It's not Nepal Vs India but Kathmandu Elite Vs Madhesis

Kathmandu can ignore Madhes at its own peril

One of the most striking element of the recent change of guard in Nepal, after the promulgation of the new Constitution, is once arch enemies - the 'Royalist' (RPP-N) and Maoists (UCPN-M) joined forces to elect K P Oli of CPN-UML as Prime Minister trouncing Sushil Koirala of Nepali Congress - the latter generally perceived to be "India Friendly" and sympathetic towards the Madhesi cause. It is ironical - to say the least - RPP-N went to the elections with Pro-Hindu and Pro-Monarchy slogans the very principles that Maoists had fought against. Power they say is the ultimate glue - but here the prime motivation seems to have been keeping Indian influence at bay.

Thus India appeared   outmanoeuvred and its  concerns on the new constitution - especially the interests of the Madhesis (the inhabitants of the southern plains of Terai adjoining India) were ignored.  The last ditch effort of the Foreign Secretary to salvage the situation were rebuffed and the Constituent Assembly went ahead to promulgate the new Constitution as per the original draft. The rearguard actions that many believe India prompted - resignation  of  Baburam Bhattarai, the second most important leader and principal ideologue of the Maoists  and Sushil Koirala's hurried introduction of Constitution amendment proposals before the Constituent Assembly was dissolved - were seen as too little too late.

Critics at home and abroad were quick to view this as a snub to the Modi Government. Hasty judgements were pronounced on Modi governments faltering neighbourhood strategy following the initial hope and hype. The recently strained relationship with Maldives was cited as a parallel.

India's equation with Nepal has been and will always be - different and cannot be compared with that of any other neighbour. While they can't be called 'frenemies' - India is a neighbour Nepalis love to hate. And, India - to use the clichéd 'elder brother' analogy  - likes to  believe it knows what's best for Nepal.  This relationship of sibling sentimentality is age old and cannot be easily changed.

There is too much at stake for both countries  - geographically, emotionally (socially), economically and diplomatically - to remain disengaged for long. So if both the countries have an open border and a linked fixed conversion rate currency - it is not as a matter of choice but one of logical necessity. Apart from everything else, India will always remain Nepal's largest market for employment as well for products manufactured in or routed through Nepal (via official or unofficial channels).

Nepalese understand this well even while playing the "China Card'. Therefore, notwithstanding their public posturing and grand-standing in media - Nepali politicians  rush to Delhi at the slightest sign of tension.

But, that does not stop them from periodically raising the bogey of the ''Indian Hand" and the scary spectre of Sikkim-isation of Nepal (however, improbable). Burning of Indian Flag or effigies of Indian Prime Ministers is par for the course. This many see as a clever way of ensuring that Nepal's engagement with India is at their convenience.

All major political movements of Nepal in recent years have been at least partly hosted - by default or otherwise - in India. Both the ''Jan-Andolan I'' of 1990 (which replaced  absolute Monarchy with Constitutional Monarchy) and ''Jan-Andolan 2'' of 2006 -  that overthrew Gyanendra's brief tryst with ''Direct Rule'' (staging a "Royal Coup" as it were - taking advantage of the political instability caused by the Maoist War) were ''mid-wifed'' by India. Similarly, it is no state secret that, the Maoist movement underwent a surrogate pregnancy in the fertile Indo-Gangetic plains and many Maosist leaders frequently operated out of Indian "safe-houses".

India's imprint was unmistakable in the interim Constitution that of 2007 - after the elimination of Monarchy and establishment of the Republic, It was widely considered a progressive and inclusive document - which the incumbent Constituent Assembly would  only improve upon.

In the protracted exercise that followed lasting almost 7 - the new Nepali lawmakers came up with a document that was good in parts, but conspicuously short-changing the 'plains people' - Madhesis, Jan-jatis and Tharus - virtually dismembering of the region by a vertical dissection of the provinces dramatically reducing their 'Direct Representation' in Parliament.

