It's not Nepal Vs India but Kathmandu Elite Vs Madhesis

Kathmandu can ignore Madhes at its own peril

One of the most striking element of the recent change of guard in Nepal, after the promulgation of the new Constitution, is once arch enemies - the 'Royalist' (RPP-N) and Maoists (UCPN-M) joined forces to elect K P Oli of CPN-UML as Prime Minister trouncing Sushil Koirala of Nepali Congress - the latter generally perceived to be "India Friendly" and sympathetic towards the Madhesi cause. It is ironical - to say the least - RPP-N went to the elections with Pro-Hindu and Pro-Monarchy slogans the very principles that Maoists had fought against. Power they say is the ultimate glue - but here the prime motivation seems to have been keeping Indian influence at bay.

Thus India appeared   outmanoeuvred and its  concerns on the new constitution - especially the interests of the Madhesis (the inhabitants of the southern plains of Terai adjoining India) were ignored.  The last ditch effort of the Foreign Secretary to salvage the situation were rebuffed and the Constituent Assembly went ahead to promulgate the new Constitution as per the original draft. The rearguard actions that many believe India prompted - resignation  of  Baburam Bhattarai, the second most important leader and principal ideologue of the Maoists  and Sushil Koirala's hurried introduction of Constitution amendment proposals before the Constituent Assembly was dissolved - were seen as too little too late.

Critics at home and abroad were quick to view this as a snub to the Modi Government. Hasty judgements were pronounced on Modi governments faltering neighbourhood strategy following the initial hope and hype. The recently strained relationship with Maldives was cited as a parallel.

India's equation with Nepal has been and will always be - different and cannot be compared with that of any other neighbour. While they can't be called 'frenemies' - India is a neighbour Nepalis love to hate. And, India - to use the clichéd 'elder brother' analogy  - likes to  believe it knows what's best for Nepal.  This relationship of sibling sentimentality is age old and cannot be easily changed.

There is too much at stake for both countries  - geographically, emotionally (socially), economically and diplomatically - to remain disengaged for long. So if both the countries have an open border and a linked fixed conversion rate currency - it is not as a matter of choice but one of logical necessity. Apart from everything else, India will always remain Nepal's largest market for employment as well for products manufactured in or routed through Nepal (via official or unofficial channels).

Nepalese understand this well even while playing the "China Card'. Therefore, notwithstanding their public posturing and grand-standing in media - Nepali politicians  rush to Delhi at the slightest sign of tension.

But, that does not stop them from periodically raising the bogey of the ''Indian Hand" and the scary spectre of Sikkim-isation of Nepal (however, improbable). Burning of Indian Flag or effigies of Indian Prime Ministers is par for the course. This many see as a clever way of ensuring that Nepal's engagement with India is at their convenience.

All major political movements of Nepal in recent years have been at least partly hosted - by default or otherwise - in India. Both the ''Jan-Andolan I'' of 1990 (which replaced  absolute Monarchy with Constitutional Monarchy) and ''Jan-Andolan 2'' of 2006 -  that overthrew Gyanendra's brief tryst with ''Direct Rule'' (staging a "Royal Coup" as it were - taking advantage of the political instability caused by the Maoist War) were ''mid-wifed'' by India. Similarly, it is no state secret that, the Maoist movement underwent a surrogate pregnancy in the fertile Indo-Gangetic plains and many Maosist leaders frequently operated out of Indian "safe-houses".

India's imprint was unmistakable in the interim Constitution that of 2007 - after the elimination of Monarchy and establishment of the Republic, It was widely considered a progressive and inclusive document - which the incumbent Constituent Assembly would  only improve upon.

In the protracted exercise that followed lasting almost 7 - the new Nepali lawmakers came up with a document that was good in parts, but conspicuously short-changing the 'plains people' - Madhesis, Jan-jatis and Tharus - virtually dismembering of the region by a vertical dissection of the provinces dramatically reducing their 'Direct Representation' in Parliament.

The political intent of such a retrograde move was not difficult to gauge.  Historically  the hills people (especially the Royalty, Ranas and Upper Classes of Kathmandu) have been scornful towards the Madhesis - viewing them as "half-Indians" much like illegal immigrants. However, over time Madhesis have emerged as a very large constituency and  at the end of the "Maoist War"  - which they had solidly backed - and a political force that could at some stage challenge the dominance of the Kathmandu political nobility.  Cutting the Madhesis to size would, therefore, mean limiting India's influence as well.

This is where probably the Nepali politicians overplayed their hand or as some would go to the extent of saying - tried to be "clever by half". As should have been anticipated, this set the Terai ablaze in an agitation that has already claimed many lives. Then there is the infamous blockade - which Nepalis believes has been imposed (or, at least, inspired) by India to choke them of essential supplies.

The Kathmandu political and intellectual elite (yes, Nepal has its own version of Lutyens' power figures) are pitching this as a 'Nepal Vs India' stand-off. Luckily not everyone in Nepal are inclined to take such a blinkered position. Many respected voices - who can't be dismissed as Indian ''agents'', are speaking up on the inequities of the new constitution and also for the cause of the plains people.

