A new Mukul ready to blossom or will it be nipped in the bud

Though the tremors within the Trinamool are nowhere close to the implosion that seems to be brewing in Congress,  the under-currents are palpable. In this context, the optics surrounding Mukul Roy’s deposition before the CBI yesterday is very significant.

A keen observer of West Bengal politics told me in Delhi the other day – if CBI does not detain Mukul after the interrogation ( as they did in the case of Madan Mitra and others before this) it will be a greater cause of worry for the party than if he were to be arrested.  Exactly something like that seems to have happened.

It is a matter of speculation – why Mukul spent so much time in Delhi since summons were issued to him by the CBI – now almost 3 weeks back.  It’s also noteworthy – CBI themselves didn’t press for the deadline of  January 21st it had originally set and allowed him to take his own sweet time to appear before them.  If CBI was concerned about his tampering with evidence or influencing  potential witnesses – they should not have allowed that extra time (and, also allow him to leave after the interrogations  yesterday). Mukul  himself  hasn’t denied rumours about him meeting the  BJP brass in Delhi and some BJP leaders have also acknowledged that approaches for meetings at the top level were indeed made.

But, changing sides or jumping the ship cannot be the game-plan of a master strategist and “Mr Cool” like Mukul  Roy. For him a more potent weapon would be a veiled threat for leading a revolt in the party. And, that’s exactly the card he seems to be playing. For, BJP too a split within Trinamool (and possible subsequent alliance with the splinter faction) might work far better than direct defections. In this context – one must also take note of BJP first announcing the impending cross-over of a large TMC contingent at Amit Shah’s January 20^th rally in Burdawan and subsequently calling it off “for the time being”. It’s not difficult to guess – in case of a division – which way this lot is going to go.

Before and after yesterday’s CBI deposition Mukul’s messages were very clear and sharply defined. First, he was willing to cooperate with the investigation as he wants the “truth” to come out (contrary to the combative stand taken by the party). He himself has not done anything “anaitik” (improper or unethical – as distinct from “abaidha”or illegal).  The selective ‘leaks’ from CBI about what he has disclosed are also very significant.  In short, they can be interpreted as a “sneak preview” of  things that might  come later.  (“Kahaan Abhi Baaki Hain”..wait for the next episode). 

After he came out of the CBI Office (it seems he had indicated to his supporters while going in that he will not be kept beyond 4 PM and that’s exactly when he emerged) his supporters cheered him by name “Mukul Roy Zindabad” (not mentioning either Trinamool or the party supremo) and it seems they weren’t even carrying party flags.  Finally, came Mukul’s own statement – “had it not been for this day, I wouldn’t have realised how much the people of West Bengal love me”.  No ambiguity in what he wanted to say...”make no mistakes I have my own support base”.

Mukul Roy is regarded one of the shrewdest political brains and party organiser in Bengal of recent times – second only to, perhaps, the legendary CPIM State Politburo Secretary – the late Anil Biswas, to whom the Left owe much of their 30 years of reign.  While Trinamool’s rise have no doubt been due to Mamata’s crusading zeal and charisma – Mukul’s role in building the organisation from the grassroots is known to all. He has his key men placed in every district and ward, block and panchayat. He also controlled the party’s finances. It may not be an exaggeration to say he was to Mamata Banerjee what Amit Shah is to Modi.

Many question his allegedly dubious antecedents. But, the saying “There is no saint without a past and no sinner without a future”  - holds true for Politicians as well.  Especially, if there is the Hooghly close by to have a holy dip and wash away your sins.

Is a new “Mukul” ready to blossom in West Bengal this spring or will it be nipped in the bud as it were – the coming weeks will tell.

Article first published in www.dailyo.in click here to read

Green Shoots or Lotus Bloom in Bengal

[A PTI report says BJP’s membership drive has touched the 10 lakh mark in West Bengal]

In a recent Bengali film “Buno-Haansh”, a young boy from a middle-class home, that had seen better times – gets embroiled with a cross-border counterfeit currency smuggling ring.  In one scene, his Bangladeshi counterpart says:  “Had it not been for corruption on both sides of the border (Bangladesh and West Bengal) ordinary Bengalis like you and me would have starved to death”.  A telling comment on the economic condition of Bengal – lack of industry, employment and income opportunity.

A couple of weeks back I was travelling on the Darjeeling Mail to Siliguri. In the coupe were 2 young BSF (Border Security Force) Officers. One of them received a call from his base-station - reporting a skirmish at the border post the night before that could potentially flare-up. The train was running 5 hours late and he was troubled about not being able to reach the spot early. Even I was feeling holed up and bored. So we got chatting.

