Life after Bihar for Modi Bhakts

Bhakts flummoxed as BJP leadership goes MIA

Article first published in +ABPLIVE Click here to read

If 2014 was the best of times, undoubtedly this is the worst of times for Modi "Bhakts". I define "Bhakts" - as people who had unconditionally reposed their faith in Narendra Modi to pull the country out of the woods. It's not that the more rational ones among them (an I would like to include myself among them)  - weren't apprehensive of a setback in Bihar. But they hadn't bargained for a total rout. The so called "revolt of the elders" came as an under the  radar missile - which took everyone by surprise - even as the BJP Parliamentary Board was in a huddle trying to find its feet after the drubbing. It was palpable the leadership was flummoxed and didn't know how to react.

At this crucial juncture, Prime Minister Modi hopped onto Air India One for his London and Turkey outing. The 'narrative' was left pretty much for the media to run - with top leaders withdrawing almost into a shell. It wasn't clear who was in-charge in the PM's absence both in the government and party - except for a few feeble interventions by Jaitley and low key public appearances by the now chastised Shah. If there were backroom parleys happening for damage control - there were no signs of it outside.

Opposition as stunned as BJP

Meanwhile, among news on the process of government formation in Bihar and stories about how Nitish with his come-on-the-rebound whizkid Prashant Kishore had pulled off the impossible - one could sense a new surge of energy in Congress - as was visible in Sonia Gandhi's scathing attack on Modi in her Nehru Anniversary speeches. The rest of the opposition seemed to be in an equal state of shock (albeit, a pleasant one) trying to unravel the potential ramification - of both the Bihar Verdict and BJP's internal "mutiny" - on future political configurations. In short, the Bihar outcome had stunned the entire political system of the country.

Throughout "Bhakts" remained steadfastly committed to Modi even as a large section of his core constituency had begun to either show signs of disenchantment or beginning to slide from frustration to anger  (not just those who had bought the dream of "Acche Din" - but also the middle-class and business community that had en-bloc shifted their weight towards BJP in the expectation of economic revival and development). The "believers" continued to bet on Modi - delivering despite odds and possible setbacks in elections. As the writing on the electoral bill-boards began to light-up - they still hoped against hope - it won't be a wash-out for the BJP. But, that was not to be. Till the Bihar results  - many were expediently shifting blame on some of Modi's colleagues - like Jaitley - and a reluctant bureaucracy for the government's inability to match its words with delivery. But, suddenly they find themselves at a loss on who to hold accountable - except the "Supreme Duo".

Mixed Signals

Meanwhile, mixed signals continue to emanate from different echelons of the party and the RSS. It is anybody's guess as to where the RSS stands on the "Old Guard Revolt" - just as one doesn't know if there has been any plain-speaking with Mohan Bhagwat on his ill-timed anti-reservation "bomb-shell" that was undoubtedly the tipping point of the polls. Then there is also this intriguing silence over Shatrughan Sinha and other disgruntled elements, who have been berating the leadership with impunity. One is not sure how the Sangh leadership  is viewing Amit Shah - though Nitin Gadkari - Nagpur's blue-eyed boy - has risen to his defence. The dynamics at play inside the "parivaar" are far too complex for the simple-minded "Bhakt" to fathom.

Hardik and Prashant the new kids on the block 

Reams are being written offering suggestions on how Modi needs to reboot the party and  government - if he wants at least a fighting chance for the remaining 3 and half-year of tenure without dreaming of a second term at this stage. But, for the ordinary Bhakt the calculations have gone awry. If Bihar was a disaster it is unlikely that UP and West Bengal can be any better. Everyone is skeptical about the prospects in Punjab - where BJP has to carry the dead-weight of the Badals. The pessimists are also worried about the outcome of the Gujarat Municipal Polls - with the wild-card entry of Hardik Patel in Big Boss' house.  So, Modi-Shah's plan of reducing dependence on problematic allies like Shiv-Sena will have to wait and they will have to continue to do off-line trade-offs with NDA fence-sitters like NCP and Samajwadi Party. 