While fingers are being pointed at recent ''mismanagement'' - alleging India had got its eye off the ball temporarily from its backyard - given other global diplomatic distractions. - I would venture to suggest the damage  was already done in the 2013 elections - which fractured the Madhesi mandate with various splinter groups emerging in the region. The Indian establishment could have engaged more proactively at that stage and use its considerable influencing and persuasion powers  to see the Madhesi block remained intact to have adequate representation in the new Constituent Assembly. India failed to chaperone to its logical end the journey it was privileged to flag-off in 2006.

It is debatable whether an earlier intervention would have had an impact given the fact that the major political parties were moving as per a well aligned plan. Whether India is tacitly supporting or silently stoking these protests is a subject for another day's debate. But, this strategy of passive stand-off - is, perhaps, the best India could do in the present circumstances without taking any other precipitating steps.

Obviously, a lot of posturing taking place - with the Madhesi leadership threatening an extended battle. While I do not subscribe to the extreme position that the contempt of the erstwhile Royalty and the post-democracy political nobility for Madhesis - as that of West Pakistanis towards the erstwhile East-Pakistanis, Madhes is definitely a distinct and sizeable ethno-geographic entity that can be alienated only at Nepal's own peril.

Without the Terai, Nepal can't be a viable economic entity. It is the most productive region of the country with the majority of the country's industries. Agriculture . The main trade corridor of the country stretches from Biratnagar in the East to Nepalgunj. Whether - Tourism, Gorkha pensions and remittances of Nepalis working abroad and, of course, Foreign Aid will be able to sustain the hills economy is a question only Lord Pashupati may be able to answer. Without access through the Terai - the rest of Nepal would become only more 'land-locked' - as many areas of the hills can be accesses only by air, arduous treks or via Terai.

As a very senior retired Nepal hand  of the Indian government - who must remain unnamed - wrote to me in a private response to another article::

"While unfortunate, it may have provided the bahun leadership of the three parties a reality check - even as they were all set to ride roughshod over the Madhesis- women, Janjatis and Tharus. History may well judge that at the cost of some popularity, India acted as a welcome catalyst". 

In the same vein, Nepali Congress' decision to contest - albeit unsuccessfully - both the posts of  Prime Minister and President is significant - as it signals there is an alternative viewpoint within the Parliament.

It would be a major political miscalculation by Nepal to believe India can remain aloof or staved off from  developments in a strategically important stretch contiguous with its heartland. It would also be disingenuous to term India's interest in ensuring a fair-deal for the people in the Terai planes as 'hegemonic,' interference. 

In that direction, Nepal's new Deputy Prime Minister Kamal Thapa's visit to Delhi - without waiting for ''who blinks first'' - has at least opened up a window for breaking the impasse. Even after Monday's unfortunate denouement at Raxaul - when one person of Indian origin was killed and several injured in police action - Thapa's reactions were encouraging. He is one person in the ruling establishment who has roots in the Terai - being an MP from Makwanpur.  Hopefully, all stakeholders will soon get back to the table to rewrite a solution that will stand the test of time. Years down the line - the blockade will probably be remembered only as a minor blip in an old familial affair.

Article originally published in +Swarajya  Click here to read

Curfew, Ablutions and Sundry Rumours

Another old friend informs from Delhi, the banner headline in the ABP ( Ananda Bazar Patrika ) on Sunday read, "Jato Kando Shei Kathmandutei", an obvious play on the title of the Feluda tale by Satyajit Ray( Shall write about Ray's Rana connections some other day ) !

Three Kings in 4 days - that's quite a record. N.. is finally convinced that, her husband moves ahead of times. The curfew he had predicted on Saturday finally happened this ( Monday ) afternoon (Mercifully this time he missed the mark by just a couple of days - it's usually by a few centuries ). The "transition management" didn't quite work - in fact, in hindsight it might appear that the interregnum gave people more time to ruminate on the "conspiracy theory". Last evening, as Star News reported a seething build-up of tension , we thought this time round they were doing a "Zee" (i .e. over-sensationalising ) - notwithstanding the isolated incidents and burning of Indian newspapers in New Road. So when, The Nepalese Ambassador to India, Dr Bhek Thapa, appealed to the Indian Media to allow them "space" to come to terms with the tragedy - we wholly empathised with the feelings. If anything - the tragedy brought home the essentially traditional character of this society, which is often masked under a veneer of modernity. Though much of the expression of grief - the shaving of heads, the tearful participation in the funeral procession could have been prompted by group instincts, I know of many who did it genuinely on their own volition.
But, this morning - as the news of the death of the young Prince ( designated as King ) spread and the coronation was announced the pent-up emotions simply spilled over onto the streets. And, almost before we realised the curfew had already been declared by the afternoon. The cremation ceremony of the young King took even lesser time than that of his parents, as there was no lengthy procession through the city. It was all over by about 8 'O clock in the evening - this time marked by the presence of even fewer people, mostly from the Army , Ministers and Palace Officials. The Regent now appointed the new King addressed the Nation over Television and the Radio at 9. The announcement of an enquiry commission - comprising the Chief Justice, the Speaker of the Parliament and Leader of the Opposition, which would submit its report within the next 3 days, was a smart tactical move - even though some, like the Nepalese Correspondent of BBC, doubted what would come out of it. Leaders of different political parties and the Prime Minister came on air appealing to the people to restore calm in these difficult times.
Today was again a day of rumours. The news black-out is probably contributing to it. By the evening even Star and Zee News were taken off the air. Only the BBC and CNN remain. The last one to do the rounds is that the city water-supply has been poisoned. I guess we shall only get to know tomorrow morning. S.. has left strict instructions that, his bed-tea should be prepared only with bottled mineral water. Otherwise, it's a terrible thought of having to be carried away with a feeling of 'incomplete evacuation' of the bowels - which might interfere with the passage of the soul from the body, he firmly believes. ( That's if you didn't know about a good Bengali's obsession with his morning ablution ).