The political intent of such a retrograde move was not difficult to gauge.  Historically  the hills people (especially the Royalty, Ranas and Upper Classes of Kathmandu) have been scornful towards the Madhesis - viewing them as "half-Indians" much like illegal immigrants. However, over time Madhesis have emerged as a very large constituency and  at the end of the "Maoist War"  - which they had solidly backed - and a political force that could at some stage challenge the dominance of the Kathmandu political nobility.  Cutting the Madhesis to size would, therefore, mean limiting India's influence as well.

This is where probably the Nepali politicians overplayed their hand or as some would go to the extent of saying - tried to be "clever by half". As should have been anticipated, this set the Terai ablaze in an agitation that has already claimed many lives. Then there is the infamous blockade - which Nepalis believes has been imposed (or, at least, inspired) by India to choke them of essential supplies.

The Kathmandu political and intellectual elite (yes, Nepal has its own version of Lutyens' power figures) are pitching this as a 'Nepal Vs India' stand-off. Luckily not everyone in Nepal are inclined to take such a blinkered position. Many respected voices - who can't be dismissed as Indian ''agents'', are speaking up on the inequities of the new constitution and also for the cause of the plains people.

While fingers are being pointed at recent ''mismanagement'' - alleging India had got its eye off the ball temporarily from its backyard - given other global diplomatic distractions. - I would venture to suggest the damage  was already done in the 2013 elections - which fractured the Madhesi mandate with various splinter groups emerging in the region. The Indian establishment could have engaged more proactively at that stage and use its considerable influencing and persuasion powers  to see the Madhesi block remained intact to have adequate representation in the new Constituent Assembly. India failed to chaperone to its logical end the journey it was privileged to flag-off in 2006.

It is debatable whether an earlier intervention would have had an impact given the fact that the major political parties were moving as per a well aligned plan. Whether India is tacitly supporting or silently stoking these protests is a subject for another day's debate. But, this strategy of passive stand-off - is, perhaps, the best India could do in the present circumstances without taking any other precipitating steps.

Obviously, a lot of posturing taking place - with the Madhesi leadership threatening an extended battle. While I do not subscribe to the extreme position that the contempt of the erstwhile Royalty and the post-democracy political nobility for Madhesis - as that of West Pakistanis towards the erstwhile East-Pakistanis, Madhes is definitely a distinct and sizeable ethno-geographic entity that can be alienated only at Nepal's own peril.

Without the Terai, Nepal can't be a viable economic entity. It is the most productive region of the country with the majority of the country's industries. Agriculture . The main trade corridor of the country stretches from Biratnagar in the East to Nepalgunj. Whether - Tourism, Gorkha pensions and remittances of Nepalis working abroad and, of course, Foreign Aid will be able to sustain the hills economy is a question only Lord Pashupati may be able to answer. Without access through the Terai - the rest of Nepal would become only more 'land-locked' - as many areas of the hills can be accesses only by air, arduous treks or via Terai.

As a very senior retired Nepal hand  of the Indian government - who must remain unnamed - wrote to me in a private response to another article::

"While unfortunate, it may have provided the bahun leadership of the three parties a reality check - even as they were all set to ride roughshod over the Madhesis- women, Janjatis and Tharus. History may well judge that at the cost of some popularity, India acted as a welcome catalyst". 

In the same vein, Nepali Congress' decision to contest - albeit unsuccessfully - both the posts of  Prime Minister and President is significant - as it signals there is an alternative viewpoint within the Parliament.

It would be a major political miscalculation by Nepal to believe India can remain aloof or staved off from  developments in a strategically important stretch contiguous with its heartland. It would also be disingenuous to term India's interest in ensuring a fair-deal for the people in the Terai planes as 'hegemonic,' interference. 

In that direction, Nepal's new Deputy Prime Minister Kamal Thapa's visit to Delhi - without waiting for ''who blinks first'' - has at least opened up a window for breaking the impasse. Even after Monday's unfortunate denouement at Raxaul - when one person of Indian origin was killed and several injured in police action - Thapa's reactions were encouraging. He is one person in the ruling establishment who has roots in the Terai - being an MP from Makwanpur.  Hopefully, all stakeholders will soon get back to the table to rewrite a solution that will stand the test of time. Years down the line - the blockade will probably be remembered only as a minor blip in an old familial affair.