Having tasted blood as it were - the Opposition, especially the Congress, will become more strident inside and outside the Parliament. With their disruptive mindset - it is unlikely they will get down to deal making on important legislations even if Modi were to descend from his high horse. If Sonia Gandhi can have her way - she would like to see Modi dislodged much earlier than 2019. We are already seeing the new darling on the block Prashant Kishore doing his own round of "Chai-pe-Charcha" with leaders of non-BJP parties including the Congress and Arun Shourie - the self-appointed representative of BJP's Club of Octogenarians.

An enigma called Modi

The answer to these conundrums can come only from one man - an enigma called Modi. So, far he has been keeping a brave front. He spiritedly campaigned in Bihar till the last day - when he would have surely known from internal  assessments that the party was heading for a defeat. In Britain and the G20 summit - he did not betray any erosion of confidence or frayed nerves in his body language - that was being keenly watched with a telescope by all. Can he turn the tables again on his opponents - the next few months running up to the Budget Session should tell. Till then - the Bhakts will have to make do with far fewer hours of sleep just like their "Dear Leader" - who reportedly sleeps for only 4 hours in a day.

BJP Old Guard Revolt

In this rebellion do we have the seeds of a BJP (M) in the making - a la Congress (I) of Indira - when she took on the "syndicate"

Article first published in +DailyO India Today  Click here to read reproduced here

On last Sunday evening in Delhi, I was the solitary "mourner" at an impromptu bash in the house of a senior journalists in Delhi, who were celebrating their accurate prediction of the Bihar results. I agreed to be included since alcohol helps as much to uplift the spirit as it does to dissolve sorrow. Somewhere down a few pegs - an easy equilibrium is struck - when both sets hit the same wavelength. So after a few drinks - we were discussing how knives will soon be out in BJP. Leading commentators also wrote to the same effect ("Modi to face the heat" or "the bumpy road to 2019") But, little did one expect such quick "viagra-fication" of the old guard (average age 82).

Of course, as expected Shourie was the first to get off the block. While it may have been clear he was being the spokesman of a certain section - who from "sour grapes" turned into the "we told you so" rabbis - few did anticipate that he was the forerunner for the octogenarian band to follow. Whether planned or coincidental - the timing couldn't have been more opportune with Modi taking off to the UK - a visit if cancelled he would appear like a tin-pot dictator who had to return home to quell a rebellion.

Though irony may die a thousand deaths - Congress would be naive not to capitalize on the developments - whether with Chidambaram talking of fireworks before Diwali ( though Tamil Diwali was over this morning) or Surjewalla complimenting the BJP "elders" for speaking out what the nation already knew but was afraid to say. One cannot also grudge the "liberal" detractors of BJP rejoicing over what could potentially be the fall of the pin-striped chaiwallah.

Without taking off on "conspiracy theories" - which may not be entirely unfounded - that would have required a master scriptwriter with multiple producers, directors and actors - it may be said there was a well laid out plan to waylay Modi - which he and Amit Shah (under Jaitley's ill-advised counsel) naively walked into. If Advani & Co were genuine well-wishers of the party - they wouldn't have taken the battle public even while building pressure internally for some heads to roll. But, to seek the replacement of a General immediately after a defeat or a Captain after losing a series - smacks of malice and destructive intentions.

Hopefully, a person as astute as Modi - with his own network of intelligence - would not have been unaware of the forces working against him - though he might have erred on the timing and intensity of the strike. So, what are the options before him ? I would appear that so far - in the last 18 months he has tried to balance and accommodate various interest groups within the "Parivar" hoping that they would sort themselves out over time. It doesn't require supra-mental powers to decipher Modi would have banked heavily on the Bihar results for putting to rest opposition both outside and within the part - a miscalculation that tragically backfired for which he has only himself, Amit Shah and, perhaps to some extent, Jaitley to blame. So what are the options ahead of him ? Seeking a compromise - and coming to an understanding with RSS and other hostile groups within the party may not be a solution. 