The Kingdom Mourns

A friend has written from Australia : " Ok, I know the Ghoses spread mayhem in their wake, but the current carnage is really too much. Where were U guys ? " S.. had returned from a quick trip to Hetauda earlier in the evening and we were out at a Friday-night dinner with some friends in Tahachal (near the Soaltee - actually quite close to the Army Hospital at Chaoni which was to be the scene for much of the action soon afterwards). The weather was just perfect - we all preferred to sit out, braving the mosquitoes with coils of tortoise under our feet, guzzling mugs of San-Miguel and downing tiny goblets of a lovely fruity bordeux, nibbling at very succulent pieces of a baby "Bandel" (Wild Boar - the highest Newari delicacy), commenting on how this year Kats didn't even have a summer. It was nearly 10' when Sophie and Prem arrived narrating how their little Indica was nearly bumped off the road by some crazy army jeeps. Next to arrive was Rohini who also mentioned that, he had seen a lot of army vehicles on the road . Still, we had no clue of any trouble . Around, 11 - Rohini received a call on his mobile from his BK of the Rads. He talked of rumours about some "serious" developments in the city - hinting probably of a Maoist attack somewhere. Rohini teased him of paranoia - saying he shouldn't take a chance of going back home that night and should sleep instead in his hotel and we all had a hearty laugh over it.
First news trickled in closer to midnight. Sanjib's web-site editor reported the death of Princess Shanti - the King's sister. So, we thought - that was it. But, almost immediately - Sophie received a call from her daughter saying that the Princess was probably "killed" in an attack by the Maoists, the city was very tense and we should all get home fast. The next minute someone else got the information that, there was a shoot-out or explosion in the palace. No one knew the details or what to believe but that's when we all decided to disperse and scrambled for our cars.
The route back home - through Kalimati, Tripureshwor, Bir-Hospital and Jamal - was remarkably peaceful - there was absolutely no signs of any trouble. Only near the Sundhara crossing , there was a rush of taxis - clearing out, what appeared to be, a crowd from a closing discotheque ( Dance & Dinner ) Bar. We deliberately took the route via Kantipath and the West Gate of the Palace. It was absolutely quiet. As we were reaching home in Baluwater, Anil who was following behind gave a ring on the mobile to say "It was all a silly hoax - seems like we have to get used to such false scares". But, the moment we entered the house - there was M… calling to tell what even the worst doomsday prophet could never have imagined in his wildest dreams. A quick check with Tharakkan-saar of the Embassy confirmed the worst had happened.
The rest of the night we didn't sleep a wink. The phone kept ringing incessantly. It was in some ways reminiscent of the night when Rajiv Gandhi was assassinated. Details kept getting added on in bits. Very soon the list of casualties had enlarged from just the King, Queen and the young price (Nirajan) to include even their daughter ( Princess Sruti ), his cousin ( Princess Jayanti - daughter of Princess Helen, owner of the Annapurna ), the King's other sister and her husband. Finally, only at 4 in the morning the news broke simultaneously on CNN & BBC and also came up on Kunda's website of Nepali Times. By then, there were also speculations of a possible emergency and a curfew being declared. Shalini called from Delhi to inform that Rakesh had moved in to the hotel with the boys and suggested that we should go there too. After speaking to Samir, we decided to shift with them to the Anna, as it was closer to home and the office - thinking that would be more convenient, just in case, we get stuck there for long. Besides, we felt it would be a good idea to keep the families and the kids together.
Nepal Radio and TV officially confirmed the news only at 1 ' O Clock on Saturday afternoon - after the Raj Parishad ( the Privy Council ) met and decided on the succession. The funeral procession with the cortege was scheduled to leave at 4 from the Chaoni Military Hospital for the Aryaghat at Pashupati, where the cremation would take place. In between, there was a little time for people to go in and pay their respect to the departed Majesties. We stayed in the hotel and watched the proceedings on TV. One was moved by the spontaneous but simple expression of grief of the thousands who joined the procession. The cremation ceremony - sans regalia - had a touch of austerity that made it even more heart-rendering. Under the arc lights of the TV cameras - Pashupati looked beautifully resplendent in a somber glow.