Article originally published in +Swarajya  Click here to read

Book Review - The Great Indian Rope Trick: Complexity of Indian Democracy

The great Indian Rope Trick – does the future of democracy lie with India

Roderick Matthews

Pages 378; Price Rs 599

Hachette India

At the start one should make a disclosure. Roderick Matthews’ great grand-father was the private tutor of Jawaharlal Nehru and his wife the Governess of his sisters.  But, this is not to mean Matthews’ views are coloured by his connections with the Nehru family.  His is essentially a student of modern history specialising on India and if one may still use the old term “sub-continent’’.

It was important to set that background to give an idea of the author’s approach to the book. This is not yet another glib commentary on India’s post-independence history leading up to the epic elections of 2014. He takes a much a longer view and starts not just with the ‘’colonial beginnings’’ of Indian democracy but even its philosophical roots in “Dharma, Injustice and Pragmatism’’.  He takes in his sweep the evolution of Democracy in entire South Asia – Pakistan, Nepal, Sri Lanka, Bangladesh and Myanmar.

The essential thesis of Matthews’ work is – Democracy in India has survived 67 years but is not a ‘’done deal’’.  In this time – it has witnessed a series of extraordinary events which has ‘’conferred a certain wisdom’’ – but could enfeeblement, retirement or senility be on the horizon, he asks? In doing so he has tried to examine the various threats to Indian Democracy : social (sexual violence, Khaps and the inevitable caste and religion) , political (Maoists, Separatist and Secessionist Movements) and Security (Terrorism), Economic disparities  and Corruption  and even Judiciary (backlog of cases  and  compromise by the senior judiciary).  But in doing so, he gets mired in the sheer complexity that is India.

In the ultimate analysis Matthews feels – like most do – Indian democracy for all its shortcomings is a success, even a triumph – discounting any concerns about creeping dictatorship. India is a country that has lived (and experimented) with democracy while retaining great many of its traditional social features.  The deficiencies if any are more of ‘’practice’’ (in certain specific areas – touched upon before ) but not of ‘’principle’’. He concludes – democracy contains (and even relies on) a large element of positive illusion – which he compares with the “The Great Indian Rope-trick’’.

Roderick Matthews is no Simone Denyer or Edward Luce. This is a work not of a political journalist but a scholar. Therefore, the book might be a bit out of reach for a lay reader but, perhaps, a little short of depth for a seasoned political scientist.

Review first published in Business Today Magazine, issue of April 26, 2015

3 Wise Men......

A hospital – no matter how plush – is not the most exciting place to spend the better part of a week. Any amount of flirting with the docile “Mallu” nurses (no offence meant – some of my best women friends have been from that southern-most region of our land) or the pretty dietician can uplift the spirit.

But, it isn't so much the after-effects of my tryst with a female of the wrong species (‘Aedes’ as distinct from ‘Anopheles’ – yes, I am down with Dengue and not Malaria !!), what I am forced to watch on prime time television every single day that's making me depressed.

…. a virgin ??

There is an unkind joke about why Christmas is not such a popular festival in Delhi. That’s because, it is difficult to find 3 wise men and a virgin in the capital city. While I have no authority to comment on the latter (tho’ not too long ago Matrimonial Columns - of what was then proudly proclaimed as Delhi’s “Best Punjabi Newspaper in English” - used to be replete with ads of “5 figure earning businessman looking for a beautiful virgin”), watching the debates on TV I would tend to believe the former. It is always the same set of the – so called – commentators, party “spokespersons”, self-styled citizens champions and an ubiquitous ‘ad-man’ who hop from channel to channel holding forth on issues as diverse as Kashmir, corruption, Rail accident, the Maoist menace, cricket, floods, rail accidents and even gay rights. If that is an index of the collective intellectual capital of the country – then God save us all.