Modi one reckons is a "lambe daur ka ghoda". He has bided his time to become the PM and he isn't a politician in a hurry. So, in the short term, he has to play for high stakes - like an Indira Gandhi who took on the "syndicate" and gambled with splitting the party. This might mean his going back to the people - even with the possibility of losing the polls to a hurriedly cobbled-up Mahagathbandhan. But, then he would every chance of making a comeback with a vengeance - having purged the BJP of its baggage and dead-weight (be it of RSS or the "Old-Guard") - building from scratch a true Right wing party tailored for modern times and modern challenges.

Bihar Verdict - a Business Manager's view of what went wrong in Modi-Shah's game-plan

Never wear a suit more expensive than your boss'

(first published in +ABP NEWS )

Called up my Dad - recently turned 85 - to check his reaction on Bihar results. He quoted from Browning's Patriot "It was Roses, Roses all the way.....18 months ago...........". So, how did Modi and Amit Shah manage to fritter away a historic mandate in such a short time ? In the coming 24 hours and over the next several days there will be saturation analysis of what went wrong for BJP and worked in favour of the Mahagathbandhan - with many "I told you so pieces", as indeed epitaphs for Modi. Therefore, leaving the politics aside for the pundits let us spend a few minutes on the faulty mechanics and management of the BJP campaign.

There is no way Modi and Amit Shah could have underestimated the importance and challenge of Bihar. In fact, it is believed that lot of decisions of the government were taken (or hard calls and aggressive reforms were withheld for that matter) with the Bihar elections in mind - not just the Rs 1.25 lakh crore package declared just before the polls. It was apparent that, the government was banking on the Bihar Polls (followed by UP and Bengal next year) to shore up its strength in the Rajya Sabha for getting many crucial legislation through.

It may be argued that, the media and chattering classes had turned comprehensively against Modi and rooting for it to bite dust - but that was something Modi-Shah duo should have anticipated. They had successfully countered a more hostile media in the run up to the Lok sabha Polls - so where did their act fall apart this time around. It is easy to cook up conspiracy theories (and some of it may not be entirely unfounded) but again that is the job of seasoned campaigners - especially if they are from the ruling establishment - to tackle. How - therefore - did they lose the Midas touch ?

Right from day one - Modi government's handling of the media has been callous. What appeared deliberately calibrated (for reasons inexplicable - except, perhaps, for past grudges and arrogance  of winning the election 'despite them') at the start soon turned out to be plain incompetence. Last year - exactly at this time - one may recall, Modi made a feeble attempt to thaw the ice at BJP's "Diwali Party" - which was a heady selfie "kiss and make-up" moment for journalists - even those who had been critical of him in the past. But, that's where it ended. Somewhere, due to the "We know best" syndrome that afflicts this government - they seem to have dispensed with the professional help, that Modi-Shah were rumoured to have used for the Lok Sabha polls, just like they jettisoned Shah's own discovery - Prashant Kishor, whom Nitish was quick to pick up. Instead, Media Relations were left largely to someone like Arun Jaitley - who may be friendly with certain sections of the media (largely in the English speaking Lutyens' circuit - but an outsider for the vernacular and regional sphere) but isn't exactly a "media manager" - in the way, say an Ahmed Patel, of the Congress is.

In a recent piece in another publication, the author had discussed how "fist mover advantage" is short-lived in a competitive world - where people are quick to "copy with pride". Therefore, what has worked in the past - whether in Gujarat or the Lok Sabha Polls - loses its edge over time unless re-sharpened and re-engineered periodically.

But, the bigger task for any leader or manager is to manage expectations of stakeholders. here, Modi seems to have developed a disconnect between what he considered important for the electorate and what they had expected to see on the ground. Any new leader, need some quick wins to establish his or her credibility. This is where Modi failed miserably - partly due to the opposition tripping him in Parliament (like the Land Acquisition Bill and GST) but mainly due to his own misplaced priorities. Social welfare schemes like Jan Dhan Yojna and Atal Pension Yojna may be good talking points in the ramparts of the Red Fort on Independence Day - but doesn't cut much ice with people who have been spoilt by doles. So no amount of Neem quoting of Urea can take away the sting of Rs 200 /kg Arhar Daal, cut in agricultural subsidies and withholding release of MNREGA payments for fiscal prudence. Today, not only the masses expect immediate gratification - but even the young blue collared workers and business honchos are more concerned about the "here and now" rather than a handsome superannuation scheme.

