar but BJP is in for the long haul and no one can wish them away in a hurry.

In the fatness of things

Tele Bhaja Shop in Kolkata
(photo courtesy: http://writethecalcuttadiaries.blogspot.in/2013/05/veritable-vintage.html)

Kerala has introduced a “Fat Tax” on “junk food” like Burgers and Pizzas. Before that I believe Bihar has already a levied a tax on Samosas. (Click here to read Chitra Narayanan’s sharp take in HBL). Both are odd. The first since – I am yet to meet an obese #Malayali. If Coconut Oil and Banana Chips can’t make them fat – nothing else will. And, taxing Samosas could actually threaten the fate of alliance in #Bihar. After all – who can forget Lalu Prasad’s famous declaration – “jab tak Samosa mein rahega aloo…..”

It seems the real reason behind these dyspeptic moves is to make up for the revenue loss on Excise Duty for liquor – post imposition of prohibition.

A few days ago – newspapers said #WestBengal Government was also mulling a liquor ban in the state. That set me wondering – what additional tax can Mamata Banerjee impose. A Fat Tax won’t work – because the problem of Bengalis is not ‘Fat’ but ‘Gaas’ (pronounced “gaash’).

Fried (allegdly) in 'Virgin' Diesel Oil
(photo courstesyhttp://kolkataphotoframes.blogspot.in/2013/07/fries-for-bengali-telebhaja.html

Now to control “Gaas” She may have to target “Mudi-Telebhaja-Chop” (Puffed Rice and Fritters fried in recycled Mustard Oil) – the staple evening snack of Ma, Maati, Manush. Those a little higher on the food chain – dig into the ubiquitous Chicken / Mutton Egg Rolls on the way back from with Paranthas fried in Virgin Diesel Oil, allegedly. But, that can’t work because – it will drive a large vote-bank – street hawkers and street corner Tele-bhaja vendors out of business.


But, eureka !! the “gorment” can think of levying a sur-charge on Gelusil, Zantac, Uni Enzyme and the whole range of antacids and digestive cures – the life line of Bhadraloks.

West Bengal "Poriborton": Be the change

To make her place permanent in the hearts of Bengalis—the Didi for all times to come—‘poriborton’, like charity must begin from within.

Article first published in +Mint Click here to read

At his first rally in Kolkata—in the run-up to the 2014 Lok Sabha election, Narendra Modi called for Dada (Pranab Mukherjee) in Rashtrapati Bhavan, Didi (Mamata Banerjee) in West Bengal and (Narendra) Bhai in Delhi. Two years down the line, on the second anniversary of the Modi government, that formulation has indeed fallen into place. And significantly, in a Congress-mukt (Congress-free) form—since Banerjee’s Trinamool Congress opted for an Ekla Chalo Re (Go-it-alone) act in the recent state assembly election.

Whether one subscribes to the theories of tacit deals in Delhi or not, the equations on the ground have subtly changed. With the odd coupling of the Left and the Congress, Bharatiya Janata Party’s (BJP) 10% vote share has become a critical variable that Banerjee can no longer ignore. Whether it was media hype or wishful thinking that created an illusion of a late surge for the Left-Congress ‘Jot’, (alliance) it has left even the old faithful dejected about the future of any anti-TMC configuration in the state. It is entirely conceivable, a chunk of this section may well switch to BJP in 2019. Therefore, no matter how much of shadow boxing and verbal fencing Trinamool and BJP might indulge in public—one can safely expect to see more of “issue-based” support in Parliament—starting with the passing of the GST Bill among other pending legislation that had grounded NDA’s reforms agenda.

All this should augur well for the state too —as Modi-Shah cannot afford to ignore the MP count of West Bengal in doing their arithmetic for 2019. Mamata Banerjee is too sharp a politician to miss her tryst with history. Like Narendra Modi’s claims of a Vibrant Gujarat, she knows a ‘Resurgent Biswa Bangla’ can be her ticket to a Congress-mukt anti-BJP national league. Hence, she has little option but to make Unnayan (development) her equivalent of the bullet train. Bengal has decidedly changed from Red to Green—but, she knows, without visible economic progress, it could easily turn to saffron in the next three to five years.

A week is too short a time to make any prediction. But, some developments of the last seven days have left people jittery with premonitions of an encore of the last five years. Though her first interaction with the media after the results was measured and moderate, the signals thereafter, do not reflect the same maturity. To start with, she upturned the changes made by the Election Commission in the police commissariat, bringing back her favourite officer—perhaps, as a message to the bureaucracy that the boss is back. There was not even a hint of apology either for the pre-poll violence or the scams that were caught on camera. In fact, she went a step further to declare West Bengal as a “corruption free state”. As if to cock a snook at her opponents and detractors—she has many of the accused caught in sting operation—like Firad Hakim of Kolkata’s “mini-Pakistan” fame—back in the cabinet. One has also not seen any discernible attempt to check post-poll attacks on perceived ‘traitors’—with the customary trading of charges between opposing camps.

Banerjee’s biggest challenge is the lack of intellectual bandwidth in her team. There is no point in denying that the Bengal cadre of bureaucracy is shallow on talent. The brighter officers of Bengali origin—who have either moved to the Centre or belong to other state cadres are loathe to come back to Kolkata—just as many private sector professionals thriving in the greener pastures in Mumbai, Delhi and Bengaluru. Therefore, Mamata is handicapped by not having at her disposal a bunch of savvy officers like Narendra Modi had in Gujarat or a Nitish Kumar has been able to hand-pick from the formidable Bihar bench in the IAS. Among her ministerial colleagues—other than Amit Mitra, who has maintained a low profile compared to his Ficci days—Banerjee does not have the equivalent of Modi’s ‘Navaratna’—to implement her vision. There are a few with proven track record in administration—like Subrata Mukherjee—but their role has been restricted so far. In her second term—Mamata Banerjee cannot rely just on her earthy, commonsense wisdom. She needs experts to advise her, for which she has to give up micro-management and give them space and freedom to operate.

