Uri and after

PAY BACK PAKISTAN WITH INTEREST, BUT NOT IN RUPEES

Picture Courtesy +ABPLIVE via AFP

Article first published in +ABPLIVE (Click here)

It has been ten days since the Uri Attacks and much water – and thankfully not blood – has flown down the Indus since then. The Prime Minister made a telling speech in Kozhikode and Sushma Swaraj, arguably one of the most articulate and effective External Affairs Minister India has had in recent times, was nuanced yet firm in her statement at the United Nations General Assembly.

Love him or hate him, if there is one thing politicians can learn from Narendra Modi it is how to chose his own time and place for response without getting bullied into premature reactions. If Manmohan Singh’s silences were called deafening, in contrast Modi’s deferred responses are calibrated for impact.


Discussing war room strategies and counter-terrorism options in television studios may be good for TRP, but that is not where or how the national security agenda is decided. In fact, intelligently used, public debates can be useful decoys for diverting public attention from real work that happens behind closed doors. It also helps in dissipating public angst, jingoistic rants and motivated criticism while the Government gets on with its job.

Only the uninitiated or those motivated to mislead would peddle the thought that the Government is blind to its own lapses and will not be subjecting itself (which includes the military and intelligence establishments) to critical scrutiny after such a major setback. Indeed, there is bound to be a major reappraisal of policy. But, it would be fanciful to expect public consultation on its security and intelligence report card.

Thus after a week more or less everyone realises that declaring ‘war’ with a politically unstable and militarily irresponsible nuclear neighbour cannot be the first course of action. While covert retaliation may be considered, on the surface diplomatic isolation and raising the international ante against the terror credentials of Pakistan are, perhaps, the most pragmatic way forward.

Prime Minister Modi threw the symbolic gauntlet of “war against poverty” to Pakistan at his party’s Kozhikode conclave. Though it may have sounded like glib rhetoric to change the discourse, there was a deeper political thought beneath the Modi’s fervent plea.

By all accounts after a bountiful monsoon and massive infrastructural spends ready on a platter the economy is poised for take off. This is precisely the moment when many detractors within and outside the country will try to derail the Government’s agenda. Frittering away an opportunity of a lifetime that could potentially place India at the high table of world commerce by a military adventure is not a trap that anyone can expect Modi to fall for.

Much is written and talked about India’s over-estimation of its own clout in the global geo-political arena. If we are being taken more seriously than before by the international powers it is largely because of our growing importance in world trade. Who will understand that better than a Gujarati?

Comparisons are drawn with how America’s resident Jewish population influences its policy towards Israel. It will be some time before Indian expatriates start wielding similar sway in the US Congress but that NRIs are a rising force is there for everyone to see. Therefore, it is not without reason that Modi has been wooing them so assiduously since becoming Prime Minister.

War would have been a tempting choice for Modi if he were in the last leg of office. The world over (including in India) military offensive has been used by many leaders with waning popularity or insecure standing to consolidate their position. But Modi should have no such insecurities and, therefore, can stay the course with confidence.

That a reference to Balochistan in the Prime Minister’s Independence Day address could rattle the world, including his opponents at home, goes to show how policies are beginning to make a difference.

Many would try to spoil the party as India inches slowly but surely towards its golden hour. Some would do it deliberately and others (who have little understanding of economics and go around making populist promises of loan waiver within 24 hours of coming to power) naively.

At the end of the day even Kashmiris understand which side of their bread is buttered. That is why it is all the more important not to get distracted from the larger economic and political agenda while biding our time to pay the enemy back with compounded interest but, perhaps, in a different currency — US Dollars or Chinese Yuan, not Indian Rupees.

Tags: #army  #IndianArmy #kozhikode #Pakistan #sushma swaraj #Uri attack

Pathankot Attack

Is Pathankot Doval’s Second Kandahar?