Finally, as more and more professional Managers start working for Family Owned Enterprises, business schools are teaching how to balance the priorities of owners with that of the external stakeholders. Here Man Mohan Singh's job was easy - as he worked for a sole proprietor. Modi - on the other hand - has to work with a traditional HUF (Hindu United Family). A cardinal rule in business is never to wear a suit more expensive than your boss' and travel first-class when your austere malik flies "Cattle Class". Modi erred on both counts. MMS had no problem with the first - wearing the same blue turban for 10 years. Though it is alright for a Prime Minister to dress well - the blue suit everyone agrees was a little over the top.

Modi's foreign policy forays were no doubt phenomenal. But, not only that was a cause of envy for his opponents at home but also, one suspects, made some other nations wary of his meteoric rise in the international scene from being a pariah just 18 months ago. The bigger issue, however, this was the most visible part of his tenure so far - even if he was working 20 hours a day on all other fronts - which opposition could easily taunt with a rural electorate.

It is a dangerous thing - when the 'Malik - Parivaar' begins to lose confidence in the CEO - feeling he is not acting in their best interest. Since, he can't be sacked immediately - some of the family stalwarts - who want to see him fail start pulling the rug silently from under the feet. That to a large extent explains the reluctance of RSS to reign in their fringe elements or Mohan Bhagwat making irresponsible statements on the eve of crucial phases of the election. Even other members on the team - confused by mixed signals - of which way the wind is blowing begin to get disengaged though may appear to maintain a brave front outside. 

In what was always expected to be a polarised contest - driven by caste arithmetic - BJP's salvation rested on the last mile and last minute booth management by RSS cadres. It is questionable - if RSS was sincere about throwing their full weight behind Modi. Though they may not have wished to see him defeated - but perhaps a little mauled. It's another story - once the grip is loosened - the rope can slip much more than one had bargained for.

Modi and Shah need to seriously revisit their strategy going forward - if they don't want an encore of Browning's Patriot - "Thus I entered and thus I go" - not only to ensure a return in 2019 but, though harsh as it may sound, salvage the remaining 3 and half years of the current term.

For +ABP NEWS Blog please click here

Exit polls have the last laugh

Exit Polls are "Satta-Bazee" for the thinking individuals

(first published on the eve of Bihar Election Results in +DailyO India Today )

The "Ed Honcho" (as he likes to call himself) of this fine publication very perceptively tweeted - the only winners in "Exit Polls" are the pollsters themselves (paraphrased). I say, Exit Polls are 'thinking' people's Satta-Bazee. Or voyeuristic foreplay before the final results come in (no pun in that). For, Media, of course, it is a TRP generating machine - that makes armchair psephologists with 3 days shelf-life. Having burnt their fingers many times - many channels and newspapers now resort to quoting multiple surveys (including those of competitors) to hedge their bets (Heads I win, Tails you lose formula).

It has been written - how difficult it is to predict election outcomes in a country like India by polling a few thousand voters (even if techniques and methodologies have vastly improved over time). Then - there are always allegations of "fixed" polls (though the utility of it has been eliminated with the Election Commission banning polls in between phases of the election). But, in a nation hooked on to political reality shows Exit Polls still remain a draw - even if the final results turn out to be quite different.

Yet, Exit Polls can have a utility of their own if viewers and analysts don't get too obsessed with predictions. The final results can be a function of many collateral factors in our "first past the post" electoral system. These could range from last mile and last day voter mobilisation and "booth management" (often an euphemism for "booth capturing" or "rigging" as it is referred to in some parts of the country). It is here that Exit Polls can throw up insights that aren't apparent even in pre-poll surveys. Therefore, TV studio political pundits would do well not to get too carried away with the projections and instead dwell a little more on underlying messages and trends. 

It is for this the Bihar Election Exit Polls are significant - irrespective of which alliance wins and finally forms the government. There are several key lessons and learning to be taken out of the current elections - some of which can become standards for future elections in the country.