What Bengal needs are some quick wins. Land acquisition—though one can say with reasonable certainty Banerjee will crack it in this term—and industry will not happen overnight. Besides, investors do not put money on the ground till they develop confidence in the long-term outlook (think Bihar, where industrialization has still not taken off despite this being Nitish Kumar’s third term). The solution, therefore, is the service industry. But even that will require breakthrough thinking and a radical change in work culture. Bengal has already missed the bus of the generic IT outsourcing boom, where Bengaluru, Gurgaon and Chennai have secured huge leads. Trying to enter late into the party will make it at best a distant also-ran. The way to go would be to build specialized competencies around select industries like food processing and floriculture in which the state has a natural advantage and provide a good complementary fit for service ancillaries.

But, salvation may lie in returning to the traditional Bengali knowledge-based competencies in education, medicine (healthcare), scientific research, cinema and aesthetics (design). Bengal is the only state that spans the Himalayas to the sea—with stretches of river, forests and archaeological treasures like Bishnupur and Murshidabad in between. With proper infrastructure, it can easily repeat Kerala’s tourism act. Smartly marketed, the Sunderbans can any day give the backwaters a run for its money. For a start, Banerjee may be able to woo back talent from the diaspora with her sisterly (didi) charm, which could be much more productive than forays to Singapore, London and the US for the elusive and illusory foreign direct investment.

In September, Banerjee will be travelling to Rome to attend the canonization of Mother Teresa. There is one lesson, perhaps, she can take from the late Albanian nun soon to be anointed saint. To make her place permanent in the hearts of Bengalis—the Didi for all times to come—poriborton, like charity must begin from within. TOPICS: MAMATA BANERJEEWEST BENGALCONGRESSTRINAMOOL CONGRESSASSEMBLY ELECTIONS

Life after Bihar for Modi Bhakts

Bhakts flummoxed as BJP leadership goes MIA

Article first published in +ABPLIVE Click here to read

If 2014 was the best of times, undoubtedly this is the worst of times for Modi "Bhakts". I define "Bhakts" - as people who had unconditionally reposed their faith in Narendra Modi to pull the country out of the woods. It's not that the more rational ones among them (an I would like to include myself among them)  - weren't apprehensive of a setback in Bihar. But they hadn't bargained for a total rout. The so called "revolt of the elders" came as an under the  radar missile - which took everyone by surprise - even as the BJP Parliamentary Board was in a huddle trying to find its feet after the drubbing. It was palpable the leadership was flummoxed and didn't know how to react.

At this crucial juncture, Prime Minister Modi hopped onto Air India One for his London and Turkey outing. The 'narrative' was left pretty much for the media to run - with top leaders withdrawing almost into a shell. It wasn't clear who was in-charge in the PM's absence both in the government and party - except for a few feeble interventions by Jaitley and low key public appearances by the now chastised Shah. If there were backroom parleys happening for damage control - there were no signs of it outside.

Opposition as stunned as BJP

Meanwhile, among news on the process of government formation in Bihar and stories about how Nitish with his come-on-the-rebound whizkid Prashant Kishore had pulled off the impossible - one could sense a new surge of energy in Congress - as was visible in Sonia Gandhi's scathing attack on Modi in her Nehru Anniversary speeches. The rest of the opposition seemed to be in an equal state of shock (albeit, a pleasant one) trying to unravel the potential ramification - of both the Bihar Verdict and BJP's internal "mutiny" - on future political configurations. In short, the Bihar outcome had stunned the entire political system of the country.

Throughout "Bhakts" remained steadfastly committed to Modi even as a large section of his core constituency had begun to either show signs of disenchantment or beginning to slide from frustration to anger  (not just those who had bought the dream of "Acche Din" - but also the middle-class and business community that had en-bloc shifted their weight towards BJP in the expectation of economic revival and development). The "believers" continued to bet on Modi - delivering despite odds and possible setbacks in elections. As the writing on the electoral bill-boards began to light-up - they still hoped against hope - it won't be a wash-out for the BJP. But, that was not to be. Till the Bihar results  - many were expediently shifting blame on some of Modi's colleagues - like Jaitley - and a reluctant bureaucracy for the government's inability to match its words with delivery. But, suddenly they find themselves at a loss on who to hold accountable - except the "Supreme Duo".

Mixed Signals

Meanwhile, mixed signals continue to emanate from different echelons of the party and the RSS. It is anybody's guess as to where the RSS stands on the "Old Guard Revolt" - just as one doesn't know if there has been any plain-speaking with Mohan Bhagwat on his ill-timed anti-reservation "bomb-shell" that was undoubtedly the tipping point of the polls. Then there is also this intriguing silence over Shatrughan Sinha and other disgruntled elements, who have been berating the leadership with impunity. One is not sure how the Sangh leadership  is viewing Amit Shah - though Nitin Gadkari - Nagpur's blue-eyed boy - has risen to his defence. The dynamics at play inside the "parivaar" are far too complex for the simple-minded "Bhakt" to fathom.

Hardik and Prashant the new kids on the block 

Reams are being written offering suggestions on how Modi needs to reboot the party and  government - if he wants at least a fighting chance for the remaining 3 and half-year of tenure without dreaming of a second term at this stage. But, for the ordinary Bhakt the calculations have gone awry. If Bihar was a disaster it is unlikely that UP and West Bengal can be any better. Everyone is skeptical about the prospects in Punjab - where BJP has to carry the dead-weight of the Badals. The pessimists are also worried about the outcome of the Gujarat Municipal Polls - with the wild-card entry of Hardik Patel in Big Boss' house.  So, Modi-Shah's plan of reducing dependence on problematic allies like Shiv-Sena will have to wait and they will have to continue to do off-line trade-offs with NDA fence-sitters like NCP and Samajwadi Party. 

