Breakthrough in Nepal's Madhesi Crisis

Article first published in +ABPLIVE Read here



A former Indian Ambassador to Nepal  – who had also been a High Commissioner in Bangladesh – told me once, he found it much easier to operate in Dhaka than in Kathmandu because there he didn’t have to contend with the “feudacracy” in India, who constantly try to meddle in Nepal’s affairs. By “feudacracy” he meant – the clique of erstwhile “Rajas and Maharajas” in Indian politics (especially in the Congress) who have links with Nepal by marriage. I suspect if asked now he would have also added “media-cracy”  – the dozens of op-ed writers who know what the Indian government should do in Nepal – more than South-Block and the Intelligence agencies combined.  It’s no coincidence many of them are alumni of JNU (“Marxo-cracy”).

India baiting and playing the “China Card” are the favourite pastime of the Kathmandu elite – Nepal’s version of Lutyens’ and, therefore, easily resonates  in the India International Centre circuit (which is where visiting Nepali politicians and intellectuals usually put up – unless they are state guests, when they enjoy Indian hospitality at one of the 5 star hotels). Burning effigies of Indian Prime Ministers and Ambassadors are akin to unseasonal mini-Diwali in the valley. In the current vitiated political atmosphere – one area  Modi critics were slightly short of pegs to hang him was Foreign Policy (except for his frequent foreign sojourns).  For this, the Nepal Crisis came in handy. Blame was equally apportioned between the NSA and Foreign Secretary, who it was alleged were too busy arranging the foreign trips of the PM and took their eyes off goings-on in the immediate neighbourhood.

Historically, it has been seen in case of tension with Nepal – usually the sleuths prevail over the diplomats. This is, perhaps, one instance when both establishments worked in tandem with Sushma Swaraj’s quiet backstage diplomacy. They all stuck to strategy – ignoring both political and media pressure. Gradually voices of reason started surfacing even in Nepal – just as Kathmandu high-society got busy with their winter lunches and or took off for holidays to more comfortable climes abroad and the new political top brass (Nepal has 6 Deputy PM’s) got over the initial euphoria and began to understand the futility of posturing.

It is common knowledge that the people in the valley look down upon the Madhesis with disdain and a touch of contempt – considering them to be encroachers and “half-Indians”. But, yet Nepal knows without Madhes, it can’t be a viable economic and political entity (as most industry and agriculture is concentrated in the plains, which also serves to connect different regions of the hilly terrain, which are otherwise not easily accessible). While the bogey of “Sikkimisation” of Nepal by India is routinely raised – in their hearts the wise Nepali understands the risks of “Tibetisation” are greater – if they were indulge in unmindful flirting with China.   Finally, it would be naive of them to believe India (and, indeed, other international interests) would remain aloof to what’s happening in this very strategic stretch of land.

Relations between Nepal and India will always remain “complicated”. It is said Nepalis love everything Indian except Indians.  While India can’t afford to treat Nepal as another state of India, Nepal too can’t forget the 2 countries are joined at the hips and can’t do without each other – sibling sentimentality.

Parallels are drawn with another alleged “blockade” in the late 80s – which people simplistically believe was a consequence of the spouse of a late Minister not being allowed entry in Pashupatinath Temple. This time around it was a game of ‘brinkmanship’ of who blinks first. Probably, there would have been a much earlier resolution of the impasse – had it not been such a young government with a motley leadership at the helm still trying to find their equilibrium. India did well to stay its course – with an outcome that will hopefully be remembered in the long run in a more positive light  – if not by all – a large section of Nepali people.

Also Read: It's not India Vs Nepal but Kathmandu Elite Vs Madhesis (Click here) 

                 Nepal isn't the most beautiful state of India (Click here)

It's not Nepal Vs India but Kathmandu Elite Vs Madhesis

Kathmandu can ignore Madhes at its own peril

One of the most striking element of the recent change of guard in Nepal, after the promulgation of the new Constitution, is once arch enemies - the 'Royalist' (RPP-N) and Maoists (UCPN-M) joined forces to elect K P Oli of CPN-UML as Prime Minister trouncing Sushil Koirala of Nepali Congress - the latter generally perceived to be "India Friendly" and sympathetic towards the Madhesi cause. It is ironical - to say the least - RPP-N went to the elections with Pro-Hindu and Pro-Monarchy slogans the very principles that Maoists had fought against. Power they say is the ultimate glue - but here the prime motivation seems to have been keeping Indian influence at bay.