Notwithstanding how many polls predict victory of which party - it is quite clear the contest at the ground level was intensely fierce even if the final tally is wider (which may indeed be the case) than what people generally expect. Contrary to popular theory, it was BJP that started with a disadvantage if not as an underdog. Amit Shah and the BJP election strategists could not have been oblivious about the  "anti-incumbency" that had begun to weigh down Modi Government's credibility.  

BJP strategy was, therefore, based primarily on micro-planning and geo-mapping voter mobilisation by RSS cadres. The trump card was obviously Modi's star appeal. While BJP would surely have done their caste arithmetic - even after Lalu and Nitish joining hands (and with Mulayam - leaving the alliance) - they probably hoped that Lalu's "Yadav" votes won't automatically move en-masse to Nitish. Simultaneously - they would have been confident of their traditional vote bank of the Upper Castes remaining intact and Most Backward Castes (MBCs) swinging towards them aided by allies as Manjhi and Paswan.

The intention here is not to lapse into another electoral prediction. But, challenge a few premises - based on some of the trends that are coming to light. If voters went purely by caste considerations - Modi could never have made such a clean sweep in 2014 Lok Sabha polls. And, if indeed, there is some basis to the exit polls indicating traditional BJP voters have been lukewarm (especially in the 3rd phase - which was supposed to be BJP strongholds) - it does raise the question are voters willing to assert their voice and choice if not rising above but going beyond caste. So for the new discerning voter "Arhar (Daal)" prices take precedence over "Har-Har".

That despite the underlying rivalry and not sharing the dais in any rally - Lalu and Nitish didn't under-cut each other is because their respective constituents acted as the real glue.

In the same vein one begins to wonder - has the rural voter become much sharper not to be distracted by "manufactured" pre-poll controversies of cows and religion or promises of quotas and reservation. They have become much more realistic and wary of promises of development and governance - going by proven track record discounted for reasonable under-delivery and shortfall (2014 was perhaps - the lowest point in people's cynicism - when Modi arrived as a Messiah to sweep them of their feet. But, since then sanity has been restored). 

With improved security and better electoral administration (including holding polls in staggered phases to allow redeployment of forces) rigging has become less rampant - even if not fully eliminated - in most parts of the country to majorly affect state level results. 

Finally, technology, research and analytics have come to stay. Increasingly parties will become more sophisticate in using media - especially Social and Digital Media, Viral Word-of-Mouth campaigns and ambush strategies. BJP might have had a first mover advantage in 2014 - but such competitive edge don't last for more than one election as professionals like Prashant Kishore don't have any political loyalties and in no time many more PeeKays will be born.

As a political wise-crack remarked - elections mean "Gol-Maal". Let's take the "Maal" (or essence) from the surveys and leave the "gol" for the losers. To mildly twist the quote of the Prime Minister - "Elections Ayega, jayega" - aur Exit Polls be galat nikalte rahega".

Exit Polls are 'thinking people's' satta-bazee

The "Ed Honcho" (as he likes to call himself) of this fine publication very perceptively tweeted - the only winners in "Exit Polls" are the pollsters themselves (paraphrased). I say, Exit Polls are 'thinking' people's Satta-Bazee. Or voyeuristic foreplay before the final results come in (no pun in that). For, Media, of course, it is a TRP generating machine - that makes armchair psephologists with 3 days shelf-life. Having burnt their fingers many times - many channels and newspapers now resort to quoting multiple surveys (including those of competitors) to hedge their bets (Heads I win, Tails you lose formula).

It has been written - how difficult it is to predict election outcomes in a country like India by polling a few thousand voters (even if techniques and methodologies have vastly improved over time). Then - there are always allegations of "fixed" polls (though the utility of it has been eliminated with the Election Commission banning polls in between phases of the election). But, in a nation hooked on to political reality shows Exit Polls still remain a draw - even if the final results turn out to be quite different.

Yet, Exit Polls can have a utility of their own if viewers and analysts don't get too obsessed with predictions. The final results can be a function of many collateral factors in our "first past the post" electoral system. These could range from last mile and last day voter mobilisation and "booth management" (often an euphemism for "booth capturing" or "rigging" as it is referred to in some parts of the country). It is here that Exit Polls can throw up insights that aren't apparent even in pre-poll surveys. Therefore, TV studio political pundits would do well not to get too carried away with the projections and instead dwell a little more on underlying messages and trends. 