Having tasted blood as it were - the Opposition, especially the Congress, will become more strident inside and outside the Parliament. With their disruptive mindset - it is unlikely they will get down to deal making on important legislations even if Modi were to descend from his high horse. If Sonia Gandhi can have her way - she would like to see Modi dislodged much earlier than 2019. We are already seeing the new darling on the block Prashant Kishore doing his own round of "Chai-pe-Charcha" with leaders of non-BJP parties including the Congress and Arun Shourie - the self-appointed representative of BJP's Club of Octogenarians.

An enigma called Modi

The answer to these conundrums can come only from one man - an enigma called Modi. So, far he has been keeping a brave front. He spiritedly campaigned in Bihar till the last day - when he would have surely known from internal  assessments that the party was heading for a defeat. In Britain and the G20 summit - he did not betray any erosion of confidence or frayed nerves in his body language - that was being keenly watched with a telescope by all. Can he turn the tables again on his opponents - the next few months running up to the Budget Session should tell. Till then - the Bhakts will have to make do with far fewer hours of sleep just like their "Dear Leader" - who reportedly sleeps for only 4 hours in a day.

Bihar Verdict - a Business Manager's view of what went wrong in Modi-Shah's game-plan

Never wear a suit more expensive than your boss'

(first published in +ABP NEWS )

Called up my Dad - recently turned 85 - to check his reaction on Bihar results. He quoted from Browning's Patriot "It was Roses, Roses all the way.....18 months ago...........". So, how did Modi and Amit Shah manage to fritter away a historic mandate in such a short time ? In the coming 24 hours and over the next several days there will be saturation analysis of what went wrong for BJP and worked in favour of the Mahagathbandhan - with many "I told you so pieces", as indeed epitaphs for Modi. Therefore, leaving the politics aside for the pundits let us spend a few minutes on the faulty mechanics and management of the BJP campaign.

There is no way Modi and Amit Shah could have underestimated the importance and challenge of Bihar. In fact, it is believed that lot of decisions of the government were taken (or hard calls and aggressive reforms were withheld for that matter) with the Bihar elections in mind - not just the Rs 1.25 lakh crore package declared just before the polls. It was apparent that, the government was banking on the Bihar Polls (followed by UP and Bengal next year) to shore up its strength in the Rajya Sabha for getting many crucial legislation through.

It may be argued that, the media and chattering classes had turned comprehensively against Modi and rooting for it to bite dust - but that was something Modi-Shah duo should have anticipated. They had successfully countered a more hostile media in the run up to the Lok sabha Polls - so where did their act fall apart this time around. It is easy to cook up conspiracy theories (and some of it may not be entirely unfounded) but again that is the job of seasoned campaigners - especially if they are from the ruling establishment - to tackle. How - therefore - did they lose the Midas touch ?

Right from day one - Modi government's handling of the media has been callous. What appeared deliberately calibrated (for reasons inexplicable - except, perhaps, for past grudges and arrogance  of winning the election 'despite them') at the start soon turned out to be plain incompetence. Last year - exactly at this time - one may recall, Modi made a feeble attempt to thaw the ice at BJP's "Diwali Party" - which was a heady selfie "kiss and make-up" moment for journalists - even those who had been critical of him in the past. But, that's where it ended. Somewhere, due to the "We know best" syndrome that afflicts this government - they seem to have dispensed with the professional help, that Modi-Shah were rumoured to have used for the Lok Sabha polls, just like they jettisoned Shah's own discovery - Prashant Kishor, whom Nitish was quick to pick up. Instead, Media Relations were left largely to someone like Arun Jaitley - who may be friendly with certain sections of the media (largely in the English speaking Lutyens' circuit - but an outsider for the vernacular and regional sphere) but isn't exactly a "media manager" - in the way, say an Ahmed Patel, of the Congress is.

In a recent piece in another publication, the author had discussed how "fist mover advantage" is short-lived in a competitive world - where people are quick to "copy with pride". Therefore, what has worked in the past - whether in Gujarat or the Lok Sabha Polls - loses its edge over time unless re-sharpened and re-engineered periodically.

But, the bigger task for any leader or manager is to manage expectations of stakeholders. here, Modi seems to have developed a disconnect between what he considered important for the electorate and what they had expected to see on the ground. Any new leader, need some quick wins to establish his or her credibility. This is where Modi failed miserably - partly due to the opposition tripping him in Parliament (like the Land Acquisition Bill and GST) but mainly due to his own misplaced priorities. Social welfare schemes like Jan Dhan Yojna and Atal Pension Yojna may be good talking points in the ramparts of the Red Fort on Independence Day - but doesn't cut much ice with people who have been spoilt by doles. So no amount of Neem quoting of Urea can take away the sting of Rs 200 /kg Arhar Daal, cut in agricultural subsidies and withholding release of MNREGA payments for fiscal prudence. Today, not only the masses expect immediate gratification - but even the young blue collared workers and business honchos are more concerned about the "here and now" rather than a handsome superannuation scheme.

Finally, as more and more professional Managers start working for Family Owned Enterprises, business schools are teaching how to balance the priorities of owners with that of the external stakeholders. Here Man Mohan Singh's job was easy - as he worked for a sole proprietor. Modi - on the other hand - has to work with a traditional HUF (Hindu United Family). A cardinal rule in business is never to wear a suit more expensive than your boss' and travel first-class when your austere malik flies "Cattle Class". Modi erred on both counts. MMS had no problem with the first - wearing the same blue turban for 10 years. Though it is alright for a Prime Minister to dress well - the blue suit everyone agrees was a little over the top.

