Life after Bihar for Modi Bhakts

Bhakts flummoxed as BJP leadership goes MIA

Article first published in +ABPLIVE Click here to read

If 2014 was the best of times, undoubtedly this is the worst of times for Modi "Bhakts". I define "Bhakts" - as people who had unconditionally reposed their faith in Narendra Modi to pull the country out of the woods. It's not that the more rational ones among them (an I would like to include myself among them)  - weren't apprehensive of a setback in Bihar. But they hadn't bargained for a total rout. The so called "revolt of the elders" came as an under the  radar missile - which took everyone by surprise - even as the BJP Parliamentary Board was in a huddle trying to find its feet after the drubbing. It was palpable the leadership was flummoxed and didn't know how to react.

At this crucial juncture, Prime Minister Modi hopped onto Air India One for his London and Turkey outing. The 'narrative' was left pretty much for the media to run - with top leaders withdrawing almost into a shell. It wasn't clear who was in-charge in the PM's absence both in the government and party - except for a few feeble interventions by Jaitley and low key public appearances by the now chastised Shah. If there were backroom parleys happening for damage control - there were no signs of it outside.

Opposition as stunned as BJP

Meanwhile, among news on the process of government formation in Bihar and stories about how Nitish with his come-on-the-rebound whizkid Prashant Kishore had pulled off the impossible - one could sense a new surge of energy in Congress - as was visible in Sonia Gandhi's scathing attack on Modi in her Nehru Anniversary speeches. The rest of the opposition seemed to be in an equal state of shock (albeit, a pleasant one) trying to unravel the potential ramification - of both the Bihar Verdict and BJP's internal "mutiny" - on future political configurations. In short, the Bihar outcome had stunned the entire political system of the country.

Throughout "Bhakts" remained steadfastly committed to Modi even as a large section of his core constituency had begun to either show signs of disenchantment or beginning to slide from frustration to anger  (not just those who had bought the dream of "Acche Din" - but also the middle-class and business community that had en-bloc shifted their weight towards BJP in the expectation of economic revival and development). The "believers" continued to bet on Modi - delivering despite odds and possible setbacks in elections. As the writing on the electoral bill-boards began to light-up - they still hoped against hope - it won't be a wash-out for the BJP. But, that was not to be. Till the Bihar results  - many were expediently shifting blame on some of Modi's colleagues - like Jaitley - and a reluctant bureaucracy for the government's inability to match its words with delivery. But, suddenly they find themselves at a loss on who to hold accountable - except the "Supreme Duo".

Mixed Signals

Meanwhile, mixed signals continue to emanate from different echelons of the party and the RSS. It is anybody's guess as to where the RSS stands on the "Old Guard Revolt" - just as one doesn't know if there has been any plain-speaking with Mohan Bhagwat on his ill-timed anti-reservation "bomb-shell" that was undoubtedly the tipping point of the polls. Then there is also this intriguing silence over Shatrughan Sinha and other disgruntled elements, who have been berating the leadership with impunity. One is not sure how the Sangh leadership  is viewing Amit Shah - though Nitin Gadkari - Nagpur's blue-eyed boy - has risen to his defence. The dynamics at play inside the "parivaar" are far too complex for the simple-minded "Bhakt" to fathom.

Hardik and Prashant the new kids on the block 

Reams are being written offering suggestions on how Modi needs to reboot the party and  government - if he wants at least a fighting chance for the remaining 3 and half-year of tenure without dreaming of a second term at this stage. But, for the ordinary Bhakt the calculations have gone awry. If Bihar was a disaster it is unlikely that UP and West Bengal can be any better. Everyone is skeptical about the prospects in Punjab - where BJP has to carry the dead-weight of the Badals. The pessimists are also worried about the outcome of the Gujarat Municipal Polls - with the wild-card entry of Hardik Patel in Big Boss' house.  So, Modi-Shah's plan of reducing dependence on problematic allies like Shiv-Sena will have to wait and they will have to continue to do off-line trade-offs with NDA fence-sitters like NCP and Samajwadi Party. 

Having tasted blood as it were - the Opposition, especially the Congress, will become more strident inside and outside the Parliament. With their disruptive mindset - it is unlikely they will get down to deal making on important legislations even if Modi were to descend from his high horse. If Sonia Gandhi can have her way - she would like to see Modi dislodged much earlier than 2019. We are already seeing the new darling on the block Prashant Kishore doing his own round of "Chai-pe-Charcha" with leaders of non-BJP parties including the Congress and Arun Shourie - the self-appointed representative of BJP's Club of Octogenarians.

An enigma called Modi

The answer to these conundrums can come only from one man - an enigma called Modi. So, far he has been keeping a brave front. He spiritedly campaigned in Bihar till the last day - when he would have surely known from internal  assessments that the party was heading for a defeat. In Britain and the G20 summit - he did not betray any erosion of confidence or frayed nerves in his body language - that was being keenly watched with a telescope by all. Can he turn the tables again on his opponents - the next few months running up to the Budget Session should tell. Till then - the Bhakts will have to make do with far fewer hours of sleep just like their "Dear Leader" - who reportedly sleeps for only 4 hours in a day.