It is for this the Bihar Election Exit Polls are significant - irrespective of which alliance wins and finally forms the government. There are several key lessons and learning to be taken out of the current elections - some of which can become standards for future elections in the country.

Notwithstanding how many polls predict victory of which party - it is quite clear the contest at the ground level was intensely fierce even if the final tally is wider (which may indeed be the case) than what people generally expect. Contrary to popular theory, it was BJP that started with a disadvantage if not as an underdog. Amit Shah and the BJP election strategists could not have been oblivious about the  "anti-incumbency" that had begun to weigh down Modi Government's credibility.  

BJP strategy was, therefore, based primarily on micro-planning and geo-mapping voter mobilisation by RSS cadres. The trump card was obviously Modi's star appeal. While BJP would surely have done their caste arithmetic - even after Lalu and Nitish joining hands (and with Mulayam - leaving the alliance) - they probably hoped that Lalu's "Yadav" votes won't automatically move en-masse to Nitish. Simultaneously - they would have been confident of their traditional vote bank of the Upper Castes remaining intact and Most Backward Castes (MBCs) swinging towards them aided by allies as Manjhi and Paswan.

The intention here is not to lapse into another electoral prediction. But, challenge a few premises - based on some of the trends that are coming to light. If voters went purely by caste considerations - Modi could never have made such a clean sweep in 2014 Lok Sabha polls. And, if indeed, there is some basis to the exit polls indicating traditional BJP voters have been lukewarm (especially in the 3rd phase - which was supposed to be BJP strongholds) - it does raise the question are voters willing to assert their voice and choice if not rising above but going beyond caste. So for the new discerning voter "Arhar (Daal)" prices take precedence over "Har-Har".

That despite the underlying rivalry and not sharing the dais in any rally - Lalu and Nitish didn't under-cut each other is because their respective constituents acted as the real glue.

In the same vein one begins to wonder - has the rural voter become much sharper not to be distracted by "manufactured" pre-poll controversies of cows and religion or promises of quotas and reservation. They have become much more realistic and wary of promises of development and governance - going by proven track record discounted for reasonable under-delivery and shortfall (2014 was perhaps - the lowest point in people's cynicism - when Modi arrived as a Messiah to sweep them of their feet. But, since then sanity has been restored). 

With improved security and better electoral administration (including holding polls in staggered phases to allow redeployment of forces) rigging has become less rampant - even if not fully eliminated - in most parts of the country to majorly affect state level results. 

Finally, technology, research and analytics have come to stay. Increasingly parties will become more sophisticate in using media - especially Social and Digital Media, Viral Word-of-Mouth campaigns and ambush strategies. BJP might have had a first mover advantage in 2014 - but such competitive edge don't last for more than one election as professionals like Prashant Kishore don't have any political loyalties and in no time many more PeeKays will be born.

Article first published in +DailyO India Today Click here to read

Are sections of the media colluding to sabotage BJP's prospects in Bihar ?

Chanakya Vs Sun Tzu in Bihar

Is Bihar going to be Delhi Redux for Modi-Amit Shah duo? Suddenly, this question has gained currency after Round 2 of Bihar polls on October 16 - much of it in Maoist infested areas, where NDA was actually expected to do better. Some media stalwarts are going to the extent of predicting a ''total rout'' for BJP.  I have been travelling widely across Bihar over the last few months - my work often taking me to villages in the interiors.

The general feedback from South east region was BJP’s showing was on expected lines barring areas like Bhagalpur where wrong choice of candidates or in-fighting has been problematic. To balance, BJP seemed to have done well in erstwhile Communist bastions like Samastipur. Depending on who was asked about the final outcome, the answer was either a comfortable majority for NDA or a “tight fight”.