Modi's foreign policy forays were no doubt phenomenal. But, not only that was a cause of envy for his opponents at home but also, one suspects, made some other nations wary of his meteoric rise in the international scene from being a pariah just 18 months ago. The bigger issue, however, this was the most visible part of his tenure so far - even if he was working 20 hours a day on all other fronts - which opposition could easily taunt with a rural electorate.

It is a dangerous thing - when the 'Malik - Parivaar' begins to lose confidence in the CEO - feeling he is not acting in their best interest. Since, he can't be sacked immediately - some of the family stalwarts - who want to see him fail start pulling the rug silently from under the feet. That to a large extent explains the reluctance of RSS to reign in their fringe elements or Mohan Bhagwat making irresponsible statements on the eve of crucial phases of the election. Even other members on the team - confused by mixed signals - of which way the wind is blowing begin to get disengaged though may appear to maintain a brave front outside. 

In what was always expected to be a polarised contest - driven by caste arithmetic - BJP's salvation rested on the last mile and last minute booth management by RSS cadres. It is questionable - if RSS was sincere about throwing their full weight behind Modi. Though they may not have wished to see him defeated - but perhaps a little mauled. It's another story - once the grip is loosened - the rope can slip much more than one had bargained for.

Modi and Shah need to seriously revisit their strategy going forward - if they don't want an encore of Browning's Patriot - "Thus I entered and thus I go" - not only to ensure a return in 2019 but, though harsh as it may sound, salvage the remaining 3 and half years of the current term.

For +ABP NEWS Blog please click here

Exit polls have the last laugh

Exit Polls are "Satta-Bazee" for the thinking individuals

(first published on the eve of Bihar Election Results in +DailyO India Today )

The "Ed Honcho" (as he likes to call himself) of this fine publication very perceptively tweeted - the only winners in "Exit Polls" are the pollsters themselves (paraphrased). I say, Exit Polls are 'thinking' people's Satta-Bazee. Or voyeuristic foreplay before the final results come in (no pun in that). For, Media, of course, it is a TRP generating machine - that makes armchair psephologists with 3 days shelf-life. Having burnt their fingers many times - many channels and newspapers now resort to quoting multiple surveys (including those of competitors) to hedge their bets (Heads I win, Tails you lose formula).

It has been written - how difficult it is to predict election outcomes in a country like India by polling a few thousand voters (even if techniques and methodologies have vastly improved over time). Then - there are always allegations of "fixed" polls (though the utility of it has been eliminated with the Election Commission banning polls in between phases of the election). But, in a nation hooked on to political reality shows Exit Polls still remain a draw - even if the final results turn out to be quite different.

Yet, Exit Polls can have a utility of their own if viewers and analysts don't get too obsessed with predictions. The final results can be a function of many collateral factors in our "first past the post" electoral system. These could range from last mile and last day voter mobilisation and "booth management" (often an euphemism for "booth capturing" or "rigging" as it is referred to in some parts of the country). It is here that Exit Polls can throw up insights that aren't apparent even in pre-poll surveys. Therefore, TV studio political pundits would do well not to get too carried away with the projections and instead dwell a little more on underlying messages and trends. 

It is for this the Bihar Election Exit Polls are significant - irrespective of which alliance wins and finally forms the government. There are several key lessons and learning to be taken out of the current elections - some of which can become standards for future elections in the country.

Notwithstanding how many polls predict victory of which party - it is quite clear the contest at the ground level was intensely fierce even if the final tally is wider (which may indeed be the case) than what people generally expect. Contrary to popular theory, it was BJP that started with a disadvantage if not as an underdog. Amit Shah and the BJP election strategists could not have been oblivious about the  "anti-incumbency" that had begun to weigh down Modi Government's credibility.  

BJP strategy was, therefore, based primarily on micro-planning and geo-mapping voter mobilisation by RSS cadres. The trump card was obviously Modi's star appeal. While BJP would surely have done their caste arithmetic - even after Lalu and Nitish joining hands (and with Mulayam - leaving the alliance) - they probably hoped that Lalu's "Yadav" votes won't automatically move en-masse to Nitish. Simultaneously - they would have been confident of their traditional vote bank of the Upper Castes remaining intact and Most Backward Castes (MBCs) swinging towards them aided by allies as Manjhi and Paswan.

The intention here is not to lapse into another electoral prediction. But, challenge a few premises - based on some of the trends that are coming to light. If voters went purely by caste considerations - Modi could never have made such a clean sweep in 2014 Lok Sabha polls. And, if indeed, there is some basis to the exit polls indicating traditional BJP voters have been lukewarm (especially in the 3rd phase - which was supposed to be BJP strongholds) - it does raise the question are voters willing to assert their voice and choice if not rising above but going beyond caste. So for the new discerning voter "Arhar (Daal)" prices take precedence over "Har-Har".

That despite the underlying rivalry and not sharing the dais in any rally - Lalu and Nitish didn't under-cut each other is because their respective constituents acted as the real glue.

In the same vein one begins to wonder - has the rural voter become much sharper not to be distracted by "manufactured" pre-poll controversies of cows and religion or promises of quotas and reservation. They have become much more realistic and wary of promises of development and governance - going by proven track record discounted for reasonable under-delivery and shortfall (2014 was perhaps - the lowest point in people's cynicism - when Modi arrived as a Messiah to sweep them of their feet. But, since then sanity has been restored). 

With improved security and better electoral administration (including holding polls in staggered phases to allow redeployment of forces) rigging has become less rampant - even if not fully eliminated - in most parts of the country to majorly affect state level results. 

