Can Modi afford to dump Jaitley ?

By attacking Arun Jaitley, Modi opponents trying to isolate him

Article first published in +DailyO India Today (Click here to read)

Delhi was rife with rumours about Arun Jaitley's imminent shift from the finance ministry before Budget making starts. Post the Bihar debacle as talks of a Cabinet reshuffle subsided - the chances of Jaitley's removal also receded. After all, with Amit Shah cut to size he remained the prime minister's strongest ally both in the party and the government. It is, perhaps, for this very same reason - Modi's detractors and Jaitley's foes took it upon themselves to do what Modi himself couldn't afford to at this juncture.

Much is being made of the prime minister's "will come out in flying colours" remark comparing Jaitley with Advani. Whether it was a subtle hint at resignation or not - it is significant that the PM broke his customary reticence on such matters. He has reasons to be worried - because the attackers were coming too close for comfort. After Shah and Jaitley, they could next take on Modi directly - as with these two strong lieutenants politically neutered - he would be quite lonely in Delhi. For all his moral grandstanding, Jaitley himself looked rather rattled - knowing he was directly in the line of fire. This is apparent not just in his filing the defamation suit against Kejriwal, but also in his accusation that Kirti Azad met Sonia Gandhi.

Although the ire of the BJP "old guard" and the "fallen-by-the-wayside" was at the collective entity that Arun Shourie called the "Trimurti" - it was Jaitley who they thought was the illegitimate usurper - even after losing his maiden Lok Sabha bid from Amritsar. It was a view that found support even from Modi supporters who felt Jaitley was the Lutyens' surrogate in NDA coming in the way of bold actions. Now, with Amit Shah having been eliminated by his own self-goal in Bihar, Jaitley was easy for the picking.

It may not be a coincidence that the three major scandals to rock the Modi government - that put Sushma Swaraj, Vasundhara Raje and, now, Jaitley, in the life of fire - had something to do with cricket. Vasundhara and Sushma could have been targeted on many issues, but for Jaitley, cricket is, perhaps, the Achilles Heel that opponents were smart enough to latch onto.

The rivalry between Jaitley and Swaraj is one of Delhi's worst kept secrets and has been well documented by some senior journalists. Many, therefore, believed "Lalit-gate" could have been inspired by the Jaitley camp to put Swaraj and Raje on the mat. Lalit Modi didn't pull his punches even then.

Like many in the BJP today Jaitley owed his rise in BJP to Advani - who had appointed him party spokesperson that gave him a national profile. However, post Advani's Jinnah faux pas, he was quick to jettison him and also one of the early Delhi entrants into the Modi camp. While Advani's protégée - Sushma Swaraj - was dithering to accept Modi as PM candidate, Jaitley had decidedly crossed the Rubicon.

The interesting pattern that is emerging now is the anti-Jaitley axis, which seems to be cutting across party lines in reverse trajectory from AAP to Congress and now finally coming home to Advani's residence. It's easy to dismiss this as transient opportunism, though irony dies when Congress spokespersons and Kejriwal accuse BJP of lacking inner-party democracy and shooting the messenger. The truth could run deeper. The "enemy" may have penetrated the inner ranks of the BJP. By eliminating Jaitley and Shah they are hoping to isolate Modi, forcing him to fend for himself. This may be a high-risk strategy - as one can't predict how Modi will react.

So one is waiting with bated breath to see what Modi does on his return from Russia and Afghanistan - whether he'll choose to cut his losses by jettisoning Jaitley or declare war by consolidating his ranks for a fight to finish.

India after AAP

The year 2014 was, perhaps, the second major watershed in post-independence India’s political history after 1977. For many political scribes of the current generation it will probably remain as the most memorable year of their career. That many of them would, therefore,  feel the urge to chronicle it as ‘instant history’ – spawning a new “Read My Book’’ genre of Indian journalism – is quite understandable. Both Ashutosh’ and Saba Naqvi’s books can be broadly classified under this category.

The first, by Ashutosh – the journalist turned activist-politician and AAP leader - has a wider sweep covering Narendra Modi’s incredible run to the Prime Minister’s office and the parallel narrative on the rise of AAP and Arvind Kejriwal. It is a flash-back or recap of events as they unfolded over 15 odd months – filling in the missing bits from his reporter’s diary supplemented with insights of an experienced political journalist.

Ashutosh is candid in admitting, he conceived the book as a journalist but by the time he finished it he had became a politician. Not surprisingly, the lines do get blurred in-between.  Thus, in a way, it is also Ashutosh’ own journey from the sets of TV Studios to the amphitheatre of politics. To his credit, Ashutosh doesn’t try to hide his political leanings and the fact that he became personally close to Arvind Kejriwal and some of his colleagues much before he joined AAP. On occasions he would even advise them on how to tackle tricky media issues (revealing Kejriwal’s high degree of dependence on and feeling of vulnerability to media). This, of course, raises the question of how Ashutosh was able to maintain his objectivity and the troubling issue of journalists consciously or unconsciously crossing the professional line and becoming a part of the political game.