But on October 17 the Social Media went viral with speculation about BJP's certain defeat. Inferences were drawn from cancellation of Modi's rallies with the hash-tag #ModiQuitsBiharBattle trending on Twitter.  Newspapers published reports, quoting unnamed sources within the party, about BJP revising its strategy - bringing local leaders to the fore and the star duo of Modi-Shah taking a back-seat.  News of Amit Shah summoning Manohar Lal Khattar, Mahesh Sharma and Sakshi Maharaj to reprimand them for their 'beef' remarks was played up as a sign of BJP leadership's nervousness. Shatrughan Sinha's sly tweets about inner party dissensions added fuel to the fire.

What has caused this dramatic change of mood? Are these genuine reports or rumour mongering by well-oiled anti-Modi propaganda machine? I for one wouldn't rule out the latter and I think it will still be a close call. This might well change and we may witness a landslide one way or the other. But it will require an exceptionally high order of clairvoyance to write off the NDA altogether at this early juncture with 3 more rounds of polling still to go. That so many journalists and Social Media pundits are staking reputations – despite going wrong in the past - to join the chorus, smacks of a pickled agenda.

Only the politically gullible would believe that a master strategist like Amit Shah could have underestimated the challenge or importance for winning Bihar for Modi and his own political survival. If he cracked UP & Bihar so phenomenally in 2014 - he can't be one to make simplistic assumptions about Bihar's complex caste arithmetic. Yet, that does not make him infallible.

There are many parameters on which Amit Shah's strategy may have been off the mark. First, over obsession with 'win-ability' of candidates can create disaffection within. Murmurs of this were heard in the early days from people like R K Singh. Secondly, not projecting local leaders and naming a CM candidate and instead relying on one star campaigner can always be a double-edged sword. The law of diminishing returns was also bound to catch up with Modi's popularity but to what extent declaration a Bihar special package could neutralise this is a matter of conjecture. Similarly, induction of Jiten Ram Manjhi was always a gamble.

However, the bigger variable was the transferability of votes between Lalu Yadav and Nitish Kumar. There was never any doubt about the Muslim votes - but questions remain if they would split or be cast en-bloc in favour of the strongest non-NDA candidate. BJP clearly banked heavily on the positive Development and negative Jungle Raj plans.

BJP has been working on a 3 level top-down strategy. While Modi was supposed to set the agenda and create the ''wave'' at the state level - the message was expected to be carried forward by state and local leaders to the blocks and panchayats. Finally, "Booth Committees" were entrusted with the last mile mobilisation. Till a few days back - learned analysts argued how Modi had totally hijacked the discourse and Nitish was left defending his position. By all accounts, Modi's rallies were a huge draw compared to the modest crowds at Nitish' rally and at times, embarrassingly sparse gatherings of Lalu. The BJP state and local leadership were intensely campaigning in districts and blocks.

True that BJP's calculations may have gone awry. Firstly, there has been no dent in Nitish’ personal brand-equity and there is no real "anti-incumbency'' against him. Relatively, Lalu may have been discredited but for the Yadavs - Lalu may be a ''chara-chor'' but he's still one of us. ''Jungle Raj'' may be a big concern among the upper and more affluent classes - but not as much for the poor. For the overall improvement in law and order people credit Nitish. In contrast, while the impact of Mohan Bhagwat's remark, Dadri or Lalu's comment on beef eating practices is difficult to assess, these have the potential of snowballing into major factors.

A seasoned general always factors for a margin of error in strategy and is adept at doing mid-course corrections. It would be if Amit Shah doesn’t tweak his game-plan for the slog-overs. It indeed makes eminent sense not to exhaust Modi's fire-power so far ahead of the remaining 3 phases and hold the final salvos till the end - while allowing local leaders and cadres to do the ground work and build the tempo as it were. It would be prudent to do damage control and control irresponsible statements by sections within the party. But to read too much in this will be immature or motivated.

War-room managers of Nitish Kumar are entitled to deploy all legitimate means at their disposal to improve their prospects. It would indeed be a smart move if a few leaves have been taken from Sun Tzu's Book of War to spread panic among enemy ranks and outwitting the Chanakya or Amit Shah. Large sections of the mainstream media have to guard against becoming instruments of such strategy.

Article first published in +ABPLIVE Click here to read