Finally, technology, research and analytics have come to stay. Increasingly parties will become more sophisticate in using media - especially Social and Digital Media, Viral Word-of-Mouth campaigns and ambush strategies. BJP might have had a first mover advantage in 2014 - but such competitive edge don't last for more than one election as professionals like Prashant Kishore don't have any political loyalties and in no time many more PeeKays will be born.

As a political wise-crack remarked - elections mean "Gol-Maal". Let's take the "Maal" (or essence) from the surveys and leave the "gol" for the losers. To mildly twist the quote of the Prime Minister - "Elections Ayega, jayega" - aur Exit Polls be galat nikalte rahega".

Exit Polls are 'thinking people's' satta-bazee

The "Ed Honcho" (as he likes to call himself) of this fine publication very perceptively tweeted - the only winners in "Exit Polls" are the pollsters themselves (paraphrased). I say, Exit Polls are 'thinking' people's Satta-Bazee. Or voyeuristic foreplay before the final results come in (no pun in that). For, Media, of course, it is a TRP generating machine - that makes armchair psephologists with 3 days shelf-life. Having burnt their fingers many times - many channels and newspapers now resort to quoting multiple surveys (including those of competitors) to hedge their bets (Heads I win, Tails you lose formula).

It has been written - how difficult it is to predict election outcomes in a country like India by polling a few thousand voters (even if techniques and methodologies have vastly improved over time). Then - there are always allegations of "fixed" polls (though the utility of it has been eliminated with the Election Commission banning polls in between phases of the election). But, in a nation hooked on to political reality shows Exit Polls still remain a draw - even if the final results turn out to be quite different.

Yet, Exit Polls can have a utility of their own if viewers and analysts don't get too obsessed with predictions. The final results can be a function of many collateral factors in our "first past the post" electoral system. These could range from last mile and last day voter mobilisation and "booth management" (often an euphemism for "booth capturing" or "rigging" as it is referred to in some parts of the country). It is here that Exit Polls can throw up insights that aren't apparent even in pre-poll surveys. Therefore, TV studio political pundits would do well not to get too carried away with the projections and instead dwell a little more on underlying messages and trends. 

It is for this the Bihar Election Exit Polls are significant - irrespective of which alliance wins and finally forms the government. There are several key lessons and learning to be taken out of the current elections - some of which can become standards for future elections in the country.

Notwithstanding how many polls predict victory of which party - it is quite clear the contest at the ground level was intensely fierce even if the final tally is wider (which may indeed be the case) than what people generally expect. Contrary to popular theory, it was BJP that started with a disadvantage if not as an underdog. Amit Shah and the BJP election strategists could not have been oblivious about the  "anti-incumbency" that had begun to weigh down Modi Government's credibility.  

BJP strategy was, therefore, based primarily on micro-planning and geo-mapping voter mobilisation by RSS cadres. The trump card was obviously Modi's star appeal. While BJP would surely have done their caste arithmetic - even after Lalu and Nitish joining hands (and with Mulayam - leaving the alliance) - they probably hoped that Lalu's "Yadav" votes won't automatically move en-masse to Nitish. Simultaneously - they would have been confident of their traditional vote bank of the Upper Castes remaining intact and Most Backward Castes (MBCs) swinging towards them aided by allies as Manjhi and Paswan.

The intention here is not to lapse into another electoral prediction. But, challenge a few premises - based on some of the trends that are coming to light. If voters went purely by caste considerations - Modi could never have made such a clean sweep in 2014 Lok Sabha polls. And, if indeed, there is some basis to the exit polls indicating traditional BJP voters have been lukewarm (especially in the 3rd phase - which was supposed to be BJP strongholds) - it does raise the question are voters willing to assert their voice and choice if not rising above but going beyond caste. So for the new discerning voter "Arhar (Daal)" prices take precedence over "Har-Har".

That despite the underlying rivalry and not sharing the dais in any rally - Lalu and Nitish didn't under-cut each other is because their respective constituents acted as the real glue.

In the same vein one begins to wonder - has the rural voter become much sharper not to be distracted by "manufactured" pre-poll controversies of cows and religion or promises of quotas and reservation. They have become much more realistic and wary of promises of development and governance - going by proven track record discounted for reasonable under-delivery and shortfall (2014 was perhaps - the lowest point in people's cynicism - when Modi arrived as a Messiah to sweep them of their feet. But, since then sanity has been restored). 

With improved security and better electoral administration (including holding polls in staggered phases to allow redeployment of forces) rigging has become less rampant - even if not fully eliminated - in most parts of the country to majorly affect state level results. 

Finally, technology, research and analytics have come to stay. Increasingly parties will become more sophisticate in using media - especially Social and Digital Media, Viral Word-of-Mouth campaigns and ambush strategies. BJP might have had a first mover advantage in 2014 - but such competitive edge don't last for more than one election as professionals like Prashant Kishore don't have any political loyalties and in no time many more PeeKays will be born.

Article first published in +DailyO India Today Click here to read

Are sections of the media colluding to sabotage BJP's prospects in Bihar ?

Chanakya Vs Sun Tzu in Bihar

Is Bihar going to be Delhi Redux for Modi-Amit Shah duo? Suddenly, this question has gained currency after Round 2 of Bihar polls on October 16 - much of it in Maoist infested areas, where NDA was actually expected to do better. Some media stalwarts are going to the extent of predicting a ''total rout'' for BJP.  I have been travelling widely across Bihar over the last few months - my work often taking me to villages in the interiors.

The general feedback from South east region was BJP’s showing was on expected lines barring areas like Bhagalpur where wrong choice of candidates or in-fighting has been problematic. To balance, BJP seemed to have done well in erstwhile Communist bastions like Samastipur. Depending on who was asked about the final outcome, the answer was either a comfortable majority for NDA or a “tight fight”.