Ashutosh’ description and analysis of the transformation Chief Minister Modi to Prime Minister Modi is riveting. Of course, it would be unrealistic to expect a totally balanced perspective once he takes the plunge into real politics – but it is for us readers to take it with, as they say in recipe books, a measure of salt as per one’s (political) taste.

Ashutosh clearly believes the outcome of the 2014 elections could have been very different hadn’t Kejriwal scored a ‘self-goal’ by resigning as Chief Minister. Indeed, as Ashutosh points out, many thought had Kejriwal continued as CM of Delhi – AAP might have garnered enough seats in the Lok Sabha to play ‘King-Maker’ after the elections.

Ashutosh’ explanation of why he chose to leave journalism to join AAP is not very convincing, He too repeats AAP’s favourite allegation about Modi’s nexus with big business. But, by his own admission, there was no overt pressure from the owners of the network he worked for to toe any particular political line. Therefore, one cannot quite fathom why he was apprehensive about loss of editorial freedom (any more or less than what he enjoyed through his career till then).

If Ashutosh’ was an ‘inside-out’ account of how AAP evolved within the larger political churn in the country - Saba Naqvi could have easily named her book “The Short Official History of AAP” or, by a stretch ‘’The Authorised Political Biography of Arvind Kejriwal’’.  Right from the start it is abundantly clear that the ‘idea of AAP’ had captured her imagination as did the charismatic (what some others may have found ‘enigmatic’’) leadership of Arvind Kejriwal. At the same time, she makes no secret of her deep distaste for whatever BJP under Narendra Modi stood for. The Congress in any case had lost steam and direction. Even fringe parties like BSP no longer had even a marginal utility in Delhi circa 2015. Therefore, for her AAP was not just the best choice – but, perhaps, the only choice. Therein lies the rub.

Ms Naqvi calls it a ‘’Reporter’s Book’’ and no doubt she assiduously followed AAP’s evolution at every stage and each step – right from the days of Anna and IAC (Indian Against Corruption)  Rally in Jantar Mantar.  Through this journey she developed strong links with members of AAP’s core-team –  from whom she could glean intimate details of the party’s inner workings.  But, in doing so it might appear – she dropped her guard and has been too uncritical and unquestioning in her assessment. Outside, of AAP she plays-back very few voices of other political denominations – certainly none which are critical of AAP or Kejriwal. She does quote a few anonymous sources (mostly) of BJP but only to buttress her own views.

Ms Naqvi’s original proposition at the beginning of the book is ‘’AAP...moved on principle of income groups, its focus clearly on class and not castes or communities’’. Such a strategy is not borne out by AAP’s subsequent electoral tactics. She attributes BJP’s success to getting ‘’first past the post’’ – appealing to the middle class, richer sections of society and ‘’then getting a small section of the poor’’ to vote for it – while AAP worked with a bottom up the pyramid approach. However, many analysts felt AAP’s resounding success in the 2015 Delhi Polls – at least partly - came from their mastering the electoral arithmetic well.

Like many – Ms Naqvi was impressed by AAP’s initial promise of ‘’No Lal Batti (VIP)’’ culture. However, she doesn’t comment on the subtle change in position - in their second term – when AAP Ministers are not averse to accepting the frills and perks of office. She is easily touched by tokenism such as Kejriwal breaking out into a song at his ‘swearing in’ or bringing his wife to the AAP HQ, but is silent about Arvind Kejriwal’s perceived shift in style from being ‘’consultative’’ and ‘first among equals’ to the unquestioned leader (perhaps, not ‘autocratic’ or a ‘supremo’ as some of his detractors accuse him of) leader. In talking of AAP’s various innovative ideas of governance – such as ‘Participative Budget’ she doesn’t mention how Kejriwal went through the motions of ‘Moholla Referendums’ before forming government in Delhi but forgot to have similar public consultations before resigning.

Ms Naqvi is happy to accept AAP is a ‘volunteer’ based party (not very different from the cadres of Left parties or RSS Pracharaks) but workers also need to be paid. One would have expected a conscientious reporter to dig a little deeper into the controversies surrounding the funding of AAP. Equally, like Ashutosh, her  accusations of collusion between big business (alleged to own half of India media) and BJP/Modi are a bit sweeping. She talks about Kejriwal taking on the rich and the powerful (read Ambani and Adani) but is silent about the lack of follow-through, which gives the impression of a ‘shoot and scoot’ strategy.