BJP Old Guard Revolt

In this rebellion do we have the seeds of a BJP (M) in the making - a la Congress (I) of Indira - when she took on the "syndicate"

Article first published in +DailyO India Today  Click here to read reproduced here

On last Sunday evening in Delhi, I was the solitary "mourner" at an impromptu bash in the house of a senior journalists in Delhi, who were celebrating their accurate prediction of the Bihar results. I agreed to be included since alcohol helps as much to uplift the spirit as it does to dissolve sorrow. Somewhere down a few pegs - an easy equilibrium is struck - when both sets hit the same wavelength. So after a few drinks - we were discussing how knives will soon be out in BJP. Leading commentators also wrote to the same effect ("Modi to face the heat" or "the bumpy road to 2019") But, little did one expect such quick "viagra-fication" of the old guard (average age 82).

Of course, as expected Shourie was the first to get off the block. While it may have been clear he was being the spokesman of a certain section - who from "sour grapes" turned into the "we told you so" rabbis - few did anticipate that he was the forerunner for the octogenarian band to follow. Whether planned or coincidental - the timing couldn't have been more opportune with Modi taking off to the UK - a visit if cancelled he would appear like a tin-pot dictator who had to return home to quell a rebellion.

Though irony may die a thousand deaths - Congress would be naive not to capitalize on the developments - whether with Chidambaram talking of fireworks before Diwali ( though Tamil Diwali was over this morning) or Surjewalla complimenting the BJP "elders" for speaking out what the nation already knew but was afraid to say. One cannot also grudge the "liberal" detractors of BJP rejoicing over what could potentially be the fall of the pin-striped chaiwallah.

Without taking off on "conspiracy theories" - which may not be entirely unfounded - that would have required a master scriptwriter with multiple producers, directors and actors - it may be said there was a well laid out plan to waylay Modi - which he and Amit Shah (under Jaitley's ill-advised counsel) naively walked into. If Advani & Co were genuine well-wishers of the party - they wouldn't have taken the battle public even while building pressure internally for some heads to roll. But, to seek the replacement of a General immediately after a defeat or a Captain after losing a series - smacks of malice and destructive intentions.

Hopefully, a person as astute as Modi - with his own network of intelligence - would not have been unaware of the forces working against him - though he might have erred on the timing and intensity of the strike. So, what are the options before him ? I would appear that so far - in the last 18 months he has tried to balance and accommodate various interest groups within the "Parivar" hoping that they would sort themselves out over time. It doesn't require supra-mental powers to decipher Modi would have banked heavily on the Bihar results for putting to rest opposition both outside and within the part - a miscalculation that tragically backfired for which he has only himself, Amit Shah and, perhaps to some extent, Jaitley to blame. So what are the options ahead of him ? Seeking a compromise - and coming to an understanding with RSS and other hostile groups within the party may not be a solution. 

Modi one reckons is a "lambe daur ka ghoda". He has bided his time to become the PM and he isn't a politician in a hurry. So, in the short term, he has to play for high stakes - like an Indira Gandhi who took on the "syndicate" and gambled with splitting the party. This might mean his going back to the people - even with the possibility of losing the polls to a hurriedly cobbled-up Mahagathbandhan. But, then he would every chance of making a comeback with a vengeance - having purged the BJP of its baggage and dead-weight (be it of RSS or the "Old-Guard") - building from scratch a true Right wing party tailored for modern times and modern challenges.

The importance of being Arun Jaitley

Or How Arun Jaitley could be Modi's Pranab Mukherjee

Only those could have doubted Arun Jaitley's emergence as the foremost ally of Modi in the government - despite his own defeat in Amritsar - who thought after leading the party to such a stupendous victory Modi would hand-over the Prime Minister-ship on a platter to Advani or some other leader of RSS' choice. Jaitley is one national BJP leader who stood by Modi unwaveringly even when others had their moments of doubt or difference. He was the only one who had publicly predicted that the groundswell of grass-root workers will force the hand of the RSS leadership to accept Modi as the PM candidate. He was never seen to hedge his bets for a 'what if' (BJP fell short of the magic number and needed support of former NDA allies like JDU) scenario -unlike some others as Rajnath Singh. Therefore, Jaitley's rise to the unofficial No 2 in Modi's cabinet shouldn't have come as a surprise to anyone.

Modi being new to Lutyens' Delhi (and Parliament itself - being a first time MP) - by his own admission - needed someone to chaperone him through the labyrinths of power corridors and bureaucracy. None could have been better suited than Jaitley for that role. A true blue Delhiite - urbane and moderate face of the BJP with friends across parties and media. His credibility quotient was high nationally and integrity untainted to the public eye. Arun Jaitley could easily have been Narendra Modi's Pranab Mukherjee (whom, Arun Shourie had once called the fulcrum of the UPA government) - a man for all seasons, trouble shooter, negotiator and interface with the opposition.