Article First Published in +ABPLIVE (click here to read)

Just on the eve of the New Year – a retired intelligence officer who had accompanied Ajit Doval on the Kandahar rescue mission – recalled in a tweet its 15^th anniversary and what a New Year celebration it was for them on return. In sharp contrast, 2016 – opened with the Pathankot attack.

The sister publication of this channel – Ananda Bazar Patrika, the highest circulated Single Edition Daily, had a tongue-in-cheek headline “Doval-ee Doba-len Pathankot-e”. Though the nuance of the pun is lost in translation – roughly it meant: Doval “goofed up” Pathankot. A day ago – the group’s English Daily – The Telegraph, Calcutta – carried a well-researched account of how the Pathankot counter operations were mishandled and raised numerous unanswered questions over the attack and its subsequent handling. The refrain has been similar across large sections of mainstream media.

As expected in this day and age of Social Media, the cacophony of rival choirs – one singing accolades for Doval and the other running him down–filled the airwaves and choked intellectual bandwidth. The mysteries and gaffes apart – there was no doubt that Pathankot – was a phenomenal attack on a defence base, just as Mumbai 26/11 was on civilians. What set apart Pathankot even more was – the almost simultaneous assault on the Indian Consulate in Mazar-i-Sharif, Afghanistan. Discerning analysts who are not caught up in jingoistic crossfire on TV and Op-eds - were quick to pick up the distinguishing features of the latest denouement. First, the chinar-leaf of Kashmir has been dropped and now it’s a no-holds bar attack on India. There was none of the customary denials of where the attackers came from and the control station of the operations. Finally – parallel opening of the Afghan front was a loud and clear signal for India – to stay-off Pakistan’s backyard.

On the domestic front – with Doval taking most of the ire and flak – to an extent spared the Prime Minister of a frontal attack by the opposition and media. But, does this also indicate a weakening of Narendra Modi’s -“leveling” as it were – in one area where he was head and shoulder over his predecessors and contemporary Asian leaders?

In a previous article – this author had himself argued that however stage-managed and choreographed the stop-over at Lahore – was necessary to apply soothing aloe-vera over the blisters that Pakistan had surely developed after display of camaraderie in Kabul. But, as it turned out, the bon-homie with one Sharif (Nawaz) probably left the other Sharif (Army Chief, Raheel) smarting – just like Musharraf was miffed after Vajpayee’s Lahore bhai-chara.

Was there a miscalculation in choosing the hug and holding hands photo-shop moment – prompted as it might have been by common friends in  Washington - preceded by a well-publicized meeting between the two NSAs on neutral ground (Bangkok) ? Certainly – hyping it up as “unconventional” and “out of the box” diplomacy was premature. By now, both Modi and the Indian establishment should have realized that dining with Nawaz Sharif was as futile as Modi having “Chai-pe-Charcha” with Sonia Gandhi. Neither want him to succeed.

Clearly – the PMO (meaning the NSA) and the Foreign Office should have better anticipated the mood and tested the ground in Lahore before letting the Prime Minister make an unscheduled landing there. As one redoubtable commentator has pointed out –Nixon’s China Visit came after months of preparation by Kissinger.

The subsequent blabber over Pakistan’s action (which some TV anchors eloquently called “back-stabbing”) ranging from remonstrations to restraint (the ‘talks must carry on’) reveals confusion in India’s Af-Pak policy that is akin to what one sees on issues of the economy and reforms at home. Coming after the Bihar setback – as it does – it may not augur well from the Prime Minister’s standing in the balance 3 odd years of his term.

The trajectory of Modi’s tenure seems to be trailing that of Obama. First disappointments on the domestic front – followed by setbacks in foreign policy. Already one sees RSS increasing control over by appointing “Pracharaks” at the helm at many places – West Bengal, Rajasthan – now probably UP and Bihar too. Though far from being a ‘lame-duck’ Prime Minister by any stretch of imagination – there is need for some strong rear-guard action – not just to stop the slide and check the drift but recover lost ground and put Modi back in the driver’s seat once again.