What’s irking me the most is, people who I would like to hear most on these subject – the Prime Minister being foremost among them - are maintaining a deafening silence. The Congress spokesperson tried to justify his reticence the other day saying – if he is not making statements in public doesn’t mean he is not talking through other channels. I cannot think of an Obama, Cameron or even the otherwise flippant Sarkozy keeping mum if a crisis like Kashmir or a CWG scam were to happen in their countries. While the latter would have certainly invited the proverbial ‘kick-ass’ response, they’d be taken to the cleaners by the media and the public - with their popularity ratings plummeting - if they didn’t voice their concerns, tried to reach out to the affected people and assure the country at large about effective steps being put in place to tackle the situation.

Karan Thapar has written a beautiful piece in last Sunday’s HT – Silent Shame in which he makes this point rather tellingly thru the voice of his pet dog Pertie (to read click here)

when silence tells a thousand words


This policy of studied silence reminds me of what used to be said about Narasimha Rao’s : “No decision is also a decision”. Tho' it's co-incidental that MMS was his Finance Minister - the similarities don’t end there. By all accounts, corruption has acquired epic proportions under the UPA as it had in the Narasimha Rao regime which was largely considered to be the first era of reforms. To me having a squeaky clean PM (who would make the legendary wife of Caesar blush by his high standards of integrity) is of little value if under his watch we have purveyors of large-scale corruption.

Political scientists teach us that, good governance and good politics are not necessarily peas of the same pod. It may be argued that, corruption is only a topic of cocktail conversation for the urban elite and the masses couldn’t care less about it. The same, I am afraid, can’t hold true for price rise and development. It’s all very well for the Finance Minister to justify Inflation on the back of Economic Growth in his Parliament speech and the same to be parroted ad-nauseam by his less fecund junior colleagues in the party seeking their 2 minutes of limelight on national television.


There is a rather cynical school of thought that, the government can afford to be blasé because there are no major elections in sight. If that were so, then it is indeed a sad commentary on our national leadership. But, somehow – in my layman’s view (literally, lying in the hospital bed), I don’t think this going to cut ice for much longer even with their “aam-admi” vote-bank. There may be a silent momentum gathering - that is not yet visible to the untrained commoners’ eye. It is only a matter of time before this seething anger boils over as a groundswell of public opinion. That’s when, they too will have to start seriously worrying about corruption and price rise.

If the glaring disparity between Hyderabad and the rest of Andhra could be the cause of undoing of the Chandrababu Naidu government – the sharp contrast of Delhi (both pre and post CWG) with the rest of the country ( including even the other metro-cities with their crumbling civic infra-structure ) could raise similar issues of lop-sided development at a national level with certain regions developing at the (perceived) expense of others.

the "Price" of National Pride

I am not a Leftist in either thought or temperament. But, I do feel that, had the money being spent on the Commonwealth Games (Rs 50,000 – 80,000 crores – USD 10-15 billion going by various estimates) in the name of buying “National Pride” been spent on development of regions like Dantewada and Bastar, we would have been closer to solving the Maoist problem and that would have contributed much more to reinforcing our ‘national pride’ than any number of CWGs and Asian Games can do.

Overall, we are in for tough times ahead – double-digit growth projections notwithstanding.


In my mind, I have no doubt that this government too wants to tackle price rise, corruption, insurgency and even Kashmir. But the question is do they know and, more importantly, have the will to do what it takes ?



Foot-notes:

1)The visuals coming in from Leh shows foreign tourists joining the armed forces in rescue operations. Wonder whether there were also some Indian tourists among them or were they all queuing up at airport for the first available flight.

2) A few days ago I surprised to see in front-page of The Economic Times photographs of the former MOS of External Affairs and his wife-in-waiting at a private dinner event and wondered about its relevance to the readers of a financial newspaper. For the last 2 days I find - all leading TV channels beaming footages of the same couple’s pre-nuptial visit to the Ajmer Sharif. Obviously, I have got my news-sense all screwed up.