Ms Naqvi very discerning in observing how Kejriwal changed the backdrop from Bharat Mata to Gandhi between Jantar Mantar and Ram Lila Maidan – as he began to distance himself from Anna. However, does not see a pattern (of using people as props and then discarding them) in which Kejriwal jettisons Yogendra Yadav and Prashant Bhushan as dead-weight. On the latter show-down, Ms Naqvi clearly sides with Kejriwal, though to be fair she produces verbatim the exchange of correspondence between the 2 camps. In her judgement – “Kejriwal’s critics within the party would have been comfortable with..” a narrower win or even a defeat as ‘’that would have given them greater leverage’. Ms Naqvi believes it will be a minor blip in the history of AAP. She may well be correct.

Though a tad bit too generous in saying Kejriwal combines ‘Gandhian piety’ with ‘pragmatic solutions’, she concludes - not having an ideological baggage (and intellectual arrogance) liberates Arvind Kejriwal. She reminds us of the dialogue from Sholay - ‘Loha lohe ko kaatta hai’ Only time will tell if AAP, which she says is still ‘Work in Progress’ can redeem its promise of alternative politics. – just like Ashutosh’ question, with a little bit of temerity, which very few would dare ask – ‘how long will Modi last in his Chair ?’

PS: The review would be incomplete without commenting about the brilliant writing style of both the authors and excellent editing. In particular, Ashutosh’ book makes a very gripping and racy read – showing he’s perhaps more comfortable with long-form writing than 140 character tweets.

#Kejriwal #Aam Aadmi party #AAP #Saba Naqvi #Ashutosh #Modi #Narendra Modi

 First Published in Business Today India @BT_India *

*Click here for: Unabridged version in BT Web-Edition

Repackaging Lohia or Lenin won't get AAP far

  

More column centimetres and TV talk-time have been consumed in analysing the AAP victory in Delhi.  Probably, there will soon be a slew of book launches chronicling the rise of the common-man’s messiah Arvind Kejriwal.  Predictably – there is already talk of AAP spreading its wings to other parts of the country. Some feel – Mumbai is ripe for picking with a similar “urban revolution” and AAP should seriously target the BMC polls next year – while others think they will be better off prospecting in election bound Bihar and West Bengal.

Personally, I am sceptical of the national scalability of the AAP model   - especially under its present leadership and ideologues. It’s entirely possible, having surprised in Delhi they can always find the magic formula and pull off miracles in other parts of the country too.  However, with its roots in the IAC (India Against Corruption) Movement - AAP’s main plank so far has been anti-corruption (essentially at a petty level) and empowerment of the Aam Aadmi.  Whereas, BJP – under Modi has been playing the development and governance cards (the latter includes eliminating large-scale institutionalised corruption or scams as seen during the UPA regime). In my judgement, the 2 are somewhat different “positioning”, in political marketing terms, which may not hold equal appeal in all places and situations.

In an affluent city-state like Delhi – the concerns are more civic amenities, administration, law and order, petty corruption and cost of living. Development (“Vikas” as it were) though important is not an immediate crying need. People tired of the corrupt old political class wanted a breath of fresh-air. However, the same may not be the case in a state like West Bengal and Bihar – where people are desperately trying to cope with basic challenges of survival. There the crying need is economic development, employment and income generation opportunity - essentially call for a better future and standard of living. Issues like corruption – probably – come one step up on the Maslow hierarchy - when people are struggling to keep the body and soul together.

I found it telling,  in Delhi – the youth swung en-masse towards AAP. Come to think - this is the constituency that had overwhelmingly supported Modi in the Lok Sabha elections.  Throughout  his campaign – Modi was talking to the younger generation and even on the day of voting –  he tweeted urging  young voters to come out in large numbers. Vote they did – but not for his party. I would attribute this to the fact that – the younger generation in Delhi (whether they are locals or have come in from other parts of the country for education or employment) don’t have to worry about their next square meal. They are in Delhi because the city already offers them greater economic opportunity  than other places. Therefore, their concerns are different and of a higher order than their counterparts in Calcutta or Patna – when after completing school or college youngsters have to pack their bags for Delhi, Bombay , and Bangalore for higher education or in search of a job.

Bihar has already seen large-scale social re-engineering thanks to the Lohia-ites, though the jury is still out on whether Caste still prevails over development – in what is arguably the last remaining BIMARU state. But, in Bengal – the so called empowerment of the “proletariat” has no novelty factor.  People have seen a lot of it first under the Left Front and now under the Government of Ma, Mati and Manush. To them AAP will be yet another “peoples’ party” by a new name.  The ordinary Bengali is tired of slogans – they now wish to see delivery of real economic progress, industrialisation and employment – to secure the future of the next generation.

This is not to make a case for the rise of the BJP in West Bengal – especially after Mamata Banerjee has one 2 important by-polls with a thumping majority – quashing rumours of dissension within her party and disenchantment of voters.  It has also shown the Muslims are still unwilling to align with BJP. To make a decisive shift – BJP has to break into the core vote-bank of Trinamool, which won’t be easy.  