But, Pathankot like Kandahar will hang around Mr. Doval’s neck like a cross for a long time to come – unless neutralized in a short time.

Breakthrough in Nepal's Madhesi Crisis

Article first published in +ABPLIVE Read here



A former Indian Ambassador to Nepal  – who had also been a High Commissioner in Bangladesh – told me once, he found it much easier to operate in Dhaka than in Kathmandu because there he didn’t have to contend with the “feudacracy” in India, who constantly try to meddle in Nepal’s affairs. By “feudacracy” he meant – the clique of erstwhile “Rajas and Maharajas” in Indian politics (especially in the Congress) who have links with Nepal by marriage. I suspect if asked now he would have also added “media-cracy”  – the dozens of op-ed writers who know what the Indian government should do in Nepal – more than South-Block and the Intelligence agencies combined.  It’s no coincidence many of them are alumni of JNU (“Marxo-cracy”).

India baiting and playing the “China Card” are the favourite pastime of the Kathmandu elite – Nepal’s version of Lutyens’ and, therefore, easily resonates  in the India International Centre circuit (which is where visiting Nepali politicians and intellectuals usually put up – unless they are state guests, when they enjoy Indian hospitality at one of the 5 star hotels). Burning effigies of Indian Prime Ministers and Ambassadors are akin to unseasonal mini-Diwali in the valley. In the current vitiated political atmosphere – one area  Modi critics were slightly short of pegs to hang him was Foreign Policy (except for his frequent foreign sojourns).  For this, the Nepal Crisis came in handy. Blame was equally apportioned between the NSA and Foreign Secretary, who it was alleged were too busy arranging the foreign trips of the PM and took their eyes off goings-on in the immediate neighbourhood.

Historically, it has been seen in case of tension with Nepal – usually the sleuths prevail over the diplomats. This is, perhaps, one instance when both establishments worked in tandem with Sushma Swaraj’s quiet backstage diplomacy. They all stuck to strategy – ignoring both political and media pressure. Gradually voices of reason started surfacing even in Nepal – just as Kathmandu high-society got busy with their winter lunches and or took off for holidays to more comfortable climes abroad and the new political top brass (Nepal has 6 Deputy PM’s) got over the initial euphoria and began to understand the futility of posturing.

It is common knowledge that the people in the valley look down upon the Madhesis with disdain and a touch of contempt – considering them to be encroachers and “half-Indians”. But, yet Nepal knows without Madhes, it can’t be a viable economic and political entity (as most industry and agriculture is concentrated in the plains, which also serves to connect different regions of the hilly terrain, which are otherwise not easily accessible). While the bogey of “Sikkimisation” of Nepal by India is routinely raised – in their hearts the wise Nepali understands the risks of “Tibetisation” are greater – if they were indulge in unmindful flirting with China.   Finally, it would be naive of them to believe India (and, indeed, other international interests) would remain aloof to what’s happening in this very strategic stretch of land.

Relations between Nepal and India will always remain “complicated”. It is said Nepalis love everything Indian except Indians.  While India can’t afford to treat Nepal as another state of India, Nepal too can’t forget the 2 countries are joined at the hips and can’t do without each other – sibling sentimentality.

Parallels are drawn with another alleged “blockade” in the late 80s – which people simplistically believe was a consequence of the spouse of a late Minister not being allowed entry in Pashupatinath Temple. This time around it was a game of ‘brinkmanship’ of who blinks first. Probably, there would have been a much earlier resolution of the impasse – had it not been such a young government with a motley leadership at the helm still trying to find their equilibrium. India did well to stay its course – with an outcome that will hopefully be remembered in the long run in a more positive light  – if not by all – a large section of Nepali people.

Also Read: It's not India Vs Nepal but Kathmandu Elite Vs Madhesis (Click here) 

                 Nepal isn't the most beautiful state of India (Click here)