But, the acute talent shortage in Modi's cabinet (some of it self-imposed one may argue) - got Jaitley too embroiled in the running of the government as Modi's principal strategist. This gave rise to the now famous "Trimurti", as they are sometimes called, of Modi, Jaitley and  Amit Shah. While Shah was, understandably, entrusted with all party affairs, Jaitley became Modi's principal sounding board and advisor on policy matters, especially economic issues. (There is, of course, the invisible 4th pillar - the PMO - where the other triumvirate of Doval, Nripen Mishra and Jaishankar rule - focusing on National Security and foreign affairs – though Arun Shourie calls it the ‘weakest ever PMO’).

Even without even going into a critical evaluation of Jaitley's performance as a Minister - essentially Finance, which has been his primary charge - it may be said that being involved too closely both with strategy and implementation has come in the way of his delivery. This is characterized by a number of avoidable confrontations and stand-offs (such as with the RBI Governor), climb-downs or roll backs (MNC Retrospective Taxation) and U-turns (new IT Returns form). The mother of all setbacks was, of course, the Land Acquisition Bill and the GST could be awaiting a similar fate. Being too close to these decisions - and in some cases the owner or author himself - didn't allow him the much required maneuvering space to find a political solution - which, ironically, is supposed to be his forte.

Though not exactly in the league of his bête-noire Kapil Sibal's "zero loss" theories - much of his explanation and defense on the Black Money issue (arguably, the biggest credibility sucker of the Modi government – that earned it the tag of a “Jumla Sarkar’’) was seen to be bordering on sophistry and glib talk.

Though Jaitley is not officially handling the Law Ministry – he is generally known to be the Government’s principal legal advisor. The choice of Mukul Rohatgi – his close friend of many years – as the Attorney General is credited to him.  Between the 2 of them – they have to share the burden of the Governments loss of face in the NJAC issue – which even a lay observer of the court proceeding had seen coming from the hostile stance of the bench right from the beginning of the hearing compounded by the very aggressive stand of the government. Further, Jaitley’s reactions to the order made it appear like a personal defeat – which may not have helped to soothe the raw nerves of the judiciary and given fodder his detractors.  Further, as suggested by one respected commentator, it indicates the judiciary will not fight shy of taking head-on a government elected by a huge popular mandate.

Though they would all be loathe to admit it in public – friends of Jaitley (and, he has many) from the industry have been disappointed with him more than even the PM for the slow pace of reforms – because it was on him they had counted most to kick start the economy. Both, his budgets were underwhelming – but that would easily have been overlooked if reforms took off. Instead – the Prime Minister has had to lean on populist social welfare schemes like Jan Dhan Yojna,  Atal Pension Yojna and Insurance Schemes the results of which will take years to be palpably perceived. Whereas delays in release of MNREGA payments and agricultural subsidies – no doubt necessitated by prudent fiscal management – felt immediately and also exploited by the opposition. The Foreign Black Money amnesty scheme (netting only Rs 3700 crores) was a damp squib. Threats of dire action and reinvigorated ED raids may have lost him a few admirers in the business community.

Holding dual charge of Finance and Defence must have been taxing – taking away focus from both (and, that was also the time, Jaitley was not keeping good health requiring surgery). Delays in some crucial appointments (Chief Economic Advisor, Chairman Niti Aayog) would not have helped Jaitley to fast-forward the government’s economic agenda.  Induction of Jayant Sinha as MOS Finance could – perhaps – have happened earlier to relieve him of some load.

But, perhaps, Jaitley’s toughest challenge has been managing the communication strategy of the government. Though he took on the I&B portfolio and by default the role of the principal spokesperson of the government - presumably to prevent motor-mouth ministers and MPs – he has been less than successful in handling the media. Jaitley enjoys excellent personal rapport with the Lutyen’s media – particularly the English TV channel star anchors. But, this doesn’t extend to the vernacular and regional media. Besides, good media relationship does not always make for effective media management. His junior ministers in I&B are inexperienced. He for one should have insisted that the PM doesn’t keep the Media Advisor’s office vacant and, if necessary, brought in the international agency who had reportedly handled Modi’s election campaign as a consultant.

As someone – whom obviously the Prime Minister not only trusts but also, presumably, listens to _ Jaitley should counsel him to increase both the width and depth of talent by inducting more technocrats and competent but savvy politicians (like Nitin Gadkari, Piyush Goyal) into his team. The latter are necessary not only to manage the external environment but also work with the bureaucratic red-tape – that can otherwise trip the best of Ministers as Suresh Prabhu and Manohar Parrikar are learning at their own cost. This would give Jaitley the time, space and – most importantly – distance to do what he likes best – strategize and back channel management – a la Pranab Babu – preparing himself for the coveted role of being the logical successor of Modi in good time.

Article first published in +ABP NEWS Click here to read