But on October 17 the Social Media went viral with speculation about BJP's certain defeat. Inferences were drawn from cancellation of Modi's rallies with the hash-tag #ModiQuitsBiharBattle trending on Twitter.  Newspapers published reports, quoting unnamed sources within the party, about BJP revising its strategy - bringing local leaders to the fore and the star duo of Modi-Shah taking a back-seat.  News of Amit Shah summoning Manohar Lal Khattar, Mahesh Sharma and Sakshi Maharaj to reprimand them for their 'beef' remarks was played up as a sign of BJP leadership's nervousness. Shatrughan Sinha's sly tweets about inner party dissensions added fuel to the fire.

What has caused this dramatic change of mood? Are these genuine reports or rumour mongering by well-oiled anti-Modi propaganda machine? I for one wouldn't rule out the latter and I think it will still be a close call. This might well change and we may witness a landslide one way or the other. But it will require an exceptionally high order of clairvoyance to write off the NDA altogether at this early juncture with 3 more rounds of polling still to go. That so many journalists and Social Media pundits are staking reputations – despite going wrong in the past - to join the chorus, smacks of a pickled agenda.

Only the politically gullible would believe that a master strategist like Amit Shah could have underestimated the challenge or importance for winning Bihar for Modi and his own political survival. If he cracked UP & Bihar so phenomenally in 2014 - he can't be one to make simplistic assumptions about Bihar's complex caste arithmetic. Yet, that does not make him infallible.

There are many parameters on which Amit Shah's strategy may have been off the mark. First, over obsession with 'win-ability' of candidates can create disaffection within. Murmurs of this were heard in the early days from people like R K Singh. Secondly, not projecting local leaders and naming a CM candidate and instead relying on one star campaigner can always be a double-edged sword. The law of diminishing returns was also bound to catch up with Modi's popularity but to what extent declaration a Bihar special package could neutralise this is a matter of conjecture. Similarly, induction of Jiten Ram Manjhi was always a gamble.

However, the bigger variable was the transferability of votes between Lalu Yadav and Nitish Kumar. There was never any doubt about the Muslim votes - but questions remain if they would split or be cast en-bloc in favour of the strongest non-NDA candidate. BJP clearly banked heavily on the positive Development and negative Jungle Raj plans.

BJP has been working on a 3 level top-down strategy. While Modi was supposed to set the agenda and create the ''wave'' at the state level - the message was expected to be carried forward by state and local leaders to the blocks and panchayats. Finally, "Booth Committees" were entrusted with the last mile mobilisation. Till a few days back - learned analysts argued how Modi had totally hijacked the discourse and Nitish was left defending his position. By all accounts, Modi's rallies were a huge draw compared to the modest crowds at Nitish' rally and at times, embarrassingly sparse gatherings of Lalu. The BJP state and local leadership were intensely campaigning in districts and blocks.

True that BJP's calculations may have gone awry. Firstly, there has been no dent in Nitish’ personal brand-equity and there is no real "anti-incumbency'' against him. Relatively, Lalu may have been discredited but for the Yadavs - Lalu may be a ''chara-chor'' but he's still one of us. ''Jungle Raj'' may be a big concern among the upper and more affluent classes - but not as much for the poor. For the overall improvement in law and order people credit Nitish. In contrast, while the impact of Mohan Bhagwat's remark, Dadri or Lalu's comment on beef eating practices is difficult to assess, these have the potential of snowballing into major factors.

A seasoned general always factors for a margin of error in strategy and is adept at doing mid-course corrections. It would be if Amit Shah doesn’t tweak his game-plan for the slog-overs. It indeed makes eminent sense not to exhaust Modi's fire-power so far ahead of the remaining 3 phases and hold the final salvos till the end - while allowing local leaders and cadres to do the ground work and build the tempo as it were. It would be prudent to do damage control and control irresponsible statements by sections within the party. But to read too much in this will be immature or motivated.

War-room managers of Nitish Kumar are entitled to deploy all legitimate means at their disposal to improve their prospects. It would indeed be a smart move if a few leaves have been taken from Sun Tzu's Book of War to spread panic among enemy ranks and outwitting the Chanakya or Amit Shah. Large sections of the mainstream media have to guard against becoming instruments of such strategy.

Article first published in +ABPLIVE Click here to read

Bihar Examination Mass Cheating Scandal - Root Cause is Underdevelopment of the State

Before you curse those caught cheating in the state’s matriculation examination, delve into the cause of the malaise.

Even as the Bihar government continues to crackdown on the cheats involved in the copying scandal during matriculation examination by arresting more than 300 across the state and realising penalty of Rs 4.16 lakh, I begin with an anecdote. I was on a work trip to Patna when a stockist of our company from Darbhanga happened to drop by at the office. On enquiring what brought him there, he told me he had come to enrol his 8-year old son at a boarding school. I went on to offer him some unsolicited advice — as is the wont of Bengalis — asking him why he was not looking at a well-known school in Varanasi belonging to the same group of institutions (Krishnamurti Foundation, Rajghat, a sister school of Rishi Valley) where my daughter had studied.

He flummoxed me by saying, “Wahan toh admission already mil chuka hai; lekin woh school sahi ‘competitive’ nahin hai… is (Patna) school se zyada IAS nikalte hain” (My son has got admission in that school already, but it is not that ‘competitive’; this one produces more IAS officer). On being asked why he was so keen that his son became an IAS, he frankly said, “Bahut izzat hai, kamai hai aur power bhi hai… aur,” he said after a little pause, somewhat coyly, “IAS ladke ka liye dahez bhi accha milta hai” (the job earns one social respect, a lot of income, power and… gets you a good amount of dowry when he is married off). I was stumped.