Thus India appeared   outmanoeuvred and its  concerns on the new constitution - especially the interests of the Madhesis (the inhabitants of the southern plains of Terai adjoining India) were ignored.  The last ditch effort of the Foreign Secretary to salvage the situation were rebuffed and the Constituent Assembly went ahead to promulgate the new Constitution as per the original draft. The rearguard actions that many believe India prompted - resignation  of  Baburam Bhattarai, the second most important leader and principal ideologue of the Maoists  and Sushil Koirala's hurried introduction of Constitution amendment proposals before the Constituent Assembly was dissolved - were seen as too little too late.

Critics at home and abroad were quick to view this as a snub to the Modi Government. Hasty judgements were pronounced on Modi governments faltering neighbourhood strategy following the initial hope and hype. The recently strained relationship with Maldives was cited as a parallel.

India's equation with Nepal has been and will always be - different and cannot be compared with that of any other neighbour. While they can't be called 'frenemies' - India is a neighbour Nepalis love to hate. And, India - to use the clichéd 'elder brother' analogy  - likes to  believe it knows what's best for Nepal.  This relationship of sibling sentimentality is age old and cannot be easily changed.

There is too much at stake for both countries  - geographically, emotionally (socially), economically and diplomatically - to remain disengaged for long. So if both the countries have an open border and a linked fixed conversion rate currency - it is not as a matter of choice but one of logical necessity. Apart from everything else, India will always remain Nepal's largest market for employment as well for products manufactured in or routed through Nepal (via official or unofficial channels).

Nepalese understand this well even while playing the "China Card'. Therefore, notwithstanding their public posturing and grand-standing in media - Nepali politicians  rush to Delhi at the slightest sign of tension.

But, that does not stop them from periodically raising the bogey of the ''Indian Hand" and the scary spectre of Sikkim-isation of Nepal (however, improbable). Burning of Indian Flag or effigies of Indian Prime Ministers is par for the course. This many see as a clever way of ensuring that Nepal's engagement with India is at their convenience.

All major political movements of Nepal in recent years have been at least partly hosted - by default or otherwise - in India. Both the ''Jan-Andolan I'' of 1990 (which replaced  absolute Monarchy with Constitutional Monarchy) and ''Jan-Andolan 2'' of 2006 -  that overthrew Gyanendra's brief tryst with ''Direct Rule'' (staging a "Royal Coup" as it were - taking advantage of the political instability caused by the Maoist War) were ''mid-wifed'' by India. Similarly, it is no state secret that, the Maoist movement underwent a surrogate pregnancy in the fertile Indo-Gangetic plains and many Maosist leaders frequently operated out of Indian "safe-houses".

India's imprint was unmistakable in the interim Constitution that of 2007 - after the elimination of Monarchy and establishment of the Republic, It was widely considered a progressive and inclusive document - which the incumbent Constituent Assembly would  only improve upon.

In the protracted exercise that followed lasting almost 7 - the new Nepali lawmakers came up with a document that was good in parts, but conspicuously short-changing the 'plains people' - Madhesis, Jan-jatis and Tharus - virtually dismembering of the region by a vertical dissection of the provinces dramatically reducing their 'Direct Representation' in Parliament.

The political intent of such a retrograde move was not difficult to gauge.  Historically  the hills people (especially the Royalty, Ranas and Upper Classes of Kathmandu) have been scornful towards the Madhesis - viewing them as "half-Indians" much like illegal immigrants. However, over time Madhesis have emerged as a very large constituency and  at the end of the "Maoist War"  - which they had solidly backed - and a political force that could at some stage challenge the dominance of the Kathmandu political nobility.  Cutting the Madhesis to size would, therefore, mean limiting India's influence as well.