The young officers lamented – coming to the Eastern borders for them was like a “punishment” posting. In the Western frontiers the terms of engagement are clear and there is rarely any political interference or fall-out of actions taken in the regular course of duty. But, in the East everything is politically charged and “sensitive”. The high population density, close proximity of the settlements and diffused boundaries add to the complexity.  And, the buck stops with the security forces, which are always at the receiving end from all quarters – whether their administrative bosses in Delhi or local political goons.

In the cross-border transactions  that takes place – the locals are but small pawns. They act as couriers, herdsmen (for cattle) or mere facilitators – but their livelihood depends almost entirely on such illegal activities. The real people behind these operations are big fishes – businessmen and politicians who live many miles away - may be even in other parts of the country. For example, from the breed of the cattle one can easily make out  they are not local and transported from distant  Punjab, Haryana and Rajasthan in trucks across several inter-state borders – where they could have been easily intercepted – but no one does so  because it’s part of a large inter-state racket. The stakes in the cattle trade itself would be valued in millions of rupees. as imported cattle from India contribute significantly to Bangladesh’ GDP -  in  meat and leather trade both for domestic consumption and exports. Therefore,  any attempts to stop it is going to have huge economic,  political and even diplomatic repercussions and it is unlikely to change irrespective of whichever party is in power.

On illegal immigration – apparently agents have rack rates – from mere ration or election cards (now, probably Aadhar) to Passports. So much so, some ‘think-tanks’ believe it might be a better idea to issue “work-permits” to Bangladeshis to curb illegal immigration. But, either way they put further pressure on the already strained resources of the state – spawning more illicit business and, as some suspect, even terror conduits.

In the backdrop of such dire economic conditions – where there is very little value creation, if a Saradha did not happen it would probably have been invented. With rising cost of living and depleting income – the urban middle class and poor villagers were forced to liquidate inherited property and land.  Chit fund companies dipped into this fund – with the lure of unrealistic returns - duping them of their little remaining savings.

It is hard to believe two Finance Ministers of successive Governments - Ashim Dasgupta of the Left Front and Amit Mitra of Trinamool - both highly qualified Economists - didn’t see these scams taking place under their watch.  Young marketing executives travelling in rural areas were amazed to see army of collection agents employed by these Chit Fund companies to mobilize ‘deposits’.  Sucheta Dalal’s Money Life had carried a series of articles way back in – which was cited even in this humble blog.  (Read here) 

I agree with Mamata Banerjee on one count – that is, it’s not political parties alone that have benefited from the Saradhas of the world.  These Chit-Fund companies couldn’t have thrived without Media support and they were the main-stay of advertising for many local newspapers and TV channels.  For several years they were major sponsors of Durga Puja and Kali Puja in the state. So much so – they even reached out to the NRI Bengali community in overseas cultural festivals. Many ventured into film production as well.

But, undoubtedly most of the money went into political funding. If there are no Adanis or Ambanis – you needed a Sudipta Sen.  

So where does one go from here? Does the BJPs 10 lakh membership signify a new ray of hope? In ushering in Trinamool people also voted for change. But, after 5 years despondency has set in at least in urban Bengal.

When there is overall decline and decay – it’s difficult to isolate or insulate a few sections of the society from the rot.  Therefore, all institutions are beginning to fail. Once a centre of medical excellence – today a Bengali prefers to travel to Chennai, Vellore or Mumbai for treatment. Calcutta has long lost it pre-eminence in education and special trains are run to Bangalore and Pune in the college admissions season. The population of Bengali white-collar job-seekers has exponentially increased in other cities. One hears much more of Bengali on flights and shopping malls all over the country. Even in art and culture Bengal has long ceased to be in the forefront. The primary market for Bengal artists is also outside the state and abroad.

Calcutta has become a city of senior citizens. Youngsters who are left behind are wallowing in frustration and despair – many sinking into depression. Others either fall prey to nefarious activities like the protagonist in Buno-Haansh or join the gang of “tola-baaz” and local “syndicates” (hafta-collectors).

But, these very young  people when they  visit family members living outside Bengal or travel on vacations -  see how much the rest of India has moved ahead and long for a better life.  It is this sense of aspiration – especially of the younger generation – that Modi and BJP is trying to tap into.  But, whether this too turns out to be a chimera only time can tell.

For 40 years Bengal has chased a mirage. A senior journalist friend says Bengal politics has always been ruled by lumpens.  They only change their team “jerseys” from Red to Green and, which may probably turn to saffron in future.  In the 70s– when the “New Congress (Indira)” was on the ascendant there was a slogan  - “Chilam Naxal Holam, Nabo – Chakri Na Pele Abar Hobo “ (From Naxals – we have turned to Congress. But, if we don’t get the promised jobs – we will go back to our roots again).  So Green may change to Saffron – but only for a while if there is no economic regeneration. But, this time there will not be any more change in colour – the flower will just wither away and Bengal shall become a basket case beyond recovery.

Also read : Vote Bank Politics has come to stay in West Bengal

Article first published in @DailyO_ (click for link)

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