That is not to mean all those climbing the walls of the school were trying to help potential IAS, IFS or IPS officers. But they and their families do betray a collective societal aspiration. In a state that is economically backwards with no industry worth its name, the two primary options for employment remain kheti (farming) and naukri (jobs). As Prime Minister Narendra Modi perceptively points out, with increasingly diminishing land-holdings in villages, it is not viable to accommodate all children in the family farm. So, some are sent out in search of alternative employment. The uneducated migrate to other prosperous cities like Mumbai, Delhi and Kolkata. And, for those who stay back, and have an educational qualification, a sarkari naukri (government sector job) appears to be a low hanging fruit — either ‘purchasable’ or obtainable with some sifarish (recommendation of an influential person).

The meritorious (not just those coming from affluent families) head out for higher education outside, many getting into IITs, top engineering and medical colleges, and others gunning for MBA, going abroad or joining ‘Mission UPSC’ — from Delhi’s Hindu College Hostel or one of the many barsatis and tenements around IIT and the Munirka neighbourhood of Delhi. But, for the great many who stay back, a government job remains the only ray of hope.

This is not a phenomenon limited to Bihar alone. This is true for other BIMARU states like Madhya Pradesh (where there was the infamous employment scam, Vyapam) or West Bengal that witnesses stampede to collect application forms for government School Teachers’ Examination and that have thriving tutorial centres to prepare students for lower level government jobs. Madhya Pradesh may be relatively better off with greater industrialisation and private job creation; West Bengal has seen a massive exodus of young people both educated and ‘non-literate’ though the situation may not be as acute as in Bihar.

Put all this against the background of the poor quality of education in government schools, with truant teachers and unhygienic mid-day meals. What is the level of special assistance provided to the slow learners or students with learning disabilities like dyslexia and dyscalculia? Back-ended incentive like cash rewards for every girl-child passing the matriculation examination can, unless supported by an efficient primary and secondary education system, only aggravate the problem.

All this is not a convoluted argument to justify mass-cheating, the shameful incident that came to light last week. There is, of course, culpability of the students and parents. There is also a responsibility of the state of not providing for invigilation and security at the exam centres. Surely this is not a one-time phenomenon caught so graphically on camera this time. It must have been going on for years. But there is also a need to look beyond the symptoms. One can’t raise the bar without building the capability to cross it. Otherwise, those put under test will, in desperation, use unfair means to cross the seemingly insurmountable hurdle.

The answer, unfortunately, can’t be instantly given. Value systems won’t change overnight, especially if it requires a major social transformation. The long-term solution is economic development of Bihar, for which industry, infrastructure and wealth-generation activities have to come along with improved governance.Nitish Kumar had come to power with the promise of “Surakshit Bihar” (safe Bihar) and “Vikas” (development). Sadly, he has now strayed from that path and set the clock back by at least a decade.

To restart the wheels of progress, he has to swallow some of his ego and prejudices. He did that partly by tying up with old political Lalu, but for a misguided intent and with a wrong person. Nitish Kumar must eschew caste politics, establish law and order and curb corruption with the sincerity and determination he had displayed in his earlier two terms as chief minister.

Another positive step would be not to act a spoilsport on the Land Acquisition Bill, which, if anything, is required to kick-start growth in states like Bihar. Not as he has been asking for — more central dole to dig deeper holes of MGNREGA, jeopardising the future of a self-sufficient and progressive Bihar.

Article first published in Swarajya Magazine (Click here to read)

Is the Modi-Shah juggernaut losing steam?

Let’s start closer to (my) home –Kolkata.

Since Amit Shah’s Burdwan Rally on January  20^th there is visible slow down in BJP’s aggression in West Bengal.  The announcement of big names crossing over from Trinamool and Congress to BJP has  been put on indefinite hold.  Even accepting – the government in Delhi has no control over the affairs of the CBI – the investigation seems to have cooled off a little with the release of one MP and the “non-arrest” of  Mukul Roy. It is quite likely that Madan Mitra, the other minister in custody, will also be soon out on bail – taking the heat off Mamata Banerjee.  The BJP has also been studiously cautious in associating with Roy or responding to his overtures.

Although the TMC MP’s have been belligerent in Parliament, BJP’s response to their shenanigans  have been somewhat muted with at least one instance of Modi trying to reach out to the Trinamool MPs during his reply to the debate on the President’s Address in Rajya Sabha.  The Mamata – Modi meeting that followed – despite the stiff body-language  caught on camera – was also significant. It’s possible that –  strategy has been recalibrated keeping in mind the challenges of the Budget Session – with several key legislations on the anvil.  But, it also can’t be ruled out that the moderation is also an outcome of a more realistic assessment of BJP’s immediate prospects in West Bengal after the recent Lok-Sabha and Assembly By-polls  (further corroborated by Opinion Polls for the forthcoming Kolkata Municipality Elections – where BJP is finding it difficult to even mobilise candidates). Now one hears PM  Modi may be visiting Kolkata soon to follow through on his meeting with Mamata Banerjee in Delhi.

In next door Bihar – one observes a similar slackening of tempo. First, the Manjhi experiment went horribly wrong. Although the Nitish – Lalu flirtation has fallen just short of consummation – it has brought both of them back to the centre-stage commanding greater share of voice and TRP.  At the same time – BJP leaders like Sushil Modi seem to have gone into hibernation. Other than an occasional sound-byte from  Shahnawaz Hussain  (Ravi Shankar Prasad usually speaks on  other issues – in any case his mass base in the state is questionable), Rajiv Rudy or Giriraj Singh – rest of BJP stalwarts from Bihar are deafeningly silent and happy to listen to Sharad Yadav holding forth on the relative physical attributes of women on  either side of the Vindhyas.