This is where probably the Nepali politicians overplayed their hand or as some would go to the extent of saying - tried to be "clever by half". As should have been anticipated, this set the Terai ablaze in an agitation that has already claimed many lives. Then there is the infamous blockade - which Nepalis believes has been imposed (or, at least, inspired) by India to choke them of essential supplies.

The Kathmandu political and intellectual elite (yes, Nepal has its own version of Lutyens' power figures) are pitching this as a 'Nepal Vs India' stand-off. Luckily not everyone in Nepal are inclined to take such a blinkered position. Many respected voices - who can't be dismissed as Indian ''agents'', are speaking up on the inequities of the new constitution and also for the cause of the plains people.

While fingers are being pointed at recent ''mismanagement'' - alleging India had got its eye off the ball temporarily from its backyard - given other global diplomatic distractions. - I would venture to suggest the damage  was already done in the 2013 elections - which fractured the Madhesi mandate with various splinter groups emerging in the region. The Indian establishment could have engaged more proactively at that stage and use its considerable influencing and persuasion powers  to see the Madhesi block remained intact to have adequate representation in the new Constituent Assembly. India failed to chaperone to its logical end the journey it was privileged to flag-off in 2006.

It is debatable whether an earlier intervention would have had an impact given the fact that the major political parties were moving as per a well aligned plan. Whether India is tacitly supporting or silently stoking these protests is a subject for another day's debate. But, this strategy of passive stand-off - is, perhaps, the best India could do in the present circumstances without taking any other precipitating steps.

Obviously, a lot of posturing taking place - with the Madhesi leadership threatening an extended battle. While I do not subscribe to the extreme position that the contempt of the erstwhile Royalty and the post-democracy political nobility for Madhesis - as that of West Pakistanis towards the erstwhile East-Pakistanis, Madhes is definitely a distinct and sizeable ethno-geographic entity that can be alienated only at Nepal's own peril.

Without the Terai, Nepal can't be a viable economic entity. It is the most productive region of the country with the majority of the country's industries. Agriculture . The main trade corridor of the country stretches from Biratnagar in the East to Nepalgunj. Whether - Tourism, Gorkha pensions and remittances of Nepalis working abroad and, of course, Foreign Aid will be able to sustain the hills economy is a question only Lord Pashupati may be able to answer. Without access through the Terai - the rest of Nepal would become only more 'land-locked' - as many areas of the hills can be accesses only by air, arduous treks or via Terai.

As a very senior retired Nepal hand  of the Indian government - who must remain unnamed - wrote to me in a private response to another article::

"While unfortunate, it may have provided the bahun leadership of the three parties a reality check - even as they were all set to ride roughshod over the Madhesis- women, Janjatis and Tharus. History may well judge that at the cost of some popularity, India acted as a welcome catalyst". 

In the same vein, Nepali Congress' decision to contest - albeit unsuccessfully - both the posts of  Prime Minister and President is significant - as it signals there is an alternative viewpoint within the Parliament.

It would be a major political miscalculation by Nepal to believe India can remain aloof or staved off from  developments in a strategically important stretch contiguous with its heartland. It would also be disingenuous to term India's interest in ensuring a fair-deal for the people in the Terai planes as 'hegemonic,' interference. 

In that direction, Nepal's new Deputy Prime Minister Kamal Thapa's visit to Delhi - without waiting for ''who blinks first'' - has at least opened up a window for breaking the impasse. Even after Monday's unfortunate denouement at Raxaul - when one person of Indian origin was killed and several injured in police action - Thapa's reactions were encouraging. He is one person in the ruling establishment who has roots in the Terai - being an MP from Makwanpur.  Hopefully, all stakeholders will soon get back to the table to rewrite a solution that will stand the test of time. Years down the line - the blockade will probably be remembered only as a minor blip in an old familial affair.

Article originally published in +Swarajya  Click here to read