But, for AAP - to gain a toe-hold in Bengal or Bihar, it will have to radically reinvent itself. Merely repackaging Lohia or Lenin won’t get them too far.

Article first published in Swarajya: Click here to read

The final countdown..

So the campaigning has finally come to an end. Less than 24 hours for the Exit Polls to come out and 4 days for the results. What a journey it has been - not just for those in the fray, the organizers, workers, 'war-room' managers and those who covered it on the ground - but even the likes of me who followed it from the side lines and participated in the dialogue on social media.

Of course, Narendra Modi ran the "mother of all campaigns" in the history of Indian Elections - termed as the 'Maximum Campaign' and beautifully depicted in this graphic 

For the last leg the entire world descended on Varanasi - journalists national and foreign, political commentators and even academics from across the world. Sadanand Dhume, the WSJ journalist, quipped in a tweet to me:  

@SandipGhose Don't be surprised. An election like this comes once in a generation. @ProfVarshney

— Sadanand Dhume (@dhume) May 9, 2014

The credit for permanently changing the rules of the game has to go to one person - whether you like him or not - Narendra Modi. It was truly a 'watershed election' as everyone seemed to agree on Barkha Dutt's 'wrap-up show from Varanasi (watch video here)

The final outcome is not known yet and as some die-hard detractors of Narendra Modi are still hoping against hope that he'll falter at the finishing line (Read this post). Undoubtedly, it is yet a possibility - especially with practically all major political forces of the country lined up against him and even stalwarts of his own party being less than supportive (to put it mildly). Other than Arun Jaitley, Rajnath Singh and a few other second rung leaders - most other big names have been conspicuous by their silence and missing in action (from the campaign trail). But, the fact that he has come thus far is a "phenomenon". Today - it's virtually 'Modi Vs the Rest'. The single point agenda of all parties and leaders of any national standing is how to "STOP" Modi.

Less than a year ago I recall a popular political commentator) pooh-poohing the idea of BJP coming to power. This was in Bangalore and he supported his theory pointing out BJP is likely to draw a blank in Karnataka - the state that had sent the maximum number of BJP MPs in the last elections. Next, everyone came up with dooms-day predictions when Nitish broke-off with BJP over Modi. People said - BJP had axed their chances by giving up old allies. Then came the Advani, Sushma sulking episodes over Modi being appointed in-charge of the campaign Committee in Goa. Everyone went to town talking about the split wide-open within the party almost writing-off its chances. The rest is history now and can't bear repetition. Now, we can only wait for the results and watch how the drama unfolds over the next 4 days.

I for one was one of the early converts on Modi - though I wouldn't like to be counted (and, hope others don't) among the "Bhakts". I'm not blind to his faults and aware of the risks of someone so domineering coming to power. But, I do think - to use a cliche - India needs a strong leader to salvage it out of the mess that the Gandhi family's remote control government - guided only by the interest of ensuring the survival of the dynasty - has landed the country.

The way Modi has run this campaign shows he knows a thing or 2 about organisation and management. In creating a campaign on such a grand-scale he has displayed a vision that is beyond the imagination of any politician in this country - the troika of Mother, Son and Daughter included. He has been accused of being bank-rolled by corporates and engaging the best international PR agency. Even if the same resources were made available to any other party - be it AAP or Congress - none could created something this scale and impact.

Ridiculous arguments have been used as to why Modi is not fit to be PM - from his lack of 'social skills' to his poor facility in English. A case has been made out that - he takes false credit for the success of the "Gujarat Model" tho much of it was either legacy or is owed to the entrepreneurial traits of the Gujarati businessman. Even a first grade student of Management knows that it isn't easy to preserve what you inherit let alone grow it further unless you are particularly gifted. Further, I contest the theory - Modi isn't a team player. The greatness of a leader lies in gathering the talent around him and having the ability to sift their advise and come to the right decisions. If Modi didn't have the ability to do so - he wouldn't have been able to run Gujarat with such aplomb for 12 years or conceive and execute a campaign of this order.

But, the real success of #Modi lies elsewhere. This evening I was surprised to hear the buzz about him and BJP in the Bar of the Coonoor Club among the elite Tamil gentry spending their summer recess in the hills. More than the number of seats he brings to the BJP in the Hindi-heartland, what he'd have done for good is spreading the roots of BJP in areas where they were hitherto non-existent - eg West Bengal, South India and the North East. BJP may not Lok Sabha win many seats in Bengal but they would have sufficiently increased their vote share to be a force to reckon with in the coming Assembly Elections (read this piece by Abhijit Majumder of HT). And, if indeed, BJP forms the government at the centre with Modi at its helm - the equations could change drastically across the country.

But let's wait for a few days more.... till then : Aab Ki Bar Modi Sarkar