While it is undeniable that the Delhi rout was a major jolt for  Modi-Shah leadership – mercifully AAP’s own internecine war has shifted the focus from it and hopefully the initial embarrassment in Jammu and Kashmir has been – at least for the time being  – contained.  The news from old BJP ruled states like Chattisgarh and Madhya Pradesh are not much to write home about – with both Raman Singh and Shivraj Singh Chouhan under the shadow of scams (PDS and Recruitment) in their respective states.  The newly formed ministries in Jharkhand and Maharshtra are still settling down with their own set of challenges.  With Naveen Patnaik still going strong  Odisha remains largely out of bound for BJP at the moment.

It is conceivable that Modi-Shah have tactically decided to save the powder for another day while fighting more important battles in Parliament.  But, the overwhelming impression is their juggernaut has been stalled on its track.  While Modi can definitely chose his battles in a 5 year race – to win the war he would need to get the economy moving quickly.

PS: Since the article was published - the Government managed to get the crucial Coal and Mining Reforms Bills passed in the Rajya Sabha with the support of most major political parties - except Congress, the Left (CPIM + CPI) with the JDU and RJD staging a walk-out. However, the fate of the Land Acquisition Bill still hangs in balance.

Article first published in Swarajya Magazine (click here for original link)

The Winner takes it all..and...'Ekla Chalo Re'

So, Modi is all set to be "crowned" tomorrow - after what may be called a watershed - election. It turned out to be a real "The Winner Takes It All" victory - stunning the whole nation.

In a first of sorts, Heads of Government from all SAARC countries, Maldives and Mauritius will attend the ceremony along with over 2500 Indian dignitaries. Conspicuous by her absence will be the Chief Minister of West Bengal Mamata Banerjee.  Earlier it was reported, she had advised all newly elected MPs of her party to stay away from the function. But, on second thoughts - perhaps, she is deputing two trusted emissaries - Amit Mitra, Finance Minister of West Bengal, and Mukul Roy, General Secretary of Trinamool Congress, to represent her at the event.

Most people argue, Mamata Banerjee could have shown more grace on an occasion - which is as much about Modi as it is a celebration of Indian Democracy. But, then - those who know Mamata intimately would say - she's not given to hypocrisy. After the out-pour of bad-blood and vitriol during the election campaign it might have appeared duplicitous to her core-constituents - if she were to give an impression of "all is fair in love and war".


If Modi and BJP's victory at the centre was cataclysmic - Trinamool's performance in West Bengal was no less phenomenal. Insiders reveal, the party's own estimates were nowhere close to 34 seats. In the best case scenario, they hoped to get 26-28 seats. That the Left would be decimated to such an extent was even beyond their expectation. A young Rajya Sabha MP of Trinamool told me, even if allegations of rigging and intimidation are true - it could have given them an additional 4 or 5 seats at best but not such a sweeping mandate. While just like Modi nationally - in West Bengal people voted for Mamata, much of the credit behind the voter mobilisation goes to the organisation man - Mukul Roy whom, some are calling the Amit Shah of Bengal, he shared as an aside. (That begs the question, couldn't the same 'victory' have been achieved without violence and bloodshed that sullied the name of the state - a hark back to the dark days of 'cadre-raj')

The Left in India has lost in relevance - but in West Bengal they've also lost the will to win. The ground has shifted from beneath their feet - TMC has pulled the rug as it were. It was sad to see giants like Basudeb Acharya - with tremendous people connect reduced to dust by a once glamourous diva, now well past her "use by" date (if I'm permitted a sexist dig).  The proverbial grass-root organisation of the CPIM has simply evaporated into thin air and they are left making the same accusations against the ruling party as one used to hear about them till a decade ago.

But, the real story of these elections - even in West Bengal - is the BJP. Many have been intrigued by the disproportionate amount of time Modi devoted to West Bengal during the campaign. Modi held some 7 - 8 rallies in the state. Since, a Gujarati views everything in terms of ROI (Return on Investment) -  the dividend was certainly poor if measured in terms of seats alone. However, if one delves a little deeper another sub-plot emerges. The BJP's vote-share in these elections increased from 6.15 % to 16.8 % precariously close to the Left's 22.7 % and far ahead of the Congress' 9.6 %. In 30 of the 42 Lok Sabha constituencies BJP emerged as the No 2 party. In 20 assembly constituencies, including some very high-profile ones, BJP were ahead (Read article).

What does this mean ? If the Modi Government at the centre stays on course and keeps alive the promise of development BJP may well consolidate its strength and emerge as the main Opposition party in the next Assembly Elections (Read earlier post). In his speeches, Modi's main target was the young audience of 18-28. There is no reason to believe - Bengali youth will think very differently from the rest of the country and not opt for development and promise of a brighter future.

It is here that one regrets the "hostility" trap Bengal falls into with successive government over the last 50 years, for which the state (and, more importantly, the younger generation) had to pay dearly. This was one chance for us to get back to the mainstream of national politics - but we once again seem to have missed the boat. There were subtle overtures made by Modi in the beginning which were rudely rebuffed due to local political compulsions (Read Vote Bank Politics is here to stay) .

But, it may not be too late yet to work out a tacit 'understanding' - without adopting a posture of aggressive opposition. Modi is a pragmatic politician, who looks at the longer term. Except for some unforeseen catastrophe, he is here to stay and he knows - that if not today - he might need the Trinamool's support in future and, therefore, be willing to play along. While we may have the example of the much vaunted "Gujarat Model where growth and development was allegedly achieved without support from the centre , we have also seen, in these elections, the case of Bihar, where Nitish spent 10 years fighting in vain for Bihar's "special status". Finally, when he failed to deliver on the promise of development - the voters shifted en-masse away from his party. 

Therefore, "Ekla Chalo Re" may not be the best anthem for all times.....